Green.view
绿色观察

Conflict conservation
矛盾的自然保护区

Biodiversity down the barrel of a gun
枪口下的生物多样性

Feb 8th 2010 | From The Economist online

THERE was a time when conservation meant keeping people away from nature. America’s system of national parks, a model for similar set-ups around the world, was based on the idea of limiting human presence to passing visits, rather than permanent habitation.

自然保护区曾经意味着将人类与自然界隔离开。美国的国家公园就是分布于世界各地类似的系统中的典范，其理念就是在保护区内人类只是游客，而不能成为永久居民。

In recent years this way of doing things has come under suspicion. To fence off large areas of parkland is often impractical and can also be immoral—in that it leads to local people being booted out. These days, the consensus among conservationists is to try to manage nature with humans in situ. But there are still “involuntary parks”, to borrow a phrase from the writer and futurist Bruce Sterling, that serve to illustrate just how spectacularly well nature can do when humans are removed from the equation.

然而近些年来，这种方式受到了怀疑。要将大片的公园区用栅栏隔开常常不切实际，而且也不道德——这将导致当地人被逐出家园。目前，生态环境保护者们一致的意见是应该在保护区内居民仍然留住原处的条件下设法进行生态环境的保护。“无意中形成的公园”是作家、未来派学者布鲁斯•斯特林发明的一个术语，现存的这样一类“公园”向我们展示，一旦完全没有了人类的打搅，大自然将绘出多么神奇的一幅画卷。

Some such “parks” are accidents of settlement, or its absence. Nature is preserved in those rare places that people just have not got round to overrunning—for example the Foja Mountains in western New Guinea, an area of rainforest that teems with an astonishingly rich variety of plants and animals. Others are accidents of conflict: places from which people have fled and where the fauna and flora have thrived as a result.

在这类“公园”中有些是由于偶尔在某些地区无人居住而形成。在一些罕见的地区，人类没有四处扩散他们的活动范围，自然状态因而得以保存。例如新几内亚岛西部的福贾山地区就是一处这样的“公园”，这里是一片雨林区，动植物种类之多令人吃惊。另外一些这类“公园”则是由于人类的冲突而巧合出现。在这些地区，人类逃走了，结果一个动植物的王国形成了。

The demilitarised zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea is a good example. Over the past six decades this narrow and dangerous strip of land running 248km (155 miles) across the Korean peninsula has become a de facto nature reserve. As agriculture and industrialisation have moved ahead elsewhere, the thousand-square-kilometre DMZ, uninhabited and heavily mined, has been a refuge for two endangered birds: the white-naped and the red-crowned crane. It also contains Asiatic black bears, egrets and, according to some, an extremely rare subspecies of the Siberian tiger. The biggest threat to all this biodiversity is probably peace. There are already calls for the DMZ to be turned into a park in the event of reunification.

在南、北朝鲜间的非军事区（DMZ）就是一个很好的例子。这条横跨朝鲜半岛，长达248公里（155英里）的狭窄而危险的地带在过去60年里实际上成了一个自然保护区。当其它地区都在大兴农业与推进工业化的时候，这块无人居住、满布地雷的数千平方公里的非军事区倒成了两种濒危鸟类的避难所。这两种鸟分别时是白枕鹤和丹顶鹤。在这片区域内还有亚洲黑熊、白鹭。据说这里还栖息着西伯利亚虎的某个极稀有亚种。对这里的各类生物而言最大的威胁可能就是和平了。已经有人在呼吁一旦南北朝鲜获得统一，应该将这片非军事区变成一处自然公园。

The Chagos Islands of the Indian Ocean are a military zone, too. The locals were forcibly removed by the British government, starting in the late 1960s, to make way for an American base on Diego Garcia, the archipelago’s main island. The Chagos Islands are thought to be home to some of the world’s healthiest coral reefs and the waters around them rank among the most pristine in the world. The Chagos Conservation Trust, a conservation group, would like to set up a reserve. The displaced islanders, however, plan to return one day, and if they do they will want to start fishing and building hotels and even an airport. Only military dominion keeps such activity at bay.

印度洋上的查戈斯群岛也是一个军事禁区，迪戈加西亚岛是这个群岛的主岛。上世纪60年代后期，英国政府强迫当地居民迁离这个群岛，为迪戈加西亚岛上建美军基地让道。查戈斯群岛拥有世界上发育最为良好的珊瑚礁，其周围的海水也位居地球上原生态保持最好的水域之一。查戈斯保护信托基金会是一个自然保护组织，计划把查戈斯群岛变成一个自然保护区。然而被迫迁离的岛民正谋划着某一天重返故土。如果他们的计划得以实现，他们将重新开始捕鱼作业，建筑旅馆，甚至还有可能建设一个机场。只有军事禁区内无法进行这些活动。

A little to the west of the Chagos, the Scotsman recently reported, the sea off Kenya’s northern coast currently has a profusion of fish because Somali pirates are keeping out all the big foreign fishing boats. Since the collapse of Somalia’s government in 1991, this part of the world has reportedly been plagued by illegal fishing. Now, goes the story, such boats are too afraid to enter the area because of the pirates.

《苏格兰人报》最近报道，查戈斯群岛以西一点的地方，肯尼亚北部海岸的外海现在鱼类充沛，其原因是索马里的海盗使所有外国的大型远洋捕鱼船都远离这里。1991年索马里政府倒台后，据报道这片海域非法捕鱼活动非常猖獗。而现在，同样是在这片海区，由于畏惧海盗这些船只完全不见了踪影。

The illegal dumping in the region of barrels of radioactive waste from European hospitals and factories, which has also been reported, has probably been similarly deterred, if it was taking place. This, though, is unlikely to bother the fish either way. Perhaps the most famous of the Earth’s involuntary parks is the evacuated area around Chernobyl, in Ukraine, where the burgeoning wildlife has been little affected by the risks of radiation.

过去曾有报道，一些船只在这片海域非法大量倾倒来自欧洲一些医院和工厂的放射性垃圾。而现在出于同样的原因，这些活动也都消失了。其时，倾倒这些放射物可能对鱼类的活动不会有任何影响。在地球上“无意中形成的公园”中最著名的可能要数位于乌克兰切尔诺贝利周围的撤离区，在这里迅速恢复的野生动物群落丝毫没有受到放射性的伤害。

Military conflict and the preparations that surround it are not, in themselves, good for the environment: far from it. Animals big enough to be eaten, or with body parts that can be sold for a profit, are well advised to stay out of war zones. It is depopulation that matters. Armed conflict and its knock-on effects simply happen to be one of the few forces on the planet that can cause quick and thorough depopulation. These areas struggle to survive when peace arrives. The nasty truth is that the likelihood of random and violent death is the cheapest form of conservation yet invented.

战争及战争准备活动本身不可能对环境产生什么益处，带来的只能是相反的结果。凡是大一点的可以作为人类食物的动物，或者是身体某一部分可以被出售卖钱的动物，建议你们最好还是远离战区。而战争引起了某个地区人口数量的锐减或消失才给当地环境带来了益处。事实已经告诉我们，战争及其影响是这个星球上少数几种能够造成局部地区人口迅速减少或灭绝的力量之一。一旦和平到来，这些地区的生态环境又将面临严峻考验。虽然令人不快，但事实上像战争这类带来随机和惨烈死亡的活动，却是制造自然保护区最廉价的方式。

译者：dqzxf
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Obituary
逝者

J.D. Salinger
J.D.塞林格

Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

Jerome David Salinger, writer, died on January 28th, aged 91

杰罗姆·大卫·塞林格，作家，于1月28日逝世，享年91岁

PEOPLE kept sneaking year after year to the place on the hill in Cornish, New Hampshire, but the Great American Writer was almost never seen. Ageing rebels, second-year master’s students with lacquered nails, broad-shouldered phonies in Norfolk jackets, snappers from Newsweek, all approached the cringing, little house where he had lived, or battened down, or holed up—you, general reader, can choose the word you please—ever since a great wave of fame had broken over him in 1953, two years after he happened to write a book called “The Catcher in the Rye”.

新罕布什尔州的科尼什的一座小山上的一处地方——一年又一年，不断会有人潜行至此，但是那位美国大作家却总是不得一见。这些人当中有上了年纪的愤青，有涂着指甲油的二年级研究生，有穿着诺福克上衣宽肩膀的装酷男，有《新闻周刊》的摄影记者；他们都接近了那个拒外的小房子，那是他居住的地方，或者说是他自我封闭的地方，或说是自我囚禁之所——读者你们可以选择自己喜欢的词来形容——自那股巨浪般的盛名突然向他砸来之后，他就住到了那里，那是1953年；在那两年之前，他恰巧写了一本书，书名叫作《麦田里的守望者》。

They caught a glimpse of him sometimes, with his haughty head, angular and bug-eyed, getting groceries in the village; but he gave them the slip almost always. The truth of it was that though his book might be on all the syllabuses, picked over by the academicians, hailed as the authentic voice of every teenager who had ever squeezed a pimple or tried, drawing himself up tall, to order a Scotch and soda, his life was nobody’s godammed business. If his dream was to live in the woods, with a fireplace and a typewriter and sheaves of notes hooked on the wall, almost like a deaf-mute in his dealings with the world, that was his affair.

他到村里买东西时，他们有时会捕捉到他的身影——头上昂，脸颊棱角分明，金鱼眼；但是他几乎总是摆脱得掉他们。他避人的真正缘由在于——尽管他的书可能在所有由教育专家精挑细选出的学校必读书单上（被誉为道出了所有少年的心声（只要这些十来岁的小孩曾经挤过青春痘，或是为了点一杯加苏打的威士忌而使劲拉长身子以显得更高））——他的生活和他妈的别人无关。他的生活是住在树林中，屋里有壁炉，桌上有打字机，墙上挂着成捆的笔记，几乎像聋哑人一样与世界打交道——如果这是他梦想的生活的话。

He was not just away in Cornish, he was also above. (The italics were his own.) From above, Holden Caulfield, the hero of “Catcher”, first entered his story to look down on the distant football game between Saxon Hall and Pencey Prep, all those little running figures of whom he was not one, because he was outside and expelled. The writer who truly lived for his art—who made it, as Mr Salinger did, his religion, along with Vedanta and Zen and the Tao—did not descend and did not integrate. He defended until death, or non-publication, the sanctity of his words. A writer asked to discuss his craft ought just to jump up and declaim, de haut en bas, the names of Flaubert, Tolstoy, Blake, Coleridge, Proust, James. And admit that after Melville there had been no really good American writer until—Salinger.

住在科尼什的他不只是在[尘世的]远处，而且是在高处。（斜体字引自他自己的话。）同样是在高处，《麦田》的主人公霍尔顿·考菲尔德首次登场，俯看远处的橄榄球比赛，对阵双方是萨克逊·霍尔中学和潘西中学，那些跑动的微小身影中没有他，他是局外者，他被开除了。真正为艺术而生的作家——这些人把艺术变成自己的宗教，就像塞林格所做的那样；除了艺术，塞林格的宗教还有吠檀多，还有禅，还有道——不会选择屈尊向下，不会选择妥协融合。塞林格至死都在捍卫自己作品的神圣纯粹，或者干脆不发表。作为一个作家，如果有人要你谈谈自己的行当，你只要应声而起，以藐视世人的态度大声喊出这些作家的名字：福楼拜，托尔斯泰，布莱克，柯勒律治，普鲁斯特，詹姆斯。并且要承认在梅尔维尔之后，美国还没有真正好的作家——直到塞林格的出现。

But that—wait—was not necessarily the name he answered to. In his short stories, a scant three dozen of them, rounding off the whole oeuvre, he gradually took the name and voice of Buddy Glass, a fortyish and paunchy short-story writer who had ended up in an English Department. And Glass in turn wrote obsessively, devotedly, as if of some plaster saint, about his elder brother Seymour, his Literary Ideal. Buddy was the working-writer Salinger, the man who had laboured in 1939-43 to get stuff into Esquire and the Saturday Evening Post, while all the time disdaining those slicks and lusting after the New Yorker—which, in 1948, took him into its embrace. But Seymour was “all real things to us: our blue-striped unicorn, our doublelensed burning glass, our consultant genius, our portable conscience…our one full poet.” He would open the door, blow “three or four or five unquestionably sweet and expert notes on a cornet”—and then disappear.

等一下，他并不一定只有“塞林格”这一个名字。在他的短篇小说里（一共写了为数不多的三十几篇，和其它作品一块儿组成了他的全部作品），他慢慢开始借用巴蒂·格拉斯的名字和声音来说自己的话，这是一个四十来岁、大腹便便的短篇小说作家，最后沦为一名大学英语系教师。而格拉斯则痴迷专注地在写一个人，一个好似圣人一样的人——他的哥哥西摩，他的文学典型。巴蒂是那个以写作为职业的塞林格，是那个在1939-1943年间笔耕不辍只为把自己写的东西弄到《君子》杂志和《周六晚邮报》上的那个人，但却始终厌恶那些纸质上等、内容空乏的报刊，而垂涎于《纽约客》杂志——在1948年，将其揽入怀抱。但是西摩“对于我们来说则是全部的真实：他是我们的蓝带独角兽，我们的复式凸透镜，我们的天才咨询师，我们的是非活手册……我们唯一的大诗人。” 他会推开门，“在短号上吹出三个、四个或者五个音符，悦耳且专业那是自不用说”——然后消失掉。

On the cliff-edge

在悬崖边

In time the Glass family thoroughly eclipsed the Salingers in the mind of the man in Cornish. But they were often the same. He too was “of part-Jewish, part-Irish, and conceivably part-Minotaur extraction”, brought up comfortably on the upper West Side with bellhops and cab-rides to Macy’s, and educated in schools like Pencey Prep. There, in Holden Caulfield mode, he failed to apply himself in almost everything except English composition; and so, although icily sardonic in conversation and convinced he would be a “superlative” writer, he never made the Ivy League. That hurt all his life.

最终，在这位科尼什居者的心中，格拉斯家族的光芒完全盖过了塞林格一家。但是两者之间时常有重合。塞林格同样是“一部分犹太血统，一部分爱尔兰血统，还看得出有部分弥诺陶洛斯血统”，他在曼哈顿上西城无忧无虑地长大，那里有到Macy’s百货商店的出租车，会有服务生帮着搬行李。他进了和潘西中学一样的学校。在那里，他和霍尔顿·考菲尔德无出二辙，除了英语作文之外几乎什么都不行；于是，尽管在与人交谈时会带有不友善的讽刺，尽管确信自己会成为一个“最棒的”作家，他最终却没有迈进常春藤盟校。他一辈子都对此耿耿于怀。

Salinger or Glass, he lived on his nerves. After his war service he could feel his mind teeter like insecure luggage and his fingers bump together, his f-a-c-u-l-t-i-e-s not intact. In the opinion of some lofty experts they never quite cohered again. Hence his hatred of photographs, blurbs, potted biographies and all else that might besmirch the plainness of a book-jacket—as well as the increasing weirdness of the work, thousands upon thousands of words about Seymour which both laboured to idolise and failed to describe, culminating in 1965 in “his” letter from summer camp, “Hapworth 16, 1924” in the ever- and over-indulgent New Yorker.

无论是作为塞林格，还是格拉斯，他的神经总是与紧张相伴。从战场归来后，他会感觉心总是晃晃悠悠的，就像[头顶行李架上]没有放稳的行李，他的手指会相互碰撞打架，他的湿—嗯——西—阴受损了。在某些玄虚的专家看来，他们没有再完全融洽统一过。于是就有了他对于书皮上的照片、宣传推荐语、简短肤浅的作者介绍以及其它可能会玷污其朴实品性内容的憎恶——其作品的愈加怪异就更不用说了：动用千言万语描写西摩只为表达无限崇拜之情，却未能给出一个清晰的人物轮廓。这种絮语式作品的顶峰是1965年“他”从夏令营寄来的信——《哈普沃思16，1924》，发表在对其一贯纵容且过分纵容的《纽约客》杂志上。

Perhaps, said the hacks to the paparazzi as they climbed the hill again, it had all been hype; apart from a hawk-sharp ear for dialogue, and a keen, tender eye for the tricksiness of children, he had never shown half as much literary talent as talent for publicity-by-intrigue. There were said to be unpublished manuscripts in his safe; most pundits were happy to wait.

也许都是宣传的噱头（小报作者这么告诉帕帕垃圾，于是帕帕垃圾带着新目的再次上山）；除了一对能从对话当中捕捉到精彩的灵敏耳朵，除了两行投向淘气顽童敏锐且温暖的目光，他显示出的文学才华还不及自我宣传才能的一半。据说，在他的保险箱中存有尚未发行的手稿；塞林格迷们大都在乐观等待，认为手稿总有现天日的那天。

What they did not always realise, as their cars left tyre-ruts on his property, was exactly what Mr Salinger had been doing there. He said he wrote just for himself; but he was also “the most terrific liar”. As Holden Caulfield, he had famously seen himself on the edge of “some crazy cliff”, watching thousands of children at play in a big field of rye, and “What I have to do, I have to catch everybody if they start to go over the cliff.” Eight years later the idea recurred as he wrote “Seymour: An Introduction”. He felt he was “removing, at least for a minute or two, all the detonators from all the bombs in this bloody world.”

但是，当他们把轮胎印留在他的“领地”上的同时，他们并不总是搞得懂塞林格到底在那儿做着什么。他说他只为自己写作；但是他同时也是“最会撒谎的人”。作为霍尔顿·考菲尔德，他看见了自己的理想状态：站在“那混账的悬崖边”，看着在一大片麦田里玩耍的上千个孩子，“我要做的就是守望，如果有哪个孩子朝悬崖处来，我就要把它捉住。” 八年后，在他写作《西摩：小传》时，这种想法再次浮现。他觉得他正在“拆除这个混账世界里所有炸弹上的所有雷管，至少也会拆个一两分钟。”

Not ignoring it, then; not hiding from it; frankly, if you believed him, saving it.

这么看来，他既不是对这个世界置之不理，也不是对其避之恐不及；而是——如果你信他的——拯救其于水火。
译者：eastx
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The defence budget
国防预算

The Pentagon dodges the bullet
五角大楼躲过了旋风

Barack Obama is spending more on defence than his predecessors
奥巴马政府的国防支出超过前任

Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

EVEN Robert Gates, the American defence secretary, admits that the $708 billion requested by Barack Obama for defence spending next year is “a massive number”. The Pentagon was exempted from the administration’s spending freeze; the surge in Afghanistan consumes all the savings from the drawdown from Iraq. So America will spend more money on defence than it did during the Korean or Vietnam wars, though as a share of national wealth defence spending is still relatively low in historical terms (see chart).

美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨也承认,奥巴马政府提出的7080亿美元的下一年度国防预算是一个“天文数字”。五角大楼成功地躲过了这场政府刮起的冻结支出的旋风。从伊拉克撤出部队省下的钱全都被增兵阿富汗的行动花光了。因此，美国的国防预算将要超过朝鲜战争和越南战争期间的支出。但以占国民经济总收入的百分比计算，这一预算还是各历史时期中相对较低的。（见图表）

For Mr Gates the 2011 budget request, and the new quadrennial defence review (QDR) issued on the same day, are meant to consolidate the changes he has been promoting: giving priority to fighting today’s wars over buying equipment for tomorrow’s possible conflicts. The Obama administration’s first QDR is more evolution than revolution. That was to be expected, given that Mr Gates was kept on from the administration of George Bush.

对盖茨先生来说，2011年的国防预算草案以及同日发布的新一期《四年防务评估报告》（QDR）都意味着进一步巩固了他一直在推动的预算改革：防务支出要优先用于目前正在进行的战争行动，为今后可能的冲突购买装备的支出要排在第二位。奥玛巴当局的第一期QDR并未彻底推翻前一期的《四年防务评估报告》，而是在它的基础上进行了一些修正。考虑到盖茨先生是乔治•布什政府留任的国防部长，这样的政策是可以预料到的。

Mr Gates’s tenure at the Pentagon is notable for two features: his willingness to kill off expensive projects, and his ruthlessness in punishing failure. Last year Mr Gates halted projects such as the new presidential helicopter and capped production of the air force’s top-of-the-line F-22 fighter—saving, he says, $330 billion. He has also fired, among others, the secretaries of the army and of the air force.

这位五角大楼的大老板以下列两个特点而闻名：他毫不犹豫地取缔耗资过大的项目；毫不手软地惩处犯有过失者。去年，他就下令终止了制造新的总统专用直升机，削减了空军最尖端的F-22战斗机的产量，据他说，此举能节省3300亿美元。他还解除了包括陆军参谋长和空军参谋长在内的一批高级将领的职务。

His latest cull is less dramatic. He wants to cancel the navy’s new cruiser and halt plans to replace its EP-3 intelligence aircraft. He seeks to cap production of the C-17 aircraft and kill off plans for an alternate engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—and if Congress attempts to preserve these two projects, Mr Gates said, he will ask Mr Obama to veto the budget.

相比之下，他最近的消减项目行动就不那么引人注目了。他下令取消美国海军新型巡洋舰的研制，终止EP-3电子侦察机的更新换代计划。他目前正积极推动减少C-17运输机的生产数量，取消为F-35联合攻击战斗机更换发动机的计划。盖茨威胁说，如果国会试图保留这两个项目，他就会要求奥巴马总统否决预算。

But is the defence budget on target?
国防预算也会成为攻击的目标吗？

The idea is to free up money for, among other things, more drones (see picture) and helicopters. Electronic warfare and cybersecurity would also be beefed up. With other countries, notably China, finding new ways to sink ships and shoot down planes and satellites, the QDR considers a new generation of long-range weapons such as unmanned bombers launched from aircraft carriers and long-range cruise missiles fired from submarines.

这样做的目的是要挤出钱来用于采购更多的无人机（见图）和直升机以及其它用途。电子战和网络安全也需要更多的资金投入。由于其它国家（显然是指中国）正在研制新型防空、反舰、反卫星武器，这份《四年防务评估报告》要求研制新一代远程武器系统，如从航空母舰上起飞的无人驾驶轰炸机、潜艇上发射的远程巡航导弹等。

The F-35 is supposed to become the backbone of American air power, but its costs have been rising. So Mr Gates announced he would replace the Pentagon’s manager in charge of the programme, Major-General David Heinz, a two-star general, with a three-star officer. He said he would also dock $614m in performance fees for the contractor, Lockheed Martin.

F-35战机将成为美国空军的主要机种，但其所需费用在不断增加。因此盖茨宣布他将用一名三星中将取代现在的二星少将大卫•希内茨成为五角大楼负责该项目的主任。盖茨说，还将削减该项目承包商的奖金。这个项目的承包商是洛克希德•马丁公司。

The review seeks to break with the old requirement that America should be able to fight two major wars at the same time. Mr Gates said America has already been fighting big conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, but had to “prepare for a much broader range of security challenges on the horizon”. What practical changes this entails is not yet clear. The 2006 QDR already foresaw that America had to deal with a range of crises, and Mr Gates’s review only tinkers with America’s military structure.

以往要求美国具有同时进行两场大规模战争的能力，而这份《四年防务评估报告》要打破这一战略。盖茨指出，美国已经是在伊拉克与阿富汗进行着两场大规模战争，而且必须“在更加宽广的战线上迎接即将出现的（对美国）安全的挑战”。这将导致什么样的具体变化尚不明了。2006年版的QDR已经预见到美国必须应付一系列的危机，而盖茨先生的此份报告不过是对美国的军事结构进行了一些拙劣的修补。

The QDR foresees a world in which political, economic and military power is “more diffuse”. With the rise of China and India, America “will remain the most powerful actor but must increasingly work with key allies and partners”. Yet for now, Mr Gates reckons the most immediate factor affecting America’s future security is whether it wins or loses today’s wars.

这份QDR预见，今后的世界里政治、经济与军事实力将更加分散。伴随着中国与印度的崛起，美国“依然能够是世界上最强大的国家，在世界事务中发挥最主要的作用，但必须不断增加重要盟国与合作伙伴的协同”。然而眼下，盖茨认为影响美国今后安全最紧迫的是能否打赢目前正在进行的战争。

附注：dodge the bullet
If someone has dodged a bullet, they have successfully avoided a very serious problem.

译者：dqzxf
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30792

America’s economy

美国经济

Ticking up

经济复苏

Jan 29th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist online

America’s economy grew by 5.7% at the end of 2009. Yet it remains vulnerable
美国经济在2009年年末增长了5.7%。但是她仍需要悉心呵护。

AFTER a tough start to 2010, Barack Obama could not have asked for better news on the economy to distract attention from his political difficulties. In the fourth quarter of last year American GDP grew by an impressive 5.7%, at an annual rate, the best quarterly performance since 2003. Expansion was driven by growth in private inventories and an increase in exports. For all of 2009 output declined by 2.4%, but for Americans weary from two years of declining employment, the fourth-quarter figure offers a clear signal that the worst is over.
新年伊始就遭遇不顺，（美国总统）巴拉克•奥巴马可能不会指望更好的经济表现来分散旁人对他政治困境的关注。按年率计算，去年第四季度，美国国内生产总值增长5.7%，这令人印象深刻，是自2003年以来最优异的季度表现。经济复苏是受私人投资和出口的双升所拉动。在整个2009年，经济产出下降了2.9%，但是，对于经历了两年来就业量下滑的美国人来说，第四季度的数据清晰得表明：经济已经触底回升。

Yet only cautious celebration is in order. There are reasons to doubt that the impressive performance in a single quarter will be repeated in the coming months. Weak fundamentals will prevent the American economy from sustaining that fast pace of growth. Of the 5.7% increase in real output, 3.4 percentage points came from inventory changes, as firms which had operated on a shoestring in the recession built inventories back to normal levels. That brief buying spree brought some workers back to assembly lines, but unless a new source of demand arises the boost from restocking will fade and growth will slow.
然而，仅是小心的庆祝还算合适。（我们）有理由持有这样的疑虑：单季度如此骄人的经济表现是否还会在未来不断出现。脆弱的经济基本面不会使美国经济保持快速增长。经济按实际值计算增长5点7个百分点（减去通货膨胀率——即09年商品和劳务价格变化程度），其中有3点4个百分点来自于私人投资的增加，因为在萧条中，勒紧裤带（裁汰员工，削减支出，降低规模）度日的公司已将生产（产品）拉回正常水平。短暂的抢购风（原译为：需求升温）使部分工人重新站在流水作业线旁边，但是如果新的需求源不能异军突起，那么产品数量的增加之势将一去（暂）不复返而且经济增长会放缓。

There are already signs of a loss of momentum. According to Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, most of the inventory boost came in October, when growth roared ahead at a 16.4% annual rate. By November, growth had already quietened substantially. And throughout the fourth quarter the economy has continued to shed jobs. It is difficult to sustain growth when employment is not rising.
已有迹象表明：经济上行的势头正在消退。根据宏观经济咨询公司（一家咨询公司）的有关数据，绝大多数产品存货的增加始于去年10月份，那时经济以16.4%的年率大踏步回升。截止11月，经济增长已大体消弭。接着（去年）整个第四季度经济未能力挽失业率攀升的狂澜。在就业率下降之时去维持经济的增长，此难于登天矣。

Nor is it clear where new demand might arise. As the GDP report makes plain, personal consumption remains extremely weak; consumption rose by just 2.0% for the quarter, below the 2.8% increase of the previous three months. Spending will probably remain subdued throughout 2010. According to a recent IMF research note, the crisis and recession significantly damaged household wealth, suggesting that savings rates will rise in a recovery. The effect on consumption may be to trim 3% off GDP relative to pre-crisis levels. Indeed, the fourth-quarter savings rate ticked up to 4.6%, from 4.5% during the previous period. New demand growth will have to come elsewhere.
新需求出自哪里，尚不明了。正如GDP报告上写得清清楚楚一般，个人消费仍然相当疲软；第4季度消费仅仅上升了2.0%，低于过去3个月2.8%的上升水平。（家庭）投入在今年很有可能位于低水平。IMF最近的研究报告显示，经济危机和萧条严重缩水了家庭资产，这表明储蓄率会在经济复苏中上升。与危机前的水平相比，消费对GDP的贡献可能减少3个百分点，事实上，第四季度储蓄率从前期的4.5%上升到4.6%。新需求将不得不问路它方。

Investment may also disappoint in 2010, because of overcapacity. Oversupply in both residential and commercial property has discouraged investment in the sectors and meant that construction employment is not rising. Housing starts continue to languish at around a third of normal levels. Industrial-capacity use is similarly well below pre-recession levels. Until most existing capacity is put to productive use, there is little reason for businesses to make new investments.
因为会出现产能过剩，这一年（2010年）的投资可能也会受挫。住宅房和商业房的过度供给（或“过度膨胀”）将会给许多部门的投资泼冷水并且房市的泡沫意味着建筑业行中的就业率难有起色。房市经济开始冷却，大约是正常水平的1/3。产能的使用（或者投入）同样远远低于危机前的水平。除非绝大多数产能投入生产使用，否则经济发展中出现新一轮投资之谈无异于痴人说梦（或者“根本站不住脚”）。

Nor does it help that government economic support will fade during 2010. Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com, estimates that the federal stimulus contributed about two percentage points of growth in the fourth quarter. That will drop below one percentage point by mid-year and fall to nothing thereafter. State budget cuts will also be a drain on output, as they have been for most of the recession. Drops in state-government spending subtracted 0.1% from output for all of 2009.
2010年政府救市方案的退出后，经济将难有改观。Mark Zandi（一位来自Moody’s Economy.com 的经济学家）估计，联邦政府的刺激政策对第四季度的经济增长贡献了两个百分点。这一贡献率在年中到来之前将降至1个百分点之下并最后彻底消失。{州政府预算的缩减也将拖累经济的发展，正像以前绝大多数经济衰退中所发生的一样。（此处感谢join_soon）}2009年全年，州政府开支的削减使产出降低了0.1%。

And even the fourth quarter’s spirited performance may be overstated. Third-quarter growth was originally reported at 3.5%, only to be revised down later to 2.2%.
接着，甚至是（去年）第四季度振奋人心的经济表现或许也被人为夸大。去年第三季度经济增长在报告中起初是3.5%，结果后来竟然修订为2.2%。

Nonetheless, the performance of the American economy in the fourth quarter is encouraging, suggesting firmly that America has pulled free of recession. Yet caution is in order. If the response is to cut back quickly on fiscal and monetary support for the economy, this flash of growth could disappear as quickly as it emerged.
但是，美国经济第4季度的表现还是鼓舞人心的，这清楚地说明美国已经走出经济衰退的泥潭。然而保持谨慎的态度是合宜的。如果马上撤出支撑经济的财政和货币（的扩张性）政策，那么经济增长的闪光可能会来也匆匆，去也匆匆。

译者：intel英杰
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Politics this week
一周政治速览

Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

China reacted angrily to America’s plan to sell $6 billion-worth of weapons to Taiwan. It suspended military contacts, threatened sanctions against American companies involved in the arms sales and said it would review co-operation on international issues.

中国对美国60亿美元的售台武器计划作出激烈反应。中国已切断中美军事联系，威胁将对参与售台武器的美国企业进行制裁，并表示将重新考虑在国际事务上的合作事宜。

As talks in Beijing between China and representatives of the Dalai Lama ended with little sign of progress, Chinese officials warned Barack Obama against proceeding with a planned meeting with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader. Mr Obama insisted that it would go ahead, probably later this month.

中国与达赖喇嘛私人代表的会谈结束，成果甚少。中国官方警告奥巴马，不要和这位流亡的西藏精神领袖进行既定的会面。奥巴马表示会谈不会取消，并很可能会在本月末举行。

Anwar Ibrahim, leader of Malaysia’s opposition, went on trial charged with sodomy. Mr Anwar has denied the allegations and accused the prime minister, Najib Razak, of a conspiracy against him. Previously convicted and jailed on a similar charge, Mr Anwar was later exonerated.

马拉西亚反对党领袖华安因受鸡奸罪的指控出庭受审。华安否认了这一指控，并控诉这是总理纳吉布的阴谋。华安曾因类似指控而被判刑，但后来被无罪释放。

In Sri Lanka several dozen supporters of Sarath Fonseka, the defeated candidate in last month’s election, were detained, accused of involvement in a plot to ssassinate Mahinda Rajapaksa, the victorious president. Journalists’ unions and foreign human-rights groups condemned a deterioration in press freedom.

在斯里兰卡，上月竞选中失利的Sarath Fonseka的数十名支持者被拘捕，他们被指控参与了现任总统的刺杀计划。记者工会和海外人权组织对新闻自由状况的恶化表示谴责。

Three American soldiers were killed, along with three children and a Pakistani soldier, in a bomb attack outside a girls’ school in the north-west of Pakistan. The Americans were said to be counter-insurgency trainers working with Pakistan’s Frontier Corps.

在一所女校附近的炸弹袭击中，三名美国士兵，连同三名儿童和一名巴基斯坦士兵丧生。这几名美国人据传是工作于边境兵团（Frontier Corps）的反暴动训练员。

On a mission
行动中

As the relief effort following Haiti’s huge earthquake continued, members of a Baptist group from Idaho were arrested and accused of trying to smuggle 33 Haitian children out of the country. Haiti said the death toll now exceeded 200,000, the first estimate.

随着海地大地震的救援工作继续进行，几名来自爱达华州的浸信会教徒被拘捕，并受到企图将33名海地儿童拐卖出该国的指控。海地的初次死亡统计预计遇难者人数超过20万。

Argentina’s president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, won her battle to remove Martín Redrado as head of the Central Bank for opposing her plan to use some of the country’s dollar reserves to repay debt. His replacement is an economist said to be closer to the president.

阿根廷总统Cristina Fernández de Kirchner如愿将央行行长Martín Redrado革职。Martín Redrado反对她用美元储备支付债务的主张。替任该职位的经济学家据传和总统交往更深。

President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia became the first foreign leader to visit Honduras’s new president, Porfirio Lobo. Meanwhile, the United States restored aid that had been cut off to Honduras after a coup that removed Manuel Zelaya from the presidency in June.

哥伦比亚总统Álvaro Uribe成为首位访问洪都拉斯新总统Porfirio Lobo的外国领导。与此同时，联合国恢复了政变后中断的对该国的援助。该政变在6月将Manuel Zelaya从总统之位上赶了下来。

Gunmen slaughtered a dozen teenagers and two adults at a birthday party in Ciudad Juárez, a Mexican city in the grip of drug-related murders.

持枪者在墨西哥城市Juárez的一个生日派对上屠杀了12名少年和2名成人。在Juárez，有毒品有关的谋杀时有发生，该城市深受其害。

Debt watch
偿债

The European Commission accepted Greece’s latest deficit-reduction plan, but vowed to monitor progress closely. In a broadcast to the country the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, made a plea for national unity, but public-sector workers continued with plans to strike.

欧盟委员会接受了希腊最新的赤字削减计划，并表示将密切监督其进展情况。在一次全国的广播讲话中，希腊总理George Papandreou呼吁国民团结一致，但是公务员的罢工计划照常进行。

The two candidates in Ukraine’s presidential election run-off, Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich, traded insults as the country prepared to vote. Tension rose when the Ukrainian secret service announced that it had detained five Russians last month for spying.

乌克兰复选的两名总统候选人季莫申科（Yulia Tymoshenko）和亚努科维奇（Viktor Yanukovich）在国民准备投票之际，相互诋毁攻击。乌克兰情报部门披露，上月5名俄罗斯人因从事间谍活动被捕，局势因此更加紧张。

Barack Obama announced that he would not attend a summit with the European Union planned for May. Some thought the move signalled the changing foreign-policy priorities of the Obama administration; others suggested the Americans were simply tired of pointless meetings with a proliferation of European leaders.

奥巴马宣布不会参加和欧盟定于5月举行的峰会。部分人认为这意味着奥巴马政府外交中心的转变，另一些人认为这只仅仅是因为美国厌倦了和一波又一波的欧洲领导人进行不着边际的会谈。

Tony Blair testified at the Iraq war inquiry in Britain. The former prime minister gave a stout defence of his decision to send British troops into Iraq, said he would do it again, and asked what the situation would be like now if Saddam Hussein had been left in power to develop WMD. One of his former ministers said Mr Blair was being “ludicrous”.

Moon shot
月球被毙

The White House unveiled a $3.8 trillion budget for the next fiscal year, starting in October. Many of its highlights, such as a new tax on banks, had been previously trailed, but the document also outlined spending on jobs. NASA’s $100 billion plan to return men to the moon was scrapped.

白宫公布了下一财年（10月开始）3.8亿万美元的预算案。其中的重头项目（比如新开的银行税）很多都不见踪影，但是该预算草案还列出了就业的相关支出。美国航空局1000亿美元的载人探月计划被枪毙。

Barack Obama gave a speech to congressional Republicans in which he called for bipartisanship in Washington and took questions from his opponents on health care, the deficit and other matters. The rare event was televised, and was an instant hit on YouTube.

奥巴马向共和党议员发表演讲，他呼吁两党合作，并回答了反对党有关医改、赤字等问题上的提问。电视台直播了这一罕见的场合，并立即成为youtube的热门视频。

America’s defence secretary announced a review of the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy which bars openly gay soldiers from serving in the armed forces. Admiral Mike Mullen heartily supported the review, the first time a chairman of the joint chiefs of staff has backed the idea of allowing gay troops to serve. Congress will have the ultimate say, but not any time soon. See article

美国国防部长对“不问不说”政策做了总结称述。该政策禁止公开同性恋军人在部队服役。海军上将Mike Mullen又重支持这一总结称述，这是第一次“参谋首长联席会议”的主席支持允许同性恋部队服役的做法。国会将最终说了算，但是近期不会有结果。

Tony Blair testified at the Iraq war inquiry in Britain. The former prime minister gave a stout defence of his decision to send British troops into Iraq, said he would do it again, and asked what the situation would be like now if Saddam Hussein had been left in power to develop WMD. One of his former ministers said Mr Blair was being “ludicrous”.

英国，布莱尔在伊拉克战争调查会上发表了证词。在向伊拉克出兵问题上，这位前总理为自己做了坚决的辩护。他表示即使再做决定，也不会改变立场，并反问倘若萨达姆当政继并续研制大规模杀伤性武器的话，现在将是何等局面。他的一位前任部长称，布莱尔简直就是“可笑”。

Ballots and bombs
投票与投弹

Iraq’s electoral commission reversed a ban on more than 500 candidates who had been told they could not run in next month’s election because of past ties to Saddam Hussein’s Baath party. Prominent Sunni politicians, who had threatened to boycott the poll because they said the original decision discriminated against them, welcomed the move. Meanwhile, suicide-bombs in Baghdad and Karbala, one of Shia Islam’s holiest Iraqi towns, killed more than 60 Shia pilgrims.

伊拉克选举委员撤销了对500名候选人参选的禁令。他们之前因为与萨达姆的复兴党有旧交，而被告之不能参加下月的竞选。逊尼派的重要领导人对这一举动表示欢迎。他们之前称，原来举行的选举对他们不公，并因此威胁要抵制这次投票。同时，巴格达和卡尔拉巴（什叶派最圣神的城镇之一）的自杀性炸弹袭击中，60多名什叶派朝圣者丧生。

An agreement on a truce between Yemen’s government and Shia rebels of the Houthi clan broke down over an extra condition that the Houthis stop attacking Saudi forces across Yemen’s border. Yemeni government forces later said they had killed 16 Houthi rebels, including several leaders, in their stronghold, Saada. See article

也门政府和Houthi部落什叶派反叛者之间的停战协议因Houthi份子停止在也门边界进攻沙特军队的特殊状况而被撕毁。也门政府部队后来表示他们已经杀死16名Touthi叛乱分子，其中包括Saada要塞的几名领导人。

Israel’s secret service, Mossad, was widely suspected of the recent assassination in Dubai of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a military commander of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist move. Mr Mabhouh was said to have been close to Hamas’s political leader, Khaled Meshaal.

伊斯兰特工Mossad被多方怀疑是最近在迪拜暗杀哈马斯组织（巴勒斯坦伊斯兰运动团体）军官Mahmoud al-Mabhouh的嫌疑犯。据说，Mahmoud al-Mabhouh与哈马斯政界领导人Khaled Meshaal交往甚密。

The chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court in The Hague won his appeal against a ruling that he could not charge Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir, with genocide in Darfur. Mr Bashir was indicted in March 2009. A warrant for his arrest will now be reconsidered. Mr Bashir, with the backing of some African governments but not others, still insists he will not appear before the court.

海牙国际刑事法庭上，高级检举人成功推翻了之前禁止他以达尔富尔种族屠杀事件起诉苏丹总统 Omar al-Bashir的判决。 Omar al-Bashir于2009年3月遭到起诉。现在，他可能遭到逮捕。Bashir在一部分非洲国家的支持下，仍旧表示决不会出庭。

译者：fhf208188
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30788&highlight=

Chemical pollution and fertility
化学污染与生殖能力

Flame wars
火焰战争

Fire retardants may affect female reproduction
阻燃剂可能会影响女性生育

Jan 28th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

With free birth control? 免费避孕？

IN MANY ways DDT was a miracle chemical when its efficacy against biting insects was discovered at the start of the second world war. Its widespread use against malarial mosquitoes saved countless lives. What was not known at the time, however, was DDT’s propensity to accumulate, persist and damage the environment.

当第二次世界大战伊始发现它抗蚊虫叮咬的功效之后，滴滴涕在许多方面都成为一种特效化学药剂。它广泛用于抵抗传染疟疾的蚊虫，拯救了无数生命。然而在那时没有人知道，滴滴涕有富集性，稳定性并且破坏环境。
继续阅读“Flame wars 火焰战争”

Tablet computing

平板电脑

The book of Jobs

乔布斯书

It has revolutionised one industry after another. Now Apple hopes to transform three at once

苹果已先后发起一项又一项产业革命，现在则希望同时进行三项变革。

Jan 28th 2010
From The Economist print edition

APPLE is regularly voted the most innovative company in the world, but its inventiveness takes a particular form. Rather than developing entirely new product categories, it excels at taking existing, half-baked ideas and showing the rest of the world how to do them properly. Under its mercurial and visionary boss, Steve Jobs, it has already done this three times. In 1984 Apple launched the Macintosh. It was not the first graphical, mouse-driven computer, but it employed these concepts in a useful product. Then, in 2001, came the iPod. It was not the first digital-music player, but it was simple and elegant, and carried digital music into the mainstream. In 2007 Apple went on to launch the iPhone. It was not the first smart-phone, but Apple succeeded where other handset-makers had failed, making mobile internet access and software downloads a mass-market phenomenon.

苹果公司经常被评为全球创新性最强的公司，不过，其创新别具一格。它并不开发全新的产品系列，而是擅长从既有的半成熟想法入手，向全世界展示如何做才恰如其分。该公司总裁史蒂夫·乔布斯头脑灵活，思路开阔，在他主导下，公司已经有三次这么做了。1984年，苹果公司推出麦金塔电脑。这并非首个以鼠标操作并应用图标（注1）的电脑，但却将这些理念应用为有用的产品。然后是2001年，iPod面世。这不是首个数字音乐播放器，但其简洁精巧，将数字音乐引入主流。2007年，苹果再接再厉，推出了iPhone。这不是首款智能手机，但苹果在其他手机生产商失败之处崛起，将移动网络及软件下载培育成大市场。

As rivals rushed to copy Apple’s approach, the computer, music and telecoms industries were transformed. Now Mr Jobs hopes to pull off the same trick for a fourth time. On January 27th he unveiled his company’s latest product, the iPad—a thin, tablet-shaped device with a ten-inch touch-screen which will go on sale in late March for $499-829 (see article). Years in the making, it has been the subject of hysterical online speculation in recent months, verging at times on religious hysteria: sceptics in the blogosphere jokingly call it the Jesus Tablet.

其竞争对手群起仿效苹果成功之路，遂使电脑、音乐与电信产业获得变革。现在，乔布斯冀望第四次再施其妙招，再获成功。1月27日，他展示了公司最新产品iPad－－10英寸触摸屏的薄薄平面产品。该产品将于3月末上市，售价499至829美元（见有关文章）。这款东西研发多年，近几个月来，网上掀起对其猜测的风潮，其热度有时接近对宗教之狂热：博客圈中的无神论者戏谑地称之为平板耶酥。

The enthusiasm of the Apple faithful may be overdone, but Mr Jobs’s record suggests that when he blesses a market, it takes off. And tablet computing promises to transform not just one industry, but three—computing, telecoms and media.

苹果公司追捧者的热情可能有些过火，但乔布斯以往成功表明，他青睐于哪个领域，哪个市场就会火起来。平板电脑笃定将转变不只一个、而是三个行业－－电脑、电信与媒体。

Companies in the first two businesses view the iPad’s arrival with trepidation, for Apple’s history makes it a fearsome competitor. The media industry, by contrast, welcomes it wholeheartedly. Piracy, free content and the dispersal of advertising around the web have made the internet a difficult environment for media companies. They are not much keener on the Kindle, an e-reader made by Amazon, which has driven down book prices and cannot carry advertising. They hope this new device will give them a new lease of life, by encouraging people to read digital versions of books, newspapers and magazines while on the move. True, there are worries that Apple could end up wielding a lot of power in these new markets, as it already does in digital music. But a new market opened up and dominated by Apple is better than a shrinking market, or no market at all.

前两个行业的企业对iPad问世感到恐惶，因为苹果公司的历史证明其是令人生畏的竞争者。与此形成对照的是，媒体业真心实意地对此表示欢迎。盗版猖獗，信息免费和广告网上传播，这使媒体公司在网上发展艰难。亚马逊公司的电子阅读器Kindle拉低了图书价格，又不能投放广告，故媒体公司对此热衷程度有限。它们希望这款新产品可推动人们在移动中阅读数字图书、报纸与杂志，带给他们新生。诚然，有些人担心，这些新市场的主宰权有可能最后被苹果攫取，数字音乐就是现成的例子。但是，苹果开启并主导一个新市场要好过市场萎缩，或根本无市场可言。

Keep taking the tablets

继续瞄准平板电脑

Tablet computers aimed at business people have not worked. Microsoft has been pushing them for years, with little success. Apple itself launched a pen-based tablet computer, the Newton, in 1993, but it was a flop. The Kindle has done reasonably well, and has spawned a host of similar devices with equally silly names, including the Nook, the Skiff and the Que. Meanwhile, Apple’s pocket-sized touch-screen devices, the iPhone and iPod Touch, have taken off as music and video players and hand-held games consoles.

以企业界人士为目标客户的平板电脑行不通。微软多年来致力于此，但鲜获成功。苹果公司也于1993年推出了Newton掌上手写电脑，但惨遭失败。Kindle做得相当好，而且引起一系列类似产品竞相效仿，名字也同样怪，如Nook、Skiff和Que。与此同时，苹果开发了袋装的触摸屏产品iPhone和iPod Touch，它们作为音乐与视频播放器及掌上游戏机大为成功。

The iPad is, in essence, a giant iPhone on steroids. Its large screen will make it an attractive e-reader and video player, but it will also inherit a vast array of games and other software from the iPhone. Apple hopes that many people will also use it instead of a laptop. If the company is right, it could open up a new market for devices that are larger than phones, smaller than laptops, and also double as e-readers, music and video players and games consoles. Different industries are already converging on this market: mobile-phone makers are launching small laptops, known as netbooks, and computer-makers are moving into smart-phones. Newcomers such as Google, which is moving into mobile phones and laptops, and Amazon, with the Kindle, are also entering the fray: Amazon has just announced plans for an iPhone-style “app store” for the Kindle, which will enable it to be more than just an e-reader.

IPad本质上就是膨胀了的大型iPhone。作为电子阅读器与视频播放器而言，其大屏幕更为诱人，而且还带着iPhone的一大堆游戏与其它软件。苹果公司希望许多人能弃笔记本而转用iPad。若果如此，它将开辟一个新产品市场：从体积上看比手机大又比笔记本小，从功能上看能充作电子阅读器、音乐与视频播放器和游戏机。各行业已齐集于这一市场：手机生产商正推出上网本等小型笔记本电脑，电脑生产商进军智能手机领域。还有谷歌与亚马逊等新进者也加入这场混战，如谷歌进入手机与笔记本领域，亚马逊携Kindle而来：刚刚宣布了Kindle关于iPhone式“应用程序商店”的新计划，这将使之功能超出电子阅读器范畴。

If the past is any guide, Apple’s entry into the field will not just unleash fierce competition among device-makers, but also prompt consumers and publishers who had previously been wary of e-books to take the plunge, accelerating the adoption of this nascent technology. Sales of e-readers are expected to reach 12m this year, up from 5m in 2009 and 1m in 2008, according to iSuppli, a market-research firm.

根据以往经验，苹果公司进军该领域不仅仅会引发生产商之间的激烈竞争；消费者与出版商以前对电子阅读器持谨慎态度，不愿进行尝试，苹果的新产品还会加速促使他们接受这一新技术。市场调研公司iSuppli的调查结果显示，电子阅读器的销量在2008年是100万，2009年达到500万，今年将增至1200万。

Hold the front pixels

占据技术领先地位（注2）

Will the spread of tablets save struggling media companies? Sadly not. Some outfits—metropolitan newspapers, for instance—are probably doomed by their reliance on classified advertising, which is migrating to dedicated websites. Others are too far gone already. Tablets are expensive, and it will be some years before they are widespread enough to fulfil their promise. In theory a newspaper could ask its readers to sign up for a two-year electronic subscription, say, and subsidise the cost of a tablet. But such a subsidy would be hugely pricey, and expensive printing presses will have to be kept running for readers who want to stick with paper.

平板电脑的广泛应用会拯救挣扎中的媒体业么？很不幸，不会。有些依赖分类广告的媒体－－如都市类报纸－－可能注定消亡，因为分类广告正转向分门别类的网站。其它一些媒体则早已没落。平板电脑价格昂贵，要扩张到一定规模才能实现其做出的承诺，这尚需时日。从理论上讲，报纸可要求其读者注册，如订阅两年电子刊物，并补贴平板电脑费用。但这样的补贴额将极不菲，而且，平面媒体还不得不继续维持成本高昂的印制发行，以满足那些固守纸质阅读的读者。

Still, even though tablets will not save weak media companies, they are likely to give strong ones a boost. Charging for content, which has proved difficult on the web, may get easier. Already, people are prepared to pay to receive newspapers and magazines (including The Economist) on the Kindle. The iPad, with its colour screen and integration with Apple’s online stores, could make downloading books, newspapers and magazines as easy and popular as downloading music. Most important, it will allow for advertising, on which American magazines, in particular, depend. Tablets could eventually lead to a wholesale switch to digital delivery, which would allow newspapers and book publishers to cut costs by closing down printing presses.

更进一步而言，尽管平板电脑无法拯救弱势媒体，但有可能推动强势媒体发展。在网上根据浏览内容收费原来难以实现，以后将变得更容易。读者已准备付费在Kindle上阅读报纸与杂志（包括经济学家）。IPad拥有彩屏，并与苹果公司的网上商店整合起来，这将使下载书籍、报纸和杂志与下载音乐一样容易与流行起来。最重要的是，这可以引入广告，而美国杂志尤为依赖广告。平板电脑最终可能使数字产品批发放送，这将使报纸与书籍出版商停止印制纸质媒体，以削减费用。

If Mr Jobs manages to pull off another amazing trick with another brilliant device, then the benefits of the digital revolution to media companies with genuinely popular products may soon start to outweigh the costs. But some media companies are dying, and a new gadget will not resurrect them. Even the Jesus Tablet cannot perform miracles.

若乔布斯以另一款非凡产品再显神通，那么，对那些拥有真正受人欢迎产品的媒体而言，这场数字革命带来的益处可能很快超过所付出的代价。但是，一些媒体已在消亡，一种新发明的产品不会令其复活，甚至平板耶酥也创造不了奇迹。

注1：首次将图形界面广泛应用到个人电脑上。
注2：似是短语hold the front page引申出来。

PS 译者忠实翻译原文，旨在交流，并不代表认同文中观点。

译者：龙辰
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30559&extra=&page=1

The Bihari enlightenment
开化的比哈尔邦
India’s most notorious state is failing to live up to its reputation
臭名不再
Jan 28th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

ONE of the more unlikely case studies offered by Harvard Business School describes the turnaround of Indian Railways under Lalu Prasad Yadav, a shrewd, roguish politician who ruled Bihar, India’s most depressed and unruly state, for 15 years. His predecessor at the railways, Nitish Kumar, now leads Bihar. He may one day draw similar interest from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, for rarely has a failed state escaped political bankruptcy so fast (see article).
哈佛商学院的学习案例之一就是亚达夫手中印度铁路的逆转，这实在是令人跌破眼镜。印度现任铁道部长亚达夫(Lalu Prasad Yadav)是一位狡猾的流氓政客，他曾经治理印度最贫穷，无管制的比哈尔邦15年。而印度前任铁道部长，现在治理着比哈尔邦的尼蒂斯-库马尔（NITISH kumar）有一天可以会同样引起哈佛大学肯尼迪正政治学院的兴趣，因为时至如今象比哈尔邦这样一个失败的邦省能如此之快地逃脱政治破产的命运，实属罕见。

With a population bigger than Germany’s, Bihar still suffers from potholed roads, indolent teachers, apathetic officials, insurgent Maoists, devastating floods, shortages of power, skewed landholdings, caste resentments and an income per head that is only 40% of India’s as a whole. And yet, bad as that may sound, Bihar is far better today than it was in November 2005, when Mr kumar came to power.
比哈尔邦人口比德国多，面临的问题也不少：道路坑坑洼洼，老师懒于教学，官员得过且过。还有叛乱的毛主义分子，滔天的洪水，短缺的电力，歪斜的房屋，种姓制度（注1）引起的仇恨，这些都够比哈尔邦受的了。除此之外，比哈尔邦人均收入只有全印人均收入的40%。这些听起来是糟透了，可是今天的比哈尔邦可比库马尔刚刚接手时的2005年11月要好多了。

Today Bihar has pot-holes, where formerly it didn’t have roads. Businessmen grumble that they cannot raise money to invest in the state, whereas before they spirited their capital out of it. People complain that Mr kumar’s government has fallen short of its ambitious development plans. But at least it has ambitions. Mr Yadav did not offer development. At best, he promised izzat, or self-respect, to downtrodden castes, who once voted as their landlords demanded, and later enjoyed picking someone their “superiors” could not abide.
今天的比哈尔邦道路上有些小洞，可是以前是连路都没有的。商人们嘟囔着说他们筹不到钱到这里投资，然而以前他们只会从该地抽逃资本的。民众抱怨库马尔政府没能实现其雄心勃勃的发展计划，可是至少政府是有抱负的。而亚达夫连个发展计划都没有，他最多只承诺尊重饱受权势压迫的属于种姓制度下层的人民，这些人曾经只是按照主人的意思投票，而后他们也乐于投票给一些“上层人”受不了的候选人。

How has Mr Kumar pulled off this transformation? He first imposed law and order, restoring the state to its role as night-watchman rather than rogue. He has put several gangsters—the sort of people who in the past became heroes—behind bars. He demanded speedy trials, where formerly defendants could intimidate witnesses and drag out proceedings. He has ensured that convicted criminals no longer get lucrative licences for liquor stores and ration shops, which sell subsidised food and fuel. And just as police reformers in America fixed broken windows, Mr kumar’s police improved perceptions of safety by forcing Bihar’s many gun-owners to conceal their weapons, rather than brandishing them out of their cars.
那库马尔是怎样进行他的改革的呢？第一步，他确立了法律和秩序，让该邦重新回归其守夜人(注2)的角色而不再做个恶棍。一些曾经是英雄的的歹徒被他关进牢笼。他也要求加快案件处理速度，因为从前被告通常威胁证人拖延审判进程。此外，他还担保一旦定罪则不能再取得获利行业执照开设酒水商店和出售补助食品和燃料的配给商店。正如美国警察改革者修补破窗一样，库马尔的警察也提升了该地安全系数，他们要求比哈尔邦枪支所有者掩藏武器，而不能像以前一样开车举出武器炫耀。

People now feel confident enough to buy cars and go out after dark. The economy, always volatile, has grown at double-digit rates, on average, since he took power, partly thanks to funds from Delhi. He built over 2,400km of roads last year. In Bihar’s villages, posters advertising immunisation compete with adverts offering cheap mobile-phone calls.
现在，人们对买车和夜间外出都有足够的信心了。一直波动的经济，自库马尔执政以来也以平均两位数的速度增长了，当然还是要感谢来自德里的贷款。 去年比哈尔邦修建了2400公里长的公路，在村落，宣传免疫服务的广告和宣传提供便宜手机电话服务的广告一样随处可见了。

Thanks. Now what?
多谢了，可是现在怎么样呢？
The policies MrKumarhas pursued so far have broad appeal. After the national elections in May 2009, a survey found that 88% of people were at least somewhat satisfied with the state government’s work. His second act will be trickier. He has shied away from land reform, which is both fiendishly complex and deeply unnerving to the upper-caste landowners included in his coalition. And to overcome what one minister describes as a “crisis of implementation”—teachers who don’t teach, nurses who don’t nurse, roads built but not maintained, funds received but not spent—he will have to overcome the most obdurate caste of all: the local bureaucracy.
库马尔实行的这些政策受到了大众的欢迎。2009年5月的全国大选过后，一项调查显示88%的人民都对邦政府的工作至多至少的表示满意。他另一项行动要赢得人们的满意就困难多了。他避开了土地改革。因为对于处于上层种姓的土地所有者（其中包括库马尔联盟中人士），土地改革既招人怨，十分复杂又让改革者身心疲惫。而库马尔必须要克服种姓制度中最顽固的一关，即克服当地官僚阶级的反抗。只有这样，他才能克服一位官员所提的“实施危机”，即克服教师不教，护士不护，道路修好了却没人维护，各种基金筹集好了却花不了种种情况。

More than the floods that frequently test Bihar’s embankments, local officials fear the rising expectations of people who no longer meekly accept their lot in life. Their instinct is to contain the waters by discouraging such self-assertion. But it is only by giving people their say, by turning unmet need into a political demand, that the state apparatus will begin to do its job. Mr Kumar must win re-election before the year is out. The biggest risk to him may be the rising expectations of his constituents. But that is also the measure of his success.
洪水时常检验着比哈尔邦的大堤，当地政府官员担心的是人们已不再仅仅接受命运安排，对生活的期望值越来越高。color=Red]直觉上他们要做的就是堵住洪水，打消人们的这种笃信。但是只有给人民说话的权利，满足他们政治上的要求，政府各机构才算开始其工作。在今年结束前库马尔一定要在再次选举中获胜。现在面临的最大威胁也许是来自选民高涨的期望，但这也许是他获胜的法宝。

注1：种姓制度：印度人口众多，百分之八十二为印度教徒，其中分为不同等级的社会集团。种姓制度主要存在于印度教中，对伊斯兰教和锡克教都有不同程度的影响。
印度的种姓制度将人分为四个不同等级：婆罗门、刹帝利、吠舍和首陀罗。婆罗门即僧侣，为第一种姓，地位最高，从事文化教育和祭祀；刹帝利即武士、王公、贵族等，为第二种姓，从事行政管理和打仗；吠舍即商人，为第三种姓，从事商业贸易；首陀罗即农民，为第四种姓，地位最低，从事农业和各种体力及手工业劳动等。后来随着生产的发展，各种姓又派生出许多等级。除四大种姓外，还有一种被排除在种姓外的人，即“不可接触者”或“贱民”。他们的社会地位最低，最受歧视，绝大部分为农村贫雇农和城市清洁工、苦力等。
种姓制度已经有三千多年的历史，早在原始社会的末期就开始萌芽。后来在阶级分化和奴隶制度形成过程中，原始的社会分工形成等级化和固定化，逐渐形成严格的种姓制度。
种姓是世袭的。几千年来，种姓制度对人们的日常生活和风俗习惯方面影响很深，种族歧视至今仍未消除，尤其广大农村情况还比较严重。
独立后，印度政府采取了很多措施来消除种姓歧视。首先是制定了有关法律规定。1948年国会通过了废除种姓制度的议案。后来宪法和各邦法律也都做出相应规定，保护低级种姓利益。政府还在教育、就业、福利等方面对低级种姓者提供大量帮助。
随着社会的进步，印度的种姓制度也在发生变化。如种姓制度中的内部通婚制受到冲击，如高种姓的女子现在也同低种姓的男子通婚了。人们对职业的看法也有所改变，衡量职业高低不再以宗教思想为基础，而以金钱、权力为基础。在城市里，各种姓人们之间加强了来往与交流。

注2：守夜人：在18世紀有公民權的時候，國家就是一個night watchman，一個夜警，只是在提醒大家不要去侵犯別人，不要去影響別人的宗教信仰自由，不要去影響別人的言論自由，不要去干涉別人的經濟自由。

译者：hellorainylin
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Art.view
艺术.观点

In with the old（注1）
沉醉往昔

A cosmopolitan show of antiques in New York
纽约世界古董展

Jan 27th 2010 | From The Economist online

VISITORS to New York’s Winter Antiques Show, from January 22nd through the 31st, are greeted with what appears to be a large stained-glass window in many shades of purple. Close up, this work is in fact some two-dozen back-lit objects made of amethyst glass, arranged on shelves against a faux window (pictured in slideshow below). They come from Beauport（注2）in Massachusetts, one of 36 houses overseen by Historic New England（注3）, America’s first and largest preservation organisation. To celebrate the group’s centennial, an array of its treasures makes up the feature exhibition of this annual show.
1月22日至31日，参观者来到纽约冬季古董展，一扇巨大的彩色玻璃窗迎面而来，多种紫色，深浅不一。凑近细看，这件作品其实是由24个背景灯映照下的紫水晶玻璃制成，排列在以一扇人造窗户为背景的架子上（图见下方幻灯片）。这些东西来自马萨诸塞州的博波尔（Beauport）[博物馆]，该馆是美国第一个也是最大的[文物]保护组织——“古代新英格兰”（Historic New England）监管的36处房屋之一。为庆祝该组织百年诞辰，其拥有的一批宝物组成了这次年度特展。

Jason J. Weller

The Winter Show is owned by the East Side Settlement House, a social-service organisation that supports local families and community development. Profits from admissions and special events will benefit the organisation’s South Bronx education programme. That the Winter Antiques Show can comfortably bring together such disparate worlds and goals (historic preservation and urban literacy) makes this a true celebration of Americana.
本届冬季展属“东区慈善中心（the East Side Settlement House）”所有，这是一家支持本地家庭及社区发展的社会公益服务性组织。入场费及特别活动产生的收益，将有利于该组织的“南布朗克斯（South Bronx）”教育计划。本届冬季古董展，将根本不在一个领域、目的也不同的历史文物保护与教育促进计划自然地融合在一起, 使之成为了一场真正意义上的美国文物与史料盛会。

The fair is timed to coincide with Americana sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Bonhams. Recent auction results surely gave exhibitors hope. On January 22nd Sotheby’s sold a silver punch-bowl （注4）by Cornelius Kierstede, made in New York in the early 1700s, for a whopping $5.9m. This was more than ten times the low estimate and seven times the previous auction record for American silver.
本届展会正好与克里斯蒂、索斯比与宝龙拍卖行（Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Bonhams）的美国文物销售时间一致。最近的拍卖结果想必给参展者带来了希望。1月22日，索斯比拍卖行以590万美元天价，卖出了一件Cornelius Kierstede于18世纪早期在纽约制作的银质大酒杯。[这一售价]是最低估价的10倍多，也是此前美国银器拍卖纪录的7倍。

At the charity gala preview, around 150 smartly dressed guests queued patiently to be first through the door. (Their spirits were buoyed by the wine and canapés served by attentive staff.) Once inside they pounced. Attendance was up on last year, with more cheque-books in evidence. In the first half-hour Barbara Israel Garden Antiques sold ten pieces of statuary, including a doe and faun group （注5）for $135,000.
慈善晚会预展前，大约150名衣冠楚楚的客人耐心排队，以抢先进门。（工作人员细致周到地端上美酒点心，来宾激情澎湃。）一旦入内，他们就扑向[各处展品]。出席人数较去年有所上涨，支票簿增加即可佐证。“芭芭拉以色列花园古董展”（Barbara Israel Garden Antiques）开展半小时，就卖出了10件雕塑，包括一组母鹿与农牧神[雕像]，售价13.5万美元。

A year ago the show changed its definition of antique, from objects more than 100 years old to those made before 1960. Fortunately this allowed for the appearance this year of an eye-catching, whimsical chandelier from 1920 (pictured above), brought by Frank & Barbara Pollack, Americana dealers from Illinois. The piece consists of three wrought-iron arms, each cut into a silhouette of an elk, with hanging green-glass lights that look like gigantic acorns with “hats” of cast iron. It was love at first site for one visitor, who snapped it up for a five-figure sum soon after the opening.
一年前，该展会更改了其对于古董的定义，以前指超过一百年的物件，现在则指1960年前制造的东西。幸好如此，一件引人注目奇形怪状的1920年产枝形吊灯，今年才得以亮相（上图所示），这件古董是由伊利诺伊州来的美国文物商弗兰克&芭芭拉•波拉克带来的。它包括三只铁臂，每只切割成麋鹿状，[下]悬几个绿色玻璃灯，这些灯看起来就像头戴生铁“帽”的巨型橡果。有个参观者对它一见钟情，开展后不久，便以5位数的总价抢购了。

For all its fame as an American show, this year’s event is a cosmopolitan mix. London dealers include Daniel Katz, whose collection of Renaissance and 18th-century sculptures features a (quite literally) in-your-face gilded and painted stucco plaque of Beethoven’s head ($150,000, featured in slideshow below); and Nicholas Grindley, a private dealer in London and Beijing, who brought Chinese furniture, laquerware and works of art. Mr Grindley says that 30 years ago he bought in the East and sold in the West. Now the situation has reversed: he is buying back from his Western clients and selling in the East. He is making his Winter Show debut in the hopes of attracting new, young Western collectors.
[该展]尽管以美国展览著称，但今年的活动却混合了世界各地的[展品]。伦敦来的一些交易商，包括丹尼尔•卡茨和尼古拉斯•葛第礼。 前者收藏的文艺复兴和18世纪时期的雕塑中，尤以一件镀金并涂满石灰斑的贝多芬头像（售价15万美元，下方幻灯片所示）最为突出，（毫不夸张地说）咄咄逼人; 后者是一位往来于北京和伦敦之间的私人交易商，这次带来了中国家具，漆器和工艺品。葛第礼先生说，30年前，他在东方买进[宝物]而在西方卖出。现在情况逆转了：从西方客户手里回购而在东方售出。他在冬季展上亮相，希望借此吸引一些新的西方年轻藏家。

Hans P. Kraus, junior, a photography dealer based in New York, is exhibiting the work of William Henry Fox Talbot, a pioneering English photographer, with prices that range from $10,000 to $400,000 (depending on an image’s rarity). His stall is further enriched by objects from the archive of Lacock Abbey, the former home of Fox Talbot.
纽约摄影作品交易商小汉斯•P•克劳斯（Hans P. Kraus），展出了英国先锋摄影师威廉•亨利•福克斯•塔尔博特（William Henry Fox Talbot）的作品，（根据图像的稀有性，）其售价范围从1万美元至40万美元[不等]。来自福克斯•塔尔博特故居拉科克修道院（Lacock Abbey）档案库的[大师]作品，进一步丰富了他的展台。

There is a delightful selection of glittering jewellery at this show. Among the glamorous pieces exhibited by A la Vielle Russie, dealers on Fifth Avenue known for their superb Fabergé, is a charming example of sophisticated Americana: a diamond-centred flower brooch with petals of elongated Mississippi River pearls（注6）. Designed in the 1950s, it is priced at $4,800.
本届展会上，还有闪闪发光的珠宝荟萃，赏心悦目。位于第五街，以顶级法贝热（Fabergé）[珠宝]闻名的珠宝商甲•拉•维耶勒•露兹（A la Vielle Russie），展出了款款光彩夺目的饰品，其中一件，堪称美国文物做工精细的迷人典范：中镶钻石的花朵胸针，延伸出嵌有密西西比河珍珠的花瓣。20世纪50年代设计，售价达4800美元。

Sandra Hindman of Les Enluminures (which has offices in Chicago and a gallery in Paris) has brought illuminated manuscripts and early rings. A striking Roman ring, priced at $75,000, has the name of its original owner cut into its wide band. Another “Homonooea” is unlikely to happen by, but there is bound to be more than one woman visiting the Winter Antiques Show for whom the ring’s intaglio of victory would seem appropriate.
Les Enluminures（在芝加哥设有办公室并在巴黎开办了一家画廊），该公司的桑德拉•海得曼（Sandra Hindman）带来了泥金写本与古代指环。这个惊人的罗马指环，售价达7.5万美元，以其原始主人的名字命名，其指箍被切得宽宽的。[在本届展会上，] 未必那么巧有另一位[与这枚指环同名的] “Homonooea”[先生或女士到场买下，成为其新主人]。不过，前来参观这届冬季古董展的女士，肯定有不止一位会觉得这枚刻有凹字“胜利”的指纹，非常适合自己[，想成为其主人]。

译者：zhanyisky

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New fiction 1
新小说 1
The young and the restless
年轻与躁动

Jan 28th 2010
From The Economist print edition

British and American fiction gets off to a promising start in 2010
2010年英美小说开局呈祥

The Unnamed. By Joshua Ferris. Reagan Arthur; 310 pages; $24.99. Viking; £12.99. Buy from Amazon.com
《莫名者》.约书亚·费里斯. 里根亚瑟出版社；310页；24.99美元.海盗图书网；12.99英镑. 从亚马逊网购买

VLADIMIR NABOKOV, who liked to observe other people, once declared that “professional book reviewers are veritable bookmakers”. They gleefully declare who’s in, who’s out, and ask: “Where are the snows of yesteryear?” Hot young novelists, many believe, are meant to follow a predictable script. First, burst onto the scene with some bold, voice-of-the-generation debut—preferably with a comely author photo. Then, years later, deliver to the expectant public a sophomore effort that is, alas, disappointing. Critics favour lamenting squandered promise to praising yet another fine book from someone with unlined skin.

热衷于评点他人作品的弗拉迪米尔·纳博科夫曾经宣称：“只有书评家才算是一本书真正的作者”。他们一边评判着别人的优劣得失，一边问着“去年白雪，如今安在？”乐此不疲。很多人认为，当红的年轻小说家们注定都会蹈循一条老路：起初，他们的一炮走红都是凭借着其富有时代锐气的处女作——往往还配有一张作者靓照；而几年后，他们给期待中的读者交出的第二部作品则往往，唉，让人大失所望。批评家们都眼巴巴地等着将自己的溢美之词送给能够写出第二部好作品的年轻作家。
Not all writers oblige. Occasionally, a well-known name, such as Peter Carey, an Australian, will go through a fallow period only to enjoy a return to form; a rare few, having written a debut of note, then go on to pen an even better second book.

然而并不是所有的作家都极具天赋。一些有名气的作家，比如澳大利亚人彼特·凯里，偶尔也需要过一段清闲时光只为找回良好的状态；很少有人能够在拿出一部为人称道的处女作之后，还能再写出更好的作品来。

Joshua Ferris became an international success in 2007 with “Then We Came to the End”, a smart and breezy satire of office life in an advertising firm. Told in the collective first person, it was a stylish rendering of workplace ambivalence in the wake of the dotcom bust. (“We were delighted to have jobs. We bitched about them constantly.”) It wasn’t perfect, but it was fresh, with pages that turned freely and unpretentiously. At 32, Mr Ferris—gracious, photogenic, based in Brooklyn—was anointed a writer to watch.

约书亚·费里斯于2007年凭借《我们快到头了》一书红遍全球，这是一部轻松明快的喜剧小说，描述一家广告公司的白领办公室生活。全书以第一人称的视角，将互联网泡沫年代人们的矛盾与苦闷进行了精细的刻画。（“我们曾经快乐地工作；我们现在不停地抱怨。”）并非完美无缺，但却新颖别致，情节的起承转合顺畅自然，朴实无华。费里斯——这位优雅、俊俏、现居住于布鲁克林的年轻人——32岁时就已被奉为天才作家。

Readers have not had long to wait for “The Unnamed”, his second novel. Anyone keen on another comedy of manners will be disappointed. So too will those who hoped to write off Mr Ferris as a victim of literary hype.

读者们并没有等待太久，他的第二部小说《莫名者》很快便已问世。以为这又会是一部时尚喜剧小说的人要失望了，同样会失望的还有那些试图把费里斯定性为又一颗文坛流星的批评家们。

From the opening page, he makes it plain that this is a very different book. “It was the cruellest winter. The winds were rabid off the rivers. Ice came down like poisoned darts…They were waiting for him. They didn’t know they were waiting for him.” The novel seizes readers by the lapels with a story that feels serious and mysterious. Tim Farnsworth, a successful Manhattan lawyer in his 40s, returns home one night and declares to his wife, Jane, “It’s back.” What’s back? A strange, unknown disease—one that compels the hero to walk helplessly, incessantly, until he drops from exhaustion. After a reprieve, Tim is once again a victim of his wayward body, “the frightened soul inside the runaway train of mindless matter, peering out from the conductor’s car in horror.”

一开篇，作者就清楚地表明这是一部很不寻常的书。“那是一个酷冷的冬日，寒风从冰河上呼啸而过，飞落的冰碴如同带毒的短箭……他们在等着他，它们不知道他们在等着他。”故事在一种凝重、诡秘的气氛中展开，紧紧抓住了读者的心。40岁的蒂姆·法恩斯沃斯是曼哈顿一名成功的律师，一天晚上他回到家对他的妻子简说：“又来了”。什么又来了？是他身上某种奇怪而未知的疾病——某种迫使主人公不停行走直至力竭而昏厥的疾病，又发作了。在经过了一个短暂的和缓之后，蒂姆又一次成为他那个倔强身躯的受害者，“失控的列车发疯似地向前飞驰，驾驶室里受惊的灵魂惊恐地盯着窗外。”

Tim is otherwise “horse-healthy” and content, a self-assured workaholic, devoted husband and father to a teenage daughter. But in a flash he is uncontrollably off, leaving his wife to find him passed out in a municipal parking place, a hospital or behind some chemist’s shop in the middle of the night. “Was she up for this?” Jane asks herself. These spells last for months at a time, and caring for him is a full-time job. But Jane has no choice: he could die out there. So she reads survivalist manuals, prepares his pack (a first-aid kit, snacks, GPS, a poncho—to carry at all times), and then waits for the call to pick him up. The only alternative is to tie him to the bed and ignore his screams.

蒂姆本来身体很健康，生活也算富足，是一个工作狂，也是一位称职的丈夫和一个未成年女儿的父亲。而他突然间就失去了自我控制，使得他的妻子每于午夜时分在停车场、医院或者药店门口找到已昏厥在地的他。“我该怎么办呢？”简自问道。她丈夫每次发作起来都持续几个月，而照顾他就成了她唯一要做的工作。简没有其他选择：在外面他随时会死。于是她读了生存专家指南，给丈夫准备了防护包（装有急救设备、零食、定位仪，以及随时会用到的雨衣等物），然后等着电话去接他。除此之外，还有一个办法就是把他捆绑到床上，任由他叫喊。

Doctors around the world have no idea what the problem is. Tim, alone in his mutinous body, is left wondering whether the trouble is in his head. Readers wonder about this too. Here Mr Ferris achieves a clever balance: Tim behaves strangely, but isn’t that natural for anyone who loses the life he understood? Isn’t madness inevitable when suffering from something no one can explain? A subplot about a murder trial, which yields a haunting exchange between Tim and a possible suspect on a bridge at night, raises more questions about his mental stability. Yet Jane stops speculating that her husband might be crazy after she goes through the menopause. She could only imagine how infuriating it would be if a doctor insisted her hot flushes were “all in her head”.

全世界的医生都搞不清原因在哪儿；蒂姆，连同他那个不听话的身躯，也不知道自己脑袋到底出了什么状况；读者们同样也不能明白。这里，作者费里斯的小说达到了一种很高明的对比协调：蒂姆的行为十分怪异，然而对于那些对自我失去掌控的人来说，这样的怪异难道不也很正常么？遭受到某种让人无法解释的疾病之后，难道不是必然要走向疯诞？小说中有一个次要情节涉及一起谋杀案，其中蒂姆和杀人疑犯之间有一场夜间发生在桥上的神秘对话，这个情节使得读者对蒂姆的精神状况催生出更多的疑问。然而，后来当简经历了更年期的时候，她便不再去怀疑她丈夫是不是发疯了，因为她已能够想象如果哪个医生非要坚称她的烦躁情绪都是“来自于大脑”，她将会多么的抓狂。

Mr Ferris keeps his prose direct and uncluttered, with only occasional flourishes (Tim’s feet “were like two engorged and squishy hearts”; a diner’s “fluorescent brutality” is “the national colour of insomnia and transience”). His fondness for his characters sometimes veers towards the sentimental. Still, he exercises a mature writer’s restraint, content to leave questions unanswered. He also has a fine ear for speech, and a good sense of what feels real, even when chronicling the surreal.

费里斯保持着他文笔的直率和简洁，但偶尔也会有几处花里胡哨的句子（蒂姆的双脚“就像两颗憋闷而潮湿的心”；那位就餐者的“闪着荧光的粗暴”就像“失眠症一样是一种民族特色”）。他对那位主人公的偏爱有时也稍显矫情。但他依然有着成熟作家的节制，比如在小说中设置疑惑而又并不作答。他对言说有着极高的领悟力，而且对现实世界时刻保持着敏锐，即便他是在编写超现实主义的小说。

Mr Ferris insists that “The Unnamed” is not a work of magical realism, but of “realist magic”. By inventing an incurable disease, he can meditate on its impact—on a marriage, on a career, on a character’s self-esteem—without dragging in the baggage of a familiar illness. This also amplifies the horror, leaving readers just as perplexed about what is afflicting Tim. Is this a physical or mental problem? Can a line be drawn between the two? In the last third of the book, Tim gives himself over to his need to walk. Raving and deteriorating, he lets his legs take him across the country, living a hobo’s life without possessions or attachments (“To own something was to keep it on his back or risk losing it forever”). Yet Tim’s dilemmas still feel real and his needs sympathetic. How does he go on? How does anyone?

费里斯一再说到，《莫名者》的风格不是魔幻现实主义，而是现实主义魔幻。通过发明一种不可治愈的疾病——不是牵强地通过一种常见的病——他才能够对受到这种疾病冲击的婚姻、职业以及主人公的自尊进行一番沉思。而这样做也能放大那种恐惧感，使得读者对发生在主人公身上的事情感到莫名的惊恐与不解，读者会问，问题到底是出在生理上呢还是心理上？作者能不能再多一些着墨描写呢？在本书的最后三分之一，蒂姆完全放任了自己的行走欲望。狂乱疯癫，每况愈下，蒂姆任由自己的双腿带着他游走于天南海北，过着无依无靠的浪人生活（“拥有某物就要一直把它背在肩上，否则就会永远地失去”）然而蒂姆的苦难又是那么的真切，那么的让人同情。他如何继续下去？我们每个人又如何继续下去？

This is a story about a man with a walking problem, but it is also a larger tale about struggling with uncertainty. Scattered throughout the novel are some odd events: blizzards, floods, fires, dying bees. Mr Ferris is reminding us of how little we know about the world we live in, and how little we know about ourselves within it, and yet we persist. This is not to say that Tim’s walking is some clunky metaphor. Mr Ferris is wise enough not to teach a lesson. Rather, he has teased ordinary circumstances into something extraordinary, which is exactly what we want our fiction writers to do.

这是一个关于患有行走强迫症的人的故事，而它也同样是一部与不确定性进行抗争的史诗。小说中处处充满着古怪的意象：暴风雪、洪水、火灾、垂死的蜜蜂等等。作者费里斯在提醒我们，对于我们生活在其中的这个世界以及我们自己，我们都还了解得太少，但我们却仍在安于现状。这并不是说，蒂姆的行走是某种笨拙的隐喻。费里斯先生很明智，他没有在小说里进行说教，而是通过戏谑的方式将人生中的寻常境况变得不同寻常，而这正是我们希望小说家们都去做的。

译者：eco彬彬
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