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China’s economy
中国经济

Central heating
集中供热

Is China growing too fast?
中国是否增长过快？

Jan 21st 2010 | HONG KONG | From The Economist print edition

BEIJING recently suffered its lowest temperature in 59 years, but the economy is sweltering. Figures published on January 21st showed that real GDP grew by 10.7% year on year in the fourth quarter. Industrial production jumped by 18.5% in the year to December, while retail sales increased by 17.5%, boosted by government subsidies and tax cuts on purchases of cars and appliances. In real terms, the rise in retail sales last year was the biggest for over two decades.

北京最近遭遇了59年来的最低气温，而中国的经济却是暑气难当。本月21日公布的数据显示，实际GDP在第四季度同比增长了10.7%。得益于政府补贴以及车辆与机械购置税减免的激励，12月份工业生产同比激增18.5%，零售额则跳升17.5%。以实际值衡量，去年零售额的增长达到了20多年来的最高水平。

A year ago many economists were fretting about unemployment and deflation. Now, with indecent haste, they have shifted to worrying that the Chinese economy is overheating and inflation is taking off. The 12-month rate of consumer-price inflation rose to 1.9% in December, an abrupt change from July when prices were 1.8% lower than a year before.

一年之前，许多经济学家还在为失业及通缩而忧虑。可现在——仓皇狼狈之中——他们舵头一转担心起中国的经济过热以及通胀回升。12月CPI与去年同期相比上升了1.9%——比起7月可谓变化剧烈，当时的同比价格水平跌了1.8个百分点。

The recent rise in inflation was caused mainly by higher food prices as a result of severe winter weather in northern China. In many cities, fresh-vegetable prices have more than doubled in the past two months. But Helen Qiao and Yu Song at Goldman Sachs argue that it is not just food prices that risk pushing up inflation: the economy is starting to exceed its speed limit. If, as China bears contend, the economy had massive overcapacity, there would be little to worry about: excess supply would hold down prices. But bottlenecks are already appearing. Some provinces report electricity shortages, and stocks of coal are low. The labour market is also tightening, forcing firms to pay higher wages.

最近通胀回暖主音在于华北的严冬导致食品价格上升。许多城市的鲜蔬价格在过去两个月中翻了一倍有余。然而高盛的梁红与宋玉认为，食品价格并非通胀上升的唯一风险所在：中国经济已经开始超越其限速。若中国诚如其唱空论者所言出现了巨大的产能过剩，那么通胀的担心或许就是多余的：因为超额供给将压低价格。然而，瓶颈已然初露端倪。一些省份报导供电短缺，煤炭储备亦处于低位。劳工市场同样趋紧，迫使企业提高工资。

If the economy’s slack is shrinking fast, then the extraordinarily rapid growth in money and credit over the past year could quickly spill into inflation. The growth in bank credit slowed to 32% in the year to December, but that is still far too fast. The central bank has started to drain liquidity by lifting banks’ reserve requirements, and some banks have been told to reduce their lending. The bank will probably not raise official interest rates until inflation breaches 3%, but that could be as soon as February.

倘若超额产能正在快速收缩，那么货币与信贷在去年的飞速增长便可能渗入通胀。12月银行信贷同比增长已放缓至32%，然而速度依旧太快。央行已开始通过提高准备金率来回收流动，一些银行亦接到收紧信贷的通知。人民银行估计要等到通胀突破3%时才会提高官方利率，但那可能很快就是2月份的事情。

In 2009 government officials gave three reasons for holding the yuan stable against the dollar: falling exports, weak GDP growth and negative inflation. Now, with double-digit growth in both GDP and exports, and inflation rapidly rising, it has no excuse.

去年，政府官员给出维持人民币对美元汇率不动的三大理由：出口下降、GDP增速放缓以及价格水平回落。现在，随着GDP与出口的两位数增长以及通胀迅速上升，他们没什么借口了。

译者: 弓长贝恩