[2008.12.13] 津巴布韦：我能为你做些什么？

Zimbabwe
津巴布韦

Please do something-but what?
请做些什么吧–但又能做什么呢

Dec 11th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Africans, Europeans and Americans must together rescue a dying country
非洲、欧洲和美国应共同挽救这个垂死国家

THE Zimbabwe crisis has reached a new level that is both hideous and, paradoxically, hopeful. The hideous part is that people are dying-indeed, Zimbabwe as a country is dying-at an even faster rate than before, as cholera sweeps across the country. Mass hunger looms: the UN’s World Food Programme reckons that, in the new year, it must provide food for 5.5m in a population that has shrunk, through disease and emigration, from about 12m probably to less than 9m.

津巴布韦国内危机已上升到令人发指的地步，但矛盾的是，人们反而从中看到了曙光。可怕的是，最近津国内霍乱肆虐，造成大批难民死亡–事实上这个国家正在以最快的速度走向死亡。大规模饥荒也侵袭着津巴布韦：联合国世界粮食计划署估计，2009年，联合国必须向550万民津巴布韦难民提供粮食援助。由于疾病肆虐加上人们纷纷逃离，津巴布韦国内人口已经从1200万急降到不足900万。

Despite a power-sharing deal that Robert Mugabe signed in mid-September with the leader of the opposition, Morgan Tsvangirai, who defied the stacked odds to win both a general election and the first round of a presidential one in March, government violence continues apace. Mr Mugabe shows no sign of wanting to compromise. Even in the past fortnight, leading human-rights campaigners and people prominent in Mr Tsvangirai’s party have been abducted. The local currency is worthless, so swathes of public services have ceased to function. Zimbabweans have been reduced to subsistence (some survive on roots and berries), barter, and remittances and handouts from abroad. A true humanitarian disaster beckons.

尽管9月中旬罗伯特-穆加贝同反对党领导人茨万吉拉伊签署了权力分割协议，（后者在三月份赢得第一轮大选的情况下对大选最终结果公然抗议），但国内暴力动乱反而愈演愈烈。而穆加贝本人也没有妥协的意思。就在两周前，一些人权组织和茨万吉拉伊党内领导人还遭遇绑架。津巴布韦国内货币几乎一文不值，许多公共服务也陷入瘫痪状态。津巴布韦已经到了民不聊生的地步（一些难民靠吃树根和野莓度日），还有一些难民则以物换物或者依靠国外汇款和救济品度日。可以说，津国内正在上演一场人道主义灾难。

The hopeful angle in this horror is that cracks are widening both in Mr Mugabe’s regime and among his backers elsewhere in Africa. Riots by unpaid junior soldiers have yet to spread to the middle ranks but may do so. South Africa and the Southern African Development Community, the 15-country regional club, continue to wobble and waffle, with South Africa’s ousted president, Thabo Mbeki, as feeble as ever in his mandated role as mediator. But the spread of cholera across the Limpopo river into South Africa has intensified the debate there. Talk in high places about removing Mr Mugabe, perhaps even by force, is no longer deemed outlandish. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, an icon of the anti-apartheid movement, has called for just that. Voices elsewhere in Africa, such as those of Botswana’s president, Ian Khama, and Kenya’s prime minister, Raila Odinga, have become louder in calling for Mr Mugabe’s demise. Botswana’s foreign minister wants sanctions against Zimbabwe to include stopping oil supplies.

令人稍感欣慰的是穆加贝政权和其非洲同盟国的自身矛盾正在激化。低级别士兵因得不到工资已经开始暴乱。虽然中层士兵还没有造反，但并不能排除这种可能性。南非和南部非洲发展共同体在津问题上仍旧摇摆不定，语焉不详。姆贝基刚在南非国内被赶下台，其调解职能更是显得羸弱不堪。但是如今霍乱疫情跨过林波波河直逼南非国内，这使得南非对于如何治理津国国内内乱的辩论徒然增温。南非高层已经开始考虑废黜穆加贝，甚至动用武力。而这一切在不久前简直就是天方夜谭。反种族隔离运动先驱、南非大教主图图对此举双手赞同。非洲其他国家领导人，比如博茨瓦纳总统卡马和肯尼亚总理奥廷加的”倒穆”之声更是不绝于耳。博茨瓦纳外交部长甚至要求对津巴布韦进行制裁，包括停止对其石油供给。

In July a UN Security Council resolution to impose targeted sanctions (travel bans and asset freezes) against Mr Mugabe and his acolytes was blocked by China and Russia, with South Africa also dissenting, on the ground that Zimbabwe posed no threat to international stability. The blocking duo can hardly still argue that case with a straight face. Moreover, Zimbabwe is close to meeting the criteria for invoking the declaration endorsed at the UN in 2005 that there is an international “responsibility to protect” people facing, among other things, crimes against humanity. A group of peacemakers known as “the Elders”, including Jimmy Carter, a former American president, and Kofi Annan, the UN’s former head, having been refused entry into Zimbabwe, may help to push the issue up the UN’s agenda. Though Mr Mugabe would try to resist such a move, Mr Annan is quietly standing by to assume the mediator’s job in place of Mr Mbeki, an appointment devoutly to be wished.

今年7月，中国和俄罗斯阻挠了联合国安理会对穆加贝及其同僚实行经济制裁（限制出游和冻结资产）的决议，理由是津巴布韦并没有扰乱国际局势稳定。南非也在那次表决中投了反对票。如今，中国和俄罗斯再也不能名正言顺地以这个为借口了。2005年，联合国宣布如果一国出现反人类罪行，国际社会有责任保护该国人民。目前津巴布韦局势已接近该标准。一个名叫”长老会”的维和团体–其成员包括美国前总统卡特、联合国前秘书长安南–可能将津巴布韦问题推上联合国议事日程。在此之前，津巴布韦曾拒绝”长老会”入境。虽然穆加贝会竭尽全力对此进行阻挠，但安南事实上已悄悄接手调解者一职，这也是众望所归。

Calling for military intervention before wider sanctions have been applied is premature, even though it may come to force in the end. And economic sanctions are themselves a blunt instrument that sometimes harm the people more than the rulers. Stopping oil supplies may have just that effect. But UN sanctions focused tightly on Mr Mugabe and his coterie, and supported by South Africa, could have a big impact. The leader of South Africa’s ruling party, Jacob Zuma, likely to be the country’s president next year, must surely respond to the crescendo of outrage. The power-sharing deal is being overtaken by events. Mr Tsvangirai is right to reject the one-sided conditions under which Mr Mugabe says he will implement it. As cholera and refugees threaten to destabilise South Africa itself, its rulers must start to consider drastic measures to rescue the benighted country that Zimbabwe has now become.

尽管动用武力看起来势在必行，但在实行大规模经济制裁前就发动军事干预显然有失考虑。经济制裁本身并非良策，因为相较于统治者，普通百姓可能受害更深。停止石油供给就有可能造成这一后果。但如果联合国将制裁仅限于穆加贝和其同党，加上南非的支持，效果一定可观。南非执政党领袖祖玛明年很有可能当选总统。他定然会对国际社会日渐鼓噪的声讨声有所反应。之前的权力分割协议业已被日前一系列坏消息所取代。茨万吉拉伊对这个一边倒的协议说不，这是正确的。而穆加贝则表示他将单方面执行该协议。如今，霍乱疫情和难民潮已经威胁到南非自身，南非领导人们是时候考虑采取极端措施来挽救津巴布韦这个蒙昧之国了。

译者：james0401047  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16142&extra=page%3D1