[2008.12.13] 中国商业：衰退的福祉

Business in China
中国商业

Recession’s blessing
衰退的福祉

Dec 11th 2008 | HONG KONG AND SHENZHEN
From The Economist print edition

Falling Western demand is keeping high-quality Chinese goods in China
西方国家下滑的需求正将高品质的中国产品留在中国国内

ON THE shelves of Chinese shops is the usual assortment of toys, clothing, appliances and cookware. But over the past month the quality of many of the goods on offer has improved. In part this is because scandals over toxic paint and poisoned milk have brought closer scrutiny from inspectors and hence less corner-cutting. But it is also partly because of falling demand for Chinese goods from America, Europe and the Middle East, which has given China’s manufacturers and local government a big incentive to work around the country’s formidable export-promotion policies and to sell at home.

中国商店的货架上通常总是分类摆放着玩具、服装、小电器和厨具。但在过去的几个月里，许多这类产品的质量都有所提升。部分归因于毒油漆和毒牛奶的丑闻，监管部门的审查更严格了，偷工减料变少了。不过一部分原因是美国、欧洲和中东对中国产品的需求在下降，这给了中国制造商和地方政府很大的动机去应付国家强大的促进出口政策并在国内销售。

Chinese manufacturers are well aware that they operate in one of the few large markets that is still showing a pulse. Retail sales in October were up by 22% compared with the same month in 2007-a slight drop from 23.2% in September, but an impressive figure nonetheless. That certainly exaggerates the country’s economic vigour (growth in car sales, for example, is declining), but it would be a stretch to believe that China is in recession.

中国制造商清楚地意识到，他们所处的是一个为数不多的仍有脉搏的巨大市场。10月份的零售量比2007年同期上升了22%，虽然与9月份23.2%的增量略有下滑，但仍是一个引人注目的数字。这无疑夸大了中国的经济活力（例如汽车销量的增长率在下滑），但是，要认为中国进入了衰退还需要一段时间。

As domestic consumption booms, China’s export-oriented manufacturers are under siege. Figures announced on December 10th showed that exports fell by a startling 2.2% in November, compared with a year earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of around 15%; it was the first fall in exports for seven years. The news followed a government survey, released on December 1st that showed a precipitous decline in the fortunes of export manufacturers, confirming lots of anecdotal evidence. Every week brings fresh reports of factory closings, particularly in the industrial belt around the Pearl River delta in southern China. Unpaid workers have been staging violent protests. Diverting goods intended for export to the domestic market makes sense for factory owners, who want their firms to survive, and for local officials, who wish to maintain order.

虽然国内消费开始繁荣，但中国出口为导向的制造商正陷入困境。12月11日公布的数据显示，11月份出口量较去年同期惊人地下降了2.2%。分析人士原先预期会增长15%左右，这是出口近七年来首次下滑。在这则新闻之前，12月1日发布了一项政府调查结果显示，出口制造商的财富急剧缩水，也证实了大量传闻。每周都有工厂关闭的最新报道，尤其是在中国南方珠三角地区的工业带。没有拿到报酬的工人已经举行了多次暴力抗议。将产品由出口转向内销对工厂老板和地方官员来说都说得通，前者希望自己的企业生存下去，后者想要保持社会稳定。

There is, however, a problem. This scheme conflicts with government policy, which is to promote exports. China encourages the import of industrial commodities, such as oil, base metals and even quality fabrics and industrial machinery-provided goods made with them are sent abroad. Accordingly, a tax is imposed on imports, and is then mostly reimbursed when finished goods are exported. (Products brought into special zones devoted to manufacturing for markets abroad avoid the tax altogether.)

然而，这也是一个问题。这种安排与政府鼓励出口的政策有冲突。中国鼓励进口工业原材料，如石油、基础金属，甚至是高品质的纺织品和工业机械–用来生产出口产品。因此，征税是在进口环节，制成品出口后大部分税收会被退回。（在保税区，制造品被运进来加工生产后再出口可以完全避免税收。）

As a result of pressure from China’s trading partners, these tax rebates on exports had been contracting. But in November a new stimulus plan was announced that increased the rebates on more than 3,000 items. Evidently China’s officials hope the country can once again export its way to higher growth, despite the financial troubles in its main markets.

由于中国的贸易伙伴施压，这些出口退税一直在缩减。但是11月公布的一项新的刺激计划增加了超过3000项退税项目。显然，中国的官员希望能够再次以出口方式来实现更高增长，尽管金融困难是在其主要市场。

Given that demand is more robust at home than abroad, the market is pushing in the opposite direction to the government. But circumventing official policy is difficult. Along with the loss of the rebate, say manufacturers, comes an increase in attention from public authorities that most companies prefer to avoid. Some manufacturers therefore avoid the domestic market in China entirely; others run separate factories for domestic and foreign goods.

鉴于国内的需求比国外需求更强劲，市场正与政府的意愿背道而驰。但是，绕过官方的政策是很困难的。据制造商反映，一方面是退税的损失，另一方面是政府当局注意力的增加，而这是大多数公司倾向于避免的问题。因此许多中国制造商完全放弃国内市场；其他制造商在不同的工厂分别为国内和国外市场生产产品。

One solution is to route goods to the domestic market via Hong Kong, so that they qualify as exports, but this takes time and money and strikes many operators as a huge waste of both. China and Hong Kong are filled with small trading companies noted for their ability to handle these problems using one murky method or another. The sudden appearance of higher-quality goods suggests that officials are being less zealous than usual in enforcing the export rules, for fear of causing job losses.

一种解决办法是绕道香港将货物运送到国内市场，因为这样也能取得出口资格，但由此带来的时间和金钱上的巨大损失对许多老板来说都是打击。中国内地和香港到处都是小贸易公司，他们所著名的正是运用某种阴暗的手段来处理这些难题的能力。突然冒出来的高质量产品表明，官员们执行出口规则的热情与以往相比正在减少，因为担忧引发失业问题。

Chinese consumers, for their part, must surely be pleased that they can buy better products at keen prices. A year ago, the boom was expected to be the means of breaking down the divide between China’s domestic and export-led economies. But perhaps a bust is what was required.

对中国消费者而言，他们一定很高兴可以买到价更廉物更美的产品。一年以前，中国指望依靠繁荣来打破内需拉动经济和出口主导经济之间鸿沟。但是，也许，一场萧条才是所需要的。

译者：kahlen 编辑：zhs2046  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=16033&extra=page%3D1