Cuba
古巴
Big brother’s shadow
活在哥哥的阴影下
Jul 31st 2008 | HAVANA
From The Economist print edition
Raúl Castro preaches patience
劳尔·卡斯特罗”教导”古巴人民要有耐心
HE TOOK over as Cuba’s acting president two years ago, and was officially confirmed in the job in February. But in some ways Raúl Castro must still govern in the shadow of his older, and ailing, brother, Fidel. If any Cubans had forgotten this, they were reminded as he took to the podium in Santiago, Cuba’s second city, on July 26th to deliver the annual speech that marks the anniversary of the official start of the country’s revolution. Raúl, a short man, was dwarfed by a vast image of Fidel, clenching his fist in salute.
两年前，劳尔·卡斯特罗作为临时总统接管古巴政权，今年二月被正式任命为古巴国国务委员会主席。尽管菲德尔·卡斯特罗年老病重，但是从一定程度上讲，劳尔·卡斯特罗的统治仍将受其哥哥的影响。如果古巴人忘记这个，那么劳尔7月26日在古巴第二大城市圣地亚哥的登台演说则会提醒他们,那是每年为了纪念古巴的”全国起义日”。个子不高的劳尔和哥哥高大的形象相比显得很矮小，但在集会中他紧握拳头，行礼致敬。
In the past few months, Raúl has introduced a series of small but significant changes. He has dropped some of the petty restrictions that irritate Cubans. If they can afford it, they are now free to buy DVD players, stay in tourist hotels and use mobile phones. More significantly, private farmers can buy their own supplies and equipment, and cultivate more of the vast tracts of idle state-owned land. Even the egalitarian dream under which heart surgeons were paid barely twice as much as street cleaners is being ended, with the introduction of performance-related pay.
在过去的几个月中，劳尔引入了一系列细小但却意义重大的改革。他抛弃了那些激怒古巴人民的小的限制。比如，现在如果有钱，他们就可以自由购买DVD播放机，住旅游酒店，使用移动电话。更重要的是，私营农场主可以购买属于自己的补给和机械设备，耕作那些政府所有的广阔但却荒废的土地。由于绩效工资的引入，那种心脏外科医生工资仅仅是马路清洁工两倍的平均主义正在被终结。
These steps signal that consumerism is no longer officially frowned upon, and that Raúl Castro recognises that private initiative is essential to reduce his country’s dependence on imports and eventually to allow Cubans’ derisory wages to rise. The mini-reforms have been popular, and Cubans expect more. Officials have hinted that the right to buy cars, to travel, and even to buy and sell property is being considered behind the scenes. There are signs, too, that they are discussing a bigger role for private enterprise beyond farming.
这些步骤表明政府已经不再反对拜金主义，并且劳尔已经认识到发挥个体积极性对于古巴减少对进口的依赖和最终允许提高古巴人少得可怜的工资是必须的。这些局部改革在古巴很受欢迎，并且古巴人民期待更多。政府已经暗示购买汽车、旅游、甚至买卖房产的权利正在内部酝酿考虑中。还有迹象表明，政府正在讨论赋予私营企业在农场外更大的作用。
But Raúl had no such announcements to make in Santiago. Instead, his subdued audience of 10,000 were told in some detail of government investment in roads and in addressing the city’s appalling water shortage. Austerity, not market reform, was the message. “As much as we desire to solve every problem, we cannot spend more than what we have,” Mr Castro said. He cited rising oil prices (though the island receives more than half its oil from Venezuela at a concessional price). The government had already said that rising food prices would cost the country an extra $1 billion this year.
但是，劳尔在圣地亚哥的演说中并没有这样的声明。相反，他对那10,000名受约束的听众透露了一些关于政府投资公路和解决城市水资源严重短缺问题的细节。节俭，而不是改革，才是他传递的信息。”我们有很多希望解决的问题，但是我们不能超过自己的能力”，劳尔·卡斯特罗以上升的油价为例（尽管古巴以优惠价格从委内瑞拉购买超过一半以上的原油）。政府已经表示今年上升的粮食价格将会使古巴额外付出10亿美元。
So has the reformist drive halted having barely started? There are hints of intensifying debate, if not infighting, within the regime. Mr Castro noted that public discussion on raising the retirement age should not be open-ended. “We do not aspire to unanimity, which is usually fictitious,” he said. That contrasts with Fidel’s oft-repeated insistence on “unity”.
难道刚刚开始的改革会被停止？有迹象表明在政府内部关于此问题的讨论，如果算不上激战，至少也是激烈的争论。劳尔表示，公开讨论提高退休年龄不应该仅仅是个开端。”我们不指望全体一致，那通常是虚假的。”他说道。相比菲德尔·卡斯特罗再三强调坚持”一致”。
Some foreign investors are betting that Cuba is heading on an increasingly capitalist route. A European fund which invests in Cuba found its share placing last March 70% oversubscribed. A London-based consortium has announced that it is going ahead with plans to build a 350m euro ($545m) country club and golf resort overlooking the Florida Straits, complete with luxury villas for sale to foreigners.
一些国外投资者打赌古巴正在不断朝资本主义路线前进。去年三月，一家投资古巴的欧洲基金发现其基金被超额70%认购。而另一家总部位于伦敦的财团则宣布将计划投资3.5亿欧元（约合5.45亿美元）修建一个乡村俱乐部和高尔夫度假胜地，它可以远眺佛罗里达海峡，并连同豪华别墅出售给外国人。
But change is likely to remain slow at least until the end of next year, when the Communist Party holds its long-overdue sixth congress. Mr Castro has said that the congress will set the country’s “economic and political directives”. Until then, Cubans will need yet more patience.
但是至少到明年底之前，改革可能仍然会很慢。因为那时古巴共产党将召开已经被推迟很久的第六次代表大会。卡斯特罗先生表示，大会将为国家经济和政治指明方向。在那之前，古巴人民仍然需要更多的耐心。
译者：jyjnl http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13114&extra=page%3D1