[2008.08.16] 东欧经济：将近曲终人散时

East European economies
东欧经济

The party is nearly over
将近曲终人散时

Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

After a good run, Eastern Europe faces an economic slowdown
东欧经济在经历一轮高速增长后行将面临放缓局面。

IT HAS gone on splendidly for years, and the party isn’t quite finished yet. For a decade or more eastern Europe has benefited from exceptional (and mostly unforeseen) good fortune. Economic and political stability, including for ten countries membership of the European Union, has boosted investors’ confidence and cut borrowing costs. A big pool of cheap and diligent workers, along with the unleashing of entrepreneurial talents, has produced thriving new private businesses. In most countries, growth rates have been stellar.
数年以来，这个派对精彩纷呈。目前为止，它尚未完全结束。十多年来，东欧经济不断受到好运的眷顾（其中的大多数都是未曾预料到的）。政治、经济稳定，十个国家都是欧盟成员国，这一局势增强了投资者的信心，减少了贷款开支；大量高素质的廉价劳动力，还有不断展现出来的创业才能，这些都催生出了繁荣的新兴私人企业。在多数东欧国家，经济增长率始终引人瞩目。

Inevitably, it could not last. Wage costs are creeping up. Labor shortages are biting. Out-of-date infrastructure, such as Poland’s notorious roads, is clogging trade. In several countries inflation is rising. And world markets, both for raising capital and for exporting, are looking tougher. In the face of all this, growth this year has been surprisingly strong. That is partly because the euro-area slowdown has only just started; partly because domestic demand has been rising; and partly because intra-east European trade has started to make up for softer exports westwards.
这种局面无法永久地持续下去，这是必然的。工资支出逐渐增加。劳动力短缺形势严峻。基础设施年久失修，比如波兰那众所周之的糟糕路况正阻碍着贸易的发展。数个国家正出现通货膨胀。世界的融资市场和出口市场的形势也更加严峻。面临这种种局面，东欧地区今年的经济增长一直令人吃惊的强劲。这其中原因有三：1. 欧元区的经济放缓才刚刚开始；2.东欧国家的国内需求一直在攀升；3.东欧国家之间的贸易已经开始填补已显疲态的对西欧的出口贸易。

The big exceptions are the Baltic countries of Estonia and Latvia, home to colossal current-account deficits and breakneck飞速惊险的 growth in recent years. Now their bubbles have popped. In Latvia, for example, retail sales fell in June by 8.3% on a year earlier; industrial production is down by 6.4%. The construction industry has imploded. Inflation remains high at a whopping 17%. For a country with a pegged currency, that is scary. Yet the gloomiest predictions have so far proved unfounded. For example, Latvia has not been forced to devalue. The foreign banks, mainly Swedish, that own most of the financial system seem largely untouched by the credit crunch elsewhere in the world. And there is no sign of the contagion spreading from the troubled (but tiny) economies of the Baltic to the rest of the region.
波罗的海沿岸的两个国家爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚是一个很大的例外。这两个国家近年来是大规模经常项目赤字以及飞速增长的发源地。现在，两国的经济泡沫已经破灭。例如，同去年同期相比，今年拉脱维亚六月份的零售额下跌了8.3%；工业产品销售额下降了6.4%。建筑行业瞬间崩塌。通胀率仍然高达17%。对于一个采用挂钩货币的国家来说，这是极为恐怖的。然而到目前为止，最为悲观的预言被证实是站不住脚的。譬如，拉脱维亚并没有被迫对货币进行贬值。掌控该国金融系统大半江山的外资银行（多为瑞典银行）并未因为世界其他地区出现紧缩信贷而受到较大影响。也没有迹象表明波罗的海地区波动的经济局面会向周边地区扩散。

In the biggest economy, Poland, things look better. Growth in the first quarter of 2008 was a sprightly 6.1% on a year earlier. Many Poles who left to work in Britain and Ireland are coming home, tempted by higher wages. Unemployment, which was 20% in 2003, has all but vanished in most parts of the country. But growth is now likely to slow, particularly if interest rates keep rising: they were 4% in 2007 and are 6% now, with another rise likely. That will strengthen the zloty further; it has risen against the euro. That may be a reason why Poles are returning from Britain, but it hurts Polish exporters.
在最大的经济体波兰，情况较为乐观。与去年同期相比，2008年第一季度增长强劲，达到6.1%。许多波兰人之前曾前往英国、爱尔兰工作。现在，由于国内工资水平较高，他们又都纷纷回到波兰。2003年，波兰的失业率为20%；现在，在全国的大部分地区几乎不存在失业问题。但是现在该国的经济有可能会放缓。尤其是如果国内的利率持续上升，那么这种可能性就会加大：2007年，国内利率为4%，目前则达到6%，而且还有可能继续上升。这会使兹罗提更加坚挺；兹罗提（波兰货币单位名称）兑欧元的汇率已经上升。这可能是波兰人从英国返乡的一个原因，但这对出口商却是不利的。

Critics say the government should now do more to reform public finances财政, especially pensions, and get big infrastructure projects going, before a contraction in the labour force kicks in during the next decade. That would also improve the country’s chances of joining the euro, which it now seems unlikely to do before 2013. So far, Slovenia has adopted the single currency and Slovakia will do so next year. No other country looks close.
批评人士认为政府现在应该加大对财政的改革，尤其是在养老金这一方面；而且劳动力短缺的影响会在未来十年内中显现出来，因此应当在此之前着手实施大型的基础设施建设工程，而这也将会增加该国加入欧元区的机会。就目前来看，波兰要在2013年之前加入欧元区的可能性并不大。到目前为止，斯洛文尼亚已经采用了单一货币，斯洛伐克将在下一年采取同样的举措。近期内其他国家都不会有所动作。

The biggest worry is Hungary, which is the country most dependent on the continuing confidence of the capital markets. A shaky government has done surprisingly well in restoring macroeconomic stability after the near-disastrous spending and borrowing splurge in the early years of this decade. The budget deficit reached a yawning 9.4% of GDP in 2006; Neil Shearing of Capital Economics, a consultancy, reckons it may be down to as little as 3.5% by the end of 2008.
最大的担忧来自匈牙利。该国对资本市场持续的信心最为依赖。在上世纪90年代，匈牙利近乎灾难性的大肆挥霍和向外借款。在这之后，一个不稳定的政府重新恢复了宏观经济的稳定性，其效果之好，令人惊异。2006年，财政预算亏空占GDP的比例高达9.4%；来自资本经纪公司（一家咨询公司）的内尔•希尔林认为到2008年底，这一数字将缩小至3.5%。

This has come at a heavy price, both in the government’s rising unpopularity and in a near economic standstill last year. The economy has picked up a bit since then, but inflation remains troubling at over 6%. The question is whether the government has the stomach for another round of fiscal tightening. Public spending is still over 50% of GDP, the highest in the region. A further worry is the looming slowdown in the richer half of the continent. The Hungarian economy depends heavily on exports to western Europe, which account for nearly 40% of GDP.
实现这一局面的代价是沉重的：政府的支持率不断下降，而且去年该国经济增长近乎停滞。在这之后，经济虽有所起色，但是通胀率仍居高不下，始终高于6%。问题在于，该国政府是否还有能力承受新一轮的财政紧缩。公共开支在GDP中所占的比例仍然超过50%，是东欧地区中最高的。更进一步的担忧在于经济放缓也在向欧洲大陆较为富裕的区域迫近。匈牙利经济在很大程度上依赖于对西欧国家的出口贸易，该项贸易额占该国GDP的近40%。

Despite the EU’s worries about corruption and organised crime in its newest (and poorest) members, Romania and Bulgaria, their economies have been growing fast at around 7-8% a year. They are now leading candidates for a hard landing. A property bubble in Bulgaria seems to be on the verge of bursting, though this has still to filter through to the rest of the economy. Yet for now, few seem worried. Having dodged sanctions from Brussels (not fully in the case of Bulgaria), politicians in the Balkans seem to think that defying the laws of economic gravity is a cinch.
欧盟对于其新成员罗马尼亚和保加利亚的腐败问题和有组织的犯罪问题虽心存担忧，但是两国经济保持在大约每年7-8%的增长速度。现在两国正引导着候选人进行硬着陆。虽然保加利亚的资产泡沫仍将渗入该国经济的其他领域，但是它看似正处在破灭的边缘。但到目前为止，很少有人对此表示担忧。避开了来自位于布鲁塞尔的欧盟总部的制裁后（在此案中保加利亚并未完全避开）巴尔干半岛的政客们似乎认为做出违背经济规律的事是轻而易举的。

译者：zhs2046    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13387&extra=page%3D1