[2008.08.30] 伊拉克：明智的话就快撤吧

Iraq
伊拉克

Leave as soon as you sensibly can
明智的话就快撤吧

Aug 28th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Iraqis naturally want their country back, and should have it as soon as they think they are ready
伊拉克人当然想收回自己的国家，而且只能是在他们认为时机成熟的时候

IT IS a cheering new sign of confidence that Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, is now demanding an agreement with the United States that would require all American troops to leave the country by the end of 2011. That is a bit later than Barack Obama’s proposal to bring them home by May 2010 and a bit earlier than John McCain’s more tentative hopes for a withdrawal by 2013. But it suggests that the spectrum of serious possibilities is narrowing. It shows that Iraqis are beginning to believe in their ability to stand on their own feet. And it flashes a ray of light at the end of Iraq’s still dismally dark tunnel.
伊拉克总理Nuri al-Maliki目前正在要求同美国签定撤军协议，规定所有美国部队于2011年底前撤离伊拉克；在伊拉克人看来，这无疑是一个令人欢欣鼓舞的自信表现。这个日期比奥巴马建议的2010年晚了一些，却比麦凯恩希望的2013年早了一些。这预示着现实可能性的离散范围在缩小，伊拉克人开始相信他们有能力照顾好自己，如同伊拉克已依旧阴暗的隧道尽头闪现出一丝希望的光芒。

Iraq is far less horrible than it was two years ago. The Americans’ surge of extra troops, a series of ceasefires and deals with once hostile Sunni tribes in the west and with Shia militias in the slums of Baghdad, the windfall of extra cash from oil exports: all these things have given the country fresh hope.
眼下的伊拉克远没有2年前那般恐怖：大量美军后援的进驻；同曾经很敌对的势力达成一系列停火协议，包括西部的逊尼派以及巴格达贫民区的什叶派军事组织；原油出口创造的额外现金收入。所有这些都给了这个国家全新的希望。

But it is still a bloody mess. Some 4m Iraqis have fled the country or remain displaced from their homes within it. Hundreds are still being killed every month. A vicious insurgency persists, especially in the mixed-sect provinces north of Baghdad and around the northern city of Mosul. No solution to the rancorous dispute over the now mainly Kurdish-run city of Kirkuk is in sight. The Iraqis have yet to decide how to manage the oil and dish out its revenue. Above all, the newly dominant Shia Arabs have yet fully to accommodate the aggrieved Sunnis, who ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein and since its inception as an independent country nearly 80 years ago.
但现实仍然是异常糟糕：大约400万伊拉克人要么逃离了自己的国家，要么在国家内流离失所，每月仍有数百人会丢掉性命。凶残的暴乱依然持续在教派混居的地区，特别是巴格达北部以及摩苏尔周围区域；库德人为主基尔库克市依然充斥着仇恨的争端，然而近期确丝毫没有寻求到解决放案的迹象。伊拉克人也还没有决定如何管理原油业务以及如何分配创造的收入。最重要的是，新近处于统治地位的什叶派阿拉伯人还无法接纳愤愤不平的逊尼派；自伊拉克独立以来，逊尼派在萨达姆.侯赛因的领导下统治了这个国家近80年。

So Mr Maliki’s optimism must be tempered with many a caveat. His new insistence on a strict timetable is partly intended to burnish a nationalist image in the face of his populist Shia rival, Muqtada al-Sadr, who has long demanded the immediate removal of the Americans. Though the Sadrists may not stand in the upcoming provincial elections as a party, individuals known as disciples of Mr Sadr are likely to do well. And Mr Maliki knows that what is agreed upon with an outgoing American administration may have to be adjusted by a new one; deadlines will be subject to shifting circumstances.
所以Maliki的乐观必须得到诸多警告的宽容，他之所以坚决主张这个严格的时间表，部分原因是需要刻意在什叶派平民主义者对手面前宣扬国家主义者形象；Muqtada al-Sadr作为平民主义的领导者长期以来一直要求美军的迅速撤离。虽然萨达党不会以政党派别参加即将举行的地区选举，但是那些萨达尔的弟子也许会有很好的作为。Maliki也知道所有那些同美国政府达成的协议也许都需要进行调整，因为上届政府即将卸任，新班子即将上台；所以撤军的最后时限会根据时局的改变而作出调整。

In any event, he still has a lot to do to keep Iraq heading in the right direction-and give it a chance of meeting a tighter deadline for an American exit. For one thing, he should strive far harder to bring into a new national-security structure the Sunni fighters known as “Sons of Iraq”, whom the Americans have been paying to fend off al-Qaeda and other insurgents in Sunni areas of Baghdad and in western Iraq. Instead, there have been alarming reports that Mr Maliki’s men have been seeking to arrest several hundred of the leading “Sons”, thereby risking a deeper rupture between Iraq’s two main Arab communities. It is also vital that Mr Maliki overcomes recent glitches to ensure that provincial elections, due late this year or early next, do take place, so that the Sunnis who had previously boycotted them are re-empowered. Parliamentary elections should follow at the end of next year. It is by no means certain that Mr Maliki will keep his job as prime minister.
总之，他还需要付出很多努力以保证伊拉克沿着正确的方向前行，并且有可能让美军的撤离进程进一步加快。比如说，他应该花费大量精力将逊尼战士纳入全新的国家安全架构中，这些人被称为”伊拉克之子”，这些人受美国资助在伊拉克西部及巴格达的逊尼派区域防止基地组织和其他的反叛活动。但是有预警报告指出 Maliki的手下抓捕了数百名伊拉克之子的带头人，此举很有可能加深伊拉克两大主要阿拉伯团体的裂隙。另一个关键是Maliki需要在近期克服阻碍，确保区域选举于今年底或明年初如期举行，这样先前被抵制的逊尼人就可以再次参政；而议会选举应该随后在明年底举行。而Maliki本人是否可以继续他总理的工作，还绝不是一个定数。

Don’t be boxed in
切勿成为瓮中鳖

Moreover, any Iraqi leader will still need the flexibility to call on foreign allies’ military muscle. Iraq’s army has improved but cannot yet defeat the insurgency on its own. If Mr Obama wins the presidency, he may prove wisely more elastic in his interpretation of an American withdrawal; Mr McCain still rightly refuses to be hemmed in by deadlines. If Iraq’s leader tells the Americans to go forthwith, they must do so. But that is unlikely to happen in a hurry. Whatever the arguments over the American-led invasion, it remains the case that a hectic exit would be bad for everyone, especially the Iraqis.
此外，所有伊拉克领导者都需要可以自由招唤国外盟友的军事力量，虽然伊拉克军队提高了不少，但还不足以依靠自身的力量来镇压反叛。如果奥巴马此次入主白宫，他也许会明智的采取更有弹性的方式来解读撤军；麦凯恩仍然拒绝受制于撤军时限。如果伊拉克领导者需要美军马上撤离，他们必须配合；但是这种情况近期内不太可能发生。无论美国引领的入侵面对多少非议，人们都认为仓促的撤军似乎对各方都不利，特别是对伊拉克人。

译者：Tidehunter   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13681&page=1