Buttonwood专栏

Bucking the trend
逆流而上

Apr 30th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The end of the carry trade brings a new era of complexity to currency markets
套息交易的消逝为货币市场开启了新的复杂性时代

FROM 2002 to 2007, foreign-exchange trading was pretty simple. Buy the currencies with the highest yields and sell those with the lowest. This “carry trade” created high returns with low volatility.

从2002至2007年，外汇交易可谓相当简单。买入最高收益的货币，卖出最低收益的。这样的“套息交易”创造了低波动性的高回报。

In theory the trade made little sense. High-yielding currencies should be compensating investors for the risk of depreciation, and low yields have been a characteristic of strong currencies like the Swiss franc. But who cared about the theory when, for a long time, the carry trade produced bumper returns?

而理论上，这种交易是讲不通的。高收益的货币本应就该为其贬值风险补偿投资者，而低收益一直以来都是例如瑞士法郎等强势货币的一大特点。但在套息交易长久以来都带来丰厚回报的情况下，谁又在乎理论怎么说呢？

Then came the credit crunch and some carry trades broke down spectacularly. The high yields on offer from Iceland did not compensate investors for the collapse of the krona. East European debtors are still coming to terms with the downside of one carry trade, borrowing in low-yielding currencies like the euro or Swiss franc. It saved them interest costs in the short term but it also created a nasty mismatch: their wages and revenues were in one currency and their liabilities were in another.

然后，就来了这场信贷危机，一些套息交易轰然崩盘。虽然冰岛货币克朗的高收益还削价出售给了投资者，但最终因为其崩溃而无法给后者带来的损失。东欧的债务人也仍然继续忍受着借入如欧元或瑞士法郎等低收益货币进行套息交易的弊病。短期之内这样做会帮助他们省去利息成本，但却创造了一个危险的错配：他们的薪水和收入是由一种货币计算，而债务却是由另一种计算。

Now markets have reached a stage, in the biggest economies at least, where the carry trade looks hard to pull off.
Thanks to the desperate efforts of central banks to revive their economies, most currencies yield virtually nothing. There is not enough of a spread between the dollar, euro and yen to reward speculators.

现在，至少在大的经济体中，市场已经到达了一个难以将套息交易剥离出去的阶段。不过还要感谢各个央行为复苏各自的经济而作出的不顾一切的努力。现在大多数货币实际上没有任何收益可得。因此投机者在美元、欧元和日元之间就无法发现足够的差价来获利了。

Although that is true in nominal terms, David Woo of Barclays Capital argues that there is still a difference in real yields. America is now officially in deflation so real yields on Treasury bonds are around 3%. That compares well with real yields in Japan, Canada and Britain and it may be attracting capital flows into the dollar.

但Barclays资本的David Woo认为，虽然在名义收益上确实如此，但是实际收益还是有不同的。美国官方已经正式宣布进入通货紧缩时期，所以美国国债的实际收益大约为3%。与日本、加拿大和英国等国货币的实际收益相比，美元对资本流入可能颇具吸引力。

But another possibility is that the focus has moved away from yields to other factors. This would not be the first time. In the late 1990s America’s superior growth prospects were perceived to be good for the dollar, as the country attracted portfolio flows into technology stocks. At other times, trade patterns have dominated, with deficit countries perceived to be vulnerable to currency declines.

但是另外一个可能是，焦点从收益移到了其他因素上。这并不是第一次。上世纪90年代末期，正值美国吸引组合资金进入其科技板之时，美国良好的经济增长前景被认为对美元利好。其他几次则是因为认为赤字国家易受货币贬值影响的交易模式做了主导因素。

What could be the basis for the new regime? Adam Cole of the Royal Bank of Canada reckons the answer is the credibility of economic policy. In America the authorities have shown themselves willing to try everything to boost the economy, including lower interest rates, bank rescues, fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing (expanding the money supply). In contrast, the European authorities have been more cautious. That is why the dollar has been strong against the euro recently.

而新体制的基础又会是什么呢？加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)的Adam Cole猜测答案可能会是经济政策的信誉度。美国当局已经表明了为了振奋经济愿意尝试一切方法的意愿，包括降息、为银行纾困、财政刺激和定量宽松(扩大货币供给)等政策。而相形之下，欧洲当局则比较谨慎。这也是为什么美元兑欧元走强的原因。

This is odd. Running budget deficits and printing money tend to weaken a currency. David Bloom of HSBC argues that the currencies of those countries that have adopted quantitative easing will underperform those that have not.

而这又怪了。保持预算赤字并执行印钱政策应该是会削弱该国货币。汇丰的David Bloom认为采取了定量宽松政策的国家的货币表现上将落后于没有采取相同政策的。

But it may be a sign of the severity of the crisis that currency traders are willing to ignore their misgivings about such unorthodox tactics. As Ajay Kapur of Mirae Asset Management puts it: “In a debt deflation, the currency of the least responsible country benefits.”

但这个信号也可能是预示着在经济危机造成的严酷形势下，货币交易员已经愿意抛开对非正统政策的担忧。就像Mirae资本管理公司的Ajay Kapur说的那样：“在一个充斥了债务的通货紧缩时期，责任最小的国家的货币将会受益。”

Another possibility is that currencies are being driven by risk appetite. That seems to be true in developing countries: emerging-market currencies have rallied alongside equity markets in recent weeks. And it makes a certain amount of sense. If rising stockmarkets are a sign that the world economy is stabilising, then export-driven emerging markets should be the first to benefit.

另一个可能是货币是由风险偏好所驱动的。这在发展中国家似乎确实如此：最近几个星期里新兴市场国家的货币和股市双双上扬。这样现象的发生还是非常有道理的。如果股市上涨是世界经济正在稳定下来的信号，那么最先受益的就应该是说受出口驱动的新兴市场经济。

When investors turn risk-averse, they seem to favour the dollar, as was illustrated yet again on April 27th when the outbreak of swine flu caused the greenback to gain ground. A further reason why the dollar may be benefiting during stockmarket sell-offs is because American investors, who piled money into foreign shares in recent years, are bringing their money back home.

当投资者转为风险规避时，他们似乎会偏爱美元，就像在4月27日再次引用的猪流感爆发使得美元上涨的事实。而更进一层来说，美元从全球股市大跌中之所以受益，是因为最近几年中将大量资金投放在外国股市上的美国投资者已经在撤出，并将资金带回本国。

And the dollar may also be gaining a following from those who focus on trade deficits as an important agent in foreign-exchange markets. For years, the size of the American current-account deficit was seen as bearish for the buck. But the global slowdown, and in particular the falling oil price, have caused the deficit to shrink dramatically.

而有些人认为贸易逆差是外汇市场上的一个重要动因，这也可能会使美元收益。多年来，美国经常账户逆差之规模让投资者看跌美元。但现在全球经济减缓，特别是油价大跌，都相当可观的缩减了逆差规模。

The new world of foreign exchange may thus be much more complicated than the old. But for the moment most factors seem to be favouring the dollar. Ironically, the greatest danger for the greenback might result from the success of the efforts of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to revive the global economy. Not only might investors start to chase high yields again, but they might also start to worry about how the bill for all those unorthodox policies is going to be paid.

因此外汇的新世界可能会比旧的更加复杂。但是就现在来看，大多数的因素都利好于美元。而讽刺的又是，对美元最大的危险则来自于美国财政部和美联储振兴全球经济的成功。到时投资者可能不但会再次开始追逐高收益，而且还会开始担心美国如何为那些非正统的政策买单。

《经济学人》（The Economist ( http://www.economist.com ))
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