The Texas governor’s race
得州州长竞选
A showdown with tumbleweeds
摊派
Aug 27th 2009 | AUSTIN
From The Economist print edition
The Democrats are still unable to get their act together
民主党还是不能统一对外
Hutchison’s harder than she looks面难心更难
TEXAS is a conservative state. Republicans control both houses of the legislature, there are no Democrats in statewide office, and in the last presidential election Big Red went for John McCain by a 12-point margin. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the state’s senior senator, is generally considered its most popular Republican. But now Mrs Hutchison is running for governor, and in her first few campaign events she has taken a modest and moderate outlook.
得克萨斯是一个保守的州。共和党控制着参众两院，没有任何民主党人担任州级职务，况且上次大选，共和党支持的麦凯恩以12票的差距落败。州级资深参议员Kay Bailey Hutchison被普遍认为是最受欢迎的共和党人。而她现在正在竞选州长，在她最初的几个竞选活动中，她打扮地温良端庄。
On August 21st she held a small rally in the National Cowgirl Museum in Fort Worth. The speakers who introduced the senator spoke about the party’s need to be inclusive, to nurture a majority, and not to frighten voters with talk of secession. Then Mrs Hutchison, poised in pearls, took the stage to the strains of “God Blessed Texas”, a country song. “Think about it,” she said. “If Texas starts going Democrat we will never elect a Republican president again.” She said that she would welcome everyone to her coalition as long as they supported lower taxes, limited government and private-property rights.
8月21日，在沃斯堡的国家女牛仔博物馆中，她举办了一个小型的集会。介绍参议员的演讲者们谈论共和党需要包容，培养大多数选民，不要用脱离联邦的言论把投票者吓走了。之后Hutchison夫人带着珍珠，登台哼唱着一首乡村歌曲《上帝保佑得克萨斯州》。“想想吧”她说，“如果德克萨斯转向民主党，我们就再也不能选出一位共和党的总统了。”她说任何人，只要支持降低税率，有限政府和保护私人财产的权利，我都欢迎他加入我们的联盟。
The list was notable for its omissions. After the rally a supporter from Weatherford explained that he was staunchly against abortion. But he thought that Republicans should set aside the issue because it would be a big distraction, politically speaking. He was trying to figure out how to explain that to people at his church.
上述三个条件很明显少了反对堕胎。集会之后，一个来自威瑟福德的支持者解释说他坚决反对堕胎。但是他认为共和党人应该把这些事先放一边，因为从政治角度来说，这些事非常分心。他还试图寻找方法，看如何把这个道理讲个他教区的教民听。
America will have some three dozen governor’s elections in 2010. With the possible exception of the roller-derby in California, none will create as much commotion as the contest in Texas. The wolfish incumbent, Rick Perry, is an outspoken social and fiscal conservative who has clanged heads with the Obama administration on several occasions. His opponent, Mrs Hutchison, is staking her candidacy on her ability to bring independents and moderates into the fold for the Republican primary. Both are prepared to duke it out. The Hutchison campaign is blasting Mr Perry for trying to hang on too long, and Mr Perry has dispatched a “Kay Bailout Express” to his challenger’s campaign stops.
2010年，美国将会举行36场州长竞选。除了加利福尼亚竞选可能性的例外，没有哪个州可以像得克萨斯州，创造出像竞选一样多的暴乱。得州现任州长Rick Perry雄心勃勃，在社会经济的问题上，他是一个坦率的保守派，曾经屡次和奥巴马针锋相对，而他的竞争对手Hutchison夫人，凭借把独立派和温和派带回共和党初选的能力，奠定了自己的候选人地位。两人都做好了一决高下的准备。Hutchison夫人的竞选活动，针对Perry在州长位子上赖着不走，发起猛烈的抨击。而Perry已经派出Kay援助快递，到Hutchison夫人的竞选地巡回。
It promises to be a good showdown. But apart from the fireworks, the race is being watched for the light it sheds on Texas’s changing political landscape. Mrs Hutchison has to tack to the centre because Mr is strong on the right. But as her comments in Fort Worth suggest, Texas Republicans are not as confident as they once were.
这必将是个不错的摊派。但是缺少了激烈争论，竞选就将聚焦在德克萨斯州政治面貌的变化上。Hutchison夫人不得不转向中庸，因为Perry在右翼非常强大。但正如她在沃斯堡的演讲中提到的，得克萨斯州的共和党不像以前那么自信了。
Over the past few years they have seen their advantage in the state House of Representatives dwindle to a mere two votes, out of 150. Democrats swept the Dallas County elections in 2006 and nearly repeated the feat in Harris County, which encompasses Houston, two years later. Jamaal Smith of the Harris County Democratic Party reckons that the Democrats are building their farm team on these down-ballot races, with statewide success to come. The Gallup poll, which surveys adults about their party identification, classes Texas as a “competitive” state, with a few more Democrats than Republicans. The Gallup poll is somewhat odd: it also has Mississippi and Kansas down as swingers. But Democrats feel good about the demographic trendlines. Texas is becoming younger, more Hispanic and more urban. In future presidential elections it will be a tempting prize.
在过去的几年里，共和党在德克萨斯众议院的优势已经减少到了150票中只有两票。民主党2006年席卷了达拉斯县，两年之后，在包围华盛顿的哈里斯县，民主党再次上演完胜。哈里斯县的民主党贾马尔•史密斯认为民主党正在得票低的选区建立分会，等待全州范围内成功的到来。调查成年人党派分属的盖洛普民意测验，把得克萨斯州划分为竞争激烈的州，州内的民主党略多于共和党。盖洛普民意测验有几分奇怪，把密西西比和堪萨斯州划分为墙头草。但是民主党对人口统计趋势感觉良好。得克萨斯州变得年轻了，西班牙化了，也更加城市化。未来的总统大选，这里将会是个必争之地。
For 2010, however, Texas Republicans have an ace in the hole: Texas Democrats. Technically, the winner of the Republican primary will face an opponent in the general election in November. But Texas Democrats are a curious breed. They are happy to mock Republicans, but when the time comes to run there are only a few tumbleweeds bouncing across the horizon.
尽管如此，2010年得克萨斯州共和党私底下有张王牌：德克萨斯的民主党。技术上说，共和党初选的获胜者将在十一月在普选中迎战对手。但是得克萨斯州的民主党真是个奇怪的品种。他们喜欢嘲笑共和党人，但是到了竞选的时候，却看不见什么人了。
“You gotta understand that there’s a game of musical chairs being played on the Republican ticket,” says Boyd Richie, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party. For example, if Mrs Hutchison resigns her Senate seat then Mr Perry might appoint David Dewhurst, the lieutenant-governor, to fill it. That would open up a race for the lieutenant-governor’s job. While Democrats speculate about lesser or notional races, however, the Republicans are busy actually campaigning for the big one.
“你得明白，在共和党的选票上大家玩着听音乐抢椅子的游戏”得克萨斯州民主党主席Boyd Richie如是说。举例来说，如果Hutchison夫人放弃议会的职务，那么Perry可能会指派副州长戴维•杜赫斯特去补缺。这就会开始一轮对副州长位子的争夺。民主党人思索的是少点的或者想象中的竞选，而共和党人真的是忙于参选重要的职位。
The Democrat with the strongest shot at statewide office is Bill White, the mayor of Houston. He is running for Mrs Hutchison’s Senate seat, though it is not too late for him to switch races. A few Democrats have thrown their hats in the gubernatorial ring. These include Kinky Friedman, a country singer and comedian who ran for governor last time around as an independent, and Tom Schieffer, a moderate who has some of the same talking points as Mrs Hutchison. Compared with her or Mr Perry, the Democratic contenders all lag in money, name recognition and party infrastructure. That will change, but time is tight. By the time Texas turns blue some other states may be reddening again.
对州级职位最虎视眈眈民主党人就是休士顿市长比尔•怀特。他在竞选Hutchison夫人的参议员位置，虽然改变竞选方向并不太晚。一些民主党人也参加到了州长的竞选中。这些人包括Kinky Friedman，一个乡村歌手，同时是一位喜剧演员，他上次作为独立候选人参选得州州长一职；Tom Schieffer，一个温和派，有些谈话要点和Hutchison夫人相同。与Hutchison夫人和Perry相比，共和党的竞争者在财力，知名度和党派的组织结构上稍逊一筹。这些都会改变，但是时间很紧。等得克萨斯州一片蓝色，其他州可能又被染红了。