[2009.01.08] Back into the abyss? 再陷深渊？

Ethiopia and Somalia
埃塞俄比亚和索马里

Back into the abyss?
再陷深渊？

Jan 8th 2009 | NAIROBI
From The Economist print edition

Scary possibilities for the future of Africa’s most utterly failed state
非洲最失败的国家前途堪忧

 EXACTLY two years after it invaded Somalia with American encouragement, Ethiopia has begun to withdraw its remaining 3,000 troops. It will keep its spy network in place and will patrol its borders aggressively against incursions by jihadists. But it will no longer take responsibility for keeping order in what is probably the most violent, hungry and smashed-up country in the world.
整整两年前；埃塞俄比亚在美国教唆下开始侵略索马里；两年后的今天，剩下的3,000名埃军已经开始撤离。虽然埃塞俄比亚会在索马里保留间谍网络，继续对其边境侵略性地侦查以防止圣战组织入侵；但是维持索马里这个堪称世界上暴力、饥饿现象最严重，最混乱的国家秩序，就不再是埃塞俄比亚的职责了。

Ethiopia is trying to portray its withdrawal as a success. Maybe so, if judged by the narrow criteria of securing Ethiopia from a full-scale attack by Somali Islamists and irredentists determined to “recover” the eastern bits of Ethiopia inhabited by ethnic Somalis and then to draw them into a Greater Somalia caliphate. But the biggest question about the withdrawal concerns Somalia’s own future.
埃塞俄比亚试图将撤军描绘成一场成功的军事行动。保护自身不受索马里伊斯兰主义分子和一心想要”收复”埃塞俄比亚东部索马里族民居住区的民族统一党员的全面袭击，还把他们驱逐到了大索马里的哈里发统治区：按照这一标准，他们可能是成功的。但是这次撤军的最大疑问在于，索马里的未来何去何从。

Optimists say the resignation on December 29th of Somalia’s president, Abdullahi Yusuf, is a hopeful sign that a UN-brokered peace deal between the feeble transitional government and moderate Islamists may be taking hold. Mr Yusuf favoured warlordism over reconciliation, goes this argument, so the chances of peace should improve markedly with his departure. There is talk of electing a new president within weeks.
乐观人士认为，12月29日索马里总统阿卜杜拉希.尤素福辞职，说明联合国在势力较弱的过渡政府和伊斯兰温和派之间的斡旋正初显成效。他们认为，尤素福总统倾向军阀统治，排斥和解，所以他的离职将会使和平的几率大大提高。有消息称，索马里将在未来几周内推选一名新总统。

But the pessimists have the stronger case. A mission of 1,600 Ugandan and 1,300 Burundian peacekeepers still in Mogadishu under an African Union (AU) mandate will also pull out within weeks unless they get extra support. That seems unlikely. Nigeria, Malawi and Ghana have shown no sign of honouring their pledges to send troops, nor is it clear that any other AU country has the logistical back-up the Ugandans and Burundians are asking for. American and European governments, whose navies are patrolling Somalia’s waters against pirates, together with Chinese, Indian and other ships, have ruled out military intervention inside Somalia itself. So Ethiopia’s withdrawal may simply leave a power vacuum, to be filled in short order by Islamist militias that are now even more dangerous than those crushed by the original invasion at the end of 2006.
但是悲观人士似乎更占上风。在摩加迪沙，非盟手下由1600名乌干达人和1300名布鲁迪人组成的维和部队若是不能得到另外的支援，也会在几周内撤军。可得到支援又几乎毫无可能。尼日利亚、马拉维和加纳虽然信誓旦旦说要派遣军队，但是看起来丝毫没有履行诺言的意思；其他的非盟国家是否具备乌干达和布鲁迪所要求的后勤支援尚不明晰。虽然美欧中印等国的海军还在索马里的水域巡逻，打击猖獗的海盗，可是美国和欧盟已经言明不会在索马里领域内部进行军事干预。所以，这个时候埃塞俄比亚撤军只会造成一个权力真空的局面，使伊斯兰民兵有机会短期内夺权。2006年末，这些民兵受到入侵的埃塞俄比亚军队镇压；时过境迁，现在的他们更加危险。

Mr Yusuf’s gunmen may return north to their more or less autonomous homeland in Puntland, perhaps to profit from piracy. Various armed groups would then fight for control of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, and of central Somalia. These include a patchwork of militias loyal to rival clan elders and warlords, along with moderate Islamists, radical Islamists and private security groups hired by businessmen.
尤素福的枪手们可能会打道回府，北归多少还算自治的彭特兰，操海盗业谋生。但是这时来自各方的武装组织就会掀起战争，对索马里首都摩加迪沙和中部地区进行争夺。加入战争的可能包括对敌军族长和军阀忠心耿耿的民兵，伊斯兰温和派和激进分子，还有商人们雇佣的私人保障组织。

The radical Islamists known as the Shabab (Youth) are the best-organised and most ruthless. If the moderate Islamists find more in common with the Shabab than with the warlords and what is left of the transitional government, the fighting could be as bad as at any time since Somalia imploded in 1992. The outcome will depend partly on who has most cash to keep paying the gunmen. That is why all sides will battle for ports, markets, slaughterhouses, banana plantations-and anything else that earns a bit of money.
激进伊斯兰分子沙巴柏（阿拉伯语里为”年轻的”），组织有序，残暴无情。如果伊斯兰温和派成员跟他们达到共识，而不是同军阀、过渡政府余存力量合作，战乱将会进一步升级，直逼1992年索马里内战以来新高。结果究竟如何，还要看谁有钱来雇佣枪手。港口、集市、屠宰场和香蕉种植园这些地方虽然收益甚微，各种力量还是会恶战相争，原因就在于此。

译者：rhineyuan        http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16584&page=1#pid107841