Signs of economic cheer
经济复苏的前奏

The sun also rises
日升如故，阴霾潜伏

Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed

虽然经济渐别衰退，但是面对居高不下的失业率，要想庆祝还为时尚早

WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.

今年二月初，就职数周后的奥巴马总统来到印第安纳州小城埃尔克哈特（Elkhart，位于美国印第安纳州北部，埃尔克哈特县县治），对其进行考察。本次埃县之行，局势并不乐观。过去一年来，县内失业率翻了三倍多，飙升至18.3%。针对经济颓势，总统言辞恳切地坚称“对此袖手旁观只会使局面恶化”，希望能促使国会通过一项大规模的财政刺激政策。八月五日，奥巴马重返埃县视察。此时的他颇为神采奕奕；并宣称，当地工厂正“重现生机”。此前几日不久，奥巴马就对外宣布，经济形式与预期相比有“适度好转”。

Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.

奥巴马的乐观论调并非空穴来风。的确，美国经济似乎正在走出萧条阴影。七月三十一日，政府报告指出，虽然第二季度的实际国民生产总值（GDP）仍有萎缩，但其萎缩速度已减少至年均1%。此项萎缩多半反映出企业在想方设法地保持厂房闲置，限制工时，并尽量利用现有存货来交付订单。目前，存货已近清空，生产重启也是指日可待。

The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualized 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.

七月份已出炉的各项数据均显示出复苏迹象，市场信心也由此增强。本季度GDP增长预计将达到3%。其中一项生产活动指数更是创下自去年八月来的最高水平，上升态势强劲。厂商报告也显示订单增势旺盛，达到两年多来的最佳状态。汽车销售额跃升15%，达年均1120万辆。各大汽车制造商都在补充产能。现房销售也有上涨。甚至连饱尝萧条之痛的埃尔克哈特也传来振奋人心的消息：车载娱乐部件提供商多美达（Dometic）于八月四日称，得益于当地政府的经济刺激措施，公司在埃县将新增240个工作岗位。

Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression.

奥巴马总统在其顾问团的协助下，为推动经济复苏不失时机地出台了金额达7870亿美元的财政刺激计划。目前，该计划的实际收效相对而言并不显著。去年秋季，政府对金融体系进行了包括公共资本、贷款及贷款担保在内的大规模注资；今年春季又对银行进行了压力测试。这些举措都比上述财政刺激计划更为有效。在这些措施的助力下，资产价格下跌的势头得到有效遏止；挤兑风潮和银行倒闭的危机得到解除；同时也缓解了经济进一步恶化的风险。

One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.

最令人鼓舞的消息来自房地产市场。今年四至五月，“标普/凯斯-希勒20城市房价指数”仅下跌0.2%，创两年来最小跌幅。而稳定的房价不仅是减少贷款违约率的灵丹妙药，也将在重振银行资产平衡和恢复信贷流动方面大显身手。

Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.

与经济好转相反，奥巴马的支持率尽管仍保持在高位，却已开始不断下滑。其部分原因在于，作为最为重要的经济指标，就业率依然令人讶异地徘徊在较低水平。失业率与经济增长之间往往存在反向变动关系，这一规律最早于20世纪60年代由经济学家亚瑟•奥肯（Arthur Okun）发现。但在本次经济危机中，失业率的攀升却远超出奥肯定律公式所作出的估计。

The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.

一项对早先GDP数据的修订解释了两者之间的部分差异。这项上周发布的修订表明，自2007年底以来，GDP累计下降了3.7%，与1957至58年持平，一同成为美国自大萧条以来最为严重的经济衰退（修订之前的数据则为2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的经济学家迈克尔•费拉里（Michael Feroli）却指出，根据奥肯定律，第二季度的失业率预计将为8.6%，而实际上这一数字平均达到了9.3%。

Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.

在这背后起作用的因素不止一个。据美联储称，失业保险福利的扩大给了一些失业工人继续寻找工作的激励，使得他们不愿意彻底退出劳动力大军（译者:退出劳动力队伍后便失去继续领取失业保险金的资格）。这有可能对失业率上升了贡献了半个百分点。财产缩水的痛苦促使人们去找寻新的工作，而不愿干脆赋闲在家享受儿孙绕膝之乐。

And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls. Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch. Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery. Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins. Robert Hall of Stanford University, who heads the academic committee that dates recessions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during recessions: “When productivity rises, the law fails. Though I was a great fan of Okun’s, I’m afraid his law is obsolete.”

公司减薪之迅速也叫人始料未及。有一些公司可能出于信贷紧缩的考虑而更谨慎地管理资金，而另一些则只是出于对复苏前景持悲观态度。但不论原因为何，其结果是导致生产率上升，对保持利润空间起到了缓冲作用。斯坦福大学经济周期测定委员会的领头人罗伯特•霍尔（Robert Hall）指出，在奥肯定律适用的时期，经济衰退的发生常常伴随着生产率的下降：“如果生产率上升，该规律就不再适用。尽管我十分崇敬奥肯，但他的研究在今天已经过时了。”

The difference with Europe is especially striking. In the euro zone GDP has fallen further than in America but unemployment has risen less (see chart). Employers are slower to sack workers than in America, partly thanks to government subsidies that encourage them to shorten working hours instead (see article). This means that European unemployment will probably be slow to fall once GDP recovers.

欧洲的情况与美国大相径庭。欧元区的GDP下跌幅度超过了美国，但失业率却升幅较小（如图）。欧洲的雇主们解雇工人往往没有美国同行们那么迅速；这要部分得益于政府对雇主进行补贴的举措。政府以此鼓励雇主削减工时，从而保留工作岗位。同时这也意味着一旦欧洲GDP回升，其失业率的下降也将较为缓慢。

But it looks as if it will be slow to come down in America as well. Firms are unlikely to do much hiring until growth seems durable, and so far it does not. Replenishing inventory will be a temporary fillip without an increase in consumer demand. Car sales have been strong in great part because of the federal cash-for-clunkers programme, which allows Americans to get up to $4,500 for their old car when they exchange it for a new one. The programme was supposed to run until November 1st but its $1 billion was snapped up within days of its start on July 24th. The House of Representatives has voted for an extra $2 billion and at mid-week the Senate was expected to do likewise. But cars bought now may mean fewer cars bought later.

胆照现在美国的情况看来，失业率的下降也尚需时日。在增长得到稳定之前，企业不可能大量地增加雇佣岗位。况且当前的复苏迹象仍然十分脆弱。没有消费者需求的增加，补充库存充其量只能对经济起到短暂的刺激效果。汽车销售的强劲增长在很大程度上要归功于联邦旧车换现金计划，该计划规定，当美国人买进新车时，对更换的旧车可获得高达4500美元现金。本计划原定于11月1日到期，但自7月24日该计划实施以来，短短几天之内人们就将这10亿美元补贴一抢而光。众议院由此投票通过，决定额外追加20亿美元。预计本周三这项追加在参议院也将获得通过。但是今天市场的火爆恐将导致日后销量的流失。

If growth peters out again later this year, it will dash the expectations Mr Obama has done so much to raise by touting his stimulus. Dick Moore, Elkhart’s mayor, has been so enthusiastic about federal support that some county officials harrumph that he sleeps in Obama pyjamas. Though the president obligingly promised $39m for a local unit of Navistar to make electric trucks, it will take time for the firm to scale up production and hire workers. Meanwhile, Dorinda Heiden-Guss, who heads the county’s economic-development group, has been barraged with requests from companies seeking incentives. But many of them do so without a semblance of a business plan.

如果今年后半年增长势头消退，那么奥巴马通过四处推销其刺激政策、好不容易苦心经营起来的那点市场预期最终也会化为泡影。埃尔克哈特市长迪克•摩尔（Dick Moore）对联邦政府的支持政策十分充满热情；一些县级官员因此对他颇有不满，甚至讥讽他“内衣上都打着奥巴马的口号”。尽管奥巴马热心地向海星公司（Navistar）在埃县当地的部门承诺，为其电动卡车的生产提供3900万美元的资金；但公司要扩大生产及雇佣规模都需假以时日。与此同时，县经济发展小组组长多琳达（Dorinda Heiden-Guss）则身陷多家公司寻求经济援助的枪林弹雨之中。而其中大部分公司甚至连个像样的商业计划都没有就来要求资助。

Another caveat: all numbers are subject to revision, perhaps years later. Even the Depression is getting worse. According to the latest revisions, GDP fell 26.7% between 1929 and 1933: the pre-revision figure was a mere 26.6%. Today’s green shoots could still be revised away.

警世之言不嫌多：大概过些年以后，所有的经济数字都需要进行修订。据最新的统计显示，大萧条时期的经济状况要比之前更糟。1929至1933年间，GDP萎缩了26.7%，而非修订之前的26.6%。同样，今日脆弱的复苏萌芽一经过修订，或许也将消失殆尽。