Zimbabwe
津巴布韦
Only talk tough
只能强硬谈判
Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Morgan Tsvangirai is right to talk to Robert Mugabe-about the dictator’s exit
茨万吉拉伊就让穆加贝这位独裁者下课一事进行谈判无可厚非
IT STICKS in the gullet of the large majority of Zimbabwe’s people yearning to see the back of Robert Mugabe that the man who should have displaced him four months ago by virtue of the ballot box has now been persuaded to engage in talks with him, seemingly more as supplicant than rightful successor. But Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader who won the first round of the presidential election in March but was savagely intimidated into abandoning the second round at the end of June, is right to agree to talks with the usurper. The alternative, if Mr Tsvangirai were to dig his toes in and refuse to parley until the incumbent simply bowed out, would be more bloodshed and misery for the aggrieved majority and a still more ferocious clinging to power by Mr Mugabe and his clique. By agreeing to talk, Mr Tsvangirai is at least offering Mr Mugabe a gracious if necessarily gradual exit. And if Mr Mugabe fails to negotiate in good faith, Mr Tsvangirai may be forced to walk away, as Zimbabwe falls ever more deeply into lawlessness, poverty and despair. So he must at least try (see article).
四个月前在津巴布韦大选中获胜、本应取代穆加贝的茨万吉拉伊正被人说服与穆加贝谈判。看样子，这位候选人与其说是合法继任者不如说是祈求者，这是让大部分渴望穆加贝下台的津巴布韦人民所无法忍受的。三月反对党党魁茨万吉拉伊在第一轮总统大选中获胜，但遭到严重恐吓使其放弃六月底的第二轮选举，因此他与篡位者进行谈判是无可厚非的。但是如果茨万吉拉伊固执己见，只有穆加贝下台才与其和谈的话，津巴布韦会发生更多的流血事件，这对于步履维艰的广大人民来讲更是雪上加霜，穆加贝和其派系更不会交权。如果同意谈判，茨万吉拉伊至少可以让穆加贝有风度的淡出政治舞台。如果穆加贝不是真心诚意谈判，那么茨万吉拉伊只能被迫放弃，否则津巴布韦会更加动荡不安、民不聊生。所以无论如何，他都要试一试（见文）。
Mr Mugabe will, of course, seek to bamboozle Mr Tsvangirai, a brave man who in the past has not been the cleverest of negotiators when tussling either with Mr Mugabe’s canny villains or with his own disputatious colleagues in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Mr Mugabe, abetted by South Africa’s bafflingly complaisant president, Thabo Mbeki, will try to engineer a government of national unity, with his own people in the driving seat, while co-opting and confusing as many of Mr Tsvangirai’s party as possible. Mr Mugabe’s team take as its model Kenya, where, in an election late last year, the incumbent president almost certainly lost at the polls but managed, after weeks of bloodshed, to stay in power by giving the apparent winner the post of prime minister and a bunch of other less powerful ministries.
当然，穆加贝会蒙蔽茨万吉拉伊。后者很勇敢，但民主改革运动时，无论是与穆加贝精明的团伙或是他自己巧舌雌黄的同事斗智斗勇时，他都不是最睿智的谈判高手。在姆贝基这位逆来顺受的有点令人不解的南非总统的怂恿下，穆加贝会试图策划建立由他的亲信担任要职的国家团结政府，同时强行拉拢和迷惑更多茨万吉拉伊的人。穆加贝派别也想步肯尼亚之后尘。在肯尼亚去年的选举中，民意调查显示，现任总统几乎必败无疑，但经过几周的流血事件之后，他让本可以成为总统的不二人选担任总理，并任命了一些没什么实权的部长，这样才保住了他的总统宝座。
Mr Tsvangirai will be right to resist such a compromise. Instead, he must insist on a strictly transitional arrangement, with ministries allotted in keeping with the results of the parliamentary poll, which even Mr Mugabe’s election officials agree was won by Mr Tsvangirai’s party. A clutch of other key conditions must also be met before the talks can seriously get under way. For a start, the state-sponsored violence, in which more than 100 of Mr Tsvangirai’s people have been murdered and thousands beaten and tortured, must stop; thousands more must be freed from prison; and scores of bogus charges against newly elected members of parliament, MDC officials, and the leader of an MDC splinter party must be dropped. A further host of conditions, repeatedly laid down but wilfully ignored in the run-up to elections by the southern African Development Community, an influential regional group of countries, must be met. Among many other things, the press should be freed. Foreign reporters, including from the BBC, should be let back in. Just as important, foreign aid organisations, banned by Mr Mugabe during the election campaign, should also again be able freely and directly to disburse help. Most crucially, a transitional administration should prepare for a fresh election, monitored by the UN, the EU and the African Union, within a year or so of taking office.
茨万吉拉伊拒绝这样的妥协也是情理之中。但是，他必须坚持严格的过渡安排，职位的分配要与民意调查结果相符，甚至连穆加贝的选举官员也同意反对党赢了。在正式启动谈判前必须要满足一些主要条件：首先，必须停止国家策划的造成100多名反动党人、数千人被打和受虐待的暴力事件；必须要再释放几千名反对党人；必须撤销针对议会新当选议员、MDC官员和MDC小派别领导人的莫须有罪名。同时必须要满足南部非洲发展共同体这一有影响力的国家区域组织大选之前被束之高阁但却故意忽略的一系列条件。最重要的是，国家不能控制媒体，应该允许包括BBC在内的国外记者进入采访。同样重要的是，大选时由穆加贝禁止的国外援助组织也要能不受限的提供直接帮助。最为关键的是，要建立一个过渡政府，为新一轮的大选作准备，过渡政府上任一年期内要受到联合国、欧盟和非盟的监督。
All too starry-eyed?
太不切实际？
Why should Mr Mugabe even consider meeting this array of conditions, when he has so blatantly flouted or rejected them in the past? The answer is that behind the defiance he appears to be under greater pressure than ever before. His economy is reaching a new level of disaster, with inflation now running at a rate of millions per cent a year. The latest harvest has been dismal, bread may soon run out and famine is a real threat. African governments, though many are still pusillanimous, are turning against him. Mr Mbeki still waffles and wobbles, but opinion in his ruling African National Congress is hardening against Mr Mugabe. Just as promisingly, the UN and the African Union are now formally engaged in the negotiations too. The world’s financial institutions are poised to take remedial action, if a decent settlement takes shape. Once Mr Mugabe is locked into proper talks, it may no longer be so easy for him to have his way. And if he cheats and filibusters, Mr Tsvangirai should simply walk out.
既然穆加贝过去已经公然无视或是拒绝答应这些条件，那为什么他现在要考虑是否满足这些条件呢？原因在于，虽然他公然违抗，但他似乎承受着比以往更大的压力：国家经济情况恶化，年通货膨胀率达到百分之数百万；最近的收成不佳，面包也许会很快断挡，饥馑一触即发；许多怯弱胆小的非洲政府也与他作对；姆贝基虽然振振有词、犹豫不决，但是他的执政党非洲国家国会对对穆加贝的态度越来越强硬。联合国和非盟也如约正式加入谈判。如果可以妥善解决，世界金融组织正准备采取补救行动。一旦穆加贝加入正规的谈判，那他再也不可能那么容易随心所欲；但如果他舞弊并从中作梗，那么茨万吉拉伊只能退出。
译者：yyjoy8404 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12916&extra=page%3D1