[2008.08.23] 美国总统竞选:前路漫漫

The American presidential race

The hard road ahead

Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition

Barack Obama still has a lot to do

ON AUGUST 28th, barring some dark manoeuvre by seething Clintonistas, Barack Obama will accept the Democratic nomination for the presidency. Forty-five years to the day after Martin Luther King spoke of his dream, America will take a giant leap towards the realisation of that great call for justice. Hundreds of millions will watch, and be moved; Mr Obama seems to many, by reason of his race, his calm intelligence, his youthful good looks and his powerful oratorical skills, to be well suited to draw a line beneath the bitter Bush years and to repair America’s torn relationship with the outside world. One prominent pundit was much derided earlier this year for describing the tingle he got from listening to the candidate-but everyone knew exactly what he meant.
除非一些克林顿主义者暗中下绊,巴拉克奥巴马仍然会于8月28日接受民主党内的总统候选人提名。在马丁路德金发表关于梦想的演讲45年后的今天,美国向着他所呼唤的正义的方向又迈进了一大步。数百万人会目睹这一时候, 也一定会深深地受到震动.因为其自身的种族,冷静的智慧,年轻俊朗的外表,强有力的演说技巧,对于很多人来说,奥巴马是与辛酸的布什时代划清界线,修复美国与外部世界裂痕的合适人选。今年早些时候,某位著名专家说他听候选人演讲时的感受到某种刺痛感,他本人因此深受嘲笑——但所有人都知道他到底想说什么。

This moment comes as much through perspiration as through inspiration. Mr Obama’s achievement in defeating the Clinton machine was monumental. Hillary Clinton started out as the overwhelming favourite, with the Democratic Party establishment, not to mention its big-ticket donors, squarely behind her and poll leads that sometimes topped 20 percentage points. But Mr Obama ran a brilliant campaign, using the internet to harness the energy and the donations of an army of volunteers, and deploying them with tactical skill in almost every state. He managed the firestorm touched off by his intemperate pastor, Jeremiah Wright, with dignity and, eventually, ruthlessness.

When it comes to the issues, it is hardly surprising that The Economist is less impressed. Mr Obama’s tilt towards protectionism during the primary campaign was both wrong and dangerous. So was his insistence on denying funds to the “surge” that has worked so well (if belatedly) in Iraq, and his determination to withdraw troops from the conflict according to a rigid timetable. We are nervous about his incentive-destroying willingness to raise taxes sharply on the well-off, and of the cost implications of many of his policies. But we recognise that his positions have evolved as the campaign has moved from the primary stage, where politicians have to outdo each other in their appeal to their party faithful, to the general election. Were he to become president, they would move further to the centre again. And policies are by no means the whole story of an American election: character and leadership matter greatly, too. Mr Obama is an impressive nominee with the potential to be a fine president.

Democratic doubts

But the road to the White House is still a hard one. Even though the Republican brand is as contaminated as a Soviet-era reactor, and 80% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, Mr Obama is barely ahead of his septuagenarian Republican rival. He is less popular than his party as a whole: in “generic” polling, people prefer Democrats to Republicans by around 12 points, but Mr Obama is ahead of John McCain by an average of only around 45% to 43%. One poll this week had Mr McCain five points ahead. The presidential debates, which will start next month, usually sway a lot of voters. Mr Obama is generally held to have lost his only encounter so far with Mr McCain, in back-to-back interviews with Rick Warren, an evangelical pastor, on August 16th. In the battleground states which will determine the result, Mr McCain has steadily been gaining ground; if the polls are borne out, the result, as in 2000 and 2004, will be nerve-janglingly close.
但是通往白宫之路仍然很艰难.虽然共和党这块牌子已经如同苏联核电站一样臭,80%的美国人认为这个国家走在错误的道路上.奥巴马却并没有领先他那年已古稀的竞争对手多少.他并没有像他的党派作为一个整体那么受欢迎:在民调中,民主党的支持率比共和党高12%左右,但奥巴马与麦凯恩的支持率大概为45%和 43%.本周的一次民调认为麦凯恩有5个百分点的领先优势.总统竞选辩论下个月就要开始了,它通常会影响许多选民的最终决定. 8月16日福音教派牧师里克沃伦主持的背靠背采访是迄今为止二人的唯一一次碰撞.舆论普遍认为,奥巴马在采访中略逊一筹.在那些会起最终决定作用,竞争激烈的州,麦凯恩在稳固地向前推进.如果民调准确的话,最终结果将和2000年和2004年一样,两位竞选人的差距会非常小.

Many Americans, including a dangerously large number of Democrats, still have their doubts about Mr Obama. Some see him as too young and inexperienced for a dangerous world; others find him unattractively self-regarding and aloof; still others question his patriotism. Many resent his apparent flip-flopping on important issues, like gun-control and whether or not to talk to Iran and Syria, as well as less important ones, like whether to wear a flag pin. His cynical breaking of a promise to be bound by federal campaign-finance limits was shabby by any standards. Perhaps the most damning criticism of him is that he has never exhibited political courage by daring to take on any of his party’s powerful interests, as his rival, John McCain, has done over many issues, including global warming, campaign-finance reform, immigration and torture.

Yes, he still can

From the moment of his coronation in Denver, Mr Obama will have 68 days to allay these doubts. There is not much he can do about his thin résumé or his lack of foreign-policy and security expertise, though he can mitigate the latter somewhat with an astute choice of running mate. And it is a bit late now for principled stands in the Senate. Mr Obama could certainly tone down the triumphalism: opting to make his acceptance speech not in the convention hall but in a 75,000-seater sports stadium seems like another mistake, akin to his hubristic rock-star’s tour of Europe. He needs to be a lot clearer and firmer about how he will deal with America’s foes and rivals: his first instinct when Russia invaded Georgia was to waffle. Acknowledging that the Iraq surge, which he tried to block, has worked would also be a sign of tough-mindedness.
从他在丹佛接受提名的那一刻起,奥巴马有68天的时间来缓解这些疑虑.对于贫乏的履历和在外交安全事务方面经验的缺乏,恐怕他也做不了什么(虽然说他可以通过精心挑选竞选伙伴来弥补经验问题).在参议院事务中表明立场现在看起来也有点迟.但奥巴马可以做到低调一点:把他发表提名演讲的地点选在有75000 个座位的体育场而不是民主党会议大厅可以说是他的又一个错误,与他那哗众取宠的欧洲之行非常相似.他需要在如何面对美国问题和对手上更加明确,更加坚定:俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚时他的第一反应是唠叨.承认他曾经想阻止的伊拉克速增计划卓有成效,能够体现他的坚强品质.

Most of all, he needs to spend those 68 days showing that he understands, and can connect with, ordinary Americans. The economy ought to be the Democrats’ trump card, just as security tends to be the Republicans’. But some of the most surprising recent polls show that Mr Obama is rated lower by voters on how he would handle the economy than is Mr McCain, who has admitted that he doesn’t know much about the subject. That may be because Mr Obama often sounds curiously disconnected from the troubles of anyone except America’s very poorest. Mrs Clinton was much better at empathising with middle America, and Mr Obama needs to show he has learnt from her.

That could also help heal the wounds of the Democratic Party, which, after the bitter contest and Mr Obama’s narrow victory, are still raw. If the Democrats remain divided they will lose the presidency. Were that to happen, after Iraq, Katrina and an economic crisis, they might well want to consider an alternative line of work.

译者:xsj191   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13577&extra=page%3D1


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