分类：财经

America’s economy

美国经济

Ticking up

经济复苏

Jan 29th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist online

America’s economy grew by 5.7% at the end of 2009. Yet it remains vulnerable
美国经济在2009年年末增长了5.7%。但是她仍需要悉心呵护。

AFTER a tough start to 2010, Barack Obama could not have asked for better news on the economy to distract attention from his political difficulties. In the fourth quarter of last year American GDP grew by an impressive 5.7%, at an annual rate, the best quarterly performance since 2003. Expansion was driven by growth in private inventories and an increase in exports. For all of 2009 output declined by 2.4%, but for Americans weary from two years of declining employment, the fourth-quarter figure offers a clear signal that the worst is over.
新年伊始就遭遇不顺，（美国总统）巴拉克•奥巴马可能不会指望更好的经济表现来分散旁人对他政治困境的关注。按年率计算，去年第四季度，美国国内生产总值增长5.7%，这令人印象深刻，是自2003年以来最优异的季度表现。经济复苏是受私人投资和出口的双升所拉动。在整个2009年，经济产出下降了2.9%，但是，对于经历了两年来就业量下滑的美国人来说，第四季度的数据清晰得表明：经济已经触底回升。

Yet only cautious celebration is in order. There are reasons to doubt that the impressive performance in a single quarter will be repeated in the coming months. Weak fundamentals will prevent the American economy from sustaining that fast pace of growth. Of the 5.7% increase in real output, 3.4 percentage points came from inventory changes, as firms which had operated on a shoestring in the recession built inventories back to normal levels. That brief buying spree brought some workers back to assembly lines, but unless a new source of demand arises the boost from restocking will fade and growth will slow.
然而，仅是小心的庆祝还算合适。（我们）有理由持有这样的疑虑：单季度如此骄人的经济表现是否还会在未来不断出现。脆弱的经济基本面不会使美国经济保持快速增长。经济按实际值计算增长5点7个百分点（减去通货膨胀率——即09年商品和劳务价格变化程度），其中有3点4个百分点来自于私人投资的增加，因为在萧条中，勒紧裤带（裁汰员工，削减支出，降低规模）度日的公司已将生产（产品）拉回正常水平。短暂的抢购风（原译为：需求升温）使部分工人重新站在流水作业线旁边，但是如果新的需求源不能异军突起，那么产品数量的增加之势将一去（暂）不复返而且经济增长会放缓。

There are already signs of a loss of momentum. According to Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, most of the inventory boost came in October, when growth roared ahead at a 16.4% annual rate. By November, growth had already quietened substantially. And throughout the fourth quarter the economy has continued to shed jobs. It is difficult to sustain growth when employment is not rising.
已有迹象表明：经济上行的势头正在消退。根据宏观经济咨询公司（一家咨询公司）的有关数据，绝大多数产品存货的增加始于去年10月份，那时经济以16.4%的年率大踏步回升。截止11月，经济增长已大体消弭。接着（去年）整个第四季度经济未能力挽失业率攀升的狂澜。在就业率下降之时去维持经济的增长，此难于登天矣。

Nor is it clear where new demand might arise. As the GDP report makes plain, personal consumption remains extremely weak; consumption rose by just 2.0% for the quarter, below the 2.8% increase of the previous three months. Spending will probably remain subdued throughout 2010. According to a recent IMF research note, the crisis and recession significantly damaged household wealth, suggesting that savings rates will rise in a recovery. The effect on consumption may be to trim 3% off GDP relative to pre-crisis levels. Indeed, the fourth-quarter savings rate ticked up to 4.6%, from 4.5% during the previous period. New demand growth will have to come elsewhere.
新需求出自哪里，尚不明了。正如GDP报告上写得清清楚楚一般，个人消费仍然相当疲软；第4季度消费仅仅上升了2.0%，低于过去3个月2.8%的上升水平。（家庭）投入在今年很有可能位于低水平。IMF最近的研究报告显示，经济危机和萧条严重缩水了家庭资产，这表明储蓄率会在经济复苏中上升。与危机前的水平相比，消费对GDP的贡献可能减少3个百分点，事实上，第四季度储蓄率从前期的4.5%上升到4.6%。新需求将不得不问路它方。

Investment may also disappoint in 2010, because of overcapacity. Oversupply in both residential and commercial property has discouraged investment in the sectors and meant that construction employment is not rising. Housing starts continue to languish at around a third of normal levels. Industrial-capacity use is similarly well below pre-recession levels. Until most existing capacity is put to productive use, there is little reason for businesses to make new investments.
因为会出现产能过剩，这一年（2010年）的投资可能也会受挫。住宅房和商业房的过度供给（或“过度膨胀”）将会给许多部门的投资泼冷水并且房市的泡沫意味着建筑业行中的就业率难有起色。房市经济开始冷却，大约是正常水平的1/3。产能的使用（或者投入）同样远远低于危机前的水平。除非绝大多数产能投入生产使用，否则经济发展中出现新一轮投资之谈无异于痴人说梦（或者“根本站不住脚”）。

Nor does it help that government economic support will fade during 2010. Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com, estimates that the federal stimulus contributed about two percentage points of growth in the fourth quarter. That will drop below one percentage point by mid-year and fall to nothing thereafter. State budget cuts will also be a drain on output, as they have been for most of the recession. Drops in state-government spending subtracted 0.1% from output for all of 2009.
2010年政府救市方案的退出后，经济将难有改观。Mark Zandi（一位来自Moody’s Economy.com 的经济学家）估计，联邦政府的刺激政策对第四季度的经济增长贡献了两个百分点。这一贡献率在年中到来之前将降至1个百分点之下并最后彻底消失。{州政府预算的缩减也将拖累经济的发展，正像以前绝大多数经济衰退中所发生的一样。（此处感谢join_soon）}2009年全年，州政府开支的削减使产出降低了0.1%。

And even the fourth quarter’s spirited performance may be overstated. Third-quarter growth was originally reported at 3.5%, only to be revised down later to 2.2%.
接着，甚至是（去年）第四季度振奋人心的经济表现或许也被人为夸大。去年第三季度经济增长在报告中起初是3.5%，结果后来竟然修订为2.2%。

Nonetheless, the performance of the American economy in the fourth quarter is encouraging, suggesting firmly that America has pulled free of recession. Yet caution is in order. If the response is to cut back quickly on fiscal and monetary support for the economy, this flash of growth could disappear as quickly as it emerged.
但是，美国经济第4季度的表现还是鼓舞人心的，这清楚地说明美国已经走出经济衰退的泥潭。然而保持谨慎的态度是合宜的。如果马上撤出支撑经济的财政和货币（的扩张性）政策，那么经济增长的闪光可能会来也匆匆，去也匆匆。

译者：intel英杰
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30594

Designing rewards
设计奖励
Carrots dressed as sticks
披着大棒外衣的胡萝卜政策
Jan 14th 2010
From The Economist print edition
An experiment on economic incentives
经济激励试验
PEOPLE are contrary creatures. A man may say he would not pay more than $5 for a coffee mug. But if he is told that the mug is his, and asked immediately afterwards how much he would be willing to sell it for, he typically holds out for more. Possession, it appears, lends things an added allure.
人是一种矛盾的动物。一个人可能声称他最多只愿为一个咖啡杯付上5美元。但当他被告知这个咖啡杯是他自己的，并被询问期望以多少价钱卖出时，他一般情况下所要的价钱肯定比5美元更高。由此可见，人们对某物的拥有赋予了该物更高的价值。

This makes little sense in the world of standard economic theory, where the value of something depends on what it is. But it can be explained by behavioural models in which the value people attach to objects is affected by what they already have, and people abhor losses more than they like equivalent gains.
这在标准的经济学理论中站不住脚，在标准理论中，物品的价值取决于它是什么。但是这种现象可以通过行为模型来解释，在行为模型中，人们对于物品价值的判断受到他们已有物品的影响，而且人们对于损失的反应往往比等价的利得的反应要大的多。

In a new paper Tanjim Hossain of the University of Toronto and John List of the University of Chicago explore a real-world use of these insights. The economists worked with the managers of a Chinese electronics factory, who were interested in exploring ways to make their employee-bonus scheme more effective. Most might have recommended changes to the amounts of money on offer. But Mr Hossain and Mr List chose instead to concentrate on the wording of the letter informing workers of the details of the bonus scheme.
多伦多大学的丹极-侯赛因和芝加哥大学的约翰-李斯特在他们的新文章中探讨了这个观点在现实世界中的应用。这两位经济学家以一家中国电子制造厂的经理作为研究样本，这些经理人正致力于如何使得他们员工奖金机制更加有效。大多数人的观点是增加能够支出的奖金的数量。但是侯赛因和李斯特认为应该在给员工奖金方案细节的通知信的措辞上下功夫。

At the beginning of the week, some groups of workers were told that they would receive a bonus of 80 yuan ($12) at the end of the week if they met a given production target. Other groups were told that they had “provisionally” been awarded the same bonus, also due at the end of the week, but that they would “lose” it if their productivity fell short of the same threshold.
其中一组工人在一周（的工作）开始时获知，如果他们能够完成既定的生产目标，则在周末将获得80元人民币（约合12美元）的奖励。另外一些工人在一周的开始就得到了同样数字的“临时性”奖金，但是如果到周末，他们的工作没有达到和前面的那些工人相同的目标，这些奖金将被收回。

Objectively these are two ways of describing the same scheme. But under a theory of loss aversion, the second way of presenting the bonus should work better. Workers would think of the provisional bonus as theirs, and work harder to prevent it from being taken away.
客观上说，有两种方法来描述同一种方案。但是基于对损失厌恶的理论来说，第二种奖金方案更能激励员工。员工们会认为这个“临时”的奖金是归他们所有的，并且更加努力的工作来防止奖金被收回。

This is just what the economists found. The fear of loss was a better motivator than the prospect of gain (which worked too, but less well). And the difference persisted over time: the results were not simply a consequence of workers’ misunderstanding of the system. Economists have always been advocates of using carrots and sticks. But they may not have emphasised appearances enough. Carrots, this research suggests, may work better if they can somehow be made to look like sticks.
这就是经济学家们所发现的。对于损失的恐惧相对于利得的前景（这种方法也有效，但是效用不如前者）来说，是更有利的激发因素。这种差别始终存在：以上所得出的结果不仅仅是由于员工对于奖金系统的认知误差所引起的。经济学家们一直以来都是胡萝卜政策（奖励政策——译者注）和大棒政策（惩罚政策——译者注）的拥护者。但是他们没有对于政策的表象给予足够的重视。这个研究的结果说明，如果给胡萝卜政策披上大棒的外衣的话，可能会更加有效。
译者：tinawang

Bahrain’s labour market 巴林的劳动力市场

Bridging the gulf
缩小鸿沟

Jan 14th 2010 | MANAMA
From The Economist print edition

One country in the Gulf tries to wean itself off foreign workers
海湾某国尝试不再依赖外国劳工

THE newly opened Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building, is a monument to Dubai’s audacity. It is also a stark illustration of its dependence on foreign labour. Designed by an American, overseen by a New Zealander and built by mostly South Asian labourers, the 200-storey tower was the work of more than 100 nationalities. Indeed, 90% of the workforce in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is foreign. In neighbouring Qatar and Kuwait, the figure is over 80%. Even in Saudi Arabia, which has more than 22m locals, foreigners fill almost half the country’s jobs.

新近开放的世界第一高塔博芝•哈里发塔，是迪拜无畏勇气的象征，也是其依赖国外劳工的显著例证。这座200层的高塔是由美国人设计，新西兰人监督，并主要由南亚劳工修建的。建造这个200层塔的工作人员来自100多个国家。事实上，阿联酋90%的劳动力都是外国人。在邻国卡塔尔和科威特，这个比例也大于80%，甚至在有2200多万本地居民的沙特阿拉伯，外国劳动力也占据了近半数的工作岗位。

Policymakers in the region fret about citizens who cannot find a government job and will not settle for private employment at the low wages foreigners accept. One observer likens the chasm in wages between Gulf nationals and poor migrants to the Mariana Trench. Rather than restrict expatriate hiring, governments typically respond by prodding companies to hire locals, imposing “Emiratisation” or “Saudisation” quotas. During the downturn the UAE and Saudi authorities instructed firms to fire foreigners first.

本地区有些居民无法在政府找到工作，又不愿勉强接受私营企业提供的与国外劳工同等的低薪，这让决策者苦恼不已。一位观察者将海湾国民与穷苦移民者的薪金差别比作是马里亚纳海沟。为应对这一切，政府采取推动企业雇佣本地人以及实行“酋长国化”或者“沙地化”限额的政策(实行“酋长国式”或者“沙特式”配额的政策)，而不是限制聘用外籍人员。经济低迷时期，阿联酋与沙特政府指示企业应首先解雇外国人（真悲惨啊。。。）。

Gulf officials are therefore paying close attention to an experiment in Bahrain, an island kingdom where expatriates hold 80% of private-sector jobs. Since July 2008 the government has charged firms 200 Bahraini dinars ($530) for a work visa and ten dinars a month for every foreign employee on their payroll. Since August 2009 it has also allowed foreigners to quit their sponsoring employer, giving them four weeks to find a new job before they must leave Bahrain.

因此，巴林的一项实验便成了海湾官员密切关注的焦点。巴林是一个岛国，其外籍人员比例在私营企业中占80%。巴林政府自2008年7月份开始，每张工作证要收取企业200巴林第纳尔（530美元）的费用，每名外国雇员还要从月薪里扣除10第纳尔上缴。2009年8月起，外国雇员可以中止与巴林雇主的雇佣关系，在被迫离开巴林之前还会获得四周时间来寻找新工作。

Since the levy came in the chasm in labour costs has begun to close, but at a geological pace at best (see chart). The gap narrowed from 252 dinars a month in the second quarter of 2008 to 225 in the third quarter of 2009. In September 159 workers switched employers; another 140 moved the next month, earning an extra 69 dinars a month on average. But these foreigners were already paid more than most.

（这句好难）自那时开始，两者的劳动力成本课税差距以缓慢的速度开始减少（如曲线图）。(自该税开征，劳动力征税分歧已开始减缓。)从2008年第二季度的252第纳尔减少到2009年第三季度的225第纳尔。9月份，有159位外籍雇员换了雇主，10月份则有140位，他们平均比以往每月多挣69第纳尔。相比其他人，这些外籍雇员已经算挣得多的了。

Bahrain’s businessmen, some of whom double as policymakers, could not stop the levy but they did succeed in limiting it to a paltry ten dinars. In paying the tax, businessmen hoped to buy the freedom to hire foreigners as they saw fit. But because the levy is so low, the authorities cannot rely on it to stem the influx of foreign labour. So some businessmen complain that requests for visas are still subject to bureaucratic humming and hawing.

巴林的商人中，有些还兼任决策者（政策制定者，下同）。他们不能免除课税，（不能阻止这项征税）却成功地将之降到微不足道的10第纳尔。商人们希望能通过缴清税收获得雇佣合适外国劳力的自由。由于税收很低，政府无法藉此阻止外国劳力蜂拥而入。有商人抱怨工作证的获取仍然受限于官僚政治的模棱两可（哼哼哈哈）。

As well as making foreigners more expensive, the government is trying to make locals more employable. Of the roughly 90m dinars the levy raises in a year, 80% goes to Tamkeen, an agency dedicated to improving the productivity of Bahraini firms and workers, partly through cheap loans and training. It hopes to equip 19,000 lower-paid Bahrainis for better positions, training receptionists to also perform data-entry tasks, for example. Tamkeen will even pay a wage increment for local employees for the first year. Thanks to these sweeteners, one Bahraini publisher says he can now persuade his countrymen to do jobs previously confined to foreigners, such as delivering newspapers to subscribers (but only by car; motorbikes are still strictly for immigrants).

政府在提高外国人待遇的同时，也在努力帮助当地人就业。一年来增长的9千万第纳尔的税收，80%都给了旨在提高巴林企业与工人生产力的机构—塔姆基。通过低息贷款和培训，塔姆基希望能帮助一万九千名巴林低收入者胜任更好的工作岗位。比如，训练前台接待员使之能完成数据输入工作。塔姆基甚至会在头年付给本地雇员递增工资。一名巴林出版商说，多亏了这些益处，现在他能够说服他的老乡去做以前只能外国人做的工作，比如将报纸发送给订阅人（但是只能坐汽车；摩托车仍然只有外国移民能开）

“Cheap labour is preventing investment in training and technology,” says Majeed Al Alawi, the minister for labour. “Therefore productivity is low, pay is low, and the private sector is not attractive to Bahrainis.” Bahrain hopes to build, storey by storey, a workforce that is worth the higher wages locals expect. As one policymaker told his Dubai counterpart: “It’s not how tall your building is; it’s what goes inside it that matters.”

巴林劳工大臣马吉德•阿拉维说：“劳动力的廉价阻碍了培训和技术投资。因而导致了生产力底下，薪水微薄，私营企业对巴林人失去吸引力。”
巴林希望逐渐建立如当地人期待的高薪工作人口群（员工梯队）。正如一位决策者告诉迪拜同仁的那样：“关键不是在于楼建多高，而是里面的东西。
译者：nuvia

After Dubai 迪拜过后 A financial sandstorm 金融沙尘暴 Nov 30th 2009 | DELHI From Economist.com The global consequences of Dubai’s debt problems 迪拜债务问题波及全球 继续阅读“”

India’s gold purchase
印度的黄金交易

Adornment and investment
装饰品与投资

Nov 5th 2009 | DELHI
From The Economist print edition

India is eager for the IMF’s bullion
印度渴望国际货币基金组织的黄金
继续阅读“”

Heads I win, tails you lose
正面我赢，反面你输

Oct 20th 2009
From Economist.com

Why Wall Street needs a new social contract
为何华尔街需要一个新的社会契约

EVER since Rolling Stone magazine described Goldman Sachs in July as a “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,” the investment bank has emerged as the favourite piñata(1) for anyone who wants to give Wall Street a mighty thwack. Lloyd Blankfein, the investment bank’s chief executive, may be right, as he recently told The Economist, that vampire squids, which really do exist in the depths of the ocean, are “small and harmless”. Yet his firm and the industry of which it is now the reluctant face have a real image problem, which they need to deal with before it turns into something nastier.
自从《滚石》杂志7月份将高盛形容为“包裹在人类面部上的吸血乌贼，无情地将其吸血管插向任何带有钱味的物体”以来，这家投行对于任何希望给华尔街有力一击的人而言已然成了深受喜爱的皮纳塔玩具。高盛的首席执行官劳埃德·布兰克费恩也许是对的。他最近在接受《经济学人》采访时称，确实存在于海底深处的吸血乌贼“小而无害”。然而他的公司以及整个行业都存在形象问题，它们需要提早应对，以免形象变得更令人憎恶。
继续阅读“”

The Nobel prize for economics
经济学的诺奖

The bigger picture
大局面

Oct 12th 2009
From Economist.com

This year’s Nobel prize has rewarded the use of economics to answer wider questions
本年度的诺奖犒赏运用经济学来回答大局面上的问题
继续阅读“”

The wealth effect 财富效应 Withdrawal symptoms 撤退的征兆   Sep 3rd 2009 From The Economist print edition  Most new borrowing during America’s housing boom was for spending 由于房屋升值所带来的抵押借贷资金,多数被用于消费 继续阅读“”

Finance and Economics
Offshore private banking
离岸私人银行业

Bourne to survive
伯恩的幸存

Aug 6th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Despite the woes of UBS, Swiss private banking remains in reasonable shape
尽管瑞银处境不佳，瑞士的私人银行业仍保有相当规模

Illustration by S. Kambayashi

AFTER visiting his bank in Zurich, Jason Bourne, an amnesic assassin, wonders: “Who has a safety-deposit box full of money and six passports and a gun?” In the popular imagination as well as Hollywood films the answer is clear: customers of Swiss banks do.

当失忆的杀手詹森•伯恩(Jason Bourne)从其位于苏黎世的银行走出后，自问到：”什么样的人会有一个装满了钱、6本护照还有一把枪的银行保险箱？”在大众的想像与好莱坞的电影中，这个答案是明确的：瑞士银行的客户就是这样的人。
继续阅读“”

Caveat creditor
诚告债权人

Jul 2nd 2009
From The Economist print edition

A new economic era is dawning
新经济时代正在临近

SOMETIMES you can have too much news. There was so much financial turmoil in the autumn that it was hard to keep up with events. In retrospect it is clear that a change in the economic backdrop akin to the demise of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s has taken place. Investors will be dealing with the aftermath for decades to come.

有时你可能觉得信息泛滥。秋日里发生的金融风暴事件实在太多，很难实时跟进事态的发展。现在回想起来，显而易见的是，与20世纪70年代初的布雷顿森林体系解体背景相似的经济巨变已然发生。而投资者将在未来十年中疲于善后。
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