[2008.02.14]The Democratic race-His to lose 奥巴马还会输吗？

The Democratic race民主党竞选

His to lose奥巴马还会输吗？

Feb 14th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

 

Barack Obama is now the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination

巴拉克.奥巴马现在显然已经是民主党提名候选人中的领先者了

ON SATURDAY February 9th an overflowing crowd of Virginians got a chance to see the Democratic presidential candidates giving duelling speeches at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond. More interesting than anything the candidates said, however, was the detritus afterwards. The crowds stripped the place clean of Obama signs, tearing every last one off the walls. Hillary signs were abandoned on chairs and trampled under foot.

2月9日星期六在Richmond举行的Jefferson-Jackson晚宴会中，人潮涌动的弗吉尼亚选民们获得了一个机会现场聆听民主党总统候选人发表的决战演说。会后满地的狼藉似乎比奥巴马演讲的任何内容更加有趣。人们把所有奥巴马的竞选标语、旗帜都从墙上取下来；而希拉里的则被扔弃在椅子上或者被践踏在脚下。

Abandoned and trampled upon: that has been the story of Mrs Clinton’s week. Since her successes on Super Tuesday, Barack Obama has won eight primaries and caucuses by wide—sometimes astonishing—margins. He won the Washington state caucus by 37 points. In Garfield County 100% of voters plumped for him. He won Maine by 19 points, Louisiana by 21 and Nebraska by 36.
赢得超级星期二之后的一周时间里，希拉里几乎一直在被放弃、被践踏：奥巴马以绝对的、有时甚至是令人震惊的优势赢得了全部8场初选。他在华盛顿州得票率超过对手37%；更夸张地是在Garfield郡，选民100%的投票支持他；缅因州、路易斯安那州、内布拉斯加州的优势分别为19%、21%和36%

The so-called Potomac primary completed his winning streak: he won Virginia by 29 points, Maryland by 23 points, and the District of Columbia by the minor matter of 51 points. He has now won 22 of the 35 races, beating Mrs Clinton in the last eight. In the delegate count estimated by CNN he leads by around 120 if you count only pledged delegates and over 40 if you include “superdelegates” (bigwigs with ex officio vote at the convention). He is ahead of Mrs Clinton for the first time in national polls.
所谓的波托马河流域初选成就了奥巴马的一连串胜利：他以超过对手29%的得票率在弗吉尼亚获胜，在马里兰州时这个比例为23%，在哥伦比亚特区则是轻松的达到了51%。奥巴马目前已经在35次较量中取胜了22次，其中最后8次的胜利是在击败希拉里后取得的。根据CNN预测的情况来看，奥巴马承诺代表中的领先优势在120席左右，如果包括依职权在大选中投票的“超级代表”则优势减少到40席。这是他首次在全国民意调查中领先希拉里。
The Clinton machine has done its best to minimise Mr Obama’s victories. He can only win in caucus states, the argument goes; or only in small states; or among young voters; or in states with large black populations. Mr Obama has crushed all these claims. Maine and Washington are white states with older than average voters. Virginia and Maryland both hold primaries. Virginia is exactly the sort of big Southern state that the Democrats would dearly love to win in November (it voted for George Bush in 2000 and 2004).

克林顿集团为削弱奥巴马的胜利优势已经使出了浑身解数：他们甚至四处宣称奥巴马只能在共和党的州府取胜；还散布奥巴马获胜的州府都是些小地方或者黑人占多数的地区，并且投支持票的选民都是些乳臭未干的年轻人。奥巴马则用不争的事实逐一击碎了这些谣言：他在缅因州和华盛顿州这两个白人州取得了胜利，而且那里选民的平均年龄超过了全国平均线；支持奥巴马的弗吉尼亚和马里兰也都举行了初选，弗吉尼亚这个南方大洲是不折不扣的民主党根据地，11月的初选中民主党志在必得。退回到2000年和2004年的选举，这里也投票支持了乔治.布什。

Mr Obama has not only solidified his hold over his core constituents—blacks, the young, independents and educated white liberals. He has driven a truck into Mrs Clinton’s coalition. In Virginia he won 52% of the white vote to Mrs Clinton’s 47%, 54% of the (admittedly small) Latino vote to Mrs Clinton’s 46%, 55% of people 65 and over to Mrs Clinton’s 45%. He won every income group handily.

奥巴马不仅紧密的团结了黑人、青年人、中立选民以及受过良好教育的白人自由党人作为他的核心选民，而且成功地瓦解了希拉里的联盟：在弗吉尼亚他获得了52%白人选民的支持，而希拉里只获得了47%；数量很少的拉丁裔选民支持奥巴马的占54%，希拉里得到的选票只有46%；65岁以上的选民中有55%的人支持奥巴马，剩余的45%才支持希拉里。奥巴马轻而易举的赢得了社会各个阶层的支持。

Mrs Clinton’s decision to campaign in Texas rather than Wisconsin after her defeats shows how defensive she has become. Wisconsin (which holds its primary on February 19th) is full of the sort of white working-class voters who ought to be solid Clinton supporters—and who handed the state to her husband twice in the 1990s.

希拉里被击败后没有选威斯康星作为竞选地点，而是选择了德克萨斯；这足以表明了她做出的防御姿态。威斯康星的初选将于2月19日举行，那里满是克林顿家族的支持者—白人工人阶级选民；他们曾经在90年代两度支持了希拉里的丈夫。

The Billary campaign is in turmoil. Over the weekend Mrs Clinton fired her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, and replaced her with Maggie Williams, her former chief of staff. On Tuesday night her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, also resigned. This housecleaning was a bid to shore up support among panicky donors and superdelegates. But it also reflects a troubled organisation. Mrs Clinton’s campaign has been riven by faction-fights between the “white boys” who are close to her husband and “the Hillary girls” who are close to her. It has also been hobbled by the reluctance of her advisers to bring the boss bad news. Mrs Solis Doyle’s departure was reportedly precipitated by her failure to tell Mrs Clinton that her campaign was running out of money. Mrs Clinton, it seems, had to lend the campaign $5m of her own cash.

克林顿夫妇联袂参选的局面陷入一片混乱：在过去的这个周末希拉里用她的前幕僚长Maggie Williams取代了Patti Solis Doyle竞选活动负责人的位置；竞选活动负责人副手Mike Henry也于周二晚间辞职。希拉里如此这般的清理门户旨在授意那些恐慌的竞选资助者和超级代表们加强对她的支持力度，但也折射出她的竞选组织存在着诸多的问题。亲希拉里的“希拉里女孩”与亲克林顿的“白小子”之间的派系争斗严重分裂了她的竞选活动；顾问们报喜不报忧的做法也是希拉里在竞选道路上蹒跚前行。据报道称，没有及时通知希拉里竞选资金不足才是Solis Doyle被炒鱿鱼的根本原因；而希拉里本人也因为此事要自行垫付500万美元。

This turmoil is significant for more than the obvious reason that it is dangerous to switch key staff in the middle of a campaign. It suggests that Mrs Clinton underestimated the challenge posed by Mr Obama. She expected everything to be wrapped up by Super Tuesday, and is now putting together her campaign on the fly. It also undermines her claim to be a CEO-type figure who will be ready to run the country on day one. Mr Obama has run a steadier campaign. He has consistently out-organised and out-planned his rival.

这场混乱之所以引人关注，不仅是因为竞选活动中途更换关键人员这个明显的危险举动，更是因为反映出希拉里完全低估了奥巴马给她带来的挑战。希拉里期望所有的事情都可以被超级星期二所掩饰，但现在又慌乱的把竞选活动继续完成。所有这一切破坏了希拉里标榜自己将成为CEO式人物的豪言壮语，她宣称已经做好了上任伊始就保证国家正常运转的准备。奥巴马的竞选活动有条不紊的进行着，在组织性和计划性上一直优于他的对手。

Can the Clinton machine recover? Mrs Clinton has three things on her side. The first is her “firewall”—the states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. At least one in three of Democratic voters in Texas will be Latino, a group that has favoured Mrs Clinton in the past. Mrs Clinton is ahead in the polls in Ohio, a classic blue-collar state, by almost 20 points. These two vote on March 4th. Much of Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22nd, is also Clinton-friendly, and the popular governor, Ed Rendell, is working hard on her behalf. Between them, the three states choose 492 delegates.

希拉里仍然有三件利器也许可助克林顿集团咸鱼翻身。第一个是她的防火墙，德克萨斯、俄亥俄以及宾夕法尼亚三个州：至少三分之一的德州民主党选民是一直力挺希拉里的拉丁裔；而在俄亥俄这个典型的蓝领州，希拉里目前领先对手的优势几乎达到20%，这两个州将在3月4日进行投票；在4月22日进行投票的宾夕法尼亚州也有大量的亲克林顿选民，州长Ed Rendell一直在努力的为希拉里工作。这三个州一共将产生492个代表。

The second is time. Mr Obama’s message of “change” and “hope” is becoming a little tiresome. As he becomes the front-runner, media scrutiny is bound to intensify. And Mrs Clinton will take every opportunity, not least in two forthcoming debates, to attack him on substance, particularly about national security and the economy. Is Mr Obama tough enough to stand up to John McCain on security (security-minded voters tend to favour Mrs Clinton by a wide margin)? Is he experienced enough to save the economy from free-fall? Her quip on Tuesday night—that Mr Obama is “all hat and no cattle”—will provide the subtext of everything she says.

第二件利器是时间。随着时间的延长，奥巴马关于“变革”和“希望”的宏图大志开始有些令人厌倦，媒体对这位新科的领先者也必将加大关注力度。于是希拉里将会抓住包括即将举行的两场辩论在内的每一个机会对奥巴马的竞选主旨进行抨击，特别是针对国家安全问题以及经济发展问题。不知道奥巴马是不是敢于在安全防务问题上坚强的抵抗麦凯恩，因为一心关心防务安全的选民会大力的支持希拉里。她周二晚间用双关语讽刺奥巴马“装大款”，表露了她的潜台词。

Her third advantage is the peculiar arithmetic of the delegate race. Even if Mr Obama wins every contest from now on by a five-point margin he will not gain the magic number of pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination. The Clintons are lobbying the superdelegates furiously. They are even prepared to push hard to seat the “ghost delegates” from Florida and Michigan in the convention. These are delegates elected in those states in primaries held in defiance of party rules (and hence not recognised by the party). Mr Obama’s name did not appear on Michigan’s ballot.

最后一个利器是对选举代表的独特计算方法：即使奥巴马以百分之五的优势赢得今后的每一场竞选，他也无法获得足够数量的承诺代表来确保提名成功。克林顿夫妇正在竭尽全力的游说超级代表，甚至准备尽力推举从佛罗里达州和密歇根州产生的“魅影代表”在全国代表大会中占据一席之地。这些代表在州初选中产生，但却因为公然违犯党派规则而没有得到认可。而奥巴马的名字没有出现在密歇根州的选票上。

For the New York senator, everything has to go as right in the next three weeks as it has gone wrong in the past three. Her survival depends not just on winning all three big states but on winning them convincingly. But some Texan delegates are chosen in caucuses, forums which have proved friendly to Mr Obama in the past, and Texan Latinos will not necessarily behave like their Californian cousins (who voted for her). Ohio has a lot in common with Missouri, which Mr Obama won. Mr Obama’s chances in Pennsylvania will be boosted by Philadelphia, which has a large black population, and Pittsburgh, where John Kerry and his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, are powerful forces. If Mr Obama can prevent Mrs Clinton from winning the triple, then no amount of arm-twisting of superdelegates will save her campaign.

对于纽约州的国会参议院希拉里来说，在未来的三周里一切都必须一直沿着正确的方向发展，就像过去三周她犯错时一样的执著。她在选举之战中幸存所仰仗的不仅是在三个大州的选举中取得胜利，而且更要胜得非常令人信服。但是德克萨斯部分产生于初选的代表一直对奥巴马示好，并且拉丁裔选民也不一定象他们在加利福尼亚的同胞一样的支持希拉里。奥巴马在俄亥俄以及密苏里都取得了胜利；在宾夕法尼亚州，因为在费城有大量的黑人选民、在Pittsburgh有John Kerry夫妇强大的实力，所以他在宾州的胜算也大大地提高。如果奥巴马可以阻挡住希拉里三连胜的势头，那么在超级代表的数量上希拉里将失去与奥巴马抗衡的实力，并因此会输掉竞选。