[2009.01.03] Demonstrably durable 欧元坚挺，毋庸置疑

The euro at ten
欧元诞生十周年

Demonstrably durable
欧元坚挺，毋庸置疑[1]

Dec 30th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Europe’s single currency has been a haven in recent financial storms. But as capital markets become more discriminating, it no longer affords shelter from reform

在最近的金融风暴中，欧洲单一货币一直扮演着避风港的角色。但随着资本市场的识别力不断加强，纵是躲在这一避难所内，改革也在所难免。

Alamy

PAUL VOLCKER once likened global capital markets to a vast sea that cannot escape the occasional big storm. Mr Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve who is now an adviser to Barack Obama, counselled that when the waters got choppy, it was far safer to be on a big ship. A stately liner can sail serenely through turmoil that would capsize even the sturdiest small vessel.

保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker）曾经将全球资本市场比作浩瀚海洋，偶尔的风暴袭击实属难免，这位美联储的前主席，巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）的现任顾问曾提出忠告说，当波涛汹涌的时候，呆在一艘大船上要安全许多。一艘宏伟邮轮可以安然驶过动荡，而小船，即便是最坚固的，也不堪一击。

Mr Volcker was speaking a few months after the collapse of the Thai baht set off the Asian financial crisis, and a few months before the launch of the euro, which celebrates its tenth anniversary on January 1st. A decade on, the euro has demonstrated the virtue of size in rough seas. As small economies were tossed by the financial storms that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, the currencies with global clout, such as the euro and the dollar, were the most stable.

沃克尔先生发表以上言论的时间，正好处在泰铢急剧贬值所引发的亚洲金融危机与欧元正式启动之间–后者将在今年1月1日庆祝诞辰十周年。在这十年当中，欧元已经证明了其规模在巨浪汹涌的大海上的优越性。9月雷曼兄弟破产，金融风暴由此爆发，小型经济体们颠簸不止，而欧元、美元等具有国际影响力的货币相对则最为稳定。

In its first ten years the euro has come through several tests already. Claims that the currency zone would fall apart have proved groundless. Nor is the euro a soft currency, as some had feared. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) common monetary policy has drawn on the traditions of its best constituent central bank, the Bundesbank-and has produced an even better record of low inflation.

第一个十年，欧元经历了重重考验。有关欧元区会瓦解的说法被证明是空穴来风，有些人担心欧元会沦为软货币（soft currency），现在看来也是毫无根据的。欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank，ECB）的共同货币政策继承了其最优秀的成员国央行–德意志联邦银行（Bundesbank）的衣钵，而且创造了更佳的低通胀纪录。

From the standpoint of economic stability, the euro has been a success. If there is cause for disappointment it is that sound money and the price transparency afforded by a common currency have not fostered faster economic growth. The hope when the euro was launched was that countries stripped of the licence to cheapen their currencies would be forced to compete directly, and that competition would beget more flexible markets and higher productivity. Yet there has been little improvement in the euro area’s underlying growth rate in the past ten years. Income per person has remained at around 70% of that in America.

从经济稳定性的角度来说，欧元是成功的。如果有让人失望的地方，那就是健全通货（sound money）与共同货币带来的价格透明度（price transparency）未能促进经济较快地增长。发行欧元的本意是期望可以迫使不再有权贬值本国货币的各成员国直接进行竞争，而这种竞争又会带来更加灵活的市场和更高的生产力。然而在过去十年，欧元区的潜在增长率却几乎没有提高，人均收入也始终停留在美国人均收入的70%左右。

Perhaps the euro has proved too safe a haven. Partly sheltered from the whims of fickle foreign capital, member states have been under less pressure to shape up. If that is true, the blame may not lie entirely with the single currency. The run-up to currency union and most of the euro’s first decade coincided with the Great Moderation, a period of economic stability and low inflation-and hence low interest rates-in the rich world. But investors who once underpriced risk are now charging heavily to bear it, which will affect companies and governments inside the euro’s embrace as well as beyond it. As budgetary laxity and weak growth become costlier, reforms are more likely.

或许，作为一个避风港，欧元显得过于安全了。在欧元的庇护下，成员国在一定程度上避开了外国资本的反复无常，结果减少了改进的压力。如果事实如此，问题也不应全部归咎于单一货币。货币联盟的预热期与欧元最初十年的大部分时间都处在大稳健时期（Great Moderation）–其间，即一个世界经济稳定，通胀低下进而利率水平同样较低的时期。但是那些曾经低估风险的投资者现在正为承担风险而猛抬要价，其影响将波及欧元区内外的企业和政府。当预算松弛和低增长的代价越来越沉重，改革的可能性也将随之上升。

The crisis has another legacy: despite the weakness of the dollar in recent weeks, the euro may struggle to challenge the greenback as the world’s main reserve currency. Lately, it is true, the euro has gained in value against the dollar-partly because the ECB seems reluctant to follow the Federal Reserve’s path to zero interest rates. But the dollar held up better in the eye of the financial storms in October, when investors were most fearful. The American currency still has important advantages over the European newcomer.

此次危机的另一份馈赠在于：尽管美元最近几周走势疲软，但欧元对其作为世界主要储备货币的挑战也许并不轻松。近来，欧元对美元确实有所升值，部分原因在于欧洲中央银行似乎不愿跟随美联储的”零利率”政策。然而，当市场于去年10月陷入本次金融风暴之中心，亦即投资者的恐慌达到顶点的时候，美元却获得了反弹。比起欧洲的后起对手，美元始终占据着一些重要优势。

Safety in numbers
安全过剩

The advantages of euro membership-and the perils to small European countries of being outside-were plain when the crisis was most severe. Last autumn capital drained from currencies that investors saw as risky. That included the paper of countries, such as Iceland, with bloated financial industries, as well as some eastern European states with current-account deficits, heavy public borrowing or (as in Hungary) a dangerous mix of both.

经济危机最严重时期，欧元成员国的优势和欧元区以外的欧洲小国的危险处境对比非常明显。去年秋季，资本从投资者们视为有风险的货币中撤出，包括金融业膨胀的冰岛以及一些有经常项目赤字、高额政府负债或两者兼而有之（如匈牙利）的东欧国家的货币。

Euro-area countries with similar faults have been spared the currency crisis that plagued others. Eurocrats are quick to point out that Ireland’s guarantee of bank deposits and debt would seem threadbare if it still managed its own currency: investors might have taken fright at the scale of the banking sector compared with GDP. Being part of a big club has made a currency run far less likely (though Ireland’s membership of the euro is one reason it became a large financial centre in the first place). Belgium, with its big banks and huge public debt, has benefited from being an insider too. Spain would have struggled to fund its current-account deficit, the world’s second-largest, outside the euro.

这些国家备受货币危机折磨，而犯有类似错误的欧元区成员国则免受其苦。欧盟官员迅速指出如果冰岛仍然维持本国货币，其银行存款和债务担保似将落入俗套–投资者可能会对其银行业占GDP比重感到惊恐。成为庞大俱乐部的一员，大大降低了这种货币挤对的可能性（虽然爱尔兰成为欧元区成员的原因之一是它首先成为了一个重要的金融中心）。拥有庞大的银行业和巨额公共债务的比利时同样因其成员国的身份而受益匪浅。如果不是因为欧元，西班牙将为了替其世界第二大的经常项目赤字融资而痛苦不堪。

At the worst point, investors ran from all but four big global currencies: the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Doubts were even raised (and remain) about the wisdom of holding the British pound and the Swiss franc, which each account for a small share of global foreign-exchange reserves. For some, Britain and Switzerland are Iceland or Ireland writ large, but without Ireland’s lifeboat-its membership of a large and liquid currency pool. Both countries have big banking industries with foreign-currency debts.

在情况最糟的时候，投资者也不曾从四大全球货币–美元、欧元、日元、人民币中撤资。持有英镑和瑞士法郎是否明智一度遭到质疑（目前仍存质疑），这两种货币在全球外汇储备中所占份额甚小。在某种程度上来说，英国和瑞士是放大版的冰岛和爱尔兰，但是却没有爱尔兰的救生艇–作为一个巨大且流动性丰富的货币区的一员。这两个国家都有负有外汇债务的庞大银行业。

Leading figures in the European Commission have not been shy to play up the role of the euro as a haven. The commission’s president, José Manuel Barroso, said on French radio that “some British politicians have already told me: ‘If we had the euro, we would have been better off.'” Mr Barroso also claimed Britain was “closer than ever before” to joining the euro.

欧盟委员会（European Commission）的领袖人物向来不怯于夸大欧元作为避风港的作用。欧委会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐（José Manuel Barroso）曾在法国电台中说道，”有些英国政界人士已经告诉我说：‘如果我们已经加入欧元区，我们现在的境况也会好一点。'”巴罗佐先生同时还称，英国”比以往任何时候都要接近”加入欧元区。

That is an overstatement. There are few signs yet that public or political opinion in Britain has shifted towards signing up to the euro. But the lessons of the crisis have not been lost on many other EU countries that have yet to join. The three Baltic countries have long been keen to adopt the euro, but have fallen foul of the low-inflation criterion for entry. Hungary abandoned its attempt to join when it became clear it would not meet the public-finance criteria for joining, which include a budget deficit below 3% of GDP. It is now said to be redoubling its entry efforts and plans to peg the forint to the euro in preparation. Poland’s chilly attitude towards euro membership began to thaw after a euro10 billion ($12.5 billion) credit line was offered by the ECB to help stabilise the zloty.

这话有些言过其实。对于是否加入欧元区，英国民意和政界尚无转变迹象。但是金融危机的教训使得尚待加入的国家也不敢轻易言弃。波罗的海三国长期以来一直渴望加入欧元区，但是不能达到低通胀率的准入标准。欧元区准入标准之一包括预算赤字低于GDP的3%，在明确自己将不会达到这一标准之后，匈牙利放弃了加入计划。据说目前匈牙利正加倍努力及筹划，准备将匈牙利福林与欧元挂钩。而在ECB为了稳定兹罗提而向波兰提供了100亿欧元（125亿美元）的信贷额度之后，波兰对于加入欧元区的冷淡态度也开始有所升温。

Denmark was forced to raise interest rates in October to keep its currency peg with the euro intact. After two votes against joining the euro, the government is mulling a third referendum. Polls suggest that this time the Danes would vote in favour. Even the sceptical Czechs seem less doubtful about the merits of membership of the currency club.

丹麦被迫于10月提高利率以稳定其货币对欧元汇率。在两次投票反对加入欧元之后，政府正在酝酿第三轮全民公投。民意调查显示这次丹麦人将投赞成票。即使是惯于怀疑的捷克人似乎也减少了对这一货币俱乐部成员身份优越性的怀疑。

With its sound public finances, low inflation and stable exchange rate, Denmark would sail through the euro’s entrance exam. Sweden could make the cut too, if it was minded to. But the rest would be hard pushed to join soon. It is unlikely that the rules for entry will be relaxed. Just as euro outsiders may now see advantages in being part of a global currency, insiders may take a different lesson from the crisis: that a less exclusive euro club, with laxer rules, would dim the currency’s allure.

丹麦稳健的公共财政，低通胀水平和稳定的汇率将轻松通过欧元区”准入考试”。如果瑞典有意加入，它也能达标。其它国家则很难在短期内达到标准。而欧元门槛也不太可能降低。正如现在欧元区外围国家可能看到的优越性，成员国也从危机中学到一课，那就是欧元俱乐部越不排外，规则越宽松，欧元的魅力也就越黯淡。

Haven or trap?
忧喜难断

In fact, some existing members are struggling with the rigours of a currency union. When a country’s wage costs rise too quickly, it can no longer recover lost competitiveness through a lower exchange rate. That is a concern because wages in some euro-area countries look dangerously out of whack. Unit labour costs in the zone rose by 14% between 1999 and 2007, according to a recent article in the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin. But in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, they rose by 10-20 percentage points more (see chart 1). That makes it harder for firms in these countries to compete with rivals in the rest of the euro area.

事实上，一些现有成员国正因为货币联盟的这些苛刻条件而痛苦挣扎。当一国工资成本上涨过快的时候，它已然不能通过令本币贬值来重获失去的竞争力。这点之所以令人担忧，在于欧元区一些国家的工资水平正处于危险的失衡状态。根据《欧洲中央银行月报》的一篇近文，欧元区单位劳动力成本在1999至2007年间上涨了14%。而在希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙以及西班牙，该数据还要多出10到20个百分点（见图1）。其结果是，相对其它成员国的竞争对手，在这些国家的企业的竞争力进一步被削弱。

 

This group is suffering badly in the downturn. Housing busts in Ireland and Spain have crushed domestic demand. Tax receipts that had been swollen by booms in consumer spending and housing have shrivelled. With unemployment rising too, public finances are worsening. Portugal has struggled to dig itself out of the rut it fell into when its convergence boom turned to bust in 2000. Greece, like Portugal and Spain, has a big current-account deficit. Italy has a smaller trade gap but, like Greece, has huge public debt. As the prospects for economic growth fade, investors are starting to demand far higher interest rates for holding their sovereign debt than for the safest German government bonds (see chart 2).

该类国家在这场经济衰退中饱受折磨。地产泡沫在爱尔兰与西班牙的破裂压挤了国内需求。曾经因为消费与楼市繁荣而增长的税收收入也逐渐萎缩。由于失业水平也跟着上升，公共财政可谓每况愈下。经历了一段趋同繁荣之后，葡萄牙的经济在2000年急转直下，为了摆脱困境，他曾经痛苦地挣扎。和伊比利亚半岛上的两”牙”兄弟一样[2]，希腊的经常项目赤字也居高不下。意大利的贸易差额虽然略小，但公共负债却堆积如山–这点也像希腊。随着经济增长前景黯淡，他们的公债利差–相比最安全的德国政府债券–也陡然升高（见图2）。

 

Although all the euro area’s members, including super-competitive Germany, are troubled, recovery is likely to prove most difficult where wage growth has run far ahead of productivity gains. Firms will find it harder to dislodge cheaper imports from their home markets and will struggle to keep up with their euro-area peers abroad. The old remedy of a lower exchange rate is no longer available. For that reason “it is far from self-evident that it is better to be inside the euro than outside it,” says Francesco Caselli, of the London School of Economics. In 1992, the last time Europe lived through such currency-market squalls, both Britain and Italy were forced to devalue their currencies against other EU nations. Neither country regretted it, says Mr Caselli.

尽管欧元区的全部成员–包括极具竞争力的德国–都身处困境，经济复苏最困难的还是那些工资上涨大大超过了生产力扩张。其企业在国内市场与外来便宜货的竞争局势将更加恶劣，同时还得努力跟上欧元区同侪的前进步伐。重拾本币贬值的办法如今已经不可能了。有鉴于此，”那种加入欧元比留在外面好的自信已经彻底消失。”–伦敦经济学院（London School of Economics）的Francesco Caselli如是说。在1992年欧洲所挺过的最近一次汇市风暴中，英镑与意大利里拉双双被迫对其余欧盟国家货币贬值。根据Caselli先生的说法，两国都不曾为此感到遗憾。

Are Italy, Spain and the other countries struggling with high wage costs and low productivity eyeing Britain enviously, as its currency slumps and its relative wage costs fall with it? Or is Britain wishing it were, like Italy, safe inside the euro ark? Britain has been harder hit by the credit crunch: it had a huge housing boom that is turning to bust; it has a large financial sector, which is now shrinking fast; and its households are more indebted than even America’s.

看着英国人大幅贬值英镑，而相对工资成本亦随之而落，挣扎于高劳务成本与低生产率之中的意大利、西班牙等国是否会眼红呢？还是英国梦想着能像意大利那样躲在欧元里避难？信贷紧缩对英国的打击其实更重：其巨大的楼市繁荣正走向衰败；庞大的金融系统正快速萎缩；而英国家庭的债务负担甚至超过了美国。

In other words, Britain is suffering from the very “asymmetric shock” that is so hard to adjust to within a currency union. In these circumstances Britain benefits from being able to cut interest rates and allow its currency to depreciate. The pound had looked dear on some measures anyway. And Britain has not been frozen out of capital markets: its government-bond yields are a bit lower than France’s and much lower than Italy’s.

换句话说，英国所承受的这个极端的”不对称冲击”是如此严重，已无法在一个货币联盟中进行调整。在这样的环境下，保有降低利率并令本币贬值的能力对英国是有利的。不管怎么说，英镑在一定程度上被高估了。并且，英国还没有被资本市场冻结在外–它的公债收益率略低于法国，也远低于意大利。

Italy faces starker choices. A 2006 report from the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank, concluded that Italy could follow three paths. It could continue to muddle through as the euro area’s slowest-growing economy; it could introduce reforms to tackle its poor productivity and high labour costs; or it could leave the euro, default on its euro debts and devalue its currency. Two years on, Simon Tilford, the author of the report, reckons that with deep recession and ballooning budget deficits on the horizon, muddling through is no longer an option. He also thinks Italy’s exit from the euro cannot be ruled out.

意大利面临的选择更加严酷。伦敦智库”欧洲改革中心”（Centre for European Reform）2006年的一份报告认为，意大利有三条路可选：它可以继续作为欧元区增长最乏力的经济体而蒙混度日；也可以借改革解决生产率低下、劳务成本高昂的问题；还可以退出货币联盟，赖掉欧元负债并使其货币贬值。如今两年过去了，该报告的作者Simon Tilford认为，面对初露端倪的深度衰退与膨胀的预算赤字，蒙混度日已不再是选择之一。但他不排除意大利退出欧元的可能性。

However, a break-up is improbable-and less likely than it was before the crisis. Marco Annunziata of UniCredit, an Italian bank, reckons that the lesson being drawn from the travails of Hungary and Iceland is that being outside the euro is costly. Some monetary-policy autonomy would be restored by leaving, but borrowing costs would go up. At a time when markets are clinging to the safest investments, Italy’s high public debt and poor record of macroeconomic management would count heavily against it. The policy debate in Italy has become more pragmatic as the potential losses from being outside the euro loom larger, says Mr Annunziata. The world has changed since Argentina and Russia swiftly regained access to foreign capital after defaulting on debts. Investors are likely to be far less forgiving these days.

然而，分道扬镳是不太可能的–至少比危机发生前的概率要小。意大利联合信贷银行（UniCredit）的Marco Annunziata认为，来自匈牙利与冰岛的惨痛教训告诉我们留在欧元区之外的代价是高昂的。虽然退出可以赢回一些货币政策上的自主权，可借贷成本却会因此而上升。在一个市场执著于投资安全的时刻，意大利高额的政府负债与宏观经济管理上的糟糕纪录将对其融资产生十分不利的影响。他还说，随着退出欧元的潜在损失愈加突出，意大利国内的政策争论也变得更加务实起来。今非昔比，当初阿根廷与俄罗斯虽然出现债务违约，但还是很快地赢回了外国资本，如今的投资者可没有那么仁慈了。

A catalyst for reform
改革催化剂

The more bracing market conditions may renew hopes that the euro will be a catalyst for reform. The record so far is disappointing. Productivity growth has slowed from an already sluggish 1.6% a year before the euro’s launch to 0.8% since. That isn’t a wholly bad sign: perhaps healthy jobs growth temporarily depressed productivity because each new worker was less productive than the average. André Sapir, an economist at Bruegel, a Brussels think-tank, says there is some tentative evidence for this: countries with the worst productivity record, such as Spain and Italy, enjoyed rapid jobs growth.

这样更具促进性的市场条件或将重新唤起欧元作为改良催化剂的希望–尽管至今的纪录令人沮丧。生产率增长已经从欧元启动前本就低迷的1.6%放慢到了今天的0.8%。这并不完全是坏事：也许健康的就业增长暂时拉低了生产率，因为新员工的工作效率往往低于平均水平。来自布鲁塞尔智库Bruegel的经济学家André Sapir说，有些尚不确定的证据表明：像西班牙与意大利这样生产率最低下的国家，曾得益于就业的快速增长。

That said, sluggish productivity also reflects a waning appetite for reform. A report by the European Commission on the euro’s first decade concluded that members became less ambitious after 1999. That may partly reflect “reform fatigue”, following the dramatic efforts made to qualify for the first wave of euro entry.

这表明，低下的生产率也反映出改革热情的逐渐消退。欧盟委员会就欧元十周年发表的报告总结说，自1999年后，成员国已经不再像从前那样充满抱负。这或许在一定程度上反应了在第一批成员国为踏入欧元门槛而付出艰辛努力之后的”改革疲劳”。

The protection the euro offered its members also worked against reform. Joining the euro meant that countries could carry on with old habits for longer. For countries such as Italy with huge public-debt burdens, the reduction in interest costs on joining the euro relieved pressure to trim budgets. Spain’s consumption boom and ballooning current-account deficit continued unchecked because foreign lenders faced less currency risk.

欧元向其成员所提供的保护同样有碍变革。加入欧元意味着这些国家可以继续固守旧习。类似意大利这样公债负担沉重的国家，加入欧元所带来的利率成本的下降，减缓了他们削减预算的压力。西班牙的消费繁荣与膨胀的经常项目赤字得以持续地不受控制，正是因为海外债权人的汇率风险减小了。

Before the credit crisis started to brew, investors were almost as keen to own the public debt of profligate Italy as that of prudent Germany. At one time ten-year Italian government bonds yielded just 16 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point) more than the equivalent German bonds. Life within the euro area is no longer quite so cosy. The spread has risen to 140 basis points and may rise further as concerns about Italy’s fragile public finances and faltering economy increase.

就在信贷危机爆发之前，投资者对挥霍无度的意大利公债的热情甚至不亚于对节俭的德国国债的热衷。十年期意大利国债收益率与同期德国公债利率的息差一度只有16个基点（万分之一点）。然而，这样惬意的生活在欧元区内已经一去不返。该息差已经涨至140个基点。由于对意大利脆弱的公共财政与蹒跚不前的经济的担忧仍在加剧，它还将继续上扬。

Challenging the dollar
单挑美元

The return of the bond-market “vigilantes” will put pressure on budgets, which may in turn spur wider reform. Fiscal laxity tends to fatten the government wage bill, setting a high benchmark for private pay deals that can cripple competitiveness. Scarcer credit may affect the private sector directly too. Recent research by economists at the commission found that incentives for reform are greatest when financial markets are working well. Capital will tend to flow to countries that have made most progress in freeing their economies.

债市”治安员”的归来或将带来对预算的压力，继而促进大范围的改革。财政松弛易于引发公务员薪酬膨胀，导致私人部门支付标准过高，从而挫伤竞争力。而由政府发债所引起的信贷资源的进一步匮乏也会直接危害到私人部门。欧盟委员会的经济学家最近研究发现，金融市场运作良好时，改革的动力也最大–资本倾向于流入那些在解放经济束缚上取得进步最大的国家。

The euro has proved itself a safe place for insiders at times of crisis. But how appealing has the currency been for outsiders? The euro held up far better than currencies backed by smaller, less diversified economies. The euro is attractive because of the currency zone’s size, political stability and sound monetary policy. But in the eye of a storm that had its origins in America, the dollar rallied against the euro.

对其成员而言，欧元已经证明自己可以作为危机时刻的避难所。然而对于非成员，它究竟有多大吸引力呢？比起那些规模较小、多样化程度更低的经济体的货币来说，欧元的状况要好许多。它的吸引力在于整个货币区的规模、政治的稳定以及健全的货币政策。但是，美元竟从这场始于美国的风暴中心卷土重来，开始叫板单一货币。

The dollar’s attractions as a bolthole are partly a benefit of incumbency. The greenback accounts for around two-thirds of global currency reserves, compared with a quarter for the euro. Outside the EU, the bulk of cross-border sales are invoiced and settled in dollars. A third even of euro-area trade is still dollar-based. The greenback still dominates global currency transactions-which is a rough guide to its use as a “vehicle currency” for trade between smaller economies (see table 3).

美元作为避险货币的魅力，在一定程度上得益于它目前的角色。全球储备货币中它约占三分之二，而欧元只有四分之一。在欧盟之外，绝大部分跨境销售都以美元开具发票并结算。甚至在欧元区还有三分之一的贸易用美元进行支付。美元依旧是全球货币交易的主宰，这为较小国家间的贸易使用它作为”交易货币”提供了一个粗略的向导（见表3）。

 

For some observers, the euro cannot challenge the dollar’s hegemony as long as it remains a currency without a state. The euro area cannot rival the liquidity offered by the market for American Treasuries, which have a single issuer. The euro has 16 separate government bond markets. Bonds held as currency reserves are useful if they can be converted to cash quickly and cheaply. The market for German government bonds meets the requirement for liquidity but others fall short.

对某些观察家来说，只要欧元还是一个没主儿的货币，它就无法对美元的统治地位构成挑战。欧元区的流动性，尚不能与美国国债市场相抗衡–该国债只有一个发行者。而欧元所面对的是16个彼此独立的公债市场。这些作为货币储备而被持有的债券只有在可以进行迅速而廉价的兑现时才算得上有用。在欧元区，除了德国政府公债市场，没人可以满足这样的要求。

This liquidity problem is compounded by worries about the default risk of some euro-area sovereign bonds, says Stephen Jen, a currency analyst at Morgan Stanley. That markets now discriminate among euro-area credits is a good thing. But it also means investors see the euro’s financial markets as fragmented, which undermines its appeal as a reserve currency. Doubts about the merits of holding euro reserves have been raised by poor co-ordination of policies-from deposit guarantees to bank bail-outs and fiscal packages-in response to the credit crisis.

对欧元区某些公债的违约风险之担心更使这一流动性问题雪上加霜–大摩的货币分析师 Stephen Jen如是说。市场如今对欧元区各国信用的区别对待是一件好事。但它也意味着欧洲金融市场在投资者眼里并非是个整体，这种看法削弱了欧元作为储备货币的吸引力。对持有欧元储备好处的质疑，亦因为各国在对抗信贷危机政策上–从储蓄担保到银行救援与财政刺激–的糟糕合作而有所增强。

The lesson that Asian central banks have taken from recent events, says Mr Jen, is that when their currencies come under pressure, they need liquid dollar securities: “It is only in bad times that the mettle of a reserve currency is tested and the dollar met that test better than the euro.”

根据Jen先生的说法，亚洲的中央银行在新近事件中所得到的教训是，当他们的货币面临压力时，他们所需的是高流动性的美元证券。”危难之时方见英雄本色，作为储备货币，美元在这场考验中的表现要优于欧元。”

The euro may yet make further ground as a reserve currency-at the expense of the smaller European currencies, the pound and the Swiss franc, if not the dollar. The more important legacy for the euro may be within the currency zone itself. Its status as a haven in the financial storm has quietened voices that habitually blame the euro and the ECB for all economic ills. If that mood is sustained, politicians may look closer to home for solutions to the problems facing their economies. The newly discriminating capital markets may nudge them in the right direction.

欧元在储备货币的斗争中将继续攻城拔寨–如果遭殃的不是美元，也应该是一些较弱的欧洲货币，比如英镑和瑞士法郎。对欧元来说，更重要的遗留问题还在货币联盟之内。鉴于欧元在本次金融风暴中避风港的作用，把所有经济问题的矛头习惯性地指向单一货币以及欧洲中央银行的现象有所减少。倘若这种情绪得以维持，政客们便可能多放些注意力在家中，去寻找经济问题的解决办法。资本市场新近所恢复的识别能力或许将推动他们走向正确的方向。
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[注解]
[1] 本文由Bender.Z 与弓长贝恩合作翻译，然一切纰漏均归后者一人所有。:-)

[2] 指伊比利亚半岛上的西班牙与葡萄牙。

 译者：弓长贝恩   Bender.Z    http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16462&extra=page%3D1