America’s economy
美国经济
Ticking up
经济复苏
Jan 29th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist online
America’s economy grew by 5.7% at the end of 2009. Yet it remains vulnerable
美国经济在2009年年末增长了5.7%。但是她仍需要悉心呵护。
AFTER a tough start to 2010, Barack Obama could not have asked for better news on the economy to distract attention from his political difficulties. In the fourth quarter of last year American GDP grew by an impressive 5.7%, at an annual rate, the best quarterly performance since 2003. Expansion was driven by growth in private inventories and an increase in exports. For all of 2009 output declined by 2.4%, but for Americans weary from two years of declining employment, the fourth-quarter figure offers a clear signal that the worst is over.
新年伊始就遭遇不顺，（美国总统）巴拉克•奥巴马可能不会指望更好的经济表现来分散旁人对他政治困境的关注。按年率计算，去年第四季度，美国国内生产总值增长5.7%，这令人印象深刻，是自2003年以来最优异的季度表现。经济复苏是受私人投资和出口的双升所拉动。在整个2009年，经济产出下降了2.9%，但是，对于经历了两年来就业量下滑的美国人来说，第四季度的数据清晰得表明：经济已经触底回升。
Yet only cautious celebration is in order. There are reasons to doubt that the impressive performance in a single quarter will be repeated in the coming months. Weak fundamentals will prevent the American economy from sustaining that fast pace of growth. Of the 5.7% increase in real output, 3.4 percentage points came from inventory changes, as firms which had operated on a shoestring in the recession built inventories back to normal levels. That brief buying spree brought some workers back to assembly lines, but unless a new source of demand arises the boost from restocking will fade and growth will slow.
然而，仅是小心的庆祝还算合适。（我们）有理由持有这样的疑虑：单季度如此骄人的经济表现是否还会在未来不断出现。脆弱的经济基本面不会使美国经济保持快速增长。经济按实际值计算增长5点7个百分点（减去通货膨胀率——即09年商品和劳务价格变化程度），其中有3点4个百分点来自于私人投资的增加，因为在萧条中，勒紧裤带（裁汰员工，削减支出，降低规模）度日的公司已将生产（产品）拉回正常水平。短暂的抢购风（原译为：需求升温）使部分工人重新站在流水作业线旁边，但是如果新的需求源不能异军突起，那么产品数量的增加之势将一去（暂）不复返而且经济增长会放缓。
There are already signs of a loss of momentum. According to Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, most of the inventory boost came in October, when growth roared ahead at a 16.4% annual rate. By November, growth had already quietened substantially. And throughout the fourth quarter the economy has continued to shed jobs. It is difficult to sustain growth when employment is not rising.
已有迹象表明：经济上行的势头正在消退。根据宏观经济咨询公司（一家咨询公司）的有关数据，绝大多数产品存货的增加始于去年10月份，那时经济以16.4%的年率大踏步回升。截止11月，经济增长已大体消弭。接着（去年）整个第四季度经济未能力挽失业率攀升的狂澜。在就业率下降之时去维持经济的增长，此难于登天矣。
Nor is it clear where new demand might arise. As the GDP report makes plain, personal consumption remains extremely weak; consumption rose by just 2.0% for the quarter, below the 2.8% increase of the previous three months. Spending will probably remain subdued throughout 2010. According to a recent IMF research note, the crisis and recession significantly damaged household wealth, suggesting that savings rates will rise in a recovery. The effect on consumption may be to trim 3% off GDP relative to pre-crisis levels. Indeed, the fourth-quarter savings rate ticked up to 4.6%, from 4.5% during the previous period. New demand growth will have to come elsewhere.
新需求出自哪里，尚不明了。正如GDP报告上写得清清楚楚一般，个人消费仍然相当疲软；第4季度消费仅仅上升了2.0%，低于过去3个月2.8%的上升水平。（家庭）投入在今年很有可能位于低水平。IMF最近的研究报告显示，经济危机和萧条严重缩水了家庭资产，这表明储蓄率会在经济复苏中上升。与危机前的水平相比，消费对GDP的贡献可能减少3个百分点，事实上，第四季度储蓄率从前期的4.5%上升到4.6%。新需求将不得不问路它方。
Investment may also disappoint in 2010, because of overcapacity. Oversupply in both residential and commercial property has discouraged investment in the sectors and meant that construction employment is not rising. Housing starts continue to languish at around a third of normal levels. Industrial-capacity use is similarly well below pre-recession levels. Until most existing capacity is put to productive use, there is little reason for businesses to make new investments.
因为会出现产能过剩，这一年（2010年）的投资可能也会受挫。住宅房和商业房的过度供给（或“过度膨胀”）将会给许多部门的投资泼冷水并且房市的泡沫意味着建筑业行中的就业率难有起色。房市经济开始冷却，大约是正常水平的1/3。产能的使用（或者投入）同样远远低于危机前的水平。除非绝大多数产能投入生产使用，否则经济发展中出现新一轮投资之谈无异于痴人说梦（或者“根本站不住脚”）。
Nor does it help that government economic support will fade during 2010. Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com, estimates that the federal stimulus contributed about two percentage points of growth in the fourth quarter. That will drop below one percentage point by mid-year and fall to nothing thereafter. State budget cuts will also be a drain on output, as they have been for most of the recession. Drops in state-government spending subtracted 0.1% from output for all of 2009.
2010年政府救市方案的退出后，经济将难有改观。Mark Zandi（一位来自Moody’s Economy.com 的经济学家）估计，联邦政府的刺激政策对第四季度的经济增长贡献了两个百分点。这一贡献率在年中到来之前将降至1个百分点之下并最后彻底消失。{州政府预算的缩减也将拖累经济的发展，正像以前绝大多数经济衰退中所发生的一样。（此处感谢join_soon）}2009年全年，州政府开支的削减使产出降低了0.1%。
And even the fourth quarter’s spirited performance may be overstated. Third-quarter growth was originally reported at 3.5%, only to be revised down later to 2.2%.
接着，甚至是（去年）第四季度振奋人心的经济表现或许也被人为夸大。去年第三季度经济增长在报告中起初是3.5%，结果后来竟然修订为2.2%。
Nonetheless, the performance of the American economy in the fourth quarter is encouraging, suggesting firmly that America has pulled free of recession. Yet caution is in order. If the response is to cut back quickly on fiscal and monetary support for the economy, this flash of growth could disappear as quickly as it emerged.
但是，美国经济第4季度的表现还是鼓舞人心的，这清楚地说明美国已经走出经济衰退的泥潭。然而保持谨慎的态度是合宜的。如果马上撤出支撑经济的财政和货币（的扩张性）政策，那么经济增长的闪光可能会来也匆匆，去也匆匆。
译者：intel英杰
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