[2008.07.12] 亚洲视点：自负的印度

Asia.view
亚洲视野

Overconfident India
自负的印度

Jul 9th 2008
From Economist.com

Indians are complacent about the perils of multi-lateral diplomacy, and much else
如今的印度人沾沾自喜，看不到多边外交的危险性，对于其它许多事情也同样如此。

IT CAME like monsoon rain, after a head-aching spell of summer heat. On July 7th, ending months of mixed messages and tiresome speculation, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, said that India would press ahead “very soon” with a controversial policy: a civil-nuclear co-operation agreement with America.

就像是在夏季经历了一段令人头昏脑胀的炙热天气之后，突然下了一阵季雨。7月7日，印度总理曼莫汉•辛格终结了数月来甚嚣尘上的种种令人喜忧参半的讯息以及惹人生厌的猜测，他说印度会”即刻”推行一项备受争议的政策：即与美国达成在民用核能领域开展合作的协议。

This would give India access to nuclear fuel and technology, despite its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In a country with massive energy needs, and pretensions to global-power status, that would be momentous. Only, the deal is not yet done: it needs approving by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and America’s Congress. Winning their blessings before President George Bush’s term expires next January will be tight.

这份协议将给予印度使用核燃料和核技术的权力，尽管该国拒绝签署《核不扩散条约》。在这样一个能源需求巨大，自命为世界大国的国家中，这份协议的意义极其重大。只是该协议尚未完成：它需要得到联合国国际原子能机构，拥有45个成员国的核供应国集团（NSG）以及美国国会的批准。在乔治•布什总统明年1月份离任之前要赢得他们的许可并不是件容易的事情。

Not that you would necessarily know this from Indian media coverage of the saga. Most Indian commentators-including those within the ruling Congress party-appear to have concluded that, now that Mr Singh has plumped for it, despite opposition from his government’s parliamentary allies, the deal is a dead-cert.

但是从印度媒体对此事的报道中你不一定能了解到这些事情。包括执政的国大党内部的许多印度评论员似乎已经得出结论：尽管辛格政府在议会中的盟友反对这一协议，然鉴于辛格总理本人已表态支持，这项协议已是铁板钉钉的事了。

They may turn out to be right. Mr Bush will certainly push hard for it. But with several other NSG members having expressed concerns, and the attitude of China, India’s great rival, still unknown, the deal’s safe passage cannot be assumed. Then again, it is unsurprising that so many Indians do assume it. A pronounced feature of their country’s rapid emergence is the awesome self-confidence-and sometimes hubris-it inspires in Indian breasts.

他们的想法或许会被证明是正确的。为了该协议获得通过，布什自然会不遗余力。但是核供应国集团中已有几位成员国对此表示忧虑，印度最大的对手中国的态度还不明朗，所以不能假定说该协议会安全通过。然而又一次，如此多的印度人的确认为它会安全通过，这并不令人惊讶。印度快速崛起的一个显著特征就是它激发了印度人胸中令人敬畏的自信心，有时就显得骄傲自大了。

No visitor to the country can fail to be impressed by this. Its English language newspapers-admittedly, read mainly by a prospering minority-would never let them. They have long tended towards triumphalism-notwithstanding more sober recent headlines, inspired by high inflation and a plunging stockmarket. Thus, the latest foreign acquisition by “India Inc.”, as the country’s private sector is known, is a sure-fire splash. On editorial pages, Indian economists have long predicted China-style, double-digit economic growth for their country.

到过印度的访客没有哪一位不对此印象深刻。印度的英文报纸（诚如，他们的读者群主要是少数活得有滋有味的人士）肯定会让这些访客感受到印度人爆棚的自信心。长期以来这些报纸都倾向于必胜主义，虽然最近高企的通胀率和下跌的股市让报纸的头条清醒了许多。因此，”印度公司”（印度的私营行业就是这样被称呼的）最近进行的海外并购势必会激起一片叫好声。在社论版，印度的经济学家长期以来一直预测说印度的经济会同中国一样，双位数增长。

Opinion polls-which tend to represent the views of relatively-rich city-dwelling Indians-also make rousing news. A survey of global attitudes, released last month by the Pew Research Centre, found that a higher proportion of Indians felt positive about their national economy than all except Chinese and Australians (though the proportion of sunny Indians, at 62%, was 12% down on the previous year).

往往倾向代表印度相对富裕的城市居民观点的民意调查也发来了令人振奋的消息。上个月Pew 研究中心发布的一次全球民调显示，印度人当中对于国民经济持乐观态度民众的比例高过其他国家，仅次于中国人和澳大利亚人（但是乐观的印度人所占的比例为 62%，这比上一年下降了12个百分点）

Indeed, they have had lots to be cheered by. Over the past three years, India’s economy has grown at a magnificent average of 9% a year. And the private sector-whose foreign investments last year exceeded those made in India by foreign firms-has led the charge.

的确，印度人有许多事情值得庆祝。在过去三年间，印度经济年平均增长速度达到了令人炫目的9%。私营行业去年的对外投资超过了外商在印度的投资，他们已成为经济增长的引领者。

As has been widely reported, the fruits of India’s economic rise are rich and varied. The country’s massive armed forces are modernising. The diplomatic corps is swelling. India’s revered cricketers, who were never so rich and pampered, are doing consistently better than they have ever done before.

正如广泛报道的那样，印度经济崛起的成果可谓丰富多彩。庞大的军队正步入现代化。外交使团的人数剧增。印度备受尊崇的板球运动员从来没有像现在这般富有，集万千宠爱于一身。如今他们的表现要比以前好得多，而且能做到始终如一。

But, impressive as these successes are, they do not augur the imminent global dominance that many Indians seem to expect. Foreign visitors to India are also invariably impressed by its dreadful problems: the ever-present poor; perilous and congested roads; disorderly and congested airports; the moronic regulations still imposed by the state.

这些成功之处固然令人印象深刻，但是他们并非如许多印度人似乎期许的那样，预示着印度即将在世界上居于支配地位。印度许多可怕的问题也总是会给造访的外国人留下难以磨灭的印象：无时不在的穷人; 危险而拥塞的道路，杂乱拥挤的机场以及政府依旧实施的各类鲁钝的管制。

So, what makes Indians so buoyant? Perhaps, relief: that the dark decades of soaring population growth, inching economic growth and intractable poverty, are finally over. No doubt, too, some prominent Indians are a little naive about the realities of multi-lateral diplomacy and ill-informed about the paths to development that others have trod. With little opportunity to travel, and a whole world within their borders, Indians have tended, until relatively recently, to be rather inward-looking-unlike the country’s vast and thriving diaspora.

那么究竟是什么让印度人如此信心满怀？或许是一种宽慰感：在过去黑暗的数十年间印度人口增长迅猛，经济增长缓慢，贫穷根深蒂固，现在这一切终于一去不复返了。无疑，一些杰出的印度人对于多边外交活动的现实情况显得有点单纯无知，对于别国走出的发展路径也不甚明了。印度人很少有机会出外旅行，一直以来都是在本国境内走动，直至近来，他们都显得相当保守内向。这与印度庞大兴旺的海外移民形成鲜明对照。

Perhaps, too, there may be something about living always in a crowd that encourages loud and overconfident opinion-giving. Or maybe, in their national subconscious, Indians have calculated that audacity, however unfitting at the time, simply works for them. It is certainly a feature of their brilliant entrepreneurism: another national characteristic-exhibited in teeming slums as well as in corporate boardrooms.

或许这也与总是生活在一个提倡说出自负观点的人群中有关。或许在其民族潜意识中，印度人已经算计出大胆厚颜虽然不合时宜，但对他们来说很有效果。这也是印度人卓越的企业家精神的一大特征：这是印度人又一个民族特性。这种特性在公司的董事会以及拥挤的贫民窟中一览无遗。

As for the nuclear deal, Indians’ blithe faith in its chances may stem from something else altogether. The Pew Research Centre found that Mr Bush’s approval rating in India was “still astonishingly high” at 55%. In fact, Indians were the only people sampled who rated Mr Bush more highly than they did Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy. So, perhaps they know something the rest of us don’t?

就这项核能合作协议而言，印度人对其成功的几率如此自信的原因或许源自别处。Pew 研究中心发现印度人对布什的支持率”依然高达55%，令人震惊”。事实上，在抽样调查的国家中，印度是唯一一个布什的支持率高过普京，默克尔和萨科齐的国家。或许他们知道一些我们不了解的事情？

译者：kevin.Ren    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12577&extra=page%3D1