[2008.06.14]Richer but still nervous 富，并忧虑着

Algeria

阿尔及利亚

Richer but still nervous
富，并忧虑着

Jun 12th 2008 | CAIRO
2008年6月12日| 开罗
From The Economist print edition
摘自《经济学人》印刷版
来源：ECO论坛

Algeria should be enjoying its cash windfall more than it is
阿尔及利亚应当享受未曾享受的意外之财

CAN money buy happiness? For Algeria, the answer looks pretty clear. Ten years ago the huge, chronically turbulent but energy-rich country was in the depths of a hideous civil war. Aside from the violence that turned its cities into ghost towns and cost the lives of as many as 200,000 people, Algeria endured massive unemployment and a colossal foreign debt, the servicing of which ate up three-quarters of export earnings.
金钱能买到幸福吗？对阿尔及利亚而言，答复看似相当清楚。10年前，这个国土辽阔，长期动荡，但能源丰富的国家正处于恐怖的内战状态。阿尔及利亚国内的城市因这些暴力事件而成为废城，民众死亡数量更是高达20万。除此以外，阿尔及利亚还遭受了大规模的失业问题和数额极高的外债问题。国内出口收益的3/4用于解决这些问题。That debt has now dwindled almost to nothing, as foreign reserves, boosted by a windfall of cash from oil and gas sales, have mounted beyond $120 billion. Overall unemployment has shrunk to a manageable 12%. With the value of energy exports quadrupling since 2002 and expected to top $80 billion this year, the government has embarked on a giant spending programme that aims, among other things, to double power-generation capacity and to boost oil output by 50% within five years.
目前，众多债务几乎已减至为零。此皆归因于阿尔及利亚从石油和天然气的销售中获取意外横财，国内外汇储备已越过1200亿美元的大关。现在，阿尔及利亚国内的整体失业率下降到易于控制的12%。自2002年以来，能源的出口价值增至四倍，预计在今年将会超过800亿美元。随后，政府已开始实施耗费巨大的工程项目，尤其重要的是使国内的发电量增加一倍和石油产量在五年内提高50%。Come back, all is forgiven
前嫌不记，归来吧Investors, long spooked by Algeria’s toxic mix of lawlessness and business-repellent socialist laws, have returned in force. It is easy to see why. Egyptian and Qatari firms, for instance, have snapped up two-thirds of a mobile-telephone market whose subscriber base has shot up from 1.4m to 28m in just four years. The French chamber of commerce in Algiers says the number of French companies working there has tripled since 2004, with French direct investment, excluding the oil sector, reaching $233m in 2007.
投资者对阿尔及利亚国内目无法纪和企业排斥社会主义法律的混杂现象长期惊恐不安，现在已大规模地返回国内。至于原因则是显而易见。例如，埃及和卡塔尔企业抢占移动电话市场的2/3，用户数量在四年内从140万飞升到2800万。法国驻阿尔及尔商会表示在此工作的法国公司数量自2004年已增至三倍，法国的直接投资在2007年已达到2.33亿美元（不含石油部门）。

Still, Algeria’s troubles are hardly over. This week a French construction company, Razal, evacuated its foreign staff after a bomb killed two employees. The frequency of such attacks had dropped dramatically since the late 1990s, reflecting a fall in recruitment to Islamist guerrilla groups as well as the success of government policies that have matched broad amnesties for former militants with the beefing up of security forces.
然而，阿尔及利亚国内的问题仍是难以结束。在一颗炸弹致使二名雇员身亡后，法国建筑公司Razal本周撤空了公司内部的外国职员。自20世纪90年代末，袭击事件发生的频率已在显著下降，这反映出伊斯兰游击队组织成员受人招募的减少以及在安全部队的增援下，政府对前好战分子宽大赦免政策的成功。

But three devastating suicide bombings in the past year, along with the persistence of smaller-scale incidents that have taken an average of 20 lives a month since January, continue to feed anxieties. Few analysts expect a return to anything like the full-scale mayhem of the 1990s, largely because armed Islamist radicalism has lost much of its appeal. Many also discount the importance of a move, two years ago, by the main surviving guerrilla group to align itself formally with Osama bin Laden and rebrand itself as “al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”. The group’s switch from direct attacks on the security forces to suicide bombings and small-scale ambushes may be a sign of relative weakness.
不过，去年发生的三起毁灭性的自杀性爆炸事件，以及1月份以来每月平均有20人在小规模暴乱事件中遇害状况的持续，更是加剧了人们的忧虑。少数分析员认为诚如20世纪90年代的全面破坏行动正卷土而来，主要是因为伊斯兰武装激进主义失去了影响力。许多幸存下来的主要游击队组织在二年前同本・拉登正式结盟，重新标榜自己是“伊斯兰马格里布地区的基地组织”。多数分析员对此不予重视.从直接攻击安全部队转向策划自杀性爆炸事件和小规模埋伏行动或许就是游击队组织势力相对较弱的一个标志。

Yet while most Algerians are enjoying greater calm and better prospects, the underlying structural problems remain severe. Despite a veneer of political pluralism, popular disenchantment with a dirigiste state beholden to rival cliques of army officers and powerful bureaucrats is deep. Turnout for parliamentary elections, which were touted as democratic but have produced little change, fell from 45% in 2002 to 35% in 2007.
多数阿尔及利亚民众正在享受极其平静的美好时光和憧憬更为光明的未来。不过，阿尔及利亚国内潜伏的结构性问题却仍然比较严重。尽管阿尔及利亚奉行政治多元主义，但在一个受军官领导的反对帮派和权利强大的官僚主义者操纵的国家内，民众普遍不满依旧很深。出席自诩为民主但对国家带来极少变革的议会选举人数从2002年的45%下降到2007年的35%。

Among people under 30, who make up 70% of the population, anger at what they call la hogra, a sense of victimisation due to the government’s neglect and contempt, could turn explosive. A jobless rate for youths of 25% and a housing shortfall estimated by the government itself at some 1.5m homes are only part of the trouble. Serious riots that erupted in the past month were sparked in one case by ethnic tensions between Arabs and Berbers and in another because a football team was demoted to the second league. Many Algerians remember uncomfortably that the drift into civil war began, 20 years ago, when similar local riots started to spread across the country.
由于政府的忽视和轻视，低于30岁的人员（占人口总数的70%）对他们所说的受欺之感表现出的不满情绪将会急剧爆发。25%的青年失业率和政府估计的约150万间房屋的短缺只是国内问题的冰山一角。上月爆发的严重骚乱竟因阿拉伯人和柏柏尔人存在种族紧张局势和一个足球队被降格为第二球队两事引起。现在，许多阿尔及利亚人正不安地回想起，在20年前，在类似的地方暴乱开始蔓延全国各地之时，正是国家滑向内战的开始之日。