[2009.2.12] The middle class in emerging markets

The middle class in emerging markets
新兴市场中的中产阶级
Two billion more bourgeois
20亿新生资产阶级

Feb 12th 2009
From The Economist print edition
原载：《经济学家》印刷版，2009年2月12日

The rise of a new middle class has changed the world. What if they sink back into poverty?
新一代中产阶级的兴起改变了世界。如果他们家道中落，又会如何？

PEOPLE love to mock the middle class. Its narrow-mindedness, complacency and conformism are the mother lode of material for sitcom writers and novelists. But Marx thought “the bourgeoisie…has played a most revolutionary part” in history. And although The Economist rarely sees eye to eye with the father of communism, on this Marx was right.

中产阶级总是人们打趣的对象。他们目光短浅、自命不凡、因循守旧的形象，总是为喜剧作家和小说家们提供着无穷无尽的笑料。然而马克思认为，在历史上“中产阶级扮演着革命性的角色”。虽然《经济学家》在许多观点上与这位共产主义之父有着不同意见，在这点上我们认为马克思是正确的。

During the past 15 years a new middle class has sprung up in emerging markets, producing a silent revolution in human affairs—a revolution of wealth-creation and new aspirations. The change has been silent because its beneficiaries have gone about transforming countries unobtrusively while enjoying the fruits of success. But that success has been a product of growth. As growth collapses, the way the new middle class reacts to the thwarting of its expectations could change history in a direction that is still impossible to foresee.

过去的十五年间，在新兴市场中，涌现出新一批中产阶级。他们的迅速成长悄然间改变了世界的面貌。这些变动是悄悄发生的，其受益者在享受成功果实的同时，也在以微妙的方式改变着他们的国家。他们的成功是本国经济快速增长的结果，而当经济的增长停滞时，新一代中产阶级对未来的期许将受到阻碍。他们对此的反应，将会将历史的发展引向无法预料的方向。

The new middle consists of people with about a third of their income left for discretionary spending after providing basic food and shelter. They are neither rich, inheriting enough to escape the struggle for existence, nor poor, living from hand to mouth, or season to season. One of their most important characteristics is variety: middle-class people vary hugely by background, profession and income. As our special report in this week’s issue argues, their numbers do not grow gently, shadowing economic growth and rising 2%, or 5%, or 10% a year. At some point, they surge. That happened in China about ten years ago. It is happening in India now. In emerging markets as a whole, it has propelled the middle class from a third of the developing world’s population in 1990 to over half today. The developing world is no longer simply poor.

新一代中产阶级的标准是，每月除了满足吃住等基本生活要求外，有1/3的收入可供自行支配。这些人既不算富裕，也不算贫穷。他们并没有继承足够的财产，让自己不再为生存而挣扎；也不必每天为糊口或是季节变化而苦恼。这批人的一个重要特点是多样性：中产阶级的家庭出身、行业和收入都不尽相同。正如本期特别报道中的文章所提到的，中产阶级的人数增长并不稳定，根据经济增长的速度，每年增加的人数可能是2%到5%，也可能达到10%；有些时候人数也许还会下降，这种情况十年前在中国出现过，而现在印度也有这种现象。1990年，新兴市场中中产阶级的总人数大约占1/3，而到今天，其人数比例已经提升到了一半以上。贫穷一词已经不足以概括发展中国家的情况。

As people emerge into the middle class, they do not merely create a new market. They think and behave differently. They are more open-minded, more concerned about their children’s future, more influenced by abstract values than traditional mores. In the words of David Riesman, an American sociologist, their minds work like radar, taking in signals from near and far, not like a gyroscope, pivoting on a point. Ideologically they lean towards free markets and democracy, which tend to be better than other systems at balancing out varied and conflicting interests. A poll we commissioned for our special report on the middle class in the developing world finds that such people are happier, more optimistic and more supportive of democracy than are the poor.

随着越来越多的人加入中产阶级的行列，其意义并不仅仅是开创新的市场。这些人的思想与行动的方式都会发生改变。他们的思维更加开放，对子女的未来更为关注，更容易接受抽象的价值观，而非传统的道德观念。按照美国社会学家大卫•里斯曼（David Riesman）的说法，他们的思维方式好比雷达，不断地接受或远或近的信号，而不像陀螺仪那样，恒定地指向一个方向。在意识形态上他们更倾向于接受自由市场和民主制度，在不同的利益群体相互冲突时，在这种制度下各方面的利益更容易相互制衡。为了撰写特别报道，我们曾经在发展中国家的中产阶级中进行过调查，结果显示相比穷困人口，这些人的情绪更为快乐，心态更为积极，思想观念上更支持民主制度。

These attitudes transform countries and economies. The middle class is more likely to invest in new products and new technologies than the rich, who tend to defend their existing assets. It is better able than the poor to leap barriers to entry into business and can therefore set up companies big enough to generate jobs. With its aspirations and capacity for delayed gratification, the middle class is more likely to invest in education and other sources of human capital, which are vital to prosperity. For years, policymakers have tied economic success to the rich (“trickle-down economics”) and to the poor (“inclusive growth”). But it is the middle class that is the real motor of economic growth.

他们的态度会改变国家与经济的现状。与谨小慎微地保护自己现有财产的富人相比，中产阶级更喜欢对新产品与新技术进行投资；与穷人相比，他们又更容易克服障碍自己创业，进而创办公司，提供新的就业机会。他们满怀抱负，也不急于即时享乐。在这种心态下，他们更愿意在教育及其他人力资本的提升上投资，而这些产业正是经济繁荣的保证。多年以来，政策制定者们都将经济的成功与富裕阶级（“滴入性经济”）或是贫穷阶级（“包容式增长”）联系在一起，然而中产阶级才是经济发展的真正动力。

Now the middle class everywhere is under a great threat. Its members have flourished in places and countries that have opened up to the world economy—the eastern seaboard of China, southern India, metropolitan Brazil. They are products of globalisation, and as globalisation goes into reverse they may well be hit harder than the rich or poor. They work in export industries, so their jobs are unsafe. They have started to borrow, so are hurt by the credit crunch. They have houses and shares, so their wealth is diminished by falling asset prices.

然而现在，中产阶级正在遭受巨大的威胁。中产阶级发源的国家和地区已经完全向世界经济体系敞开了大门，例如中国东海岸，印度南部以及巴西的都市地区。这些中产阶级是经济全球化的产物，而与上层社会和底层人口相比，全球经济的衰退对他们的打击更为沉重。涉及出口产业的工作岗位岌岌可危；信贷经济的困局也损害到了刚刚开始贷款的中产阶级的利益。由于资产价值的下降，他们的房产和股票价值也随之缩水。

What will they do when the music stops?
乐声戛然而止时，他们又将何去何从？

Those at the bottom of the ladder do not have far to fall. But what happens if you have clambered up a few rungs, joined the new middle class and now face the prospect of slipping back into poverty? History suggests middle-class people can behave in radically different ways. The rising middle class of 19th-century Britain agitated peacefully for the vote; in Latin America in the 1990s the same sorts of people backed democracy. Yet the middle class also supported fascist governments in Europe in the 1930s and initially backed military juntas in Latin America in the 1980s.

社会阶梯底层上的人们没有太多的下跌空间。然而如果你已经往上爬了几格，加入了中产阶级，如今却面临着跌落回贫困人口的前景，又会作何感想？历史证明，中产阶级的成员们会走向不同的极端。19世纪的英国，新兴的资产阶级以和平的方式要求投票权；在上世纪90年代的拉丁美洲，中产阶级同样站在了民主阵线上。然而上世纪30年代，欧洲的中产阶级也曾经支持过法西斯主义的兴起；80年代拉美地区的军事政府也得到了中产阶级的支持。

Nobody can be sure what direction today’s new bourgeoisie of some 2.5 billion people will take if its aspirations are dashed. If the downturn lasts only a year or two the attitudes of such people may survive the pain of retrenchment. But a prolonged crash might well undo much of the progress the developing world has lately made towards democracy and political stability. It is hard to imagine the stakes being higher.

而今，当总人口接近25亿的资产阶级面临着灰暗的前景时，没有人可以准确地预测将发生什么事情。如果经济的低迷只持续一两年时间，也许只需要稍稍节约一下开支，就可以度过难关。然而若是经济长期处于崩溃状态，发展中国家近年来为民主和政治稳定所做出的努力将会付之东流，或许会走回头路。涉及的利害关系越大，前景就越无法预料。

 

译者： Lennon.W  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=17134&extra=page%3D1