[2008.08.02] 韩国银行业：耐心博弈

South Korean banking
韩国银行业

A game of patience
耐心博弈

HSBC’s difficult decision over Korea Exchange Bank
此境两难——汇丰的抉择

MISSING a deadline. Or missing a chance to build a meaningful presence in Asia’s fourth-largest economy. As The Economist went to press that was the choice facing HSBC, whose dogged pursuit of Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) has become a litmus test of South Korean attitudes to foreign investment. HSBC had a deadline of July 31st for regulators to approve its purchase of a 51% stake in KEB from Lone Star Funds, a Dallas-based investment firm, for $6.3 billion. That date came and went. HSBC is set to announce a decision on whether to keep up the chase on August 4th

错过了截止日期，抑或是失去了一次在亚洲第四经济强国闪亮登场的机会？当这期《经济学人》即将出版的时候，作为一家对韩国外换银行雄心勃勃的公司，汇丰银行正面临着一个两难的选择，而这个选择恰恰映射出了这个国家对于外资态度。7月31 日，是韩方高层决定是否同意汇丰从孤星基金（一家位于达拉斯市值63亿美元的投资公司）收购韩国外换银行51%股份的截止日期。但是那一天似乎什么都没有发生。汇丰将在8月4日宣布有关继续跟进与否的决定。

That regulators missed the target-date is no surprise. South Korea’s financial supervisor, the Financial Services Commission, began considering HSBC’s application to acquire KEB only in late July, even though HSBC filed the application more than six months ago.

错过预定的日期其实也在情理之中。作为韩国财政的监督部门，在7月末才开始考虑汇丰有关收购韩外换银行的申请，而这一申请早在6个月之前，汇丰就已经递交。

The regulator’s tardiness stemmed from separate court proceedings investigating whether KEB’s sale to Lone Star in 2003 was illegal, a case that has already stymied several attempts to sell the bank. Prosecutors have appealed against a judgment in June that acquitted Lone Star of charges of share-price manipulation. A final ruling is expected in the autumn. The regulator has said that it cannot approve achange in KEB’s ownership before then.

独立法庭就2003年孤星基金对韩外换银行的收购是否违法进行了调查，调查导致高层迟迟未作决定，同时也是之前这家银行数次出售未果的原因。6月的一项判决洗脱了孤星基金操纵股价的罪名，但是检举者接着提起了上诉。最终裁决要等到秋季。韩方高层表示，在那之前，韩外换银行的所有权将不会变更。

HSBC faces a difficult choice. The country is overbanked on some measures and loan growth is slowing. The purchase price looks inflated to some, and there may be better uses of the bank’s capital. But HSBC is also committed to expanding its presence in emerging markets, and KEB, South Korea’s sixth-largest bank, does the job. It has strong ties to small- and medium-sized companies, as well as thriving trade finance and foreign-exchange businesses. Its network of 340 domestic branches would further bolster HSBC’s currently thin presence in the country.

汇丰所面临的是一个艰难的选择。由于某些政策面因素，这个国家的存款已经过量，并且贷款增长速度也正在放缓。而且收购价看起来有些受到通货膨胀的影响，也许银行的资本应该流到更合适的地方。但是汇丰同样专注于提升在新兴市场中的知名度。而韩外换银行，作为韩国第六大银行，恰恰可以很好地充当这一载体。首先，这家银行和众多中小型企业联系紧密，并且还拥有日益兴盛的金融贸易和外汇业务。它包括340家下属子公司的国内网络将进一步扩大汇丰目前在这个国家极为有限的知名度。

The government arguably has even more to lose. President Lee Myung-bak has been at pains to present an amicable face to foreign business since his election. Mr Lee is acutely aware that KEB and Lone Star have become bywords for his country’s alleged hostility to foreign investors. The fact that the regulator had started to review the application at all was seen as a favourable sign. The authorities in Seoul seem confident that HSBC will not pull out. If they are wrong, Mr Lee’s charm offensive is in trouble。

仔细推敲起来，韩政府好像损失更大。自从上任以来，李明博总统对外商费尽心机地装出一副友好面孔。李敏锐地感觉到韩外换银行和孤星基金正成为一个证明他的国家对外国投资者怀有敌意的话柄。高层们重新开始全面审核这项申请的事实可以被看做是一个示好的信号。首尔的当权者相信汇丰不会就此离开。但是，如果他们错了，李这种魅力攻势就不好办了

译者：topsun    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13163&extra=page%3D1