The state-of-the-union speech
奥巴马的国情咨文
The limits to verbiage
不说废话
The president’s speech was underwhelming, which was probably better than the alternative
总统演说并不精彩，也许这样更好
Jan 28th 2010 | From The Economist online
one thing you can generally count on when the lanky figure of Barack Obama approaches a podium is that you will hear a good speech; and the more trouble he is in, the better the speech is likely to be. He has never spoken more powerfully than just after losing the New Hampshire primary back in January 2008, or when the eruption of his pastor, Jeremiah Wright, threatened to derail him later that year. For his first state-of-the-union message on January 27th, the president needed something extra-special. His ratings are down below 50%, and the loss of a crucial Senate seat in Massachusetts a week earlier means that much of his domestic agenda, notably his efforts to reform health care, is stalled if not dead. But in place of the mighty oratory one might have expected, the president delivered an inordinately long, unrepentant but ultimately rather cautious speech that eschewed the tub-thumping and delivered a little bit to everyone.
当你看到奥巴马瘦长的身影走向演讲台的时候，你可以确定的一件事是，你将听到一场不错的演讲。并且，他越是麻烦缠身，他的演讲就越是精彩。他在2008年1月丢掉新罕布什尔州后或当年年底其牧师Jeremiah Wright威胁要抛弃他时的演说，声势都超越以往。1月27号在他的第一份国情咨文中，奥巴马总统需要一些特别不同的东西。他的支持率不到50%，而马萨诸塞州一个重要参议院席位的丢失意味着他很多的国内事务，特别是他的医改，即使不算完全没戏，至少也会受到阻碍。但是没有人们期待的说服力强的雄辩，总统带来的是一次相当长、没有后悔意味、但是总的说来很小心谨慎的演说，没有慷慨激昂，但涉及到了每一个人。
There were alternatives to the middle course he chose. He might have tacked to the right, in the hope of winning over Republicans, but he would probably have failed. He might have lurched to the left, embracing the sort of populism that seemed presaged by his post-Massachusetts declaration that he was “ready for a fight” with the banks, but that would have alienated the centre. So he chose to remain, just about, the pragmatist whom this newspaper endorsed back in November 2008. But he gave no sign of how he plans to pursue his agenda or solve the problems that are piling up around him.
除他选择的中间路线外，还有其他路线。他可能偏向过右翼，以期待获得共和党人的支持，但是他很可能已经失败。他可能倒向过左翼，信奉人民主义，这可从其后马萨诸塞州宣言中感觉出来，宣言中他宣布他做好了与银行战斗的准备。但是这会使他疏远中间派。所以，他决定继续担任本报于2008年11月支持的那个实用主义者的角色。但是如何达到他的目的，如何解决越积越多的问题，他还没有给出答案。
But what are you going to do about it?但是，你准备怎么办？
On the economy, Mr Obama tickled middle-class voters with a small-change package of family-oriented tax credits for child-care, student loans and suchlike. This sort of micro-targeting worked for Bill Clinton when he found himself in a hole, but Mr Obama faces a far harsher economic environment. Unless the economy starts to recover powerfully enough to cut America’s high unemployment levels, this modest set of policies will seem footling. Such tiny giveaways are unlikely to help assuage Americans’ growing sense that this is an administration that has expended more effort on advancing long-held liberal dreams, like universal health care, than on securing middle-class jobs, nor to allay their suspicion that bail-outs are only for bankers. There is a deep populist anger brewing in America, and Mr Obama risks having cooled it barely at all.
关于经济问题，奥巴马对儿童保育，学生贷款等家庭导向型税收优惠的细小调整让中产阶级有些动心。这种微观解决方式在克林顿陷入困境时起过作用，但是奥巴马面对的是更加艰难的经济环境。除非经济强劲反弹的力度大到能将美国的高失业率降下来，不然这种动作不大的政策将作用有限。美国人越来越担忧，这届政府更关心的是实现自由主义者的夙愿，比如全民医保，而不是为中产阶级的工作提供保障，所以这样的小恩小惠很难减轻这种担忧，也很难消减民众对于经济救援只有银行家收益的怀疑。在美国，民众的怒火在酝酿、焚烧，而奥巴马很有可能根本熄灭不了。
The same is true for his efforts at fiscal rectitude. The Obama team has read the runes of Massachusetts, and has observed that one of the things that most angered voters there was the size of the deficit. Rightly so: the Congressional Budget Office gave warning this week that the deficit would run at more than $1.3 trillion this year, as a proportion of GDP the second-worst since the war (the worst was last year), with a long line of horrors to come. But the president’s response was another exercise in having it both ways. His promise to freeze non-security discretionary spending for three years was meant to reassure people who worry about a poisonous legacy of debt. But once military spending and entitlements (such as government-provided health insurance for the poor and the elderly, and Social Security) are stripped out, less than a fifth of the budget is left to freeze: and that freeze would be counteracted by the jobs bill that Mr Obama urged Congress to pass.
财政方面所遇的情况也差不多。奥巴马的团队已经看过麻省的材料，并已经觉察到赤字规模是最让民众愤怒的事情之一。民众有着资格：本周国会预算办公室警告，今年的赤字将超过1.3万亿美元。如果换算成占GDP的比重，这会是战后第二糟糕的（去年最糟糕），并且麻烦还将接踵而至。但是总统的回应又是模棱两可。他承诺将把不稳定可自由支配开支冻结3年，这只是为了让人们别担心危险的积累负债。但是在除去开军费开支和政府津贴（比如政府负担的给穷人和老人的医疗保险，还有社会保障）后，可以被冻结的预算还不到五分之一：而剩下的这一部分要将被奥巴马敦促国会通过的就业法案抵消。
America cannot return to budgetary health without tackling entitlements. Mr Obama said he wants a bipartisan commission to figure out how to get the deficit down. The Senate voted down just such a plan the day before his big speech. Mr Obama therefore intends to set up one of his own. But the chances of Congress accepting (or perhaps even debating) the commission’s recommendations hardly seem encouraging in light of the rejection. A better speech would have laid out an outline for a return to fiscal health, not subcontracted it.
不解决政府津贴问题，美国的预算就不可能走上健康的轨道。奥巴马说他需要一个两党联立的委员会来研究削减赤字的路径。在他发表演讲的前一天，参议院就否决了这一计划。于是奥巴马想自己成立一个。但是鉴于这一否决，国会通过（或者说商讨）该委员会意见的几率不令人鼓舞。一个更好的演讲应该是为财政健康的恢复提出基本思路，而不是将它转交给别人。
Other questions remain unanswered. Is Mr Obama ready to fight hard for the things he said he believed in when he ran for office—health-care reform, a cap-and-trade system to rein in America’s carbon-dioxide emissions, the rebuilding of America’s schools? Will he act on his promise to impose sanctions on Iran? The answer to all those questions, he said, is yes. But he gave not the slightest clue how he intends to accomplish any of it. He could, for instance, have urged the House to pass the Senate health bill, which is imperfect but better than nothing; or he could have reached out to Republicans by offering compromises. He did neither, and that was a waste of a podium.
还有其他问题没有得到回答。竞选时奥巴马提到的那些信仰，比如医改，控制美国碳排量的限额交易机制，美国学校的重建，他会为此全力以赴吗？他会实践自己关于制裁伊朗的诺言吗？对于所有这些问题，他说，肯定。但是打算如何实现它们，他却没有给出任何思路。他可以，比方说，促使众议院通过参议院的医保议案，即使它有遗憾之处，但也比没有强。或者， 他可以和共和党交换些条件。但是，他都没做。这就有点浪费演讲台的作用了。