[2008.09.13] 美国经济：保尔森的勇气

America’s economy
美国经济

Paulson’s pluck
保尔森的勇气

Sep 11th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

The “conservatorship” of Fannie and Freddie may soothe America’s economic woes, but it will not solve them
“委托管理”房利美和房地美可能会缓解美国经济困境，但不是治本之道

HANK PAULSON has earned himself a place in the record books as the Republican treasury secretary who engineered the biggest nationalisation in modern American history. It may be called a “conservatorship”, but the seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is, in effect, a government takeover. Whether this boldness improves the outlook for America’s economy depends on the answer to two big questions. First, will government control of Fannie and Freddie help solve America’s housing mess? Second, would stability in the housing market be enough to turn around the economy?

汉克•鲍尔森，作为筹划实施了美国现代史上最大的公司国有化的共和党财政部长，将会在历史书中占据一席之地。这次国有化可能被叫做”委托管理”，但是实际上控制房利美和房地美是政府的收购接管。这次大胆的举动是够会改善美国的经济前景依赖于两个重大的问题。第一，政府接管房利美和房地美是否有助于解决美国的房地产市场危机？第二，稳定的房地产市场是否能够扭转整个经济形势？

The answer to the first question is a qualified yes. It is hard to overstate Fannie’s and Freddie’s importance in the housing market, both as holders or guarantors of half of America’s mortgages, and as lenders who have stepped in as private finance has collapsed. Over the past year they increased their lending by about $600 billion, or 12%, and this year they have financed four out of five mortgages. Without this cushion America’s housing bust would be far worse.

对于第一个问题，有资格说”是”。很难再夸大房利美和房地美对美国房地产市场的重要性了。它们是美国半数住房抵押贷款的持有者和保证人，而随着私人融资的垮台，它们也开始作为借贷方涉入房地产市场。在去年它们的贷出款增长了12％，涨幅达6000亿美元。今年它们为五分之四的住房抵押提供贷款。如果没有两房的缓冲作用，美国的房市会比现在糟得多。

The conservatorship places restrictions on how fast Fannie and Freddie’s loan book can expand but not on the pace at which they can extend guarantees. After 2009 it demands that their portfolios shrink, but in the short term Mr Paulson’s takeover is meant to make mortgage finance flow more freely and cheaply. What is more, the Treasury said it would buy mortgage-backed securities. The impact on borrowing costs was swift. On September 10th the average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 5.79%, almost half a percentage point below the average rate of 6.25% the previous week. In effect, Mr Paulson engineered the equivalent of a half-point cut in interest rates targeted at the mortgage market.

“委托管理”限制了两房放贷的速度，但是没有限制可提供担保的贷款。过了2009年两房的投资组合可能会缩水，但是在短期内保尔森的接管会使得抵押贷款的运作更加方便与低廉。另外，财政部表示会买入抵押贷款证券。这对借款成本的影响会非常快地显现。9月10日，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.79％，几乎比前一周的6.25％低了半个百分点。实际上，这就是保尔森实现了对住房抵押市场降低利率半个百分点的目标。

If it lasts, easier access to cheaper finance ought to help boost housing demand, particularly since the plunge in house prices has improved many measures of housing affordability. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, America’s house prices have fallen by 15% in the past year. That is the biggest decline in The Economist’s house-price index (see chart). The vast overhang of unsold homes (more than 11 months-worth of supply at July’s pace of sales) coupled with accelerating foreclosures (which rose at their fastest pace in three decades between March and June) means that prices still have further to fall. But lower financing costs and stronger demand will help staunch the decline.

如果这种情况继续的话，更容易得到廉价的贷款会有助于提升买房需求，尤其是低廉的房价也提升了人们的购房承受程度。根据全国住房价格指数，在过去的一年内美国的房价下跌了15％。这是经济学人杂志住房价格指数里最大的跌幅（如图所示）。大量的未售房屋（比七月销售房屋的11倍还多）和加速的断供潮（在三月到六月的上升速度是过去30年的最高值）意味着价格还会进一步的下跌。但是低廉的贷款和强劲的需求应该会止住下跌的势头。

What about the broader economy? Since mortgage losses are at the heart of banks’ financial woes, softening the housing bust would help. Shoring up Fannie and Freddie will also compensate for tighter credit elsewhere. But the takeover will not avert the deleveraging that has hardly started. In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution, Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs predicts that house prices will fall by a further 10% and that overall mortgage-related losses will eventually reach $636 billion. Even with Fannie and Freddie continuing to lend, he reckons the credit crunch will knock 1.8 percentage points off GDP growth.

全面经济如何呢？由于抵押贷款的损失是银行最大的痛处，缓解房地产市场的危机会对银行有所帮助。顶住两房也会对其它地方的紧缩信贷有所补偿。但是接管并不能阻止已经刚刚开始的减债。高盛的Jan Hatzius在布鲁金斯研究会发表的一片论文预计，房价还会下跌10％而且总体与抵押贷款相关的损失最终会达到6360亿美元。即使两房继续放贷，他预计信贷紧缩仍会使GDP降低1.8个百分点。

Moreover, the economic picture was growing more gloomy even as the Treasury was plotting its takeover. Consumers’ troubles are mounting as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades and the labour market worsens. The jobless rate soared to 6.1% in August; with falling asset prices and tighter credit making it harder for consumers to borrow, lost paychecks will have a more immediate impact on their consumption. Falling oil prices may bring some relief at the petrol pump, but gauges of chain-stores’ sales suggest that consumer spending is flagging. Under such circumstances, the government is right to take bold steps. But even interventions on the scale of Mr Paulson’s may not be enough to raise people’s sagging spirits.

此外，即使财政部有了这次接管，经济前景仍然非常黯淡。财政刺激计划的提振作用逐渐减弱，劳动力市场恶化，消费者的麻烦正在上升。失业率在八月份上升到6.1％。随着资产价格的下跌和紧缩的信贷使消费者的借贷更难，失去工资立即会对他们的消费能力有巨大的影响。下跌的油价会对汽油的消费稍有缓解，但是连锁店销售量的下跌表明消费者的消费能力在萎缩。在这样的环境下，政府必须迅速采取大胆的行动。即使如保尔森这样的举动也不足以提升人们的低迷的精神。

译者：rushor    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13966&extra=page%3D1