[2008.05.17]Lexington: Why not both? 为何不两人都要？

Lexington
莱克星顿专栏

Why not both?
为何不两人都要？

May 15th 2008 2008年5月15日
From The Economist print edition 经济学人印刷版

The dubious case for a Democratic dream team
组建民主党梦之队的理由令人生疑。

BACK in March Barack Obama compared the Democratic primary to a “good movie” that has lasted “half an hour too long”. The movie has long since gone bad, and half an hour has dragged into an eternity. Surely it is high time to roll out the Hollywood ending.
在三月份，巴拉克奥巴马将民主党初选比作一部“拖长了半个小时的好电影”。这部电影早已变味了，这半个小时也长得似乎无穷无尽。想必该到上演好莱坞式结局的时候了。

And what could be more Hollywood than a dream ticket? This has the support of plenty of senior Democrats such as Mario Cuomo, the former governor of New York, and Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania. Why stop at having a nominee who has the support of 51% of Democrats, the argument goes, when we could have a dream ticket that has won 100%? A couple of months ago Hillary Clinton signalled that she would be willing to have Mr Obama as her vice-president. Perhaps it is time for her to swallow her pride and take the second spot.
还有什么比组建“梦幻组合”更好莱坞呢？这一提议获得了许多民主党大佬的支持，其中包括纽约州前州长Mario Cuomo以及宾夕法尼亚州州长Ed Rendell。这种观点认为：当我们可以组建一支获得了所有民主党员支持的“梦幻组合”时，为什么要满足于一位只拥有51%的党内支持度的总统提名人？几个月前希拉里克林顿暗示，她愿意让奥巴马担任其副手。或许现在到了她放下身架，甘当二把手的时候了。

The “dream ticket” would reunite a party that has fractured along lines of race and class. Mrs Clinton would boost her chances of getting the presidency some day (a third of all vice-presidents have gone on to the top job). And Mr Obama would acquire a street-fighter with a proven record of appealing to voters that he finds hard to connect with. There are plenty of examples, including the Kennedy-Johnson ticket in 1960 and the Reagan-Bush ticket in 1980, of bitter rivals turning themselves into successful allies.
“梦幻组合”将会让这个因为种族和阶级的差异而四分五裂的党派重新团结起来。克林顿夫人将提升她在将来某一天登上总统宝座的几率(美国副总统的三分之一最终正式加冕)。奥巴马则会获得一位对那些他很难攀上的选民很有吸引力的“街头霸王”，这点证据确凿。从水火不容的对手变为大功告成的盟友的例子有很多，包括1960年的肯尼迪—约翰逊组合以及1980年的里根—布什组合。

The trouble with this argument is that it overstates the benefits of an Obama-Clinton partnership and understates the costs. Mrs Clinton certainly has genuine appeal to female voters, particularly the older and less educated women who were moved by her tears in New Hampshire and have since been enthused by her dogged determination. But most of these voters are hard-core Democrats who are unlikely to defect to John McCain in November. The Democrats’ biggest problem is not with white women but with white men—particularly with white working-class men—who have been drifting to the Republican Party for decades. No less than 62% of white men voted for George Bush in 2004. John McCain, a war hero and man’s man, has an obvious appeal to this group; that appeal might prove irresistible if the Democrats pair a black man with a white woman.
这种观点的问题在于它高估了奥巴马与克林顿合作的好处，而低估了代价。克林顿夫人对于女性选民，特别是年老的以及文化程度不高的妇女很有吸引力，这一点自然毋庸置疑。她在新罕布什尔州流下的泪水使这些女性选民深受感动，从那时起他们就被其不屈不挠的决心激发得热情高涨。但是这些选民中的大多数都是民主党中的中坚分子，他们不可能在十一月临阵倒戈支持约翰麦凯恩。民主党最大的问题并不在白人女性身上，而是与数十年来漂移向共和党怀抱的白人男性，尤其是身为工人阶级的白人男性相关。在2004年不少于62% 的白人男性投票支持乔治布什。战斗英雄约翰麦凯恩更是男人中的男人，他对这一群体自然很有吸引力; 如果民主党让一位黑人和一位白人女性组合参加大选，那么他这种吸引力或许将是无法阻挡的。

The Democratic Party has plenty of people who have more genuine appeal to the white working classes than a faux populist such as the Wellesley- and Yale-educated former first lady. Ted Strickland, the governor of Ohio, is a former Methodist minister who might help Mr Obama connect with religious voters. The same can be said of Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia and a former missionary. Mr Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, goes down well with the beer-and-football crowd (he moonlights as a commentator for football matches). Unlike Mrs Clinton, these men represent vital swing states. Or there is John Edwards, who has run for veep before, and who has just endorsed Mr Obama.
民主党内有很多人都比一位冒牌的民粹主义者（比如说这位曾在卫尔斯利以及耶鲁受过教育的前第一夫人）对白人工人阶级更有吸引力。当过卫理公会教牧师的俄亥俄州州长Ted Strickland 或许会帮助奥巴马攀上笃信宗教的选民。维吉尼亚州州长Tim Kaine以前做过传教士，他同样有此能耐。宾夕法尼亚州州长Rendell 在那些钟爱啤酒和橄榄球的人群中很受欢迎(他兼职干过数场橄榄球比赛的评论员)。与克林顿夫人不同的是，这些人所代表的是那些重要的“摇摆州”（swing states）。或者还有个约翰爱德华兹可以派上用场，他以前竞选过副总统，而且刚刚宣布支持奥巴马。

There are also several others who might do much more than Mrs Clinton to make up for another of Mr Obama’s potential weaknesses—his lack of foreign policy and defence experience. Wesley Clark, Jim Webb and Chuck Hagel are all former Vietnam war heroes. Mr Clark is a retired four-star general who once commanded NATO. Mr Hagel, a Republican senator for Nebraska and a former best buddy of Mr McCain, has been one of the most outspoken critics of the Iraq war. Mr Webb, a Democratic senator for Virginia, was secretary of the navy under Ronald Reagan. Why choose an armchair warrior who has been reduced to inventing stories about dodging sniper fire in Bosnia when you can choose a genuine warrior instead?
还有好几个人或许比克林顿夫人更能弥补奥巴马的另一潜在弱点，即他欠缺外交政策和军事方面的经验。Wesley Clark, Jim Webb 和Chuck Hagel 以前都是越战英雄。Clark 是一位退休的四星将军，他曾执掌北约帅印。来自内布拉斯加州的共和党参议员Hagel 一度曾是麦凯恩最好的朋友，一直以来他都是伊拉克战争最严厉的批评者之一。维吉尼亚州民主党参议员Webb 曾在里根总统手下当过海军部长。为什么当你可以选择一位真正的勇士的时候，却要选定一位已经沉沦至编造故事（说什么在波斯尼亚躲避狙击手的枪火）夸夸其谈的“战士”。

Then there is the downside of the dream ticket. Mr Obama’s best selling-point is that he represents “change” and “hope”—a chance to break with the old politics of partisan division and personal destruction and to bring a new spirit of reconciliation to Washington, DC. The Clintons are not only living reminders of the noxious politics of the 1990s. Exit polls in Indiana and North Carolina showed that almost half of voters in the Democratic primary did not regard Mrs Clinton as trustworthy. They also bring a menagerie of old-timers in their wake, from high-paid lobbyists such as Mark Penn, to perennial bloviators like Paul Begala and James Carville.
而且“梦幻组合” 也有其消极的一面。奥巴马最大的卖点在于他代表着“变革”与“希望”，这不仅是一次与以党派分立，个人毁灭为特征的旧政治决裂的机会，也是一次将新型的和解精神带往首府的良机。克林顿夫妇会 “ 活灵活现地” 使人想起上世纪九十年代令人厌恶的派别之争。在印地安那州和北卡罗来纳州的投票后民调显示，在民主党初选中差不多有一半的选民都认为克林顿夫人并不值得信赖。一旦当选，他们也会带上一帮形形色色的昔日同僚，比方说像Mark Penn 这样报酬优厚的说客，还有Paul Begala 和James Carville 这样无时无刻都在发表冗长演说的人物。

How not to do it
怎样才能不这么做

The dream ticket would also be a formula for a dysfunctional administration. It is hard to imagine Mrs Clinton contenting herself with a purely symbolic role, any more than Dick Cheney has. She spent the early 1990s turning the position of first lady into a virtual co-presidency. She is married to a former president who has lost none of his self-regard. Team Clinton is full of people who have made it clear that they regard the Obamaites as uppity whippersnappers.
“梦幻组合”注定会造成一届机能失调的政府。同迪克切尼一样，很难想象克林顿夫人会满足于这个纯粹具有象征意义的角色。在上世纪九十年代早期，她这位第一夫人事实上已成了美国“另一位总统”。她的夫君是一位从未放弃关注自身利益的前任总统。克林顿班底有很多人已明白无误的表示说，他们认为奥巴马的拥趸是一群极其傲慢而且自以为是的家伙。

Does America really want the vice-president’s office to become—or rather remain—a rival power centre to the Oval Office? That could mean going back to the 1990s, when the White House was consumed by palace intrigue between rival factions, each determined to advance their own agendas and do down their rivals. The presidency is difficult enough to run at the best of times, without installing a former first lady and an ex-president in the vice-president’s residence.
美国是否真的想要副总统的办公室变成，或者说依旧是，与总统椭圆形办公室对立的权力中心？那或许意味着将重返上世纪九十年代，那时的白宫被敌对派系之间无休止的“宫廷阴谋”搞得奄奄一息。各路诸侯都决心促进自己的议事日程，击垮对手。在光景好的日子里总统就够难当的了，更不要说将一位前任第一夫人和一位前任总统安顿在副总统的住宅之中。

Mr Obama will find it hard to resist pressure for a shotgun marriage to Mrs Clinton. His terrible result in West Virginia this week underlines once again his weakness with the white working-class. And Mr Obama cannot win the nomination without the support of superdelegates, who are desperate to reunite a divided party. But putting Mrs Clinton on the ticket would produce few benefits that could not be replicated with a carefully chosen alternative vice-president. And at worst it could lay the foundations of a failed presidency.
奥巴马会发现要抵挡住和克林顿夫人“被迫结合”的压力真的好难。本周他在西弗吉尼亚州糟糕的表现再一次显示出他并不受白人工人阶级青睐这一弱点。如果没有那些急切渴望着重新团结这一分裂党派的超级代表的支持，奥巴马是不可能获得总统候选人提名的。克林顿夫人并没有什么不可取代的优势，加以精心挑选，很容易找到一位称心的副总统。要是选她为副总统，最糟糕的结果，恐怕会给未来一届总统任期留下失败的隐患。

译者： kevin.Ren http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11450&extra=page%3D1