[2008.07.12] 津巴布韦：风雨之后的纠结

Zimbabwe
津巴布韦

After the storm, the stalemate
风雨之后的纠结

Jul 10th 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

A negotiated end of the power struggle looks far off
权力斗争远未结束

THERE were more harsh words for Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, this week, as well as more promises of tough action against his regime following his re-election in a sham one-man run-off on June 27th. But, equally, there was also more evidence that the world remains divided-and often bitterly so-on what to do about him. The only person who profits from these divisions is Mr Mugabe himself.

在7月27日那次虚伪的”一人选举”中当选之后，津巴布韦总统罗伯特·穆加贝本周受到了众多尖锐的批评，还有很多人承诺要对他的政权采取强硬的行动。但是与此同时，也有很多证据显示，在对他采取什么行动的问题上，世界上仍然存在分歧，很多时候分歧还不小。只有一个人从这些分歧中受益，那就是穆加贝先生。

The Zimbabwean impasse figured high on the agenda of the G8 gathered in Japan. Prompted mainly by Britain’s prime minister, Gordon Brown, the rich-countries’ club, including Russia, heavily criticised the Zimbabwean election, saying that they would not accept the “legitimacy” of Mr Mugabe’s new government. The G8 promised to take “further steps” against 13 of Mr Mugabe’s inner circle who are responsible for organising most of the violence in the country. Targeted sanctions and an arms embargo were expected to be proposed at the UN Security Council. Some African countries, such as Botswana and Nigeria, also condemned the election. It is unfortunate that Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa, suffered a debilitating stroke last week; he had become one of Mr Mugabe’s most effective critics.

在日本举行的G8会议将解决津巴布韦的僵局放在议事日程的前面。在英国首相戈登·布朗的推动下，这个包括俄罗斯在内的富国俱乐部严厉批评了津巴布韦的选举，声称他们不会承认穆加贝先生的新政府的”合法性”。G8承诺将对穆加贝先生的13名心腹采取”进一步措施”，他们被认为组织了这个国家的大部分暴力活动。预计在联合国安理会上会有一项有针对性的制裁和武器禁运的提议。一些非洲国家，例如博茨瓦纳和尼日利亚，也在质疑选举。不幸的是，赞比亚总统利维·姆瓦纳瓦萨上周遭受了一次打击；他已经成为了穆加贝先生最有力的批评者之一。

But, again, several African countries objected to any further sanctions; South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki said that sanctions could lead to a civil war in Zimbabwe. And, despite Russia’s apparent show of unity at the G8, neither it nor China could be relied upon to back a strong resolution on sanctions at the UN. It is a familiar split. Instead, these countries insist that Mr Mbeki’s mediation efforts between Mr Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) be given more time to succeed-a process that some Western leaders have now lost patience with.

但是同时，几个非洲国家拒绝任何更进一步的制裁；南非总统塔博·姆贝基说，制裁会引发津巴布韦内战。而且，尽管俄罗斯表面上和G8保持一致，但是无论是它还是中国，在联合国都不会坚定支持制裁。这是个常有的分歧。相反，这些国家坚持要求给与更多的时间，使姆贝基先生在穆加贝先生和反对党”民主改革运动党 “（MDC）之间的调解能成功,而现在许多西方国家对此已经失去耐心。

Both sides say that they want to talk. But their positions still appear irreconcilable. The MDC insists that it will not participate in any proper negotiations unless violence stops, political prisoners are released, those who have fled violence are repatriated and humanitarian assistance is allowed to resume. Having lost faith in Mr Mbeki, the MDC also wants a full-time mediator from the African Union. It has rejected the idea of a government of national unity, but advocates a transitional administration based on the results of the first round of voting on March 29th-which it won-leading towards fresh elections. Mr Mugabe, for his part, insists that the opposition recognise his flawed re-election.

两边都宣传他们愿意谈判。但是看起来他们的立场还无法协调。MDC强调，要想它参与谈判，除非停止暴力活动，释放政治犯，接回在暴力事件中逃离的人，重新接受人道主义援助。MDC已经对姆贝基先生失去信心，它希望非盟派出一名全职的仲裁专使。它据绝了建立民族团结政府的提议，但是提倡建立一个过渡政府直到举行新的选举，过渡政府的建立要基于3月27日第一轮选举的结果，而MDC认为自己赢得了第一轮的选举。对穆加贝先生来说，他坚持要反对党承认他赢得了有 “问题”的选举。

A plan floated by Mr Mbeki before the run-off, which would leave Mr Mugabe as a ceremonial head of state and give the opposition executive power, appears to have little chance of success. The South African president, eager to show some progress in his faltering shuttle diplomacy, flew to Harare on July 5th and met Mr Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a small MDC splinter party. This raised some hopes. But the MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, resisting pressure from Mr Mbeki, stood his ground and refused to participate. Mr Mutambara later said that he attended the talks only because he thought Mr Tsvangirai was going to be there as well; Mr Mutambara insists that there will be no deal without the main MDC group.

姆贝基先生在最后一轮选举前实行的计划看上去没有可能成功了，这个计划提出让穆加贝先生担任国家元首，而把行政权交给反对党。这位南非总统，急于展示他在不断的穿梭外交中取得的一些成就。他在7月5日飞到哈拉雷，会见了穆加贝先生和阿瑟·穆塔马拉，后者是MDC的一个小派别的领袖。这带来了一些希望。但是 MDC的领袖莫根·茨万吉拉伊顶住了来自姆贝基先生的压力，坚持自己的立场，拒绝妥协。穆塔马拉先生稍后声称，他参加会谈仅仅是因为他认为茨万吉拉伊先生也将会来这里；穆塔马拉先生坚称，没有MDC的主要派别参与的话，不会达成什么协议。

In the meantime, political violence shows no sign of abating. According to the MDC, at least 20 activists have been killed since the run-off, bringing the total of confirmed deaths since the first round in March to over 100. Dozens of opposition supporters are still missing and 1,500 or so remain behind bars. This week, the body of an MDC driver abducted in Harare last month was finally found, burned and decomposing on a farm about 30km outside the capital. He had been tortured before being shot. Armed militias were also reported to have attacked two camps near Harare where people fleeing the violence had taken refuge after seeking shelter in the South African embassy.

同时，政治暴力没有缓和的迹象。按照MDC的说法，从最后一轮选举以来，至少有20名激进分子被杀，而从3月份第一轮选举以来被确认死亡的人数已经超过了 100。许多反对党支持者失踪，大约1500人还被关在监狱。本周，一名上个月被绑架的MDC司机的尸体在距离首都30km外的一个农场被找到，尸体有火烧的痕迹，已经开始腐烂。在被开枪打死之前，他受到了拷打。有报道说，武装民兵袭击了哈拉雷附近的两个难民营，住在这里的人是为了逃离暴力活动而往南非大使馆寻求避难，并接受他们的庇护。

Mr Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF also appears determined to reverse the majority that the opposition won in the National Assembly for the first time since the country’s independence in 1980. Besides results being contested in court, nine lawmakers from Mr Tsvangirai’s camp have been arrested or abducted since the first round of voting. The combined opposition holds 110 seats against ZANU-PF’s 97.

看起来，穆加贝先生领导的执政党ZANU-PF确实在国民大会中失去了多数党地位，这是1980年国家独立以来的第一次。自从第一轮投票以来，随着这个结果在法庭上引起争论，来自茨万吉拉伊先生先生阵营的9名法官被逮捕或者被绑架。反对党获得了110个席位，而ZANU-PF只有97个席位。

Mr Mugabe is unlikely to relent unless under serious, concerted pressure. But, as usual, it is hard to see exactly where that is going to come from. Even now, the wily Zimbabwean liberation hero seems to be outwitting his rivals, mediators and enemies in almost equal measure.

除非多方协调，认真的施加压力，穆加贝先生是不可能软化的。但是，和以前一样，很难清楚的看到压力来自何方。甚至在现在，这位老谋深算的津巴布韦解放英雄以几乎同样的方法，正在欺骗他的对手、仲裁者和敌人。

译者：zidance    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12607&extra=page%3D1