Travel and tourism
A new itinerary
May 15th 2008 | DUBAI
From The Economist print edition
Both as destinations and as new sources of tourists, emerging economies are transforming the travel industry
WHEN you arrive at Dubai International Airport, the bus journey from your aeroplane to the terminal building takes almost 15 minutes. This is not because Dubai is inefficient—far from it—but because for a small country it has a huge airport, which is in the throes of expansion. The airport will still be too small to cope with the swelling inflow of travellers, so Dubai’s rulers are building another one, at Jebel Ali, a port town 35km (20 miles) away, which is due to come into full operation in 2017. Designed to handle 120m passengers a year, it is expected to be the world’s busiest airport.
当你到达阿联酋迪拜国际机场时，搭乘机场摆渡车到达航 站楼需要近 15分钟的车程，这并不是因为机场工作效率低下–事实远非如此–而是因为这个小国确实有个面积巨大的机场，而且目前该机场正处在扩建之中。即使如此， 迪拜国际机场的客容量也不足以承载如潮涌来的大量旅客，为此迪拜领导人决定在距现有机场35公里外（20英里）的杰贝勒阿里海港修建另一座机场，预计于 2017年全面投入运营。计划每年承载1.2亿客流量，估计将成为世界上最繁忙的机场。
Booming emerging economies are the great hope of the world’s travel and tourism industry. Dubai is the most shimmering example. It has only a tiny percentage of the United Arab Emirates’ oil reserves, and so is straining to turn itself into a regional hub for finance, travel and high-class tourism. Three palm-shaped island-resorts are being built: the Palm Jumeirah (pictured), the Palm Jebel Ali and the Palm Deira. The Burj al-Arab, curved like a sail and on another artificial island, is the world’s only seven-star hotel—with its own helipad, naturally. Dubai also boasts the Middle East’s first indoor ski-slope.
一些蓬勃高速发展的 新兴经济体为全球旅游观光业带来了巨大希望。迪拜就是其中最为显著的例子。这个城市所在位置的石油储量不大，较阿联酋全境的储量显然是微不足道的。基于 此，迪拜因地制宜转变了发展模式，竭尽所能将自己打造成为集金融，旅游，高品质观光游览为一体的区域中心。三个形似棕榈叶的观光岛屿正在兴建之中:朱美拉 棕榈岛(如图)，杰贝勒阿里棕榈岛和德以拉棕榈岛。在另一座人造岛屿上，形似帆船的伯瓷酒店是世界上惟一的七星级酒店–其奢华尊崇的品质自然要配以周到 独特的设施：酒店拥有直升机专用停机坪。迪拜也因拥有中东首家室内滑雪场而颇为自豪。
About 30% of Dubai’s GDP depends on travel and tourism, but Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai’s ruler, wants the industry to grow much more. He is the driving force behind the construction of Dubailand, a tourism and entertainment complex divided into seven theme worlds that are Dubai’s answer to Disneyland. By 2015 Dubailand is aiming to attract 15m tourists, roughly 40,000 visitors daily.
目前，迪拜国内生产总值约近三成来自于旅游观光业，不过迪拜 领导人谢赫-穆罕默德-本-拉希德-阿勒马克图姆（注：一般称为穆罕默德酋长/殿下）希望该行业能不断壮大，持续增收。目前他正在着力推进迪拜园的建设， 迪拜园是集旅游观光，休闲娱乐于一体的大型综合项目，其下包括七个主题公园。迪拜斥资兴建这个项目，志在与迪斯尼乐园相抗衡。目前预计在2015年，迪拜 园将吸引1500万游客前来观光，每日客流量约为4万人。
No wonder, then, that last month the top brass of the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the industry’s main lobby group, held their annual meeting amid Dubai’s glitz. They might have found lots of reasons to be gloomy: a weak dollar, sky-high oil and food prices, looming recession in America and a credit crunch on both sides of the Atlantic. Yet the tourism barons were fairly chipper. They hope that Americans will still travel, albeit more parsimoniously. And they think that travellers to and from emerging economies will make up for some of the flagging Wanderlust of the developed world.
难怪, 就连身为业界主要游说团体的世界旅游观光理事会，上个月，其高层要员都在迪拜的奢华酒店之中召开了年会。与会者可能已经发现了诸多因素导致时局不济，沮丧 横生：美元持续疲软，油粮价格高企，美国隐现衰退，欧美信贷危机。然而旅游观光业界的大亨们却还算悠然自得。他们寄希望于近来勤俭持家的美国人，即使在经 济拮据的状况下，仍能出外旅游。当然他们更明白“失之东隅，收之桑榆”的道理：相信来往于新兴经济体的大量游客将弥补发达国家因旅游热潮衰退而带来的部分 损失。
Ready for take-off
The rise of emerging economies marks the third revolution the travel industry has undergone in the past 50 years. The first came in the 1960s, in the shape of cheap air travel and package tours. Rising incomes enabled people of modest means to travel more, to farther-flung parts of the globe, and to take advantage of “all-in” offers that may have included sightseeing trips, scuba diving or camel rides. The second was the advent of the internet, which has allowed millions to book flights, hotels, hire cars and package tours without going near a high-street travel agent.
新兴经济 体的旅游热潮标志旅游业正经历着过去50年里的第三次变革.第一次发生在1960年代,伴随着廉价航空旅行和包办定价旅游的兴起,引发了旅游业的重大变 革.收入增长使得生活殷实的小康人士能更为频繁地观光出游,去到地球上任何一个地方,并可尽情享受”全景多方位”综合旅游线路带来的愉快体验,这其中可能 包括了乘坐观光油轮纵情大海,佩带潜水呼吸器深入海底览胜,驾乘骆驼游览沙漠风光.而第二次变革是应互联网的出现孕育而生的,它使得数百万人不必求助于坐 落在商业街的旅游代理,便可通过网络完成机票,饭店,汽车租赁和包办旅行的全部预定工作.
Now fast-growing emerging economies—not just Dubai but also the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and others, such as South Korea and Vietnam—are changing the world of travel once again, either as destinations or as sources of newly affluent travellers. Often, citizens of these countries are visiting similar, emerging lands. Last year, for example, Russians made a total of 34.3m trips abroad, up from 29.1m in 2006. Turkey was their most popular destination, followed by China and Egypt. The Chinese head the table of visitors to Vietnam.
现在,高速发展的新兴经济体不仅成为了 旅游观光地,而且还提供了滚滚客源,暴富的人们大批出游.这些新兴经济体–不只是迪拜还包括”金砖四国”(巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国)及其他国家,诸如 韩国和越南–正引领着世界旅游业再一次发生变革.通常,这些国家的公民出游多前往类似的新兴国家.举例来说,去年,俄罗斯有总计 3430万人出境旅游,较2006年的2910万人大幅增长.土耳其成为俄罗斯民众极为推崇的头号旅游目的地,紧随其后的是中国和埃及.而中国则高居赴越 南观光游客人数之首.
The WTTC claims that travel and tourism is the world’s biggest industry in terms of its contribution to global GDP and employment. The lobby group forecasts that global travel and tourism will account for $5.9 trillion of economic activity in 2008, or about 10% of global GDP, employing 238m people. It expects employment to rise to 296m in the next decade.
世界旅游观光理事会声称,旅游观光业是对全球GDP和就业贡献最大的行业.该游说团体预 测,2008年,旅游观光业的产值将高达5.9万亿美元,约占全球 GDP的10%,并解决2.38亿人的就业问题.估计未来十年，该行业将增加更多的就业机会,总计解决2.96亿人的就业问题.
In fact, assessing the scale of the industry is not straightforward. When all travel and tourism is lumped together, so that everything from airlines to cafés counts, it is no surprise that the WTTC’s total is so large. As a rule, restaurants do not record whether they are serving tourists, business travellers or locals out for a meal.
事实上,评定行业规模并非如 此轻而易举.当把旅游和观光归集到一起时,遍及从航空业到咖啡馆的林林总总都将被计算在内,所以世界旅游观光理事会计算的总产值如此之巨就不足为奇.作为 惯例,不论餐饮企业的服务对象是谁—观光游客,商务旅客,或是外出就餐的当地居民—其产值都不得计入旅游观光业的总产值.
The United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has resorted to monitoring international tourist arrivals only. It therefore knows where tourists are going to, but has a much less accurate idea of where they have come from. Travel and tourism data from developing countries, in particular, are unreliable. And many of the industry’s jobs, such as tour guides or souvenir salesmen, go unrecorded. Officially, the tourism business in Sicily is sizeable, but it would be bigger still if untaxed and undeclared jobs were counted.
而联合国世界旅游组织则采取只监控国际游客到访数的计算方 法.但是这种方法只能了解游客前往何处,而无法确定游客来自何方.特别是，关于发展中国家旅游观光业的统计数据是相当不可靠.此外,很多业内工作岗位,诸 如导游或纪念品销售员,并未纳入统计范围.官方数据显示,西西里的旅游业规模可观,但是如果将免征税的和未申报的工作岗位也计算在内的话,该行业将具备更 为庞大的规模.
Never mind the difficulties of definition and measurement: the industry, from any angle, is huge and growing. It accounts for a large part of many countries’ foreign-exchange earnings. For many developing countries, it offers an important route out of poverty. And further expansion and democratisation of tourism, centred on emerging economies, is under way. Having once worked in tourism, an increasing number of citizens of those countries are beginning to become tourists themselves.
对行业予以界定和计量的重重困难可以暂且不提:无论从哪个角度来说，旅游观光业都是规模 庞大,日益增长的.在很多国家,它支撑着外汇收入中的大壁江山.对于许多发展中国家来说，它是赖以脱贫的重要途径.针对广大新兴经济体而言,旅游业的进一 步扩张和民主化正在推进之中.在这些国家中,越来越多曾经服务于旅游业的民众,他们自己开始成为旅游业的服务对象.
According to the UNWTO, international tourist arrivals grew by 6% last year, to 900m (see chart 1). The total has gone up by almost 100m in two years. Last year the Middle East welcomed 13% more international tourists, or 46m in all. Arrivals in Asia and the Pacific were up by 10%, to 185m—with much of the extra travel coming from elsewhere in the region. Africa saw an increase of 8%, to 44m. This year, the UNWTO predicts, growth of international tourism will be fastest in Asia and the Pacific.
据 联合国世界旅游组织称,去年国际游客到访数增长了6%,达到9亿人次.(见图表1) 该总计数在过去两年内飞涨了近1亿人次.去年中东地区总共接待了4600万国际游客,人数较早前上涨了13%.而到访亚太地区的游客人数上涨了10%,达 到1.85亿人次—此外,还有大量亚太区域内各国互访的出游行程.去年,非洲的客流量增幅为8%,增至4400万.联合国世界旅游组织预测,今年国际 旅游业发展增速最快的将是亚太地区.
Forecasts for growth are even less reliable than in other industries, partly because tourism is vulnerable to shocks such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks. José Antonio Tazón, boss of Amadeus, a travel-technology company, points out that global firms are less exposed than local ones. They can make up for lost business in a region affected by catastrophes with business in other parts of the world.
较其他产业而言,旅游业的发展预期甚至并不可信,部分原因在于该行业易受打击,受到诸如自然 灾害或恐怖袭击的影响.旅游技术公司艾玛迪斯的老板José Antonio Tazón指出,全球性公司比地方性公司遭受的打击要小.因为”堤内损失堤外补”,他们深谙此道:可以用其他地区的业绩来弥补灾祸侵袭地区蒙受的损失.
A dollar won’t stretch that far
For the next year or two, the travel industry is likely to find its long-standing customers in rich Western countries a less than reliable source of growth. As American families plan their holidays, many will be worrying about the frailty of their country’s economy, the rising cost of petrol and—for those venturing outside the United States—the weakness of the dollar. They are delaying booking in the hope of nabbing cheap, last-minute deals.
在未来的一两年内,旅游业不大可能在西方富国里找到长期固定的消费者,使其 成为保证旅游业绩增长的可靠客源.当美国家庭计划其假期安排时,他们中大多数会考虑到国家经济萎靡,石油价格高涨,美元贬值疲软的现状,他们担心这些因素 使得出国旅游要冒一定的风险,经济上会蒙受一定的损失.他们纷纷推迟预定机票酒店,耐心等待并寄希望于在最后时刻享受到实惠低廉的价格.
They certainly seem to be spending less. On May 7th Orbitz, an American online travel-firm, posted a first-quarter net loss of $15m compared with a net loss of $10m a year earlier. The mainstay of its business is domestic bookings, which were 6% lower in the first quarter than a year earlier, at $2.4 billion.
About 85% of American travel and tourism is domestic. Only one-fifth of American citizens have passports. Those thinking of going abroad will need more tempting than usual. Some hotels in European cities are offering deep discounts to American travellers to make up for the weakness of the dollar. WorldHotels, a hotel-marketing company, says that Americans can book rooms at a one-to-one euro-dollar exchange rate—a saving of roughly one-third at today’s rate—at 52 of the European hotels on its books. Nevertheless, WorldHotels saw a 15% drop in business from Americans at its European hotels during the first quarter of this year.
在美国观光旅游业中,国内旅游业务约占行业总业务量的85%.只有五分之一的美国公民持有护照.对于 这些打算出国旅游的人来说，他们需要比以往更多的优惠条件来吸引他们最终走出国门.不少欧洲城市的酒店对美国游客予以大幅折扣,来弥补因美元贬值而造成的 损失.全球酒店集团是一家负责酒店运营销售和进行市场推广的专业性公司.日前,他们表示,美国游客可以在公司旗下的52家欧洲酒店,以1比1的汇价预定客 房—-以今天美元兑换欧元的汇率计算,这个价格将为美国人节省三分之一的开销.尽管如此，今年一季度全球酒店集团还是经历了业绩下滑,入住欧洲酒店的 美国人减少了15%.
Yet the industry remains confident that people will travel, even if they spend less. “One of the last bits of discretionary spending people cut is their holiday,” argues Thomas Middelhoff, chief executive of Arcandor, the German retailer that owns Thomas Cook, a travel company.
Some European travellers, by contrast, will at least have the benefit of a strong euro. Within the continent, there are other pluses. The expansion of low-cost airlines is boosting short-break travel. The extension of the passport-free Schengen area to nine more countries makes trips within Europe easier. The Euro 2008 football championship in Austria and Switzerland, the Zaragoza International Expo in Spain and Liverpool’s reign as Europe’s cultural capital are also expected to be good for business. That will help the European Union remain the biggest contributor to global travel and tourism, with 27.5% of the share of the world market and more than 10% of the industry’s total workforce.
相比美国游客而言,一些欧洲游客至少能享受到欧元坚挺所带来的实惠.如果是在欧洲大陆境内旅游的话,他们就能享受到更多的实 惠.欧洲廉价航空的广泛开展促进了区域内短途旅行的蓬勃发展.欧洲九国新近加入了自由通关的申根区,该免护照区域的扩大使得欧洲各国跨境旅游更加简便易 行.奥地利和瑞士将共同举办2008欧洲足球锦标赛;萨拉戈萨世界博览会将在西班牙召开;利物浦被评为欧洲文化之都,作为代表向世界展示欧洲文化.这些事 件也将大为提震旅游业,而且还帮助欧盟得以蝉联全球旅游观光业”最大贡献者”的殊荣:欧盟占据着世界市场27.5%的份额并且为整个行业提供了超过一成的 劳动力.
Even so, Europeans are likely to feel the slowdown of the economy and the impact of the high price of oil. British Airways recently upped its fuel surcharge, which now stands at £158 ($312) for a return long-haul flight to Britain. On May 7th easyJet, a low-cost airline, unveiled a £57.5m loss for the six months to the end of March. Granted, that is usually the company’s weaker half-year, but the loss a year before had been only £17.1m. The trouble was the rising cost of fuel, which now accounts for 28% of easyJet’s cost per seat. All this means tourism in the EU will grow by only about 2% this year, reckons the WTTC, compared with worldwide growth of 3-4%.
虽然如此,欧洲民众或许也隐约感受到了经 济减速和高企油价带来的影响.近来,英国航空公司上调了燃油附加费,现在返英长途航段的燃油附加费高达158英镑(约合312美元).5月7日，经营廉价 航线的easyJet公布的数据显示,截止3月份以来的六个月里,该公司蒙受了5750万英镑的巨额亏损.不得不承认,公司这半年来的业绩大都十分惨淡, 不过仅在一年之前,公司的亏损额只有1710万英镑.问题的症结在于燃油成本的上涨,在easyJet航班上每一个座位的总成本中,现在有28%的份额隶 属于燃油成本.所有这些因素意味着,较世界范围3 -4%的增长率,今年欧洲旅游业的增长率仅为2%,世界旅游观光理事会如此预测道.
For faster growth, the industry will have to look to emerging economies. These are becoming increasingly well established as places to visit. Now they are starting to provide more visitors too. According to McKinsey, a consulting firm, by the middle of the next decade almost a billion people will see their annual household incomes rise beyond $5,000—roughly the threshold for spending money on discretionary goods and services rather than simple necessities. Consumers’ spending power in emerging economies will rise from $4 trillion in 2006 to more than $9 trillion—nearly the spending power of western Europe today.
为了更快地发 展,旅游观光业不得不将目光头投向新兴经济体.这些国家的各项建设日益完善,已经做好了迎接各方宾朋到访观光的准备.现在，这些国家也开始大量输出游客. 据麦卡锡咨询公司分析,再过五年,这些新兴经济体中将有近10亿人的家庭年收入超过5000美元–这个数字可以粗略地被看作是划分家庭支出的界限,收入 在此界限之上的人们更倾向于把钱花费在各种自主商品和服务上,而不只是消费简单的生活必需品.那时,新兴经济体的消费者购买力将从2006年的4万亿美元 增至9万亿美元 —-这几乎相当于现在整个西欧的消费能力.
Some of that extra purchasing power will go on travel, at home and abroad (see chart 2). Western companies are flocking into the developing world to prepare for these new tourists. “The Middle East, India and China are the next big thing,” predicts Bill Marriott, the chairman and chief executive of Marriott, an American hotel chain. He thinks that the industry will be bigger in the Middle East, where he is planning to build 65 hotels by 2011, than in India. China will dwarf even the Middle East.
一些用于自主消费的 购买力将流向国内旅游和出境旅游(见图表2).西方的旅游公司纷至沓来,涌入发展中国家抢占市场,做好准备迎接这些新游客.万豪国际酒店集团是一家美国酒 店连锁企业,其主席兼总裁比尔·马里奥特预言道:”中东,印度和中国将是未来行业关注的重点.”他认为,与印度相比,中东的行业市场前景更为广阔. 2011年前,比尔·马里奥特计划中东地区投资兴建65座酒店.到那时,就连中国市场也会在巨大的中东市场面前自惭形秽,相形见绌.
The new travellers
Last year the number of visits abroad by the Chinese reached 47m, 5m more than the number of foreign visitors to China. The Chinese also made 1.6 billion trips at home—a staggering total, but not much more than one each. According to WTTC forecasts, Chinese demand for travel and tourism will quadruple in value in the next ten years. At present China ranks a distant second, behind the United States, in terms of demand, but by 2018 it will have closed much of the gap.
去年,中国出境旅游的人数总计4700万, 比到访中国的外国游客总数还多出五万人次.在中国境内旅游方面,国人出行次数也高达16亿—-总量另人叹为观止,但人均量为数不多.据世界旅游观光理 事会预测,未来十年中,中国民众对旅游观光的需求量将翻两番.从需求量上看,目前中国位列世界第二,但远远落后于排名首位的美国,不过到2018年的时 候,这种差距将被大大缩小.
Other emerging economies have woken up to the spending power of Chinese tourists. Mexico is one: AeroMéxico will begin direct flights between Mexico City and Shanghai at the end of May. The plan is to fly twice a week. In Vietnam, home to one of the fastest-growing tourist industries in the world, Chinese and other Asian tourists are overtaking Westerners. In the first 11 months of last year 507,000 visitors came to Vietnam from China, along with 442,000 from South Korea and 376,000 from America. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is also counting on more Chinese custom. It forecasts that 1.3m Chinese will visit the country this year, 10% more than last year (when visitors were put off by Thailand’s unsettled politics).
其他一些新兴经济体对中国游客的消费能力已经有所认识.墨西哥就是意识到这种商机的国家之一:五月底,墨西哥全国航空公司将 开通往返于墨西哥城和上海之间的直飞航线.计划每周飞行两个班次.越南目前是世界观光业发展最快的国家之一,大批来自中国及亚洲其他地区的游客在这个国家 旅游观光,其数量正在超过到此游玩的西方游客数.去年的头十一个月里,有50.7万中国人,44.2万韩国人和37.6万美国人先后到访越南游览风景名 胜.泰国旅游部门也统计出,通关入境到泰国来的中国人较多.预测今年将有130万中国人出访该国,人数较去年增长了10%(去年,泰国政局动荡不安,权利 纷争悬而未决.基于此,很多游客推迟了出游该国的行程).
To speed up the development of tourism and other industries, the Chinese government is racing to build roads, railways and airports. In January it said that it planned to add 97 airports by 2020 to the 142 China had at the end of 2006. The number with an annual handling capacity of over 30m passengers will grow from three to 13. According to the state media, investment in infrastructure will see double-digit growth every year for the rest of the decade. Between 2006 and 2010, $200 billion is expected to have been invested in railways alone, four times more than in the previous five years. In June the world’s longest sea-crossing bridge, a 36km six-lane highway across Hangzhou Bay, is due to open. This will halve the travel time between Ningbo and Shanghai, two of China’s busiest ports, to about two hours.
为了促进旅游观光及其他行业的高速发展,中国政府正在加速建设公路,铁路和机场.一月份官方对外表示,2006年底时中国拥有机场 142座,截止2020 年,政府将在此基础上新建机场97座.年旅客承载量超过3000万人次的大型机场,将由原来的3个增加到13个.据国有媒体报道,从今年到2010年,每 年用于基础设施建设的投入将以两位数的高增长率不断加大.2006至2010年间,仅在铁路建设方面的投入就高达2000亿美元,相当于过去五年总投入的 四倍之多.今年六月份,横跨杭州湾全长36公里,其上高速公路六车道并行的世界最长跨海大桥将投入使用.这座大桥的落成使得中国两个最忙碌的港口城市– -上海和宁波—之间的行程将缩短至两个小时左右.
Asia’s other rising economic giant is lagging behind China, both as a source of tourists and as a tourist destination. Last year India had only 5.5m foreign visitors, a tiny share of the world market: the country of the Taj Mahal and the Himalayas ranks below Bulgaria and Bahrain. Fewer than 10m Indians travelled abroad, though about 600m Indians made trips at home. Andhra Pradesh, home of many religious sites, got the lion’s share of visits, whereas foreigners flocked to Delhi and Maharashtra, India’s most urbanised state. Travel on the subcontinent can be bewildering even for Indians, owing to more than 20 official languages and innumerable dialects. Many moan as much as foreigners do about uncomfortable transport, strange food, unusual bowel movements and the lack of decent hotel rooms.
从提供客源和作为旅游目的地的角度来看,亚洲其他崛起的经济大国都远远落在中国之后.去年,出访印度的外国游客只有 550万人,这个数字在国际旅游市场中所占的份额简直微不足道:在游客数量方面,拥有泰姬陵和喜马拉雅山脉的大国–印度,居然位列保加利亚和巴林这样的 小国之后.虽然约有6亿印度公民在其境内观光旅游,但是出境旅游的印度人不超过1000万.尽管外国游人如潮涌向德里和马哈拉什特拉邦(这是印度城市化程 度最高的两个地区),但是印度最受欢迎,到访量最大的旅游胜地,却是拥有众多宗教遗迹的安得拉邦.印度的官方语言超过20种,各地方言更是不计其数.这种 情况甚至造成,一些在国内旅游的印度人都被搞得晕头转向,茫然失措.外国游客也是怨声载道,问题大都集中在混乱不便的交通,味道古怪的食物,费解独特的风 俗以及环境糟糕的客房.
The subcontinent’s biggest problem is the poor state of much of its infrastructure. The government plans to spend more than 20 trillion rupees (around $500 billion) on infrastructure in the five years to 2012. India’s tourism ministry says it spent 4.6 trillion rupees on 248 projects in the year to March. India’s main airports are undergoing expensive facelifts with lots of private-sector money. Parts of Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport are gleaming; but elsewhere people sit with their saris drawn over their mouths to stop themselves inhaling the dust as plasterboard is machine-sawn nearby. At Indira Gandhi airport in Delhi, immigration officials will think nothing of clocking off with four or five people left in the queue, who then have to go to the back of another line. An official will stamp a traveller’s visa—and a few yards later a guard will check that it has indeed been stamped.
在这片次大陆上,最严重的问题是多数基础设施建设极不完善.截止于2012年,政府计划在五年间投入二 十多万亿卢比(约合5000亿美元)用于逐步完善本国基础设施.印度旅游部门表示,截止3月份,在过去的一年的时间里,印度新近开发旅游项目248个,总 共耗资4.6万亿卢比.在巨额私营资本的支持下,印度各大主要机场正进行着造价昂贵的整修翻新.孟买贾特拉帕蒂·希瓦吉国际机场的局部已经修葺完毕,焕然 一新.而在未完工的区域里,工人正用机器切割石膏板.一旁的座位上是正在候机的旅客,这些人不得不用裹身的莎丽遮掩口鼻,以防吸入施工散发的灰尘.在德里 的甘地国际机场, 负责入境检验的工作人员很可能在还有四五个旅客排队等待办理入镜手续时,堂而皇之地打卡下班.而这几个旅客不得不站另找个检验窗口重新排队,在队尾开始漫 长地等待.还有一种可能是:一位工作人员已经在旅客的签证上盖章认证—随后几码之外的警卫可能再次核对这个确已盖章的签证.
Some investors are backing the country’s breathtaking beauty against all the inconvenience and bureaucracy. Marilyn Carlson Nelson, chief executive of Carlson, a privately owned travel group which owns Radisson hotels and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, sees great promise in India. Carlson is developing around 50 hotels in India compared with only ten in China. Manny Fontenla-Novoa, chief executive of Thomas Cook, a travel company, is equally optimistic about India’s potential. In March Thomas Cook bought Thomas Cook India, the subcontinent’s largest foreign-exchange and second-biggest travel business, dating back to the 1880s, from Dubai Financial Group. Joint ventures in Russia and China are next on Mr Fontenla-Novoa’s list.
一些投资者不顾设施不便及官僚作风带来的一切羁绊,勇往直前大举进军印度旅游业,促使他们如 此执着的原因在于印度另人叹为观止,美不胜收的自然风光和人文景观.卡尔森集团是一家经营旅游酒店业务的私人企业,麾下拥有多家丽笙酒店和丽晶七海邮轮. 集团总裁玛里琳·卡尔森·纳尔逊认识到:印度的旅游业前景广阔.同在中国仅建造10家酒店的投资规模相比,卡尔森集团正在印度大举兴建酒店,投资规模将高 达50家左右.旅游公司托马斯库克的首席执行官—-曼尼·冯滕纳·诺沃阿也相当看好印度旅游业的发展潜力.三月份,托马斯库克公司从迪拜金融集团手中 收购了印度的托马斯库克品牌企业.该企业创建于19世纪80年代,目前,旗下掌控着印度规模最大的外汇兑换业务,而其旅游代理业务位居全国第二.冯滕纳· 诺沃阿先生随后的日程规划将是在俄罗斯和中国开办合资公司.
Clouds on the horizon
What might stop tourism’s latest revolution? Political violence is one possibility. Developed countries are no strangers to terrorism, but the dangers in emerging economies are greater. This week’s bomb attacks in Jaipur, a popular spot on the Indian tourist trail, are a bloody reminder. Kenya, a country that depends on tourism for much of its foreign income, lost about half its business in the wake of political violence after elections in December. Natural disasters are also likelier to cause worse devastation in poorer places. However, Mr Tazón of Amadeus points out that “the industry has proved to be very resilient.” It recovered quickly after the terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001, SARS, the outbreak of the war in Iraq and the tsunami in December 2004.
但是什么因素可能阻碍旅游业目前的变革呢? 具有政治意图的暴力活动可能成为一种阻碍变革的因素.发达国家大多对恐怖主义的危害有所了解,然而实际上,恐怖主义对新兴经济体造成的危害更为严重.本 周,在倍受欢迎的印度旅游胜地斋普尔, 发生了炸弹袭击.这是一个血的教训,足以让民众了解恐怖袭击的危害.去年12月,肯尼亚大选之后,该国发生了具有政治图谋的暴力事件.对于一个严重依赖旅 游业获取外汇收入的国家,这次暴力事件导致肯尼亚的旅游业生意惨淡,损失过半.自然灾害也很有可能在较为贫穷的国家造成更大规模的破坏.不过,艾玛迪斯的 老板Tazón先生指出,”旅游业已被证实具有很强的适应力,能快速复原.” 2001年的”911″恐怖袭击,非典疫情蔓延,伊拉克战争爆发和2004年12月的海啸,旅游业每次经历如上种种打击后,都很快得恢复了过来.
Another possible obstacle is the growing concern, especially in Western countries, with the environment. During the 1960s and 1970s, when tourism was growing explosively in American and Europe, few gave much thought to the consequences for the planet. That has changed. Philippe Bourguignon, vice-chairman of Revolution Places, a travel business, says that greenery cannot be dismissed as merely the flavour of the month.
另一个可能的障碍来自于对环境的日益关注,特别是来自西方国家的高度关注.在二十世纪六七十年代间,旅游业在欧美地区经历了爆炸式的 增长,但是极少人深入思考过这个发展迅猛的行业将会给地球带来怎样的后果.现在这种状况得以改变.旅游公司变革之地的副主席菲利普·鲍格农表示,关注自然 环境并非一朝一夕,要长期坚持.
The industry, which contributes 5-6% of all carbon emissions, seems worried. Green strategies are multiplying. In April Travelport, a travel-technology company, introduced the Travelport Carbon Tracker, which allows travel agencies and companies to measure and analyse carbon emissions and hence to help “sustainable travel decision-making”. Hotels are keen to show that they conserve water (do you really need a clean towel every day?), recycle rubbish, and save electricity by using low-energy light bulbs. Airlines order less thirsty planes. Eco-spas powered by wind turbines and solar panels, and safaris based on conservation are vying for the customer with a green conscience.
旅游业的碳排放量占到各行业总排放量的5-6%,业界对此也深感忧虑.基于现状,采取绿色环保 发展策略的从业者层出不穷.四月份,旅游技术公司Travelport推出了碳排放量追踪工具,旅游社和旅游公司可以利用这种仪器测量和分析碳排放量,从 而有助于实现”可持续发展旅游决策”. 大多数酒店热衷于宣传他们的节能环保行为,诸如:节约用水(你真的希望每天都有一条干净毛巾吗?),回收垃圾，利用节能灯泡节约用电.航空公司纷纷订购低 油耗的飞机.利用风力涡轮机和太阳电池板发电供能的生态温泉疗养中心,以及注重生态不破坏环境的野外探险旅游团体,都是针对具有绿色环保意识的消费者应孕 而生的,目前这两大旅游休闲项目正在争夺这些目标消费者.
Marriott’s efforts are a case in point. In April the hotel firm and the Brazilian state of Amazonas signed an agreement to protect 1.4m acres of endangered Amazon rainforest in the Juma Sustainable Development Reserve. Marriott is chipping in $2m to pay for an environmental management plan administered by the newly created Amazonas Sustainable Foundation that will support employment, education and health care for the approximately 500 people who live in the Juma reserve. Over the next ten years Marriott aims to reduce energy and water consumption at its hotels by 25% by, for instance, introducing solar power at up to 40 hotels. “After years of lip service, companies like Marriott are really being proactive,” says Michael Johnson, dean of Cornell University’s School of Hotel Administration.
万豪集团的不懈努力为保护环境提供了一个良好的范例.今年4月份,万豪酒店集团 与巴西亚马孙州签定协议,出资拯救位于JUMA可持续发展自然保护区内,面积140万英亩,濒临灭绝的亚马逊热带雨林.日前,万豪家族捐出200万美元, 用于资助亚马逊可持续发展基金会贯彻实施一个环境治理计划.该基金会是新近成立的一个慈善组织,主要是针对生活在JUMA自然保护区内的近500名当地居 民,为他们提供就业,教育和医疗援助.在未来的十余年里,万豪集团将致力于推动旗下酒店节能降耗,将能源和水源的消耗量降低25%,例如采取如下方式:在 40家酒店里引入太阳能供电系统.康奈尔大学酒店管理学院的院长迈克·约翰逊说:”在表演了多年‘天桥把势’之后,像万豪集团这样的企业终于把自己的口头 承诺落实到了行动上,并且颇具前瞻性的主动出击保护环境.”
For all this concern, emerging economies are much more interested in rapid growth than in ecology. And holidaymakers, wherever they are from, seem unwilling to give up flying or driving just yet. Mr Fontenla-Novoa sees little evidence that an environmental conscience plays a big part in customers’ travel planning. Westerners have had their decades of fun. Now the rest of the world wants a turn.
综上所述,新兴经济体的关注点更倾向于快速发展而非生态环境.对于准备渡假的游客来说，不论他们来自何 方,目前看来他们还不打算取消出游的航班或是自驾的旅程.冯滕纳·诺沃阿先生发现鲜有迹象表明,环境公德心在消费者的出游计划中扮演重要角色.过去数十年 中,西方人到处游山玩水,已经享乐无数.而对于西方世界以外的人们来说,他们觉得,现在已经是时候轮到自己开始享受生活了.