[2009-02-07] Hey, big spender 嗨，败家子

Australia’s economic stimulus
澳洲经济刺激方案

Hey, big spender
嗨，败家子

Feb 5th 2009 | SYDNEY
From The Economist print edition

Kevin Rudd shops for a recovery
陆克文重金买复苏

HAVING inherited a booming economy when he led Australia’s Labor Party to power in late 2007, Kevin Rudd predicted optimistically last October that his country would avoid a recession during the global downturn. Now he is sounding more worried, and acting more defensively. This week he announced a stimulus package worth A$42 billion ($27 billion), one of the biggest in the country’s history. The government, he declared, would “move heaven and earth” to keep the economy growing. Barely a corner of Australian life will be untouched by the spending spree.

2007年底，当陆克文领导澳洲工党接手澳洲政权时，澳洲经济还是一片繁荣景象，因此他在去年十月乐观地预测，澳洲将（有幸）避免这次全球性的经济衰退。现如今，他的发言听来更令人忧虑，他的做法也更为侧重于防守。本周，他宣布了一项耗资420亿澳元（约270亿美元）的刺激（经济）方案。这是澳州历史上耗资金额最大的一项此类方案。他宣称，政府将“竭尽全力地”保持经济的增长。这项耗资巨大的经济刺激方案几乎触及了澳人生活的方方面面。

Yet there is no guarantee it will achieve its aim. The immediate trigger for the stimulus was a Treasury report that the global recession had slashed A$115 billion from forecast revenue up to 2012. While six of Australia’s top ten export markets are already in recession, the chief impact has come from the slowdown in one that is not: China, its biggest trading partner, and the main driver of a minerals boom that has fed fat company-tax revenues. Such booms have worked magic to keep “the lucky country” out of trouble before. But not now. Lindsay Tanner, the finance minister, cites figures showing how much Australia had come to depend on such revenues, and the shock when they abruptly fade away: at the latest boom’s peak, company taxes had grown to a quarter of federal revenue, from just 9% in the mid-1980s.

然而，该项经济刺激方案能否达到其既定的目标还是个未知数。导致该经济刺激方案出台的最直接诱因是财政部的一份报告，该报告称，因受全球经济衰退影响，可预见至2012年，（澳洲）经济收入将共计减少1150亿澳元。虽然澳洲十大出口市场中有六大出口市场都遭受经济衰退的影响，但对澳洲经济最致命的一击还是来自于中国市场（并非六大受影响市场之一）的萎缩。中国是澳洲最大的贸易伙伴，也是澳洲税收大户 – 澳洲矿业繁荣昌盛的主要原动力。正是矿业的繁荣神奇地使这“幸运国度”在全球经济衰退的最初没有受到影响。然而现在情况却不同了。财长林赛•唐纳（Lindsay Tanner）引用的数据显示出澳洲（经济）在多大程度上依赖着这种（译者注：指矿业）收入，以及矿业收入的骤减对澳洲经济的创伤有多大：在最近一次矿业鼎盛时期，企业税占联邦税收总收入的比例，从八十年代的9%，增长为25%。

Growth forecasts for 2008-09 have now slid from 2.75% in last May’s budget to 1%, and to just 0.75% for next year. Mr Tanner concedes such figures are a bit “anaemic”, but says the chances of staying out of recession are still “reasonable”. Some economists are less optimistic. The test will be whether Mr Rudd’s stimulus has the right targets. About a third will go in cash handouts of almost A$1,000 each to encourage low- and middle-income workers, farmers and students to spend. A similar stimulus of A$10.4 billion late last year seems to have worked: after two months of weak demand, it helped push retail spending in December up by 3.8%.

（政府对）08-09年度的经济增长预测从去年五月份预算的2.75%，下降为1%，且预测明年的增长仅为0.75%。唐纳先生坦言，这样的数据的确有点儿“令人沮丧”，但同时也表示，（澳洲经济）还是“相当”有可能置身于经济危机之外。而其他的经济学家则没有这么乐观。陆克文的经济刺激方案所面临的考验是该方案是否针对了正确的人群。为鼓励中低收入的上班族、农民和学生消费，政府将每人发放近１千澳元的现金，这约占刺激方案总额的1/3。去年年底，一项耗资１０４亿澳元的同类刺激方案似乎颇有成效：在消费低迷了两个月后，该方案助零售业１２月份的销售额增长了３．８％。

But the bulk of Mr Rudd’s stimulus, almost A$30 billion, will go on infrastructure: new school buildings, road repairs and house insulation. And more is on the way. A body Mr Rudd appointed under Sir Rod Eddington, a businessman, is due to report soon on much bigger demands for public cash, such as for railways, ports and energy grids. Already, the revenue slump and stimulus spending have ended more than a decade of budget surpluses; the latest estimates project combined deficits of A$118 billion over the next four years.

然而，该方案的很大一部分，约３００亿澳元，将流向基础设施建设：建新校舍、维修公路、为房屋安装隔热层。而且其他更多的用途还在计划中。陆克文所指定某隶属于Sir Rod Eddington（商人）的机构将于近期上报更多需要公共资金的项目，如铁路、港口和电站。目前，税收减少，以及刺激（经济）方案的支出已耗尽十年（累计）的政府预算盈余。最新的预测显示，新出台的方案将令澳洲在未来四年内背上１１８０亿澳元的负债。

On January 31st Mr Rudd prepared the ideological ground for this shift with a much-discussed article in the Monthly, a magazine. He blamed the global crisis on neoliberalism, or “free-market fundamentalism—and excessive greed”. Social democracy, he wrote, must now “prevent liberal capitalism from cannibalising itself”. This was also about claiming the political high ground. Mr Rudd accused the Liberal Party, the main opposition party, which ruled for 11 years before the crisis, of being Australia’s neoliberals. Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal leader, wants tax cuts, not public spending, to boost the economy, and opposes the stimulus package.

1月31日，陆克文在《月刊》杂志上发表了一片备受争议的文章，为推行这一刺激方案作了思想铺垫。他将此次全球金融危机归罪于新自由主义（neoliberalism），也即“自由市场原教主 （free-market fundamentalism），以及贪婪无度。”他写道，社会民主主义（Social democracy）现在必须“阻止自由资本主义蚕食它自己”。这一做法同时也是为占领政治高地。自由党是工党的最大的反对党，在经济危机之前执政澳洲长达11年。陆克文指责自由党正是澳洲的新自由主义者。自由党领袖马尔科姆•特恩布尔（Malcolm Turnbull）反对该刺激方案，希望采取减税而非公用事业开支来推动经济。

The central bank cut interest rates by a percentage point to a cash rate of 3.25% on the day Mr Rudd announced his stimulus, the fifth cut since September. Glenn Stevens, the bank’s governor, says the monetary and fiscal changes will help to “cushion” the economy. If Australia nonetheless goes into recession, Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull will keep trading charges on who is to blame: neoliberals or big spenders.

在陆克文宣布其刺激方案的当天，央行宣布降低基准利率100个基点，降为3.25%，这是自（去年）九月以来的第五次降息。央行行长格林•斯蒂芬（Glenn Stevens）表示，货币和财政（政策）的变化将有助于“缓和”经济（将遭受的影响）。如果澳洲最终难逃衰退的厄运，那特恩布尔就可以和陆克文换个位置来追究谁才是罪魁祸首：新自由主义，还是败家子。

译者：icetea   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16955&extra=page%3D1