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人民币浮动
中国新实施的人民币浮动机制能够缓解与美国的紧张关系，但是可能将注意力转向他国。
Jun 24th 2010 | HONG KONG
中国的廉价商品可能破坏中美关系，即便这些商品是甜的。例如，本月早些时候，美国官员扣留了一批从中国运来的蜂蜜，因为其违反了食品安全标准。该蜂蜜含有一种用来治疗蜜蜂幼虫疫病的抗生素，这种疾病通常会感染蜜蜂幼虫。此次扣留得到了纽约民主党议员查尔斯•舒默的称赞，查尔斯谴责中国为“洗蜜者”。
但是蜂蜜并非导致两国产生分歧的最大问题。舒默以及许多其他国会议员也责难人民币，他们认为人民币币值被人为地压低了。他们一直敦促总统奥巴马对中国采取强硬的态度。6月16日，奥巴马致信给20国集团领导人，强调“市场决定的汇率对于全球经济活力至关重要”。许多人担忧6月26日至27日20国集团领导人在多伦多会晤时，心情都好不了。
巴基斯坦，印度及反核条约
中国提供给巴基斯坦核反应堆的交易曝露其伪善一面
Jun 24th 2010
一旦涉及核威胁的问题，朝鲜和伊朗总是牵动各方神经。前者无视核不扩散条约（NPT)，接连进行两次核试验；后者虽拒不承认研制核技术，在技术方面似有重大突破。塞尔维亚和缅甸是秘密接受朝鲜在核方面支持的头号怀疑对象。以色列虽缄口不提核弹的事，却早已在怀疑名单之列因而名誉蒙尘（如埃及所愿）。上月，埃及以不违反NPT审议为代价，迫使以色列加入核问题的谈判。
以色列成为典型，一时间拥有核武器的印度和巴勒斯坦也变为了千夫所指的对象。他们和以色列一样，既然没有加入NPT，其核建设也就不存在违规的问题。它们2最具威胁性的行为是在某处以最快的速度储备用于制造核弹的钚和铀。中国又签署合同，将两座民用核反应堆出售给蠢蠢欲动的巴基斯坦，更使巴基斯坦欲实行核扩散的事态明朗化。各国虽在朝鲜和伊朗问题上通力合作，而在以色列和埃及问题上各有分歧，无疑导致势态恶化。 继续阅读“伪善疑云”
上市还是倾覆？
巨额股票公开发行考验世界对中国的看法
Jun 10th 2010 | Hong kong
酝酿已久的中国农业银行股票公开发行正在市场风暴中起航。对于坚定看好中国的人来说，农行在一个具有高竞争壁垒的部门中拥有2 300万客户，这一点已足以保证其劈波斩浪，一往无前。其他人则认为让农行既缺乏明晰的记录，又没有迫切的资本需求，主动要求上市实属疯狂之举，暗中觉得这桩交易不可能成功。 继续阅读“中国农业银行”
紫禁城
睡美人
唤醒一座中国皇家珍宝，意味着扭转八十年的忽视局面
May 20th 2010 | BEIJING | From The Economist print edition
不再破败
中国修复古代建筑，总是拆除遗迹，然后简单地在原地建起外貌簇新的仿样，丝毫不理会原来的材料和做工。费尽心机修葺北京紫禁城的一座皇家园林能如此特别， 这就是原因之一。
花园对公众大致关闭逾八十载，其27座亭台楼阁及假山古树被紫禁城一位高级管理人员描述为“珍宝”——着实如此。修葺工作由自1925年接管紫禁城的故宫 博物院和总部设于纽约的海外非政府组织世界文化遗产基金会共同完成，此类合作可谓罕见。在广阔的皇城中，花园所占面积不足1%，但修复工作却为时近二十 年，预计到2019年才可完工，已经落后原计划三年。 继续阅读“睡美人”
中国经济数据
解读中国手相
一种新公布的中国经济领先指标。
May 20th 2010 | BEIJING | From The Economist print edition
在老北京的后巷中，算命先生在放大镜下观察其客人的手掌，查看其易经表，接着就用一只削得不尖的铅笔勾画出命脉。他说他的客人包括很多急于想进一步得知其 经济前景的生意人。 继续阅读“解读中国手相”
中国电动自行车迅猛发展
如火如荼的踏板
中国当局对机动脚踏车权衡利弊
May 13th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
在中国，当一辆辆电动自行车在沿人行道上疾驰而过时，行人通常表现出惊恐万分的神情。如今这个类似于制造脚踏车的行业已迅速而悄然地浮出水面，发展壮大， 然而大陆有关当局也似乎一直对此浑然不知：国内的（电动自行车）产量从10年前的不到一千辆发展到了去年的2200万辆，而将普通自行车改装成电动自行车 的工具也有几百万套。年销售额已约达110亿美元。如今，大陆中央政府却对这事突然关注起来—-但鼓励形成一套管理体制的迫切主张却导致该行业朝2个 截然不同的方向发展。
继续阅读“如火如荼的踏板”
中国的同性恋问题
附带损害
Mar 18th 2010 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
既非同志，亦非伴侣
爱情常常意味着道歉。
中国古代儒家哲学家孟子曾说过：“不孝有三，无后为大。”在中国，想要有男丁承继香火的愿望已经导致了很多严重的问题，其中一个一直被隐藏的问题在近些年逐渐浮出水面。在中国，有几百万女性的丈夫是同性恋，她们不得不忍受无爱且糟糕的婚姻生活。由于网络的普及，这些女性求援的呼声开始出现在主流文化中，人们将这些女性称为“同妻”，由“同志”（中国人对同性恋的俗称）和“妻子”两个词合并而成。 继续阅读“中国的同性恋问题”
谷歌考虑离开中国
搜索失败
西方互联网公司在中国发现庞大市场，机会却寥寥无几
Mar 18th 2010 | HONG KONG | From The Economist print edition
若不出意外，和解几乎是天方夜谭，三月末谷歌撤离中国已然成为定局。谷歌在中国取得了取得了商业上的成功，却无法说服当局信息需要自由。几次对电邮系统袭击，对搜索结果愈演愈烈的审查，对数字图书馆的法律申诉，还有——一直以来中国令人担忧的——国家媒体与日俱增的刻薄过后，人们预计的离开，终于到来。
1月，谷歌曾掀起撤退风波，却在门口徘徊左右顾虑，各中原因四亿——中国政府自称网民四亿人。麦肯锡咨询公司的马克西•马尼和尤瓦•阿茨姆恩称，中国人民越来越多选择网络，而非以电视为代表的其他媒体，作为娱乐消遣、获得信息和发表观点的渠道。十年来，数字广告收入由小基量发展，呈爆炸性增长；阿茨姆恩预测，这样的趋势还将持续一段时间。 继续阅读“搜索失败”
Percy Cradock
珀西•柯利达
Sir Percy Cradock, ambassador to China, died on January 22nd, aged 86
珀西•柯利达爵士，英国驻华大使，1月22日辞世，享年86岁。
Feb 11th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
WHEN the registry filled up with smoke, and he realised the building was on fire, Percy Cradock knew it was time to leave. The date was August 22nd 1967. For months, both tension and noise had been gradually increasing. Drums, gongs and loudspeakers blaring revolutionary songs had made earplugs standard issue in the British Mission in Beijing. The diplomatic round had gone on much as normal; but dinner with the Danish chargé d’affaires, amid the gleam of silverware, had also featured scenes outside the window of people being dragged out of buses and beaten in the street. Now mobs of Red Guards were storming the mission as Mr Cradock, then political counsellor, and the rest of the staff retreated. There was only one thing for it. He raised his arms “in a generally reassuring way” and cried, “We’re coming out.”
登记处烟雾弥漫，珀西•柯利达意识到，房子已经着火了。是时候离开了。那天是1967年8月22日。数月来，局势日趋紧张，窗外也越发吵杂。锣鼓声、扩音器传出的刺耳的革命歌曲，这让耳塞成了北京的英国驻京办事处的一个标准装备。外交界还和往常一样，但是在银器微光下和丹麦临时代办的晚餐中，也不乏窗外有人被拉出汽车，遭人于街头暴打的场景。现在红卫兵正冲进办事处，当时还是政治顾问的柯利达和其它同事赶紧撤退。剩下一件事。他举起双手，以一种宽慰众人的方式，喊道，“我们出来了”。
Some would call it surrender. Mr Cradock knew, on the contrary, that it was the only realistic response. Confrontation would be useless. Besides, having made that concession, he went no further. He was asked by the Guards, as they beat him round his back and shoulders, to cry “Long Live Chairman Mao!” He refused, “and fortunately the demand was not pressed.” Forced to bow his head in the ritual kowtow, he kept trying to raise it. He was asked afterwards why he could not make just one small gesture of obeisance. He replied, with that opaque courtesy beloved of both Chinese officials and Whitehall mandarins, that it could not be done.
有人会称之为投降。相反，柯利达知道，这是唯一可行的办法。正面交锋是没有用的。此外，除了这之外，他没再做别的让步。红卫兵一边不停得打他后背、肩膀，一边要他高喊“毛主席万岁！”他拒绝了。“还好，红卫兵没在继续要求。”他被强行按下头叩头，但他仍努力抬起来。后来有人问他，为什么他不做哪怕是一个很小的屈服动作。他用那种中国和英国官员都很喜欢的模糊的礼貌用语回答说，不能这么做。
He was a figure who might have been at home in the Middle Kingdom, where professional scholar-officials, with the equivalent of his double starred firsts in English and law from Cambridge, kept the vast realm ticking like clockwork. Like them he was low-key but razor-sharp, happy to let ministers have their say first, but with an impish glint in his eye, or a slow steepling of his fingers, that showed he had instantly grasped the danger, or the absurdity, of a situation.
他这个人在中国很可能生活得非常自得。中国是由一群职业的学者官员让这片广袤的土地保持着正常运转，这些官员像他在剑桥拿到英文和法律的双科第一一样，也有类似光辉的学业成绩。而他也和他们一样，低调但又敏锐，乐于让部长们先说，但他眼里调皮的一个眼神，或者指尖稍稍翘起，就意味着他立马抓住了情况的危险所在或是不合理之处。
His regret was that he could not always lead others to grasp it too; that they could not learn to see things from the Chinese point of view. “Know your enemy” was his motto, as well as the title of his book about a late stint as chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee. But for the British governments he served from the 1960s to the 1990s, China was simply unfathomable. Even he—on his scattered tours of duty in 1962, 1966-69, 1978-84 (as ambassador) and secretly thereafter—found the changes baffling. One decade uniformed crowds would be chanting to Mao as the red sun shining in their hearts; the next, “louche young men in T-shirts” proclaimed Deng Xiaoping’s drive to open and modernise. In one dispatch, in his literary way, he resorted to Auden to describe the fading of the Cultural Revolution in 1968:
而他的遗憾是，他不能总是也让别人领悟；他们总是不能学不会从中国的角度看问题。“了解你的敌人” 是他的箴言，这也是有关他随后担任联合情报委员会主席期间生活的一本书的名字。但是对于他二十世纪六十年代至九十年代他任职的英国政府而言，中国简直就是深不可测。即使在他看来——他先后于1962年，1966-1969年，1978-1984年（担任驻华大使）到中国任职，之后又秘密来过——中国的变化也让人迷惑。十年前，统一着装的人群高唱毛主席是他们心中的红太阳，十年后，“身着T恤的不受人尊敬的时髦青年”成了邓小平的改革开放事业的标志。他在1968年的一封信中，引用了奥登（Auden）的诗，从字面上，描写下文化大革命的消退：
The vases crack, the ladies die,
The Oracles are wrong:
We suck our thumbs or sleep; the show
Is gamey and too long.
瓶碎
女亡
圣语妄：
我们舐吸拇指或眼屎
戏剧龌龊也太长
Beneath it all, however, he believed China preserved a self-sufficiency, secrecy and superiority that would not change, and had not done since Britain had been dismissed as “a handful of stones in the Western Ocean”.
在这些文字背后，他却认为中国仍留有一份自我满足感、神秘感和优越感，这些都不会改变。自从英国以“西部大洋里的几块石头”被打发走后，这些也都一直没有变过。
Giving up Hong Kong
放弃香港
His fascination was first sparked by reading Arthur Waley’s[1] translations from the Chinese at school. He stayed intrigued after years of meetings with Chinese leaders who smoked, spat or pickled themselves with mao-tai. A Beijing autumn, calm and golden, with persimmons hanging like lanterns in the trees, would enchant him. But the romance of China was soon eclipsed by the struggle to live, as a free-thinking foreigner, within the communist system. China was, he confessed, an addiction with him. But it was also “an acquired taste, much of it bitter”.
第一次让他对中国着迷的是在学校里读到的阿瑟•韦利（Arthur Waley）翻译的一些作品。在年复一年与抽烟、斗嘴、狂饮茅台的中国领导的各种会议中，他仍保持着这种痴迷。北京之秋，平静的金黄色，挂在树上的柿子像一个个灯笼，让他心旷神怡。但是作为共产主义体制下保持自由思想的外国人，他不得不为了生活而斗争，这种对中国的美好情愫也很快被侵蚀掉了。他坦承，中国让他上瘾了。“虽然有几分苦涩，但我已经习惯了。”
The toughest episode—though also, in his view, a triumph—came in 1983-84, with the talks that arranged the return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty. Sir Percy, as he now was, eschewed a showdown. Britain “had virtually no cards”; it was therefore essential to make a deal, while pressing for whatever freedoms could be salvaged. Margaret Thatcher, still fiery from the Falklands war, at first disagreed with him; popular newspapers talked of betrayal. Chris Patten, who became governor of Hong Kong in 1992, pressed democracy a good deal too much for Sir Percy, who knew it would unnecessarily upset the Chinese. He accused him, in Prospect magazine, of a “fatal miscalculation”.
最艰难的一段时间——尽管在他眼里，这也是一种胜利——是1983——1984年。当时，要和中国政府就香港回归的问题进行一系列谈判。尽管他当时身为珀西爵士，他仍回避了谈判的最后交锋。英国“事实上已经没有牌了”，因此，必须要达成协议，但仍为能够保存一些自由而努力，不管自由能到何种程度。撒切尔夫人，当时还没能从马岛战争的怒火中走出来，起初和他意见相左；大众媒体也给他扣上了背叛的帽子。对于珀西爵士而言，基利斯•彭定康（Chris Patten），也就是后来的1992年香港总督要求的民主太难了，珀西知道，没必要激怒中国。珀西甚而在《观点》杂志上谴责彭定康，斥之为“分析重大失误”。
This was uncharacteristic. Sir Percy usually made his points, and got his way, stealthily and quietly. He would steal upstairs, when foreign-policy adviser at Number 10, to watch Wimbledon on television; he would travel incognito to Beijing, once to negotiate the new Hong Kong airport, and would be snapped pacing in the grounds of the Summer Palace, looking much like George Smiley. But he was provoked into open war with Mr Patten by his very hatred of confrontation. Dealing with China and its arcana imperii was a matter for professionals, not politicians. And his method was not surrender, though it might look as though he had put his hands up, or made a cringing kowtow to the Chinese. It was just, as he saw it, a nod in their direction, in a coolly realistic way.
这不是他的性格。通常，珀西爵士会阐明他的观点，然后离开，悄悄的安静的离开。在他还是唐明街10号的外交政策顾问时，他会偷偷上楼，观看电视中播出的温布尔登网球比赛；有一次在协商香港的新机场时，他会悄悄到北京旅游，在颐和园的庭院里踱步时被人拍到，就像乔治•斯迈利（George Smiley）一样。但这一次，他被激怒了，以他极其厌恶的对峙方式和彭定康进行了公开的对决。和中国及其帝国奥秘打交道是专家的事，而非政客的事。而且，他的办法也不是屈服，尽管当他举起双手，或者向中国人屈膝叩头时，看上去很像。正如他说看到的一样，这不过是按照他们的要求点头而已，这种方式冷静而现实。
[1] 阿瑟韦利（Arthur Waley）是20世纪初英国的汉学大师。
韦利在大英博物馆专职研究艺术品，当时大英博物馆乏人研究东亚艺术，便请他兼职。出于工作需要韦利开始自学汉语，1917年韦利翻译出版了《170首中国诗歌》。韦利翻译的中国诗歌，令西方读者对东方文明大开眼界，当时媒体评论形容：“读中国诗歌，如发现了新大陆一般地激动和兴奋。”中国诗歌热销离不开那个时代的背景。20世纪初的西方人，从报刊上读到的中国消息不是战争就是饥荒，但当读者从书架上取出韦利翻译的中国诗歌集时，里面所展示的则是另一个道德、文明、慈悲、诚实及社会准则的东方乐园。他们开始服膺中国数千年亘古不变的道德哲学，相信这就是文明古国多少世纪来行之有效的治国之本。
韦利于1929年辞去大英博物馆职位，成为一介独立的东方文学译者。上世纪三四十年代，他陆续出版了《诗经》（1937年）、《论语》（1938年）、《猴子》（节译自《西游记》，1942年）。韦利最为推崇白居易和苏东坡。他自称不是一个翻译匠，他认为自己的文学风格与杜甫迥异，因此从未碰过他感觉译不出“灵魂”的中国古诗。韦利被形容为“坐在家里的观察者”，因他从未光临过亚洲。
http://www.guoxue.com/xueren/sinology/wenzhang/fyzggd.htm
[2] 间谍乔治•斯迈利（George Smiley），一个小说里的人物，是侦探史上最为郁郁不得志的一个人。在圈内斯迈利是有口皆碑的反间谍高手，可惜他既不懂作秀，也没生了一张英俊脸孔，所以光环完全被007遮住；他虽屡破奇案，但不会搞好人际关系，所以一直都只是情报处的一个小小职员。
译者：davidship
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China’s economy
中国经济
Central heating
集中供热
Is China growing too fast?
中国是否增长过快？
Jan 21st 2010 | HONG KONG | From The Economist print edition
BEIJING recently suffered its lowest temperature in 59 years, but the economy is sweltering. Figures published on January 21st showed that real GDP grew by 10.7% year on year in the fourth quarter. Industrial production jumped by 18.5% in the year to December, while retail sales increased by 17.5%, boosted by government subsidies and tax cuts on purchases of cars and appliances. In real terms, the rise in retail sales last year was the biggest for over two decades.
北京最近遭遇了59年来的最低气温，而中国的经济却是暑气难当。本月21日公布的数据显示，实际GDP在第四季度同比增长了10.7%。得益于政府补贴以及车辆与机械购置税减免的激励，12月份工业生产同比激增18.5%，零售额则跳升17.5%。以实际值衡量，去年零售额的增长达到了20多年来的最高水平。
A year ago many economists were fretting about unemployment and deflation. Now, with indecent haste, they have shifted to worrying that the Chinese economy is overheating and inflation is taking off. The 12-month rate of consumer-price inflation rose to 1.9% in December, an abrupt change from July when prices were 1.8% lower than a year before.
一年之前，许多经济学家还在为失业及通缩而忧虑。可现在——仓皇狼狈之中——他们舵头一转担心起中国的经济过热以及通胀回升。12月CPI与去年同期相比上升了1.9%——比起7月可谓变化剧烈，当时的同比价格水平跌了1.8个百分点。
The recent rise in inflation was caused mainly by higher food prices as a result of severe winter weather in northern China. In many cities, fresh-vegetable prices have more than doubled in the past two months. But Helen Qiao and Yu Song at Goldman Sachs argue that it is not just food prices that risk pushing up inflation: the economy is starting to exceed its speed limit. If, as China bears contend, the economy had massive overcapacity, there would be little to worry about: excess supply would hold down prices. But bottlenecks are already appearing. Some provinces report electricity shortages, and stocks of coal are low. The labour market is also tightening, forcing firms to pay higher wages.
最近通胀回暖主音在于华北的严冬导致食品价格上升。许多城市的鲜蔬价格在过去两个月中翻了一倍有余。然而高盛的梁红与宋玉认为，食品价格并非通胀上升的唯一风险所在：中国经济已经开始超越其限速。若中国诚如其唱空论者所言出现了巨大的产能过剩，那么通胀的担心或许就是多余的：因为超额供给将压低价格。然而，瓶颈已然初露端倪。一些省份报导供电短缺，煤炭储备亦处于低位。劳工市场同样趋紧，迫使企业提高工资。
If the economy’s slack is shrinking fast, then the extraordinarily rapid growth in money and credit over the past year could quickly spill into inflation. The growth in bank credit slowed to 32% in the year to December, but that is still far too fast. The central bank has started to drain liquidity by lifting banks’ reserve requirements, and some banks have been told to reduce their lending. The bank will probably not raise official interest rates until inflation breaches 3%, but that could be as soon as February.
倘若超额产能正在快速收缩，那么货币与信贷在去年的飞速增长便可能渗入通胀。12月银行信贷同比增长已放缓至32%，然而速度依旧太快。央行已开始通过提高准备金率来回收流动，一些银行亦接到收紧信贷的通知。人民银行估计要等到通胀突破3%时才会提高官方利率，但那可能很快就是2月份的事情。
In 2009 government officials gave three reasons for holding the yuan stable against the dollar: falling exports, weak GDP growth and negative inflation. Now, with double-digit growth in both GDP and exports, and inflation rapidly rising, it has no excuse.
去年，政府官员给出维持人民币对美元汇率不动的三大理由：出口下降、GDP增速放缓以及价格水平回落。现在，随着GDP与出口的两位数增长以及通胀迅速上升，他们没什么借口了。
译者: 弓长贝恩