[2008.01.31]PAKISTAN-On Edge（巴基斯坦：如履薄冰）

Pakistan

On edge

巴基斯坦：如履薄冰

Jan 31st 2008 | LAHORE
From The Economist print edition

If he rigs, he may have to rig big
窃国者侯

THE army is battling a Taliban insurgency in the tribal areas of the Afghan border, in which hundreds have been killed in recent weeks. In the cities, activists shouting “Go, Musharraf, Go!” are up in arms about alleged pre-election rigging of the vote due on February 18th. Yet Pakistan’s increasingly edgy president, Pervez Musharraf, went on a ten-day European jaunt to tell the West why he is still Pakistan’s best bet in the “transition to democracy” and the “war against terror”.
　　在与阿富汗接壤的部族地区，巴基斯坦的军队正与塔利班武装交火，几周以来已有数百人丧生。在城市里，激进分子们高呼着“滚，穆沙拉夫，滚！”，宣称穆沙拉夫在2月18日即将到来的大选的准备活动中有舞弊现象，并对此大加鞭挞。巴基斯坦国内局势动荡不安，佩尔维兹·穆沙拉夫却到欧洲进行了为期十天的短期访问，向西方社会游说，声称自己仍是巴“民主转型”与“反恐战争”的最佳人选。

In London he berated a respected Pakistani journalist who dared question his government’s efficacy and sincerity in combating extremism. Later he said Pakistanis should thrash such journalists if necessary for being “unpatriotic”, triggering a spate of angry comments.
　　在伦敦，一位巴基斯坦记者以令人称道的勇气置疑了穆氏政府的行政效率，以及与极端主义斗争的决心。穆沙拉夫对此大为光火，声称，巴基斯坦人对这种“毫无爱国感情”的记者不应手下容情。由此又招致了一波口诛笔伐。

Mr Musharraf’s war is not going well. The “Pakistani Taliban” have merged under Baitullah Mehsud, a warlord accused by the government of ordering the murder in December of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister. The Pakistani authorities signed a controversial peace deal with Mr Mehsud in 2005. But he used the lull to expand his army of Taliban and suicide-bombers in the tribal area of South Waziristan. Late last year an allied Taliban faction tried to seize large tracts of the Swat valley in the North-West Frontier Province. Mr Musharraf sent the army into Swat and bombed Mr Mehsud’s hideouts in Waziristan. Mr Mehsud’s followers retaliated by seizing a small town, and cutting off the road to Waziristan. The army is now fighting “miscreants” all over the tribal areas.
　　穆沙拉夫的选战形势不容乐观。一个名为“巴基斯坦塔利班”的组织与贝图拉·马哈苏德相互勾结，政府宣称，去年12月对前总理贝纳齐尔·布托的刺杀乃是受此军阀指使。2005年，马哈苏德与巴基斯坦人签订了一份饱受争议的和平协议。趁此喘息机会，他致力扩张自己的军备，并在瓦齐里斯坦南部地区训练自杀爆炸部队。去年年底时分，与他们同盟的一个塔利班分派试图控制西北边境斯瓦特山谷附近的广大地区。穆沙拉夫派兵进入斯瓦特地区，并对马哈苏德的藏身之处进行了轰炸。作为报复，马哈苏德的部下占领了一座小镇，并切断了通往瓦齐里斯坦的道路。目前，穆氏手下的军队正与遍布部族地区的“异端分子”作战。

Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, the former home minister, admits that the government failed to take “swift and decisive action” against the Taliban. He says the Taliban are well-financed, organised and motivated, and stopping their rise needs the backing of “political parties, civil society, [and] religious leaders”.
　　前内政部长阿夫塔布·艾哈迈德·汗·谢尔帕奥坦言，政府在对塔利班采取“迅速而有决定意义的行动”方面并不成功。他说，塔利班财源充裕，组织井然，行动积极。若要阻止他们的行为，需要“政治党派、国内社会、（以及）宗教领袖”的支持。

This is just what Mr Musharraf does not have. He is hugely unpopular and all the opposition parties want him out. Most Pakistanis also see this as America’s war. This has made it hard to yield to American pressure to put its own boots on the ground in Waziristan against the Taliban. The Americans are providing aerial intelligence, counter-insurgency training and weaponry. Only rarely do the Pakistanis ask for missile attacks from American drones on targets in the border regions.
　　而这些都是穆沙拉夫所不具备的。反对的呼声不绝于耳，所有反对党都对他大肆排挤。大多数巴基斯坦人都认为美国操持着这场战争。穆沙拉夫想要对美国方面让步，允许他们插足瓦齐里斯坦地区与塔利班的战争，在这种局势下将是非常艰难的。美国为他们提供着空中情报、军火，还负责训练镇压塔利班的部队。然而巴基斯坦人却几乎从未要求美国用无人战机向边境地区进行导弹攻击。

Meanwhile, it is still not certain that the elections postponed to February 18th will be held. The government has warned political leaders that they are on extremist hit lists. So security worries are curbing campaigning. Most politicians are relying on the electronic media. But the channels are shackled by new gagging laws and cannot give proper coverage to opposition rallies and protests. The air is also thick with allegations of pre-election rigging. Mr Musharraf has refused to nominate a neutral election commission or suspend the progovernment local mayors, who wield enormous influence.
　　同时，已经推迟到二月18日的大选是否能够如期举行还是个未知数。政府向各个党派的领导者发布了警告，称恐怖主义者已经将他们列入了袭击名单。这对竞选活动的进行也产生了阻碍。多数参选者需要利用电子媒体进行宣传，然而新发布的法律修正案对这一渠道进行了诸多限制，使得反对派无法籍此进行集会或进行抗议活动。关于选前舞弊的诸多说法使得气氛更为沉重。穆沙拉夫反对提名成立一个中立的选举委员会。此外，一位由他指派的地区官员在当地恶评不断，他却拒绝免除此人职务。

Indeed, with various polls showing the popularity of his party plummeting, everyone believes that Mr Musharraf will have to rig the elections in a big way. His nemeses are the slain Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, at the head of her party, which is riding a wave of sympathy, and Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister he overthrew in 1999. Last month Mr Musharraf told Pakistani newspaper editors that he foresaw a greater crisis after the elections—if the opposition parties did not accept the results, or ganged up on him in the new parliament. But unless he strikes a deal soon with one of his foes, one of these outcomes seems hard to avoid.
　　事实上，由于各种民调均显示穆沙拉夫派的支持率骤降，普遍认为，穆沙拉夫将在选举中大动手脚。他的主要竞争对手包括贝·布托的丈夫阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里，目前是人民党的领袖；以及在总理纳瓦兹·沙里夫，1999年穆氏将其推翻。上个月，穆沙拉夫对巴基斯坦的报纸编辑们表示，他担心选举后会有一场更大的危机降临，反对党们可能不接受选举的结果，或者在新成立的议会中联合反对他执政。然而若是他不能很快与至少一名对手达成协议，这些情况将无法避免。