[2008.05.31] Divided rule 科索沃前景

Kosovo’s future
科索沃前景

Divided rule
多方角力

May 29th 2008 | PRISTINA
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日/普里什蒂那
《经济学人》印刷版

The European Union runs into roadblocks in its plans for Kosovo
欧盟解决科索沃问题的方案陷入泥潭



WHEN the Austro-Hungarian empire declared war on Serbia in July 1914, few could have imagined that the result would be the demise not only of the Habsburg empire, but also of the Russian and Ottoman ones. Nobody believes that Serbia’s challenge to the European Union over Kosovo will be anything like as dramatic; most Serbs want to join the EU, not destroy it. Yet 100 days after Kosovo declared independence, Serbia has done a lot better than anybody expected in thwarting the EU’s plans for it.
1914年7月,奥匈帝国向塞尔维亚宣战。当时没有人能料想到这不但宣告了哈布斯堡王朝的终结,也导致了沙俄帝国和奥斯曼土耳其帝国的覆 灭。同样,没人能料想到塞尔维亚人在科索沃问题上会给欧盟造成如此麻烦;多数塞尔维亚人希望加入欧盟,而非抵制它。科索沃独立已百天,塞尔维亚却使得欧盟 的解决方案面临严峻考验,这出乎各方意料。

Serbia still regards Kosovo as a province, but the ethnic Albanians, who constitute over 90% of its 2m people, declared its independence in February. So far 41 countries have recognised Kosovo, including America and 20 of the EU’s 27 members. But five of these are microstates like Nauru and the Marshall Islands. And such big hitters as Brazil, China, India and Russia have not recognised the new country. Nor have Spain, Egypt or even most Muslim countries.
今 年二月,占科境内人口90%的阿尔巴尼亚族宣布了科索沃的独立,然而塞尔维亚仍视其为它的一个省。目前,已有41个国家承认科主权,其中包括美国及欧盟 27个成员国中的20个。但这41个中有5个都是瑙鲁、马绍尔群岛这样的小国。一些主要大国,如巴西、中国、印度、俄罗斯尚未承认科独立。西班牙。埃及甚 至大多数穆斯林国家也都未承认。

Since the end of the war in 1999, Kosovo has come under the jurisdiction of the United Nations. Legally the last word in its government accordingly lies with the head of the UN mission in Pristina. When Kosovo declared its independence, the EU authorised the establishment of a big new police and justice mission named EULEX. With the Americans and others, it also set up the office of the international civilian representative (ICR), investing him with sweeping powers.
1999年科索沃战争之后,科即处于联合国托管之下。在法理上,联合国驻普里什蒂那使团在科境内拥有最高决策 权。科索沃独立之后,欧盟授权成立了一个名为EULEX的庞大的警察及司法机构。同时,欧盟纠集美国等国成立了国际民事代表处(ICR),由欧盟驻科索沃 特别代表,荷兰籍的Pieter Feith任主席。上述两个举动赋予欧盟在科境内的实际控制权。

On June 15th Kosovo’s new constitution is due to come into force. It foresees no role at all for the UN. But legal and technical problems mean that the EULEX mission has been postponed. As for the ICR, whose (Dutch) head, Pieter Feith, is also the EU’s special representative in Kosovo, one UN official scoffs, “He and his team are here as tourists. What are they doing? They can’t take over the role they were assigned, as we are still here.”
6月15日,科新宪法即将生效。根据该宪法,联合国今后在科境内将失去权力。但法理及技术上的原因导致EULEX的成立 推迟。至于国际民事代表处,一位联合国官员对之颇为不屑:“Pieter Feith和他的代表处完全就像旅游者。只要有联合国的存在,他们就无法获得实际权力。”

Since independence the Belgrade government has consolidated its grip on Serbian areas of Kosovo, including almost all of the region north of Mitrovica. It even held local elections, condemned as illegal by the UN, the EU and the ICR. EULEX and the ICR will be unable to operate in these areas. De facto, Kosovo is thus divided not only into Serb and ethnic-Albanian areas, but also into places where the UN will keep operating and the ethnic-Albanian areas where EULEX and the ICR will probably take over. For the EU, says one diplomat, “It is a face-saving operation now. Their plan has been derailed.”
科独立之后,塞尔维亚政府也加强了对科境内塞族聚居区的控制,其中包括米特洛维查 以北的大部地区。塞族控制区内甚至举行了选举,不过联合国、欧盟及国际民事代表处宣布该选举无效。EULEX 与 ICR在塞族控制区内无法实际运作。因此实际上,科索沃不但被分成了塞族控制区及阿族控制区,今后可能也将分成联合国托管区和EULEX 与 ICR管理区。至于欧盟,有外交界人士表示:“EULEX 和 ICR的成立实际上只是挽回颜面的举动。欧盟的计划已经落空。”

As the June 15th deadline nears, meeting after meeting is taking place to try to resolve the impasse. The UN’s future role is now utterly unclear because, as the joke has it, everyone is “waiting for Ban”. Under pressure from all sides, the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, has done little beyond prohibiting the transfer of cars, buildings and equipment to EULEX and the ICR. The Russians recently warned him that any notion that he might try to resolve the problem without the approval of the UN Security Council (and thus of Russia) was “out of the question”.
6月15日的期限日近。为了解决目前的僵局,各种会议不断召开。联合国未来在科索沃的地位完全未定。原因?正如坊间 的笑话所说的,大家都在等着“潘”头(盼头)。面临各方压力,联合国秘书长潘基文所做的只有拒绝向EULEX和ICR移交车辆、建筑和设备。俄罗斯最近警 告说,潘基文任何解决方案都必须获得安理会首肯(意味着也必须获得俄罗斯同意),否则都是“不可接受的”。

Attempts are now being made to square the circle by seeing if EULEX could somehow come under the UN’s legal authority, but so far no progress towards a deal has been made. What is becoming distressingly obvious to Kosovo’s Albanians is that, despite declaring independence, their future is still tied to Serbia’s. Keen to gain more recognition, they are making little fuss. But Mr Feith says “they need to be given some comfort that their interests are being taken care of.” If they don’t get it, he sees trouble ahead.
另一个可能方案是将EULEX部分置于联合国框架之内,各方正朝此努力,但目前尚无成功的迹象。对于科索沃阿族人来 说,他们悲哀的前景也日益明晰:虽然新国家已宣告独立,但它的未来却仍和塞尔维亚的前景绑在一起。为了尽早获得更多国际支持,科索沃阿族人仍在约束自己的 不满。但正如Feith所说:“外界应安抚科索沃阿族人,以使他们确认自身利益未被外界忽视”。如果没有这种安抚,Feith认为,科索沃问题的解决将面 临更大麻烦。

译者: houyhnhnm  http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11795&extra=page%3D1

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