[2008.07.26] 巨无霸指数：挤在中间

The Big Mac Index
巨无霸指数

Sandwiched
挤在中间

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Burgernomics says currencies are very dear in Europe but very cheap in Asia
汉堡包经济学说明现在欧洲的货币很贵，但是亚洲的货币却非常便宜

EVER since the credit storms first broke last August, the prices of stocks, bonds, gold and other investment assets have been blown this way and that. Currencies have been pushed around too. Did this buffeting bring them any closer to their underlying fair value? Not according to the Big Mac Index, our lighthearted guide to exchange rates. Many currencies look more out of whack than in July 2007, when we last compared burger prices.

此从去年八月信贷风暴爆发以来，股票、债券、黄金以及其它投资资产的价格都受到这样或那样的冲击，而且各国货币也同样被推来推去，任意摆布。这样的价格波动会使的它们接近其基本的公平的价值吗？根据我们轻便的汇率向导工具–巨无霸指数来看，事情并不是这样的。许多货币看起来比我们上次比较汉堡包价格的2007年七月的时候更不正常。

The Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says that exchange rates should move to make the price of a basket of goods the same in each country. Our basket contains just a single item, a Big Mac hamburger, but one that is sold around the world. The exchange rate that leaves a Big Mac costing the same in dollars everywhere is our fair-value yardstick.

巨无霸指数是建立在购买力平价理论的基础上。购买力平价理论认为，汇率应该使得一揽子商品的价格在各个国家都相同。我们篮子里的商品只有一样–麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡包，但是这一样却是在全世界都销售的商品。使世界各地巨无霸的售价都统一折算成相同美元数的汇率是我们的公平价值尺度。

Only a handful of currencies are close to their Big Mac PPP. Of the seven currencies that make up the Federal Reserve’s major-currency index, only one (the Australian dollar) is within 10% of its fair value. Most of the rest look expensive. The euro is overvalued by a massive 50%. The British pound, Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are also trading well above their burger benchmark. All are more overvalued against the dollar than a year ago. Only the Japanese yen, undervalued by 27%, could be considered a snip.

只有一小部分货币接近它们的巨无霸购买力平价。在构成美联储主要货币指数的七种货币中，只有一个（澳大利亚元）是在其10％的公平价值范围内的。其它大多数都看起来非常贵。欧元被高估50％。英镑，瑞典克朗，瑞士法郎和加拿大元的汇率同样也是高于其汉堡包基准。所有这些货币对美元汇率都比一年前要高。只有日元被低估27％，可以认为是个例外。

The dollar still buys a lot of burger in the rest of Asia too. The Singapore dollar is undervalued by 18% and the South Korean won by 12%. The currencies of less well-off Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, look even cheaper. China’s currency is among the most undervalued, though a bit less so than a year ago.

在亚洲其它地区美元同样也是能买很多汉堡包的。新加坡元被低估18％，而韩国则是12％。在一些经济不太繁荣的亚洲国家，比如印尼、马来西亚和泰国，它们的货币则更便宜些。中国的货币是被最严重低估的货币之一，虽然比一年前略好些。

The angrier type of China-basher might conclude that the yuan should revalue so that it is much closer to its burger standard. But care needs to be taken when drawing hard conclusions from fast-food prices. PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run. Prices vary with local costs, such as rents and wages, which are lower in poor countries, as well as with the price of ingredients that trade across borders. For this reason, PPP is a more reliable comparison for the currencies of economies with similar levels of income.

更为愤怒的中国抨击者可能会作出结论说，人民币必须重新估值以与其汉堡包标准接近。但是从快餐价格得出强硬结论的同时需要谨慎些。购买力平价方法显示出货币从长远来看的价格。价格由于当地成本的不同而不同，例如租金和工资，这在贫穷的国家会很低，跨境交易的配料价格也同样如此。由于这样的原因，购买力平价方法在比较有相近收入水平的经济体时更为可靠。

For all these caveats, more sophisticated analyses come to broadly similar conclusions to our own. John Lipsky, number two at the IMF, said this week that the euro is above the fund’s medium-term valuation benchmark. China’s currency is “substantially undervalued” in the IMF’s view. The dollar is sandwiched in between. The big drop in the greenback’s value since 2002 has left it “close to its medium-term equilibrium level,” said Mr Lipsky.

尽管有这些附加的解释，但是更加精密的分析结果和我们的结果大体相同。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的二号人物John Lipsky本周说，欧元高于国际货币基金组织的中期的估价基准。而且以国际货币基金组织的观点来看，中国货币被”严重低估”。美元介于其间。 Lipsky说，从2002年以来的美元大贬值使其”接近它的中期均衡水平”。

If that judgment is right, the squalls stirred up by the credit crises have moved at least one currency-the world’s reserve money-closer to fair value. Curiously the crunch has not shaken faith in two currencies favoured by yield-hungry investors: the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. These two stand out as emerging-market currencies that trade well above their Big Mac PPPs. Both countries have high interest rates. Turkey’s central bank recently raised its benchmark rate to 16.75%; Brazil’s pushed its key rate up to 13% on July 23rd. These rates offer juicy returns for those willing to bear the risks. Those searching for a value meal should look elsewhere.

如果上述判断是对的话，信贷危机导致的风暴至少使得一种货币–世界储备货币–接近其公平价值。令人奇怪的是信贷紧缩没有打击到饥渴投资者对于两种货币的信心：巴西的雷亚尔和土耳其的里拉。这两种货币在新兴市场的货币中表现非常出色，高于其巨无霸购买力平价。这两个国家都有着高利率。土耳其央行最近提高其基准利率到16.75％，巴西则在7月23日将其关键利率提高到13％。这样的利率水平给那些愿意承受风险的人提供了丰厚回报。那么寻找一份超值的饭菜则要到别处了。