Lexington
列克星敦

The passing of Palin
Jul 9th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Sarah Palin will never be president. But her resignation leaves a gap in American politics
萨拉佩林不会当总统，但她的辞职给美国政治留下了一个真空。

ON A trip to Alaska three years ago, Lexington watched a former small-town mayor perform in a Republican primary debate. One of her rivals was the sitting governor, a man of far greater political experience. She trounced him. Granted, he was so dull that even his campaign song admitted it. Still, it was an arresting performance.

三年前去了一趟阿拉斯加，我看了过一场共和党初选辩论，其中那个参与者在当时还是一个小城的市长。她的辩论对手，其中之一，是阿拉斯加当时的在任州长，政治经验远远胜出。然而她在辩论中却精彩取胜。州长掉以轻心，表现糟糕，连自己的竞选歌曲都承认他乏善可陈。不过，那位女市长的表现也确实令人惊叹。

Strange to recall, when John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running-mate last year, almost no one had heard of her. Now she is the most divisive figure in America. To mention her name at a dinner party in the highly educated liberal suburb where Lexington lives is to ask for trouble. “Moron”, “idiot” and “megalomaniac” are some of the gentler epithets that will be used. Some will admit to hating her. Many will guffaw at her trashy family. Yet half the country loves her.

我们回想起来，去年麦凯恩把萨拉佩林选为竞选伙伴，当时几乎没有人听说过她，也是一件怪事。到现在，佩林已然是美国最具争议性的人物。我住的地方是受高等教育的自由派人士聚集的郊区，我们举行晚餐会，你要提这个女人的名字，那无疑是想来点麻烦。在这里佩林的外号，举几个稍微文雅点的，也就是“白痴”，“弱智”和“吹牛皮”了。会有人承认十分讨厌她。谈到她家里那些混账事情，不少人会大笑不止。然而，这个国家仍然有另一半的人，觉得她十分可爱。

A Pew poll last month found that Americans’ opinions of Mrs Palin were evenly balanced. A hefty 44% took a dim view of her, while 45% took a rosy one. Among Republicans, she scored a whopping 73% approval rating, far outpacing any other plausible contender for the party’s presidential nomination in 2012. Of course, that poll was taken before she announced, on July 3rd, that she would step down as governor of Alaska without finishing her term. This bombshell was unexpected, and makes it highly unlikely that she will ever be president. Asked what they seek in a commander-in-chief, few Americans cite a tendency to cut and run when the going gets tough.

上月的一份佩尤机构发出一份调查，结果是美国人对佩林女士的看法是一半一半。高达44%的人看衰她，而另45%则认为她前途光明。在共和党内部，她的支持率更是达到了极高的73%，遥遥领先于其他可能的2012年党内总统提名的竞争者。当然，调查是在7月三号佩林宣布将在任期满前辞去阿拉斯加州长之前进行的。这个爆炸性新闻事出突然。此事发生，使佩林的总统前景变得不太可能，因为如果你问美国人对三军司令的要求的话，没有人会选那种往往在艰难时刻选择脱身而逃的人。

Mrs Palin may know this. She may have decided that the hazing of a presidential campaign is simply not worth the uncertain reward. Her resignation speech was rambling and often incoherent, but she made it clear that she has not had much fun of late. Before she was thrust under the national spotlight, she was an extremely popular governor who got on well with Democrats and worked with them on practical projects such as a gas pipeline. Now, she complains, the Democrats in Alaska won’t work with her any more. “Political operatives” have descended on the state to dig up dirt and file ethics complaints against her. This has saddled her with half a million dollars in legal bills and made her job impossible. She also mentioned not liking some of the press coverage she and her family have endured.

佩林女士也许对此也清楚。她可能觉得劳苦劳累地竞选那并不是十拿九稳的总统职位并不值得。也许她的辞去州长职位的演说讲得游移不定，还常常前文不搭后文，但有一点她却讲的很明白，就是最近她的日子并不太好过。在仓促地被推到全国的聚光灯下前，她是一位极受欢迎的州长，与民主党人很处得来，而且在实际项目中共同合作，例如阿拉斯加的石油管道工程。现在呢，她的抱怨来了，因为阿拉斯加的民主党人再也不和她合作了。有“政治特工”已经赶来她的州，挖她的黑幕，投诉她的工作道德。这些东西让佩林身背50万美元的法律费用，也让她的工作无以为继。她也提到她对媒体对她和她家人的一些报道不甚喜欢。

To half the country, this sounds like pathetic whining. Politics is a tough business. If you can’t cope with harsh criticism, perhaps you should find a less demanding line of work, such as making lucrative speeches to friendly audiences. To the other half of the country, however, Mrs Palin’s complaints ring true. And the divide is largely a cultural one. Many liberal or well-educated Americans feel it their patriotic duty to point out that the Caribou Barbie is far too ignorant to be allowed anywhere near the White House. But many rural and working-class whites adore her, and resent the way she has been ridiculed.

佩林的这些话，对于有一半的美国人来说，像是无聊而可悲的哭诉。政治就是那么一项艰难的工作。你要是无法面对严厉的批评，那也许你应该找点其他事情做，要求不那么高的，比如去发表演说，听众必须选支持你的听众，还能赚个盆满钵满。可对于另外一半的美国人，佩林女士的抱怨听起来却是真真切切。这种分野很大程度上是文化上的。不少受过高等教育的自由派美国人觉得佩林这个芭比娃娃实在无知，所以决不能允许她和白宫有半点瓜葛。指出这点，是出于爱国的责任。可是对很多乡下的人和工人阶程却对佩林十分喜欢，对佩林承受的那些讽刺羞辱很不高兴。

This divide matters. Many Americans want as president someone who is exceptionally well-informed about public policy, who surrounds himself with experts, who weighs the evidence and then does what is best for the country. But few people are policy experts, so they often follow their hearts rather than their heads when deciding whom to vote for. Often, they assume that someone culturally similar to themselves will be more likely to look out for their interests. And that is why Mrs Palin is still so popular. There are an awful lot of Americans who see her as one of their own. She talks like them. She guts her own fish. She wears her faith on her sleeve. She obviously didn’t go to Harvard. And when people who did call her stupid or mock her faith or her family, her fans take it personally.

这种分野意义重大。多数美国人希望总统对公共政策了如指掌，身边全是各种专家，充分考量情况后做出对国家最有利的决策。但政策老手毕竟是少数，于是美国人选总统，往往是用感情选而不是用脑子选。很多时候，他们觉得与他们在文化上相似的人选，更有可能去争取他们的利益。佩林女士现在仍受欢迎的原因就在于此。她像普通民众一样讲话。她自己把自己的事情安顿好。她随时随地的都坚持她的信仰。显然她并非出身于哈佛之类名校。当有人嘲笑她愚蠢，或者嘲笑她的信念时，佩林的粉丝们就觉得是在嘲笑他们自己，而往心里去了。

The kind of people who support Mrs Palin have several grievances. They are less well-educated than the American average, so the labour market has been unkind to them for years. They are often white and male, but they do not feel privileged and they often chafe at the way affirmative-action policies discriminate against them. In short, they are the Republican Party’s base. There are not enough of them to decide a general election, but more than enough to decide a primary. And that leaves the Republicans in a bind. Party bigwigs do not want Mrs Palin to be their nominee, not least because they think she would be sure to lose to Barack Obama. They hope that her resignation has opened a space for a less polarising and more competent candidate.

支持佩林女士的人们颇有几处不平。他们的教育程度低于美国一般水平，所以在劳动力市场中他们的待遇长期不佳。他们很多是白人男性，但是却感受不到一丝优越，对美国优待少数民族的社会计划，常觉得对他们不公平而十分焦躁。简单来讲，他们是共和党人的基本盘。要左右一场大选，他们的人数仍然有限，但要左右一场党内初选，人数则绰绰有余。这个情况让共和党人处境尴尬。党内大佬们不愿佩林得到提名，且不消说他们认为佩林遇上奥巴马会绝对败北。他们的希望是以佩林的辞职，给更有能力而不那么两极分化的竞选人以空间。

Rudderless Republicans
But who? Mark Sanford, the governor of South Carolina and a prominent fiscal conservative, disqualified himself last month by giving a news conference to explain how much he loved his mistress. Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, is young, moderate and evangelical but has yet to set national pulses racing. Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, is doing well in the polls. As a successful businessman and the architect of his state’s universal health-insurance system, he passes the competence test. But he lacks the common touch. Jon Huntsman, a former governor of Utah and soon-to-be ambassador to China, is impressive but little known. Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas and Baptist preacher, is charismatic but too preachy for some. None of these candidates has Mrs Palin’s star power.

群龙无主的共和党
可谁是这个人呢？南卡罗来纳州州长马克 桑福德，一个极富声望的财政保守主义者，上月开了一个记者会，阐明他对情妇那深深的爱，于是已经从人选中被剔除。明尼苏达州州长蒂姆 波朗迪年轻，温和还是基督徒，却还没有让整个国家为之着迷。前马萨诸塞州州长密特 罗姆尼在民意调查中成绩不错。过去作为一个成功的商人和麻州全民医疗保险系统的设计师，罗姆尼的能力可以通过考验。但他缺的是平易近人的感觉。前犹他州州长亨特曼即将赴任驻中国大使，他令人印象深刻但却不是家喻户晓。前阿肯色州州长麦克 哈克比是个浸礼会牧师，讲话有领袖魅力但在有些人看起来太像布道了。这些候选人，没有一个有佩林女士的明星效应。

The primaries are nearly three years away, so much could change. If the economy recovers, Mr Obama will be hard to beat. But if unemployment stays high and the debt looks terrible he is in trouble. The same goes for the Democrats in Congress. Their majorities are so large that the Republicans will probably fail to recapture either the House or the Senate in 2010. But they could well make gains. The key test will be whether the party can find a leader who will enthuse its Palin wing without pandering to it. And that will be harder than a frozen moose. You betcha.

现在距离下一次初选约有三年，一切都还有变数。如果经济恢复，那么奥巴马总统将难以击败。但如果失业率居高不下，政府债务状况糟糕的话，那奥巴马的麻烦就来了。对国会中的民主党来说，也是一个道理。民主党多数优势明显，共和党在即便在2010年想重掌参众两院其中之一，也可能会失败。但是他们的势力会有所增加。关键的考验，将在于共和党能否找到一个能够动员佩林派选民的领袖，但是又不能对他们过分讨好。要找到这个人的难度是九曲十八弯，那还用得着说么。