[2008.08.30] 美国总统大选：回归真实的麦凯恩

The presidential race
总统大选

Bring back the real McCain
回归真实的麦凯恩

Aug 28th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The Republican candidate is fighting hard, but he needs to do more to separate himself from George Bush
共和党候选人正在不懈奋斗,但他需要进一步把自己与乔治布什区别开来

AMERICA’S Republicans head for the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St Paul this weekend in a position that few of them could have imagined even a month ago. Although voters claim that they prefer Democrats to the representatives of the Grand Old Party by a solid margin of more than ten percentage points, and though it seems that there is hardly a soul in the nation who thinks things are on the right track, by the start of the conventions John McCain was more or less level with Barack Obama in the opinion polls. There is a genuine chance that, even after almost eight years of George Bush’s calamitous presidency, the voters may actually opt for another stint of Republican administration. In part this reflects the weaknesses that lie alongside the charismatic skills paraded by Mr Obama in Denver this week: his inexperience, especially in foreign affairs, at a time when the world looks more and more complex and troubling, and a certain cerebral aloofness that seems to make it hard for him to connect with Middle America. But a big part of the reason is that, in Mr McCain, the Republicans have rallied round the only candidate who could have saved them.
美国的共和党人纷纷来到明尼阿波利斯和圣保罗这两座孪生城市.他们当下的情况即使在一个月之前,也是不可想象的.虽然选民声称与老大党的代表相比,他们更喜欢民主党人(民主党领先共和党十几个百分点),虽然国内几乎没有人认为美国走在正确的轨道上,但是在代表大会召开前夕,民调显示麦凯恩和奥巴马的支持率几乎相差无几.的确有可能,在经历了多灾多难的八年布什时代以后,选民会再次选择一届共和党政府.这在一定程度上说明,虽然本周奥巴马在丹佛风光无限,但在其魅力的光环下潜藏着一些弱点:他缺乏经验,特别是在外部世界看起来越来越复杂和困难的时候,他在外交事务方面缺陷显得尤其刺眼;另外,他那种理性清高的姿态,让美国中产阶级很难认同他.但在更大程度上这也是因为,共和党现在已经紧紧地团结在这位唯一能够挽救他们的候选人周围.

Mr McCain’s fierce patriotism appeals to the security-conscious, while his long history of opposition to the shortcomings of his own party (its hostility to immigrants and its insouciance in the face of climate change, to take two examples) gives him more pull with independent voters than any other Republican could have offered. The Economist particularly likes him for his robust commitment to free trade, and his firmness in the face of American losses in Iraq. Above all, he has often displayed a degree of political courage that Mr Obama has never shown. This at least offers the chance that, as president, Mr McCain would be able to make bipartisan deals with a Congress that looks certain to be heavily Democratic.
麦凯恩激烈的爱国主义立场能够吸引那些对安全事务非常关心的人.他长久以来对抗共和党的种种缺点问题(仅举两例,它对移民的敌意和对气候变化的漠不关心)使得他比其他任何共和党人对独立人士更具吸引力.《经济学人》尤其欣赏他对自由贸易的支持,和他面对美国在伊拉克的失败局面是,仍然展现出来的那种坚定.最重要的是,他常常表现出一定程度的政治勇气,而这正是奥巴马所缺乏的.这至少说明有可能,如果成为总统,麦凯恩能够推动两党合作通过一些看起来非常民主党的议题.

But if he is to do the astonishing and win, against the odds and despite the fact that Democratic voters are more fired up than the disconsolate Republicans, Mr McCain still has to surmount some sizeable obstacles. One problem is something that he, like Mr Obama, can do nothing about: his age. At 72, he would be the oldest president ever inaugurated, apart from Ronald Reagan in his second term. But voters can at least be reassured by the cracking pace the candidate has set on the campaign trail. His choice of vice-president, expected on August 29th, will be crucial too, playing a bigger part in the voters’ ultimate decision than Mr Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his running-mate on the eve of his own convention. Another obstacle is Mr McCain’s legendarily volcanic temper, which the candidate himself admits to: a serious flaw in a man vying to be commander-in-chief. Still, plenty of other politicians share this trait-Bill Clinton was another serial erupter-and it can at least be said that Mr McCain has kept himself entirely under control during the campaign.
但是如果麦凯恩想要挑战可能,在当前这种民主党人比共和党人更加有激情的情况下令人惊讶地获得大选的胜利,他就必须解决几个大问题.第一个问题就是他和奥巴马都无法改变的现实:他的年龄.72岁,他可能成为美国历史上宣誓就职的最年长的总统(罗纳德里根的第二任期除外).但是鉴于他快节奏的竞选活动,选民应该会感到放心.他的副总统人选(预计在8月29日公布),非常关键,会对选民的最终决定起到重要作用.而奥巴马在代表大会前夕选择乔拜登作为副手,就没有这么重要.另外一个问题是麦凯恩那传奇的火爆脾气,他本人也承认这对一个想要成为三军统帅的人来说是个严重的缺点.当然,好多政客都有这个毛病-比尔克林顿就爆发过好多次-至少到目前为止在竞选过程中麦凯恩脾气控制的很好.

A third obstacle is that many Americans see him as a warmonger, a man who would be happy to bomb Iran if that is the only way to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, who is more than ready to confront Russia, and who supported toppling Saddam Hussein before George Bush was elected and New York and Washington were attacked. This fear is surely overdone: even though Mr McCain is presumably more minded than Mr Obama to attack Iran, neither the joint chiefs of staff nor most of his advisers think that is a good idea. But it is not a completely unreasonable worry. Mr McCain needs to find ways of correcting this perception, rather than making jokes about bombing.
第三个问题是许多美国人认为他是个好战者,一个倾向于轰炸伊朗的人(如果这是阻止它得到核武器的唯一办法的话),一个更愿意对抗俄罗斯的人,一个早在布什当选和纽约华盛顿被袭击之前就支持颠覆萨达姆政权的人.这一点无疑是过虑了:虽然麦凯恩比奥巴马更倾向于攻击伊朗,但他的那些幕僚和顾问都认为这不是个好主意.但这点忧虑并不是完全没有道理的.麦凯恩应该想办法纠正民众的这种认知,而不是开些关于轰炸的玩笑.

Another broad concern, too, needs scotching at the Republican convention and during the election campaign that will follow it. In his desire to get elected, Mr McCain has been prepared to abandon some of the core beliefs that made him so attractive. This is not so much true of foreign policy (Mr McCain has long been a hawk, since the successful NATO campaigns in Bosnia and Kosovo). But even here, he used to talk much more about multilateralism than he does now. On the campaign trail, Mr McCain has tended to stress the more hawkish side of his nature, for instance by promoting his idea for a “league of democracies” that risks being needlessly divisive.
另一个广受关注的问题也应该在共和党代表大会和随后的竞选活动中得到解决.为了当选,麦凯恩准备放弃一些曾经让他大受欢迎的核心理念.虽然在外交政策上情况并不完全如此(自从北约在波斯尼亚和科索沃采取行动以来,麦凯恩长久以来一直是鹰派),但他也比以前更多地谈到多边主义.在竞选活动当中,麦凯恩总倾向于强调自己强硬的一面,比如说他倡导非常容易引起分歧的”民主联盟”,而这完全是没有必要的.

Too polite to the right
过分右倾

But it is on domestic policy that Mr McCain has tacked to the right more disquietingly. Doubtless he feels he needs to shore up his support among the conservatives who mistrust him. But the result is that he could easily alienate the independent supporters who are his great strength. Mr Obama will sensibly hope to woo them away.
但在国内事务上,麦凯恩开始大张旗鼓的右倾.毫无疑问他需要巩固那些原本就不怎么相信他的保守人士对他的支持.但他很可能因此失去独立人士,而这些人原来是他强有力的支持者.后者很可能会转向奥巴马.

Mr McCain used to be a passionate believer in limited government and sound public finances; a man with some distaste for conservative Republicanism and its obsession with reproductive matters. On the stump, though, he has offered big tax cuts for business and the rich that he is unable to pay for, and he is much more polite to the religious right, whom he once called “agents of intolerance”. He has engaged in pretty naked populism, too, for instance in calling for a “gas-tax holiday”. If this is all just a gimmick to keep his party’s right wing happy, it may disappear again. But that is quite a gamble to take.
麦凯恩曾经是小政府和合理财政的积极信徒,不喜欢保守的共和主义,也不喜欢他们对堕胎这类问题的痴迷.但是现在,他宣称要为商业界和富人减税;对那些他原先称之为”不容异端”的宗教右派人士更加礼貌.他现在已经开始赤裸裸地趋从大众,比如提倡在夏日假期免征汽油税.如果这些只是为了吸引党内右派的一些小把戏, 那么它们迟早会消失.但他的立场将来会怎样现在很难预测.

Two months remain before the election, more than enough time for Mr McCain to allay some of these worries. He needs to spend less time reassuring evangelicals that he agrees with them about abortion and gay marriage, and more time having another look at his tax plans. The old John McCain attacked Mr Bush for his tax cuts, which he said were unaffordable. The new John McCain not only wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, but wants to add to them by virtually eliminating estate tax (something that would benefit a tiny number of very rich families, like his own). He also proposes to slash corporation tax. People on middle incomes would see little benefit. Independent analysts agree that Mr McCain’s plans would increase an already huge deficit.
离大选只有两个月了,麦凯恩有足够的时间来消除这些疑问.他应该少花些时间说他同意福音派就堕胎与同性恋婚姻的观点,借以安抚后者.而应该把更多的时间花在他在减税政策上.老麦凯恩曾经攻击布什的减税政策,说它无法承受.新麦凯恩不仅想维持布什的减税政策,还想在原先的基础上降低遗产税(对于向他这样的大富之家非常有利).他还建议削减公司税.中产阶级从中得不到一点好处.独立分析人士认为麦凯恩的计划会更一步加大政府赤字.

Hawkish foreign policy, irresponsible tax cuts, more talk about religion and abortion: all this sounds too much like Bush Three, the label the Democrats are trying to hang around the Republican’s neck. We preferred McCain One.
强硬的外交政策,不负责任的减税计划,大量讨论宗教和堕胎问题,这些听起来像是民主党想挂在共和党脖子上的标签-布什三世.我们更喜欢麦凯恩一世这个称号.

译者：xsj191   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13679&pid=85427&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid85427