Ukraine
乌克兰
Near-abroad blues
加入欧盟前的烦恼
Sep 11th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The European Union should offer Ukraine and Russia’s other neighbours a clearer path towards membership
欧洲应该为乌克兰以及俄罗斯的其他邻邦提供加入联盟的通途
RUSSIA’S August war with Georgia was about many things besides the two enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It was about energy, Russia’s place in the world, its relationship with the West-and, above all, the reassertion of Russian interests in its “near abroad”. That means that it was about Ukraine among others. Yet the European Union, at its summit with Ukraine on September 9th, foolishly ducked a chance to throw the country a political and economic lifeline.
俄罗斯同格鲁吉亚之间的八月战争不单单是为了南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹着两块飞地，除此以外还有很多其他的问题：包括能源、俄罗斯的国际地位、同西方的关系等问题，其中最重要的应该是俄罗斯重申其在”近邻”的利益诉求；其实也就是关于乌克兰的问题。欧盟在9月9日与乌克兰的峰会上逃避了向乌提供政治及经济救命绳的机会，此举愚蠢之极。
Georgia counts in the Caucasus; it also has vital pipelines that cross its territory. But Ukraine is even more important, to both Russia and the West. The Ukrainian government, unlike Georgia’s, controls all of its own territory and harbours none of the region’s “frozen conflicts” over disputed enclaves and exclaves. Yet Ukraine is still vulnerable. Its independence has never been accepted psychologically by the Russians, whose history starts with medieval Kievan Rus. Modern Ukraine is split between a pro-European west and centre, and a more pro-Russian east. Some 8m of the country’s 45m people are ethnic Russians, many of them with Russian passports. And Crimea, a peninsula handed to Ukraine only in 1954, when both were parts of the Soviet Union, is not only heavily populated by Russians but also hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Sebastopol, under a lease due to expire in 2017. The potential flashpoints for a clash with a resurgent Russia are all too obvious.
格鲁吉亚在高加索地区至关重要；同时生死攸关的能源管线贯穿其疆土。乌克兰的重要程度更胜一筹，这不仅是对俄罗斯而言，对西方也是一样。与格鲁吉亚不同，乌克兰政府控制着自己全部的领土，并且决不允许充满争议的区域飞地问题呈现出拉锯状态。但是乌克兰仍然比较脆弱，俄罗斯从来没有真心的接受乌的独立。俄罗斯历史源自中世纪时期的基辅公国，现代乌克兰分裂成了两部分：亲欧洲的中西部和亲俄罗斯的东部。全国4500万人口中的800万是俄罗斯族，其中的多数持有俄罗斯护照。克里米亚半岛在1954年才移交给乌克兰，当时着两个地方都属于苏联；不仅居民以俄罗斯人为主，而且塞瓦斯托波尔也是黑海舰队的母港，租约到2017年才满期。与复苏的强俄之间潜在的不调和之处似乎还是很明显的。
Ukraine’s splintered politics adds to its troubles. Ever since the “orange revolution” in 2004 that swept Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency, the political drama in Kiev has been tragi-comic, as different factions and their business backers strut and squabble, Russia interferes and coalitions fall apart. The Georgia crisis has stirred things up anew, with Mr Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, a former orange ally who is prime minister, roundly abusing one another. Shortly before this week’s summit with the EU, the government collapsed again; there may be another parliamentary election (see article).
乌克兰分裂的政治给他平添了不少的麻烦。自从尤先科在2004年的橙色革命中大获全胜、就任总统以来，基辅的政治就一直是一处悲喜剧：不同的党派及其背后的资助者时而招摇、时而争论，俄罗斯的横加干涉，联盟最终土崩瓦解了。格鲁吉亚危机再次搅乱了局面，尤先科和橙色革命时的盟友、现任乌克兰首相季莫申科轮流攻击对方。在本周同欧盟峰会的前夕，政府再次分崩离析，也许还会出现一次议会选举。
Westward ho!
向西冲，驾！
The national anthem starts, unpromisingly, with the words “The glory of Ukraine is not dead yet.” All is indeed by no means lost. Politics may be fractious and corruption entrenched, but a culture of democracy has taken root, with freely competitive media and lively public debate. The economy has been outgrowing Russia’s (from an admittedly lower base). And although Ukraine’s politicians and citizens alike are divided over joining NATO, the Western security alliance, almost all strongly favour membership of the EU.
国歌响起，”乌克兰的荣耀仍未失去”的歌词似乎并没有预示着出路。所有的一切都是需要的，但决不是失败。也许政治波动，也许腐败成风，但是民主文化已经通过自由竞争的媒体和鲜活的公众辩论扎下了根基；经济的增速已经超过俄罗斯，当然是从一个明显偏低的基础上。尽管乌克兰的政客同民众一样，在是否加入北约这个西方安全联盟上分成两派，但是几乎所有的人都强烈的希望成为欧盟的一员。
What is the best way to help and encourage an independent, democratic Ukraine? It is essential to uphold the promise made at NATO’s Bucharest summit in April that both Georgia and Ukraine can one day become members if they wish, for to back down now would be to hand Russia a veto. Yet in truth NATO membership is a long way off, not least because neither country is anywhere near ready. In Ukraine’s case, the necessary political consensus is also lacking. But that is not a worry over membership of the EU. What is still missing is an EU commitment giving Ukraine solid hope of joining the club.
用什么样的途径才能最好的帮助和鼓励独立、民主的乌克兰呢？最基本的一条是要坚持4月份北约在布加勒斯特峰会上的承诺：只要格鲁吉亚和乌克兰愿意，有朝一日他们都可以成为欧盟成员；放弃以前的主张无异于俄罗斯提供了否决权。然而事实上两国距离加入北约仍是前途漫漫，尤其是在没有一个国家作好准备的情况下。就拿乌克兰来说，必要的政治共识都还没有达到，但这并不阻碍他成为欧盟成员。仍然缺失的是欧盟给予乌克兰的承诺，让后者有确凿的希望来加入欧洲俱乐部。
Such caution is a big mistake. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, as holder of the EU presidency, may be preening himself over the new ceasefire deal he struck with Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev on September 8th, but in truth the war with Georgia has shown up the EU’s vacillation. The Russians earlier made promises they did not keep and have now secured all they wanted, including the retention of extra troops and even military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (see article), despite EU demands that troops return to pre-war positions. Russia’s neighbours have few places to turn. Yet even Belarus, previously a reliable Russian ally, has reacted to the August war by nervously putting out feelers to Brussels.
如此的谨慎实在是一个大错误。作为欧盟轮值国主席，萨科奇也许还在为9月8日自己同梅德韦杰夫新近签订的停火协议而沾沾自喜，但实际上格鲁吉亚战争已经充分的暴露了欧盟的犹豫不决。俄国人早些时候承诺让步的事情如今悉数保留，尽管欧盟要求俄军撤回到战争爆发前的位置，但是俄罗斯不但保留了在南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹的额外驻军，甚至还有军事基地。俄罗斯的邻邦已经无处求援，尽管白俄罗斯是俄国人最信赖的盟友，但是在八月战争后也已经开始紧张的试探欧盟的反应。
Over the past three decades enlargement by the EU to take in new members has proved to be the most effective tool for promoting economic reform and securing liberal democracy. But it works only if countries believe they will one day be let in. After the August war, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the three Caucasus countries of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, all crave reassurance against an irredentist Russia. A clear offer of eventual EU membership, if they work hard to fulfil the necessary criteria, is the least the EU can do.
过去30年的时间里，欧盟的扩张证明了吸收新成员是推动经济改革和保证自由民主的组有效工具；但前提是这些国家确信终有一日他们会加入欧盟。八月战争后，乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆这三个高加索地区的国家，都渴望得到保障用以对抗坚持民族统一的俄罗斯。即使上述国家需要付出巨大的努力才可以达到必要的要求，那么欧盟至少可以发出一个明确入盟邀请。
译者：Tidehunter http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=14012&extra=page%3D1