China’s stockmarket 中国股市

 Another great leap 又一次大跃进

 Aug 27th 2009 | HONG KONG

From The Economist print edition

Share prices in China are once again unhinged 中国市场的股票价格再度脱缰

EVEN critics of China’s stockmarket would be hard-pressed to call it dull. After losing almost three-quarters of their value between late 2007 and the end of 2008, shares have gone back on the rampage. They are up by more than 70% this year, and that encompasses a wrenching 15% decline since late July (see chart). Combined, China’s two mainland bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen are second only to America’s, measured by the value of domestic listings. Activity is frenetic: the average share in China has changed hands three times so far this year. 即使是中国股市的批评家们也不得不承受着重重压力才能称目前的股市萧条。从2007年下半年到2008年末，中国股市几乎蒸发了四分之三的市值，如今已经狂冲乱跳着涨回来了。今年以来，股市上涨幅度超过70%，包括7月下旬开始的猛然震荡下跌，幅度达15%。以本国内上市公司的市值计算，中国大陆两个交易所——上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所——的总规模已经仅次于美国股市。中国股市狂热而活跃，年初至今，平均每只股票的换手率都有三次之多。

Since foreigners are largely barred from investing in the mainland Chinese market, what goes on in Shanghai and Shenzhen used to be largely of interest only to local punters. But now China’s position as the only big economy reporting strong growth, and the general scepticism surrounding the accuracy of the government statistics underlying these reports, has transformed the role of its equity market into a potentially unique source of information. Jing Ulrich, a regional strategist for JPMorgan, was bombarded with questions about China’s market on recent overseas travels in the hope they could elicit clues about the future course of the economy. Anecdotally at least, global stockmarkets have become more sensitive to Chinese gyrations, on the premise that they reflect real shifts in the country’s prosperity which have repercussions everywhere. 由于中国大陆市场对境外投资者有很大程度的限制，过去一直只有本土的投机客们对沪深两市有兴趣。不过，鉴于中国如今的地位是全球唯一一个增长强劲的经济体，而政府公布的官方统计数据又被普遍怀疑，中国股市的角色发生了转变——成为潜在的独一无二的信息源。摩根大通（JPMorgan）地区策略师李晶（Jing Ulrich）在近期的海外之旅中遭到了各种问题的连番轰炸，人们希望以此探出经济未来走向的线索。不管这些轶闻如何，全球股市已经对中国的波动变得更敏感，前提是这些波动反映了这个国家整体繁荣情况的真实转变。

Whether this reputation is deserved is an open question. The market’s remarkable rise comes with enough caveats to suggest it is priced as much by madness as by reason. On average, shares in China trade at 31 times trailing earnings, double the global average. Although this is less than half the stratospheric valuation that existed prior to the market’s crash last year, it can only be justified by remarkably strong and sustained earnings growth. 这些声誉是否名副其实有待验证。伴随着中国股市非凡的上涨，也冒出了足够多的警告，认为股票的定价一半由理性决定，一半则是由疯狂决定的。平均起来，中国股市上交易的股价超过其收益31倍，是全球平均水平的两倍。尽管与去年股市崩溃之前的最高估值水平比较，现在的估值不足其一半，但只有异常强劲和持续的利润增长才能证明这一水平合理。

There is evidence that business conditions are improving in China, but only by going from abysmal to merely bad. According to JPMorgan’s calculations, the year-on-year decline in industrial profits has ebbed from a dreadful 37% in February to a still awful 21% in June. The same story holds for the profits of companies listed on China’s exchanges. Profits were down by 26% in the first quarter. About half of all companies have reported their figures for the second quarter; earnings declined, on average, by 18% year-on-year. 有迹象显示中国的商业情况正在改善，但不过是从万丈深渊转变成只是糟糕而已。根据摩根大通的估算，2月份工业利润额同比下降幅度糟糕透顶，为37%，6月份收窄到21%，但仍然糟糕。中国证券交易所里那些上市公司的利润情况也是同样的故事。一季度的利润下滑了26%，目前有一半的上市公司公布了第二季度的数据，利润比去年同期平均下滑了18%。

Share prices should reflect future, not past profits, hence the hope that the rally in China cleverly looks beyond today’s problems to better times. In support of this, the consensus estimates of Chinese security analysts are that earnings will rise by 9% this year and 22% in 2010. A big bounce is not unprecedented. Demand for housing, which uncharacteristically (for China) dried up earlier in the year, has rebounded sharply. Only in southern China, hit particularly hard by the collapse in exports, do prices remain below their prior peaks. Retail sales continue to be strong. 股价应该反映未来，而不是过去的利润。因此，对中国股市重振旗鼓的希望实则是聪明地看到了未来更好的时光，而不是眼下的问题。支持这一观点正确的是，中国的证券分析师一致预期今年上市公司的利润会上升9%，到2010年上升22%。出现一次巨大的反弹并不是前所未有的。今年年初，房地产市场的需求出现了非典型的（对中国而言）消失，而后急剧反弹。由于出口萎缩对中国南方的打击尤其严重，目前只有这一个地区的房价仍然没有回到其历史高点。另外，零售市场始终保持强劲。

Taking a break from the serious gambling 在认真赌博之时小憩片刻

But even that sort of growth, if not followed by more of the same, does little to justify current prices and there are any number of reasons to be pessimistic. Exports, a core component of the Chinese economy, remain soft. Critical demand has come from a huge government stimulus plan that, by design, is transient. 即便是这些类型的增长，如果后续没有出现同样的增长跟上，现在的股价也很难站得住脚。而且，还有很多让人悲观的理由。出口是中国经济的核心组成部分，仍然疲软。关键的需求是来自于政府有意实施的巨额刺激计划，而这只是短暂的。

Of even greater concern is that much of the market’s strength may be the result of the abundant money sloshing around China, rather than a fundamental change in profit expectations. This would help explain why companies with dual listings in Hong Kong and the mainland have seen disproportionately large rises in their mainland shares. 更甚的忧虑是担心股市上涨的力量可能更多的是中国流动性泛滥的结果，而不是盈利预期发生了根本性的转变。这或许可以帮忙解释一个问题，那就是为什么同时在香港市场和大陆市场上市的公司，两地股价出现了不协调的增长幅度，大陆市场股价上涨大幅超过香港市场。

 One source of this liquidity is individuals, usually responsible for about three-quarters of all share purchases in China. Capital restrictions limit investment options to bank deposits (at low, government-mandated, rates), property, or the stockmarket. That the vertiginous rise in mainland share prices accompanied a decline in the rate of growth for money in longer-term time deposits suggests small investors may have shifted from the safety of banks to riskier market punts. 流动性的一个来源是个人，这通常归因于中国股市上四分之三的股票都是在国内购买。资本管制将投资者的投资选择限定在了三个选择上：银行存款（由政府法定的低利率）、不动产、股市。在大陆股价涨得令人眩晕的同时，中长期定期存款的增长率出现了下滑，这表明小投资者可能已经将投资阵地从安全性好的银行转到了更高风险的股票投机市场。

More controversially, there is widespread speculation that the tidal wave of bank lending initiated by the government as part of its stimulus plan has made its way into the stockmarket. The proportion of loans going into shares is hotly debated (see article). Executives at Chinese firms and the chastened survivors of other Asian stockmarket collapses worry that despite government restrictions lending trickles into the market indirectly. 更具争议性的是，目前有一个普遍的猜测，认为由政府发起的作为刺激计划的一部分的银行借贷潮已经涌入了股市。关于流入股市的信贷比例问题，目前正在激烈地争论着。中国公司的高管们和经历过亚洲其他股市崩溃磨练过的幸存者们担心，即便是有政府诸多限制，信贷还是会如涓涓细流般的间接流入股市。

Redirecting bank loans is typically a violation of credit agreements, but the main impact of such rules is likely to ensure any diversion is not reported. Recently rumours have circulated that the People’s Bank of China has initiated investigations to determine if these claims have merit—a move which, by itself, may have put a damper on the market. 重新调整银行信贷流向是典型的违反贷款协定的规定，然而这类规则主要的作用很可能是保证任何转向都不被报道。最近，市场传言中国中央银行已经展开调查，来确定这些主张是否有可取之处，央行自身的这一动向可能已经对市场产生了压制作用。

Equally jarring, after an extraordinary lending binge, the country’s leading banks are abruptly pulling back on credit expansion, a move that could affect the funds available for investment in the stockmarket, and indirectly undermine the market by reducing the near-term prospects for growth. Rumours are rife that banks’ capital requirements are being tightened, as are the conditions for various kinds of loan. A decline in new lending in the second half of the year had been expected; the rate of decline has, for many, been a shock. As share prices rose earlier in the year, numerous private companies and their bankers began the lengthy process of preparing for public offerings. In June debt was abundant and there was every reason to expect equity would soon be as well. Such confidence is now frayed. 同样不和谐的是，经过一场特别的放贷狂欢之后，中国的主要银行突然开始撤离信贷扩张的阵地。这一举动既可能影响可用于投资到股市的资金，也可能会通过降低短期增长前景而削弱市场根基。谣言盛行，作为各类贷款的条件，银行的资本金要求正在被收紧。下半年新增贷款出现下滑早已被预期到，但对很多人来说，下滑的速度让人震惊。随着今年年初股市上涨，许多私人公司和他们的投资方也开始了准备公开上市的漫长过程。六月份，市场上的债务充沛，有充分的理由相信不久后股票也会如此。这样的信心如今正在磨损。

 China’s mainland market has come a long way since its relaunch almost 20 years ago in an old hotel on the Bund in Shanghai. It is now the world’s second-largest on most measures, but a second speculative bubble in three years raises real questions about its credibility. The job of a stockmarket is to provide useful signals to help allocate capital. However thrilling, China’s market is a long way from doing that. 自从大约20年前在上海外滩一家老饭店里重新启动以来，中国大陆的股市已经走过了一段漫长的路程。如今，中国股市在大多数方面都已经是世界第二大，但也是第二个在三年内会使人们对其信誉度产生问题的投机泡沫。股市的职责是提供有用的信号，以帮助配置资本。无论多么让人激动，中国股市距离这一目标还有很长的路要走。