[2009.01.15] Rebels without a pause “行”在江湖，身不由己

The ECB
欧洲中央银行

Rebels without a pause
“行”在江湖，身不由己

Jan 15th 2009
From Economist.com

A shrinking economy forces the ECB to cut interest rates again, to 2%
经济衰退迫使欧洲央行再次降息（至2%）

Reuters

WHEN policymakers around the world are slashing interest rates, it is hard for a central bank to stand out from the crowd. The European Central Bank (ECB) tried to rebel but failed: on Thursday January 15th it cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 2%, having hinted at a pause only a month ago.

值全球决策之人均大幅砍息之时，单个央行实难独自清”高”。欧洲中央银行（ECB）曾试图反抗，结果却无功而返–本月15日周二，在暗示将暂停本轮扩张仅一月之后，它再次降息半个百分点至2%。

The bank’s rate-setters had hoped that they could take a break this month in order to assess their past handiwork-the cumulative reductions that took the benchmark rate from 4.25% in early October to 2.5% by early December. No such luck: this is an equal-opportunities economic crisis, and the euro area is in it just as deep as America, Britain and the rest.

该行决策者曾冀望本月可以稍事休整，以便对前期举措有所估量–自10月初始（4.25%），其基准利率在两月之内累计下降了1.75%。可惜美梦难圆：本次危机对大家可谓一视同仁，欧元区经济所陷泥淖之深恰如英美及其他地区。

The economy’s vital signs have looked worryingly faint since the ECB’s rate-setting council last met. Industrial production fell by 1.6% in November, following similarly large drops in the previous two months. Around the world, people are buying fewer big-ticket items such as new cars and home appliances, and firms are delaying investment. That hurts the euro area’s largest economies-Germany, France and Italy-with their manufacturing bent. Industrial sentiment across the euro area slumped in December to its lowest level since comparable records began in 1985.

自ECB前次议息会议以来，其下辖经济已日见颓唐。工业产出于11月下滑1.6%，与其前两月如出一辙。环顾全球，大件商品（例如汽车与家用电器）销售正日渐下滑，而商业投资亦屡遭延迟。结果欧元区最大经济体（德国、法国、意大利）因其制造业偏重而备受其害。上月工业信心指数已跌至其1985年诞生以来的历史低位，单一货币区内可谓遍野哀鸿。

Germany is the most export-dependent economy and the bellwether of industrial Europe. It has suffered an alarming collapse in its exports and factory orders. Spending at home is under pressure too. The euro area’s consumers have high savings and low debt by rich-world standards but they are nervous all the same. Unemployment is rising, even in Germany and France, where the jobs markets had been more solid. The run of bad news suggests that the euro-area economy is in deep recession. Julian Callow of Barclays Capital reckons that it shrank by as much as America’s in the fourth quarter.

身为欧洲工业各国之领头羊，德国对出口依赖最为严重。出口及工业订单的急剧下挫已令其备受其苦，如今国内支出亦是压力重重。相对富国标准，欧元区消费者储蓄丰厚且债务微薄，然而却依旧顾虑频频。即便在就业市场已有所改善的德法两国，失业率也正在上升。如此恶讯频仍意味着欧元区已然深陷衰退。巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）的Julian Callow认为，该区经济第四季度下滑程度将不亚于美国。

Consumers are pulling back fastest in Spain and Ireland. Unemployment in both countries is rocketing and tax revenues are wilting after housing busts. In the past week Standard and Poor’s, a credit-rating agency, said that the triple-A stamp given to the public debt of Ireland and Spain may be downgraded. On Wednesday the agency cut Greece’s credit rating. It has also put Portugal’s double-A rating under review.

西班牙与爱尔兰的消费者畏缩最盛。彼处，失业正大幅飙升，而税入则在房市泡沫破灭之后萎蔫不振。上周，信评机构标准普尔（Standard and Poor’s）声称，颁与西、爱两国公债的最高评级或将有所下调。本周三该机构砍低了希腊的信评等级；葡萄牙的双A评级亦入再审之列。

Lower credit ratings will constrain the ability of governments to support their economies. Within the euro zone Germany has the greatest means-and highest standing in financial markets-to use fiscal policy to boost spending. It belatedly beefed up its fiscal-stimulus package this week in response to the worsening economic conditions.

信用评级下降将对政府扶持经济之能力有所牵制。德国是欧元区内最富资本以财政扩张来促进支出的国家–其金融市场亦最富声望–却迟至本周才为其财政刺激方案添汤加料，以应对不断恶化的经济局势。

If Germany’s government now appears rattled by the unfolding economic drama, the ECB is still trying to look unfazed. At the press conference following the interest-rate decision the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said the “next important rendezvous” is the ECB’s meeting in March, when it will consider a fresh assessment of the economic outlook from the bank’s forecasters. He hinted that a meeting scheduled for February 5th would not be one for making decisions on cutting rates. But events might intervene again: “we are never pre-committed”, said Mr Trichet.

虽然德国政府因经济急转直下而显得方寸大乱，ECB却依旧故作岿然。于降息决定后的新闻发布会上，行长特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet ) 说道，”下次重要会议”定于本年3月，其时，将考虑该行预测专家对经济前景的最新评价。这无异于暗示，定于下月5日的会议将无关降息决定。只是计划没有变化快，正如特老所言：”我们从不做事先承诺。

The ECB’s chief is shrewd enough not to rule anything out. But his comments at the press conference suggest that the bank is extremely reluctant to follow the Federal Reserve down to zero interest rates. “It is our intention not to be in a liquidity trap”, he said. When asked what he meant by that, Mr Trichet said that when interest rates fall to “very, very low” levels it is hard to raise them again. But inflation, at 1.6% in the euro area, is already below the ECB’s target ceiling of 2% and, with slack in the economy increasing, is likely to fall much further. Mr Callow at Barclays Capital thinks that the ECB will cut interest rates by another half a percentage point in March to prevent inflation from falling too far. The planned rebellion in February will quickly be quashed.

万事均留余地，足显特老之精明。然而其新闻发布会上的评论却暗示，该行极不情愿跟随美联储的零利率政策。他说，”流动性陷阱并非我辈所愿。”当被问及其意指如何时，特先生回答道，当利率降到”非常、非常低”的水平时，再想提息就难了。然而欧元区1.6%的通胀率已经低于ECB2%的目标顶值。随着经济衰退不断加剧，它很可能继续大幅下行。巴克莱资本的Callow先生认为，欧洲央行将于三月再次降息半个百分点以防通胀过分下落。该行于2月的”对抗”计划或将很快取消。

译者：弓长贝恩           http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16604&extra=page%3D1