[2008.11.22] 美国财政措施：刻不容缓

American fiscal policy
美国财政措施

No time to waste
刻不容缓

Nov 20th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The American economy urgently needs a big fiscal stimulus. Too bad both parties are putting politics first
美国经济亟待强烈财政刺激，而两党政治优先的选择实在是大错特错。



AT THEIR summit in Washington, DC, last weekend, the leaders of the G20—the world’s biggest rich and emerging economies—promised “rapid” fiscal stimulus to prop up their economies. Sadly, America already seems to be failing to keep that promise, paralysed by the politics of transition.
上周末在华盛顿特区举行的峰会上，来自全球发达国家及新型经济国家的20国集团首脑承诺“迅速”实施财政刺激手段，以支撑各自的经济形势。遗憾的是美国已经出现了无法恪守诺言的迹象，其成因是新旧总统政权交替时期的政治形势。

As The Economist went to press, a Democrat-backed plan for a $100 billion fiscal boost, which included a modest rise in infrastructure spending and some aid to the states as well as a misguided bail-out for Detroit’s carmakers, seemed doomed in the Senate. The lame-duck Congress looks set to deliver nothing more than an extension of unemployment benefits. Serious debate about a broader stimulus has been put off until the new president and legislature take over in January.
本期经济学人付梓的时候，共和党力主的1000亿美元财政刺激方案似乎注定要受到参议院的否决，该计划包括了在基础建设方面投入的适度增加、对国家的救助 以及调整对底特律车商的错误救助计划。在新老总统交替时期，国会除了延长失业员工福利以外似乎什么都没有做。针对更为广泛的刺激政策所进行的一系列辩论被 推迟到2009年1月，届时新总统和议会将全面接受政权。

That may not seem long. But given the deterioration of America’s economy in recent weeks, the delay is dangerous. From tumbling retail sales to soaring unemployment claims, the latest statistics suggest that the economy has grown increasingly grim (see article). Private demand is plunging as consumers are battered by tight credit, falling wealth and rising unemployment, while fearful firms hunker down. Americans’ collective and sudden rediscovery of thrift is pushing the economy into its worst recession since at least 1982. And unlike the early 1980s, there is little prospect of a quick turnaround.
虽然推迟的时间不会太久，但是鉴于近几周以来美国日益恶化的经济形势，延迟是一个危险的信号。从崩溃的零售业到骤增的失业人口，所有最新数据都体现出美国 经济已经加速走向更为严峻的形势。消费者因信贷紧缩、财富蒸发和失业率上升而备受打击，私人需求更是由于这个原因而跳水；而胆怯的公司更是卧倒以求自保。 美国人突现出了群体性节俭复苏潮流，该现象更是将国家经济推向了自1982年以来最为严重的萧条之中。而与80年代初期的不同之处在于，此次危机丝毫没有 很快可以逆转的迹象。

Shovel it out to the states
救助各州

Normally spending splurges are to be distrusted, but the scale of this downturn argues for bold budgetary action. Large sums will be needed: at least $300 billion, or more than 2% of GDP. And with so swift a decline, speed is of the essence, not least because America has far fewer “automatic stabilisers” than other rich countries with which to cushion a recession.
通常情况下过渡的支出会引发质疑，但此次经济低迷的程度却让鲁莽的预算行为受到赞扬。目前的资金需求量很大，至少需要3000亿美元或者超过2%的 GDP。经济在如此迅速的下降中，资金投入的速度是最关键的因素，因为与其他发达国家相比，美国缺乏可以缓冲经济萧条的“自动稳定因素”。

Thanks to the changing nature of America’s workforce, unemployment insurance offers less of a prop to demand than it used to. The proportion of part-time workers, for instance, is higher than it was a generation ago, but in nearly two-thirds of states part-time workers are ineligible for unemployment benefits. The states’ fiscal rules, which require most of them to balance their budgets, also make a federal stimulus more urgent. With revenues vanishing, the states collectively face a $70 billion budget gap this year. Half have already started cancelling infrastructure projects, cutting health-care benefits or laying off workers.
感谢美国劳动力本性的改变，失业保险不再需要象以往那样支撑需求。比如，兼职工人比例比以前有所提高，不过接近三分之二的兼职工人没有得到失业保险的保 障。国家财政制度要求大部分的兼职工人可以实现收支平衡，该要求也使联邦刺激政策显得更为急迫。随着收入减少，本年度各州所面临的预算缺口总额达到700 亿美元。超过一半的地区都取消了一些基础设施项目，削减了健康保障计划或者进行了裁员。

The federal government can counter this. A bill to modernise unemployment insurance has already passed the House of Representatives, though it languishes in the Senate. Washington can shovel money to the states quickly and easily, for instance by increasing its share of jointly financed spending, such as Medicaid, which pays for poor people’s health care. The Senate Democrats’ stimulus plan would have done this, if too timidly. Republican opposition, based on a misguided aversion to government spending and political sour grapes, is short-sighted in the extreme.
联邦政府无法驳回这些举措。一个对失业保险进行现代化改进的议案已经得到了众议院的通过，不过在参议院却经历了反复的论证。华府可以在与州政府共同资助的 项目上增加支出，借此迅速且轻松的把钱扔给各州，例如投入到公共医疗补助项目上，该项目负责支付贫困人群的医疗保障。如果参议院民主党的刺激计划审慎一 些，他们就已经做到这点了；而共和党反对派怀有政治阿Q精神，而且搞错了政府支出的意义并由此产生出憎恨情绪，因此他们的短视行为已经达到了极端。

Nor, though, are the Democrats blameless. Looking ahead to bigger majorities in January, congressional Democrats have been less than eager to seek compromise. More worrying, too many on the left are keener on the grand rhetoric of redefining government’s role than on the practicalities of designing effective stimulus. Washington is full of talk of a new New Deal (see article) to put many thousands to work building a greener America. But details are scant, even as many states have scores of “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects set to be axed.
然而民主党也非全然无过。前瞻一下这个一月份的多数派，国会民主党似乎不那么热切的寻求让步。让人更为忧虑的事情是，有大量左翼人士热衷于鼓噪对政府职能 的重新定义，而不是踏实的设计更为有效的刺激措施。华盛顿的街头巷尾满是关于新政的讨论，该政策号召人们共同致力于建设一个更为环保的美国，但是在实施细 则方面则相对匮乏，甚至有些州内大量的“上马”基础设施计划已经开始削减。

Cushioning America’s downturn will demand fiscal boldness, but that does not mean eschewing simple, speedy solutions. Quick and plentiful aid to the states is one of the best.
缓冲美国的经济低迷需要果敢的财政政策，但这并不意味着要避免简单而迅捷的解决方案。对各州迅速而充足的援助是最好的财政方案。