The defence budget
国防预算

The Pentagon dodges the bullet
五角大楼躲过了旋风

Barack Obama is spending more on defence than his predecessors
奥巴马政府的国防支出超过前任

Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

EVEN Robert Gates, the American defence secretary, admits that the $708 billion requested by Barack Obama for defence spending next year is “a massive number”. The Pentagon was exempted from the administration’s spending freeze; the surge in Afghanistan consumes all the savings from the drawdown from Iraq. So America will spend more money on defence than it did during the Korean or Vietnam wars, though as a share of national wealth defence spending is still relatively low in historical terms (see chart).

美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨也承认,奥巴马政府提出的7080亿美元的下一年度国防预算是一个“天文数字”。五角大楼成功地躲过了这场政府刮起的冻结支出的旋风。从伊拉克撤出部队省下的钱全都被增兵阿富汗的行动花光了。因此，美国的国防预算将要超过朝鲜战争和越南战争期间的支出。但以占国民经济总收入的百分比计算，这一预算还是各历史时期中相对较低的。（见图表）

For Mr Gates the 2011 budget request, and the new quadrennial defence review (QDR) issued on the same day, are meant to consolidate the changes he has been promoting: giving priority to fighting today’s wars over buying equipment for tomorrow’s possible conflicts. The Obama administration’s first QDR is more evolution than revolution. That was to be expected, given that Mr Gates was kept on from the administration of George Bush.

对盖茨先生来说，2011年的国防预算草案以及同日发布的新一期《四年防务评估报告》（QDR）都意味着进一步巩固了他一直在推动的预算改革：防务支出要优先用于目前正在进行的战争行动，为今后可能的冲突购买装备的支出要排在第二位。奥玛巴当局的第一期QDR并未彻底推翻前一期的《四年防务评估报告》，而是在它的基础上进行了一些修正。考虑到盖茨先生是乔治•布什政府留任的国防部长，这样的政策是可以预料到的。

Mr Gates’s tenure at the Pentagon is notable for two features: his willingness to kill off expensive projects, and his ruthlessness in punishing failure. Last year Mr Gates halted projects such as the new presidential helicopter and capped production of the air force’s top-of-the-line F-22 fighter—saving, he says, $330 billion. He has also fired, among others, the secretaries of the army and of the air force.

这位五角大楼的大老板以下列两个特点而闻名：他毫不犹豫地取缔耗资过大的项目；毫不手软地惩处犯有过失者。去年，他就下令终止了制造新的总统专用直升机，削减了空军最尖端的F-22战斗机的产量，据他说，此举能节省3300亿美元。他还解除了包括陆军参谋长和空军参谋长在内的一批高级将领的职务。

His latest cull is less dramatic. He wants to cancel the navy’s new cruiser and halt plans to replace its EP-3 intelligence aircraft. He seeks to cap production of the C-17 aircraft and kill off plans for an alternate engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—and if Congress attempts to preserve these two projects, Mr Gates said, he will ask Mr Obama to veto the budget.

相比之下，他最近的消减项目行动就不那么引人注目了。他下令取消美国海军新型巡洋舰的研制，终止EP-3电子侦察机的更新换代计划。他目前正积极推动减少C-17运输机的生产数量，取消为F-35联合攻击战斗机更换发动机的计划。盖茨威胁说，如果国会试图保留这两个项目，他就会要求奥巴马总统否决预算。

But is the defence budget on target?
国防预算也会成为攻击的目标吗？

The idea is to free up money for, among other things, more drones (see picture) and helicopters. Electronic warfare and cybersecurity would also be beefed up. With other countries, notably China, finding new ways to sink ships and shoot down planes and satellites, the QDR considers a new generation of long-range weapons such as unmanned bombers launched from aircraft carriers and long-range cruise missiles fired from submarines.

这样做的目的是要挤出钱来用于采购更多的无人机（见图）和直升机以及其它用途。电子战和网络安全也需要更多的资金投入。由于其它国家（显然是指中国）正在研制新型防空、反舰、反卫星武器，这份《四年防务评估报告》要求研制新一代远程武器系统，如从航空母舰上起飞的无人驾驶轰炸机、潜艇上发射的远程巡航导弹等。

The F-35 is supposed to become the backbone of American air power, but its costs have been rising. So Mr Gates announced he would replace the Pentagon’s manager in charge of the programme, Major-General David Heinz, a two-star general, with a three-star officer. He said he would also dock $614m in performance fees for the contractor, Lockheed Martin.

F-35战机将成为美国空军的主要机种，但其所需费用在不断增加。因此盖茨宣布他将用一名三星中将取代现在的二星少将大卫•希内茨成为五角大楼负责该项目的主任。盖茨说，还将削减该项目承包商的奖金。这个项目的承包商是洛克希德•马丁公司。

The review seeks to break with the old requirement that America should be able to fight two major wars at the same time. Mr Gates said America has already been fighting big conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, but had to “prepare for a much broader range of security challenges on the horizon”. What practical changes this entails is not yet clear. The 2006 QDR already foresaw that America had to deal with a range of crises, and Mr Gates’s review only tinkers with America’s military structure.

以往要求美国具有同时进行两场大规模战争的能力，而这份《四年防务评估报告》要打破这一战略。盖茨指出，美国已经是在伊拉克与阿富汗进行着两场大规模战争，而且必须“在更加宽广的战线上迎接即将出现的（对美国）安全的挑战”。这将导致什么样的具体变化尚不明了。2006年版的QDR已经预见到美国必须应付一系列的危机，而盖茨先生的此份报告不过是对美国的军事结构进行了一些拙劣的修补。

The QDR foresees a world in which political, economic and military power is “more diffuse”. With the rise of China and India, America “will remain the most powerful actor but must increasingly work with key allies and partners”. Yet for now, Mr Gates reckons the most immediate factor affecting America’s future security is whether it wins or loses today’s wars.

这份QDR预见，今后的世界里政治、经济与军事实力将更加分散。伴随着中国与印度的崛起，美国“依然能够是世界上最强大的国家，在世界事务中发挥最主要的作用，但必须不断增加重要盟国与合作伙伴的协同”。然而眼下，盖茨认为影响美国今后安全最紧迫的是能否打赢目前正在进行的战争。

附注：dodge the bullet
If someone has dodged a bullet, they have successfully avoided a very serious problem.

译者：dqzxf
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30792

The state-of-the-union speech
奥巴马的国情咨文

The limits to verbiage
不说废话

The president’s speech was underwhelming, which was probably better than the alternative
总统演说并不精彩，也许这样更好

Jan 28th 2010 | From The Economist online

one thing you can generally count on when the lanky figure of Barack Obama approaches a podium is that you will hear a good speech; and the more trouble he is in, the better the speech is likely to be. He has never spoken more powerfully than just after losing the New Hampshire primary back in January 2008, or when the eruption of his pastor, Jeremiah Wright, threatened to derail him later that year. For his first state-of-the-union message on January 27th, the president needed something extra-special. His ratings are down below 50%, and the loss of a crucial Senate seat in Massachusetts a week earlier means that much of his domestic agenda, notably his efforts to reform health care, is stalled if not dead. But in place of the mighty oratory one might have expected, the president delivered an inordinately long, unrepentant but ultimately rather cautious speech that eschewed the tub-thumping and delivered a little bit to everyone.

当你看到奥巴马瘦长的身影走向演讲台的时候，你可以确定的一件事是，你将听到一场不错的演讲。并且，他越是麻烦缠身，他的演讲就越是精彩。他在2008年1月丢掉新罕布什尔州后或当年年底其牧师Jeremiah Wright威胁要抛弃他时的演说，声势都超越以往。1月27号在他的第一份国情咨文中，奥巴马总统需要一些特别不同的东西。他的支持率不到50%，而马萨诸塞州一个重要参议院席位的丢失意味着他很多的国内事务，特别是他的医改，即使不算完全没戏，至少也会受到阻碍。但是没有人们期待的说服力强的雄辩，总统带来的是一次相当长、没有后悔意味、但是总的说来很小心谨慎的演说，没有慷慨激昂，但涉及到了每一个人。

There were alternatives to the middle course he chose. He might have tacked to the right, in the hope of winning over Republicans, but he would probably have failed. He might have lurched to the left, embracing the sort of populism that seemed presaged by his post-Massachusetts declaration that he was “ready for a fight” with the banks, but that would have alienated the centre. So he chose to remain, just about, the pragmatist whom this newspaper endorsed back in November 2008. But he gave no sign of how he plans to pursue his agenda or solve the problems that are piling up around him.

除他选择的中间路线外，还有其他路线。他可能偏向过右翼，以期待获得共和党人的支持，但是他很可能已经失败。他可能倒向过左翼，信奉人民主义，这可从其后马萨诸塞州宣言中感觉出来，宣言中他宣布他做好了与银行战斗的准备。但是这会使他疏远中间派。所以，他决定继续担任本报于2008年11月支持的那个实用主义者的角色。但是如何达到他的目的，如何解决越积越多的问题，他还没有给出答案。

But what are you going to do about it?但是，你准备怎么办？

On the economy, Mr Obama tickled middle-class voters with a small-change package of family-oriented tax credits for child-care, student loans and suchlike. This sort of micro-targeting worked for Bill Clinton when he found himself in a hole, but Mr Obama faces a far harsher economic environment. Unless the economy starts to recover powerfully enough to cut America’s high unemployment levels, this modest set of policies will seem footling. Such tiny giveaways are unlikely to help assuage Americans’ growing sense that this is an administration that has expended more effort on advancing long-held liberal dreams, like universal health care, than on securing middle-class jobs, nor to allay their suspicion that bail-outs are only for bankers. There is a deep populist anger brewing in America, and Mr Obama risks having cooled it barely at all.

关于经济问题，奥巴马对儿童保育，学生贷款等家庭导向型税收优惠的细小调整让中产阶级有些动心。这种微观解决方式在克林顿陷入困境时起过作用，但是奥巴马面对的是更加艰难的经济环境。除非经济强劲反弹的力度大到能将美国的高失业率降下来，不然这种动作不大的政策将作用有限。美国人越来越担忧，这届政府更关心的是实现自由主义者的夙愿，比如全民医保，而不是为中产阶级的工作提供保障，所以这样的小恩小惠很难减轻这种担忧，也很难消减民众对于经济救援只有银行家收益的怀疑。在美国，民众的怒火在酝酿、焚烧，而奥巴马很有可能根本熄灭不了。

The same is true for his efforts at fiscal rectitude. The Obama team has read the runes of Massachusetts, and has observed that one of the things that most angered voters there was the size of the deficit. Rightly so: the Congressional Budget Office gave warning this week that the deficit would run at more than $1.3 trillion this year, as a proportion of GDP the second-worst since the war (the worst was last year), with a long line of horrors to come. But the president’s response was another exercise in having it both ways. His promise to freeze non-security discretionary spending for three years was meant to reassure people who worry about a poisonous legacy of debt. But once military spending and entitlements (such as government-provided health insurance for the poor and the elderly, and Social Security) are stripped out, less than a fifth of the budget is left to freeze: and that freeze would be counteracted by the jobs bill that Mr Obama urged Congress to pass.

财政方面所遇的情况也差不多。奥巴马的团队已经看过麻省的材料，并已经觉察到赤字规模是最让民众愤怒的事情之一。民众有着资格：本周国会预算办公室警告，今年的赤字将超过1.3万亿美元。如果换算成占GDP的比重，这会是战后第二糟糕的（去年最糟糕），并且麻烦还将接踵而至。但是总统的回应又是模棱两可。他承诺将把不稳定可自由支配开支冻结3年，这只是为了让人们别担心危险的积累负债。但是在除去开军费开支和政府津贴（比如政府负担的给穷人和老人的医疗保险，还有社会保障）后，可以被冻结的预算还不到五分之一：而剩下的这一部分要将被奥巴马敦促国会通过的就业法案抵消。

America cannot return to budgetary health without tackling entitlements. Mr Obama said he wants a bipartisan commission to figure out how to get the deficit down. The Senate voted down just such a plan the day before his big speech. Mr Obama therefore intends to set up one of his own. But the chances of Congress accepting (or perhaps even debating) the commission’s recommendations hardly seem encouraging in light of the rejection. A better speech would have laid out an outline for a return to fiscal health, not subcontracted it.

不解决政府津贴问题，美国的预算就不可能走上健康的轨道。奥巴马说他需要一个两党联立的委员会来研究削减赤字的路径。在他发表演讲的前一天，参议院就否决了这一计划。于是奥巴马想自己成立一个。但是鉴于这一否决，国会通过（或者说商讨）该委员会意见的几率不令人鼓舞。一个更好的演讲应该是为财政健康的恢复提出基本思路，而不是将它转交给别人。

Other questions remain unanswered. Is Mr Obama ready to fight hard for the things he said he believed in when he ran for office—health-care reform, a cap-and-trade system to rein in America’s carbon-dioxide emissions, the rebuilding of America’s schools? Will he act on his promise to impose sanctions on Iran? The answer to all those questions, he said, is yes. But he gave not the slightest clue how he intends to accomplish any of it. He could, for instance, have urged the House to pass the Senate health bill, which is imperfect but better than nothing; or he could have reached out to Republicans by offering compromises. He did neither, and that was a waste of a podium.

还有其他问题没有得到回答。竞选时奥巴马提到的那些信仰，比如医改，控制美国碳排量的限额交易机制，美国学校的重建，他会为此全力以赴吗？他会实践自己关于制裁伊朗的诺言吗？对于所有这些问题，他说，肯定。但是打算如何实现它们，他却没有给出任何思路。他可以，比方说，促使众议院通过参议院的医保议案，即使它有遗憾之处，但也比没有强。或者， 他可以和共和党交换些条件。但是，他都没做。这就有点浪费演讲台的作用了。

Free speech for me, but not for thee
只许州官放火 不许百姓点灯

Sep 10th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The Supreme Court ponders whether speech curbs are constitutional
最高法院就是否立法限制言论自由进行探讨

“HILLARY: THE MOVIE” is unwatchable. From the first frame, it presents a dreary caricature of Hillary Clinton as a power-crazed harpy with no redeeming qualities. She is cynical, manipulative, dishonest and ruthless—and so on for 90 excruciating minutes. Wasn’t there at least a dog she once omitted to kick, or a child whose lollipop she didn’t steal?
“希拉里：大电影”禁止公映。第一项罪名，这部影片用低劣的手法对希拉里-克林顿进行了讽刺，将她描述为一个对追求权力狂热到无以复加的人物。她愤世嫉俗，善于操控，虚伪且毫不留情—而这一切乐此不疲的持续了让人难熬的90分钟。是不是有只狗她忘了踹上一脚，或是有个孩子的棒棒糖她还没偷？
继续阅读“”

Defending Manhattan 保卫曼哈顿 Extending the ring of steel 扩大“铁圈” Oct 8th 2009 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition New York expands its counterterrorism monitoring system 纽约市对反恐监视系统进行扩网 Here’s looking at you 你正在被监视 继续阅读“”

A year after Lehman Brothers collapsed

The promised bland

Sep 15th 2009
From Economist.com
Barack Obama marks a year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers with a speech to Wall Street
奥巴马在金融街发表一年后就雷曼兄弟倒塌后的演讲

继续阅读“”

Mercury in fish
鱼之毒

Hold the sushi
寿司且慢用

Aug 27th 2009 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

A pollution trail from the streams to the ocean
百川入海，污染相伴
继续阅读“”

The Texas governor’s race
得州州长竞选

A showdown with tumbleweeds
摊派

Aug 27th 2009 | AUSTIN
From The Economist print edition

The Democrats are still unable to get their act together
民主党还是不能统一对外

Hutchison’s harder than she looks面难心更难
继续阅读“”

Signs of economic cheer
经济复苏的前奏

The sun also rises
日升如故，阴霾潜伏

Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed

虽然经济渐别衰退，但是面对居高不下的失业率，要想庆祝还为时尚早

继续阅读“”

Lexington
列克星敦

The Obama cult
奥巴马粉丝团

Jul 23rd 2009
From The Economist print edition

If Barack Obama disappoints his supporters, they will have only themselves to blame
如果巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）让其支持者失望了，那也只能怨他们自己！

IN JANUARY 2007 Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, said he was running for president to revive “our national soul”. He was not alone in taking an expansive view of presidential responsibilities. With the exception of Ron Paul, all the serious candidates waxed grandiloquent about their aims. John McCain said he modelled himself on Teddy Roosevelt, a man who “nourished the soul of a great nation”. Hillary Clinton lamented that America had no goals, and offered to supply some. And let us not forget the man they all sought to replace, George Bush, who promised, among other things, to “rid the world of evil”. Appalled by such hubris, a libertarian scholar called Gene Healy wrote “The Cult of the Presidency”, a book decrying the unrealistic expectations Americans have of their presidents. The book was written while Barack Obama’s career was still on the launch pad, yet it describes with uncanny prescience the atmosphere that allowed him to soar.
2007年一月，阿肯色州的前任州长麦克·哈克比（Mike Huckabee）宣称自己竞选总统是为了重塑“民族之魂”。他并不是唯一一个以如此自大的眼光看待总统职责的人。除了罗恩·保罗（Ron Paul），其余所有主要候选人都在往自己脸上贴金，大言不惭的鼓出自己的执政目标。约翰·麦凯恩（John Macain）表示，自己将以泰迪·罗斯福（Teddy Roosevelt）为榜样，因为后者“塑造了一个伟大国家的民族魂”。希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）因为觉得美国缺乏目标而痛惜不已，并且表示愿意为美国找寻前进的方向。还有，别忘了这些人力图要接替的那个家伙——乔治·布什（George Bush），他曾经在一堆承诺中表示要“让世界摆脱邪恶”。面对如此惊人的狂妄言论，一位叫做基恩·希利（Gene Healy）的自由论学者撰写了一部题为《总统崇拜》的书，公开反对美国民众对总统不切实际的期望。这本书是在巴拉克·奥巴马的事业还在起步阶段的时候写的，但是作者却不可思议的预见到了日后让他如日中天的大环境。
继续阅读“”

Lexington
列克星敦

The passing of Palin
Jul 9th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Sarah Palin will never be president. But her resignation leaves a gap in American politics
萨拉佩林不会当总统，但她的辞职给美国政治留下了一个真空。

继续阅读“”