Economics focus
经济聚焦
Reserve army of underemployed
剩余劳动力后备军
Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Is China’s pool of surplus labour drying up?
中国大量的剩余劳动力用完了吗？
WHAT is the single most important price in the world? Popular answers are the price of oil, American interest rates or the dollar. Yet Chinese wages are, arguably, more important. China has by far the world’s biggest labour force, of around 800m-almost twice that of America, the European Union and Japan combined. Thus recent claims that it is running short of cheap labour would, if true, have huge consequences not just for China, but also for the rest of the world.
哪一个价格是是世界上最重要的价格？通常的答案会是石油价格，美国利率或者美元的价格。然而，按理说，劳动力的价格更加重要。中国拥有目前世界最大的劳动人口，大约8亿–几乎是美国，欧盟和日本劳动力总和的两倍。因此最近中国廉价劳动力短缺的说法如果正确，不仅对中国，而且对整个世界其它地方都有着巨大的影响。
A seemingly unlimited supply of cheap workers has been one of the main forces behind China’s rapid economic growth. But over the past couple of years, factory owners have complained of labour shortages and wages have risen more rapidly, leading some to conclude that China’s “surplus” labour has been used up. The country’s one-child policy, introduced in 1979, has caused the growth in its labour supply to slow sharply (see chart). After rising by 1.3% a year during the decade to 2005, the population of working age is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7% until 2015, and then shrink by 0.1% a year until 2025. At the same time, the shift of workers from agriculture to industry, which has been an important source of productivity gains, will also slow. Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, reckons that these two trends will reduce China’s sustainable growth rate from 9-9.5% today to 7-7.5% by 2025.
几乎源源不断的廉价劳动力是中国经济快速增长背后的重要力量。但在过去的两三年内，工厂老板开始抱怨劳动力的短缺以及工资的快速上涨，这使得有人得出中国”剩余”劳动力已经用光的结论。中国从 1979年开始实施的计划生育政策使得其劳动力的增长急剧下降（如图所示）。在经历了1995到2005年十年每年1.3％的增长率之后，劳动年龄人口在 2005年到2015年预计年增长率会是0.7％，而且还会以每年0.1％的速度下降直到2025年。于此同时，作为生产力增加的重要源泉–进城打工的农民工的人数也会减少。瑞银集团的经济学家Jonathan Anderson预计，这两种趋势会使中国持续的增长率从今天的9-9.5％降低到2025年的7-7.5％。
But as well as boosting growth, the flow of workers from farms to factories has held down manufacturing wages-not only in China, but also throughout the world. The theory behind this was first expounded by Sir Arthur Lewis, an economist from St Lucia, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 1979. He argued that a developing country with “surplus” (ie, underemployed) rural labour could expand industrial employment for many years without causing wage inflation, because employers enjoy such a large supply of labour. During the first 50 years of Britain’s industrial revolution, real wages remained more or less flat while profits soared. Likewise in China, as millions of migrants have quit the countryside for urban factories and construction sites, the real wages of low-skilled workers barely rose during the 1980s and 1990s, despite big productivity gains; only recently have they increased rapidly.
但是进城的农民工不仅推进了经济的增长，而且降低了制造业的工资–不仅是在中国，而是整个世界。这个理论是由1979年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，St Lucia的经济学家Arthur Lewis爵士最先详细阐述。他认为一个拥有”剩余”（即，为充分就业的）劳动力的发展中国家可以在很多年内扩大工业就业而不增加工资，因为雇主可以享受很大的劳动力供给。在英国工业革命的头50年里，实际工资几乎保持不便但是于此同时利润却飙升。中国也是一样，随着数以百万计的农民工进入城市工厂或者建筑工地，这些低技能的工人在上世纪80年代和90年代的实际工资几乎没有增长，但是老板却获得巨大的收益。直到近些年他们的工资才开始快速增长。
This acceleration of wages has prompted some to conclude that China’s surplus labour in the countryside has been used up. Last year Cai Fang, the director of the Institute of Population and Labour Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argued that China has reached the “Lewis turning point”. By 2009, he predicted, there would be a widespread shortage of workers, pushing up industrial wages. Does this mean the death of China’s growth model?
工资的加速上涨使得某些人得出结论，中国农村的剩余劳动力已经用完了。中国社会科学院人口和劳动经济研究所主任蔡昉认为，中国已经达到”刘易斯转折点”。他预计到2009年将会有广泛的劳动力短缺，从而推高工人工资。难道这意味着中国增长模式的终结吗？
As so often in China, this debate is clouded by the poor data. Until recently, most estimates of surplus labour varied between 150m and 200m people. But the true figure is probably much smaller, because government figures for the rural labour force include millions of migrants who have already moved to cities and others who work in rural industry, not farming.
这次讨论同样受到低质量数据的影响，这在中国很普遍。到目前为止，许多对中国剩余劳动力的估计都在1.5亿到2亿之间。但是实际数字可能比这少很多，因为政府的农村劳动力数据包括数以百万已移居城市的人口和许多已不务农而是在农村工厂工作的人。
In addition the population is ageing: the number of workers aged between 20 and 29 fell from 233m in 1990 to 165m in 2005. Many textile and electronics firms hire only young women in their 20s, as they are thought to be less troublesome and more willing to work long hours. Construction firms favour young single men. Older people are not only less employable, but they are also typically less willing to migrate if they have children. After taking account of this, Mr Cai estimates that China’s surplus labour has been virtually exhausted.
另外，中国人口也在老龄化：20到29岁的劳动人口从1990年的2.33亿降到2005年的1.65亿。许多纺织品和电子工厂雇佣20多岁的年轻女性，因为她们很少有麻烦事而且愿意工作很长时间。建筑企业喜欢雇用单身年轻男子。年龄大的人不仅不是很称职，而且他们大多因为有孩子而不愿意外出打工。将这些都考虑进去后，蔡先生中国剩余的劳动力实际上已经用完。
But Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, thinks that talk of China’s vanishing labour surplus is premature. In a report this year he argued that the surplus would not run out for another decade. Although the number aged between 20 and 29 fell over the past decade, their ranks are now rising again. Using the 2005 census, Mr Green estimates that the 20-something group will increase by a third in the ten years to 2015, as baby-boomers’ children join the workforce (see right-hand chart); only then will it start shrinking sharply.
但是渣打银行的经济学家Stephen Green认为中国剩余劳动力归零的说法过早了。在今年的一份报告里他认为剩余劳动力在下一个十年内还不会用完。虽然20到29岁的人口在过去十年内下降，但是现在又开始上升了。用2005年的人口普查数据，Green先生估计随着生育高峰期的孩子进入劳动力市场，20多岁的人数会在到2015年的十年内增长三分之一（如右图所示）。从那时起才开始急剧的下降。
What is more, the recent spurt in urban wages is not necessarily proof that the surplus has gone. Mr Green argues that to attract migrant workers, urban employers have to pay more than rural income, which has increased in recent years, thanks to government policies and higher food prices. The temporary increase in the age group between 20 and 29 over the next few years will also ease the upward pressure on urban pay.
而且，最近城市工资的上涨并不必然证明剩余劳动力已经没有了。Green先生认为，为了吸引农民工进城，城里的老板需要付比农村收入要高的工资，而由于政府的政策和高涨的食品价格，农村收入这几年里上升不少。20到29岁的劳动人口在未来几年暂时的增加将会减缓城市工资的上涨压力。
Go East, young women
到东部去，年轻的姑娘们
The World Bank agrees that China’s labour surplus has not yet run out. Even when the number of young people drops, the labour supply is determined by more than demographics. Migrant workers are usually excluded from urban social-security schemes and have to pay more for education and health care. The bank suggests that phasing out the household-registration system would encourage more people to move to the city. Vocational training for rural residents aged over 30 would equip them better for jobs in industry. And financial incentives to encourage workers to retire later could also boost the labour supply: only 60% of men and 30% of women aged over 50 have jobs.
世界银行同意中国剩余劳动力还没有用完的说法。尽管年轻人数量在下降，但是劳动力供给不仅仅由人口特征决定。进城务工者被排除在社保体系之外，而且需要为教育和医疗支付更多的钱。世界银行建议逐步消除户口制度会使更多的人进城。对30岁以上农民的职业培训会使他们更好地胜任工厂里的工作。而且对于推迟退休工人的财政激励也会提高劳动力供给：只有60％的男子和30％的女子在50最后还有工作。
Moreover, Mr Cai’s estimate of China’s labour surplus assumes that 180m workers, or 24% of total employment, are needed for farming. But that is based on today’s agriculture. Mechanisation and the consolidation of land plots will boost productivity, meaning that fewer farmers will be needed. That will in turn release more workers for industry. In developed countries only 3% of workers till the land.
此外，蔡先生对中国剩余劳动力的预计是假设农业人口需要1.8亿（占总就业人数的24％）。但是这是基于现在的农业水平。机械化和小块土地的整合会提升生产力，意味着需要更少的农民。这样就为工业提供了更多的工人。在发达国家只有3％的劳动力从事农业生产。
China’s surplus labour will eventually dry up, but it still seems some years away. In any case, that moment should be cause for cheer not fear in China and elsewhere, because it will lead to bigger gains in income and consumption. That, after all, is the whole point of development.
中国的剩余劳动力终有会用完的一天，但是仍需时日。无论如何，那个时刻对于中国和其它地方来说是值得庆贺的事情而不是值得害怕的事情，因为那会引起更高的工资收入和更高的消费。这毕竟才是发展的全部意义。
译者：rushor http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13791&extra=page%3D1
译文对比阅读：http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13794&pid=86650&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid86650