[2008.05.10]Economics focus: A tale of two worlds 冰火两重天

Economics focus
经济观察

A tale of two worlds

冰火两重天

May 8th 2008
From The Economist print edition

If emerging economies diverge from America’s, monetary policy also needs to break free
货币政策不独立，新兴经济体就无法真正与美国脱钩

POLICYMAKERS in Washington and London have been losing sleep over the risks of financial meltdown and recession. In sharp contrast, the biggest worry in Beijing, Moscow and other emerging-market capitals is rising inflation. China’s inflation rate has jumped to 8.3% from 2.2% in early 2007; Russia’s is running at 13.3% (see left-hand chart). HSBC forecasts that the average inflation rate in emerging economies will rise to 6.6% this year, its highest in ten years.
最近，华盛顿和伦敦的政策制定者被金融动荡和衰退风险折腾得寝食难安。与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国、俄罗斯和其他新兴国家领导人最担心的却是通胀恶化。中国的通货膨胀率已从2007年初的2.2%跃升到8.3%，俄罗斯更是达到了13.3%（见图左）。汇丰银行（HSBC）估计，今年新兴市场国家平均通货膨胀率将达到6.6%，为十年来最高值。

One reason is the surge in food and energy prices. Food accounts for a bigger slice of spending in poor countries than in rich ones, so rising grain and meat prices have a bigger impact on inflation. But this is only part of the story: core inflation rates are also creeping up, and lax monetary policies are to blame.
通胀恶化的原因之一是食品和能源价格上涨。与发达国家相比，食品在贫穷国家的支出中所占比重更高，因此谷物和肉食价格上涨对通胀的影响也更大。但食品和能源价格高企并非通胀恶化的全部原因——核心通货膨胀率也在节节攀升，宽松的货币政策难逃其咎。

As America stumbles, growth in emerging economies seems to be holding up well. HSBC forecasts average GDP growth of 6.5% this year, more than four times as fast as in developed countries. The problem is that although economies may have decoupled, their monetary policies have not. Whereas the greater resilience of the emerging world is a source of stability for the global economy, the monetary linkages between rich and poor economies complicate matters.
美国经济放缓似乎并未对新兴市场国家造成多大影响。汇丰银行估计，今年新兴市场平均GDP增长率将达到6.5%，是发达国家的四倍。问题是，尽管新兴市场的经济已与发达国家脱钩，其货币政策还是有着千丝万缕的联系。新兴市场的良好状况有利于稳定全球经济，但发达国家和贫穷国家之间货币机制上的联系却使问题复杂化了。

Emerging economies were partly to blame for America’s housing and credit bubble. As China and Gulf oil exporters purchased American Treasury bonds in order to hold down their currencies, this pushed down bond yields and helped to fuel the housing boom. Low yields also encouraged investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets, such as mortgage-backed securities. That bubble has burst, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Now, those same exchange-rate policies that helped to cause America’s financial crisis are leading emerging economies to run overly loose monetary policies.
从某种意义上说，新兴市场对美国房市和信贷泡沫负有一定责任。为了维持低汇率，中国和海湾石油出口国大量买入美国国库券，压低了美国国库券收益率，助长了房市繁荣。收益率降低还促使投资者为获得高回报率转向抵押贷款支持证券等高风险资产。这一泡沫现在已然破灭，迫使美联储连续降息。现在，助长美国金融危机的低汇率正在迫使新兴经济国家放松银根。

Apart from the Gulf states, few countries still peg their currencies to the dollar, but most try to limit the amount of appreciation. This means that as the Fed cuts rates there is pressure on emerging economies to do the same, to prevent capital inflows pushing up their exchange rates. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain have all followed the Fed’s April 30th rate cut. In the face of rising inflation, emerging economies should be lifting interest rates, not cutting them, but their rigid currency policies make this hard. In turn, continued surging demand in emerging economies boosts commodity prices, which reduces Americans’ spending power and so encourages the Fed to cut rates further. The more the Fed cuts, the bigger the risk of inflation in emerging markets.
除了海湾国家，现在已鲜有国家仍在盯住美元，但大多试图限制货币升值幅度。这意味着只要美联储降息，新兴国家也得亦步亦趋，否则资本流入就会抬高汇率。沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔和巴林就紧随美联储4月30日的降息政策实施了降息。为了对抗日益严重的通货膨胀，新兴国家本应升息而非降息，但缺乏弹性的货币政策使升息难以实行。反过来，新兴市场日益增加的需求抬高了商品价格，从而削弱了美国的消费能力，于是美联储不得不进一步降息。美联储降息力度越大，新兴市场的通胀风险就越高。

The right-hand chart shows just how loose monetary policy is. Joachim Fels and Manoj Pradhan, of Morgan Stanley, have made a stab at estimating neutral interest rates, ie, the short-term rates that would keep GDP growing at its trend pace and inflation on a stable path. The results are startling. In China and Russia, actual real rates are negative, against estimates of neutral real rates of 8% and 5% respectively. In India, real rates are close to zero—still far below the estimated neutral rate of 6%. Only in Brazil are real rates positive and above the neutral rate. Admittedly this ignores other tightening measures that central banks use, such as banks’ reserve requirements (both India and China have been steadily increasing them). Nevertheless, it is no coincidence that Brazil has the lowest inflation rate of the four countries. Russia, with the lowest real interest rates, has the highest inflation.
图中右侧图表显示了货币政策的宽松程度。摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）的Joachim Fels和Manoj Pradhan对中性利率（neutral interest rates，使GDP保持趋势增长率而通货膨胀率保持稳定的短期利率）做了一个粗略的估计，结果令人吃惊。中国和俄罗斯的真实利率低于零，而中性利率分别应该是8%和5%。印度的真实利率接近于零，也远远低于中性利率6%的估计值。只有巴西的真实利率为正且高于中性利率。公平地说，这项估计忽略了中央银行可以采用的其他紧缩政策，如银行准备金率（印度和中国均在稳步提高）。尽管如此，巴西的通货膨胀在上述四国中最轻微并非偶然，真实利率最低的俄罗斯，其通货膨胀也最严重。

Not so easy 不好办
The usual advice given to overheating emerging economies is that they must let their currencies rise. This would help to curb inflation by reducing import prices, and a flexible exchange rate would create more room for an independent monetary policy. Currency appreciation thus seems the obvious solution. However, Stephen King and Stuart Green, economists at HSBC, argue in a recent report that it raises many awkward questions.
对处于经济过热的新兴市场国家来说，常规的政策建议是提升汇率。这可以通过降低进口品价格缓和通货膨胀，而弹性汇率则有助于增加货币政策的独立性。因此，货币的自由升值似乎是显而易见的解决方案。然而，汇丰银行的经济学家Stephen King和Stuart Green在最新的报告中指出，这一方案会引起诸多棘手问题。

How far should currencies rise in order to keep inflation in check? China has allowed the yuan to rise by 18% against the dollar since 2005. Brazil’s currency has appreciated by more than 100% since 2003, yet even this has not stopped inflation from picking up. At 4.7%, the rate may be lower than other big developing countries, but it is still up from less than 3% a year ago, partly because of excessive growth in domestic demand. In the past two years real interest rates have fallen sharply (although they are still the highest in the world) and public spending has surged. In April the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but this is likely to lure in foreign capital. Should Brazil let its exchange rate rise further—when its current account has already moved back into deficit?
汇率应该升多少才能控制通货膨胀？自2005年以来，中国已允许人民币升值对美元升值18%。巴西货币自2003年以来升值更是超过100%，但即便如此还是没能使通胀有所下降。目前巴西的通货膨胀率是4.7%，低于其他发展中大国，但仍比去年不到3%的通胀率高了不少，部分原因是国内需求过大。过去两年以来，巴西真实利率大幅下降（尽管目前仍是世界最高），公共支出则大幅增加。今年四月，巴西央行三年来首次加息，但此举可能引发资本流入。在当前经常项目已从盈余变成赤字的情况下，巴西究竟应不应该让汇率进一步上升？

The danger of allowing these currencies to float is that they could overshoot as foreign capital floods in, eroding competitiveness and leaving economies vulnerable to a future reversal in capital flows. Another concern is whether it is wise to allow exchange rates to rise sharply when emerging-market exports are being hurt by an American recession.
允许汇率浮动也有风险：随着外来资本大量涌入，汇率可能升值过度，从而削弱竞争力，经济也可能因未来资本流出而受损。此外，在美国衰退拖累新兴市场出口之时，允许汇率大幅升值是否明智也值得商榷。

There are no easy solutions. One alternative to a free float is a one-off appreciation. The danger is that this could encourage the expectation of further appreciation, attract even bigger capital inflows and so exacerbate inflation. To work, the revaluation would need to be so big that speculators no longer expected a further rise. But a big increase might not be politically feasible. Another solution is to tighten fiscal policy. This would cool domestic demand without the need for a big rise in interest rates. The snag is that it would boost domestic saving and hence lead to larger current-account surpluses—the opposite of what America requires.
没有什么简单的解决方法。一次性升值或可成为自由浮动的替代方案。这样做的风险在于可能引发持续升值的预期，从而引发更大的资本流入，恶化通货膨胀。在实际运用中，升值必须一次到位，断绝投机者未来再度升值的预期。但一次性大幅度升值可能不具有政治上的可行性。另一个解决方案是收紧财政政策，这有利于在实行大幅升息的情况下抑制国内需求。其缺陷在于可能造成国内储蓄激增，从而进一步扩大经常项目盈余——这和美国的期望背道而驰。

The third option, and the one most likely to be pursued, is to do nothing apart from slapping on some temporary price controls, and hope that inflation pressures will soon ease. The risk is that if inflation continues to rise, policymakers will eventually have to slam on the monetary brakes.
最可能实行的是第三种方案：实行临时价格管制，其它什么也不做，然后寄希望于通胀压力迅速缓解。这样做的风险在于一旦通货膨胀继续恶化，最后不得不大力收紧货币政策。

译者：Majer

原文地址：http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11225&extra=page%3D1