[2008.6.14] Such sweet sorrow 如此甜蜜的离别

Lexington
列克星顿

Such sweet sorrow
如此甜蜜的离别

Jun 12th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Europeans will not miss George Bush. But rebuilding the transatlantic relationship will not be easy
欧洲人是不会怀念乔治•布什的。然而重建大西洋两岸关系并不是一件容易的事。

IT WAS not difficult to distinguish between George Bush’s farewell visit to Europe this week and a victory lap. True, things have sometimes been even worse: back in 2003 he was greeted by some of the biggest protests in European history. But this time he was being greeted by sullen indifference. Mr Bush is worse than a failure in European eyes. He is yesterday’s failure.

乔治•布什本周在欧洲的告别之旅和运动员获胜后绕场一周还是有区别的，这一点不难看出。的确，一直以来的情形有时比这还要糟糕：2003年迎接他的是欧洲有史以来规模最大的抗议活动。但是这次欧洲人对他却是漠不关心。在许多欧洲人看来布什比失败者还要差劲，他如今不过是明日黄花。

Across the continent Bush hatred has been replaced by Obamamania. Barack Obama is playing the “good American” to Mr Bush’s ugly one-articulate where Mr Bush was cloth-tongued and cosmopolitan where Mr Bush was Texas-insular. Europeans are perhaps even more entranced than Americans by Mr Obama’s message of “change” and “hope”. They are also being forced to rethink some of their deepest prejudices about America. How can the land of “Stupid White Men” produce a Barack Obama? And how can Europe go on feeling quite so superior to America when it treats so many of its own minorities so badly? The French parliament has only one black person representing mainland France.

在整个欧洲大陆对布什的憎恶已经被一股奥巴马热所取代。此刻巴拉克•奥巴马扮演的是”正派的美国人”，而布什则是”丑陋的美国人”-布什口齿不清，而奥巴马则能言善道;布什犹如德克萨斯州一样狭隘且保守，而奥巴马则具有全球化之胸襟。欧洲人或许比美国人更醉心于奥巴马提出的口号：”变革”与”希望”。此刻他们也在被迫思考他们对美国一些根深蒂固的偏见。这个由”愚蠢的白人”组成的国度怎么出了位巴拉克•奥巴马这样的人物？当欧洲如此苛刻地对待自己如许多的的少数族群时，又怎么能继续感觉良好，觉得自己高美国一等呢？法国议会的大陆代表中可仅有一位黑人啊。

John McCain hardly enjoys Obama-like levels of enthusiasm. A new Pew poll shows that, in both France and Germany, only about 30% of people think that Mr McCain will do the “right thing” in foreign affairs compared with more than 80% for Mr Obama. But the Republican senator is still regarded as a huge improvement on Mr Bush. He has spent decades networking with European leaders, for example as a regular at the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy.

约翰•麦凯恩享有的关注度还不能与奥巴马比肩。Pew最新的一次调查显示：在德法两国，只有大约30% 的民众认为麦凯恩会在外交事务上做出”正确的事情”，相比之下，有80%的民众认为奥巴马会做出正确的抉择。但是比起布什，欧洲人认为这位共和党参议员已经是一个巨大的改善了。数十年来他一直在与欧洲的各位领导人拉关系，例如他是一年一度的慕尼黑安全政策会议上的常客。

Just as significant for the future of the alliance is that both candidates agree on the importance of reversing the collapse of America’s image in Europe. They are both determined to tackle three of its root causes-by banning torture, closing Guantánamo Bay and embracing a cap-and-trade policy on climate change. Here Mr McCain is proving himself, if anything, to be the bolder Atlanticist of the two, not only praising the relationship more loudly but also pitting himself against powerful groups within his own party, including the White House.
对于联盟未来同样具有重要意义的是，两位候选人都认为扭转美国在欧洲糟糕的形象非常重要。他们都下定决心要禁止美军虐囚，关闭关塔那摩基地，赞成采用总量管制与排放交易的政策应对气候变化，以此来铲除造成美国形象恶化的三种根源。在这一方面麦凯恩正在证明他自己是一位更无畏的大西洋主义者，如果说两位候选人真有什么不同的话。他不仅更加响亮地赞扬跨大西洋关系，而且一直与党内包括白宫在内的一些势力团体做较量。

The two senators will also inherit plenty of materials for bridge-building. The Bush administration has pursued a much more conciliatory policy since 2004. Indeed, Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush’s secretary of state, argues that, in some ways, the relationship is deeper than ever before: for the first time ever NATO forces are fighting outside the European theatre, in Afghanistan.

现任政府也会给两位参议员留下许多”搭桥”所需的材质。自2004年起布什政府一直采用一种更具抚慰性的政策。事实上，布什政府的国务卿康多莉扎•赖斯声称说，在有些方面，双边关系比以往任何时候都深厚：此刻北约军队正在欧洲战区之外（在阿富汗）战斗，这可是有史以来头一遭。

Two pro-Americans, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, have replaced the troublesome Gerhard Schröder and Jacques Chirac in Berlin and Paris. Mr Sarkozy has been particularly vocal in praising America and embracing a more pro-American position on Iraq and Iran (he argues that an Iranian nuclear bomb is “unacceptable”, for example). It is notable that when Mr Sarkozy visited Washington back in 2006 the only two people he found time to see on Capitol Hill were Messrs Obama and McCain.

在柏林和巴黎，安格拉•默克尔和尼古拉•萨科齐这两位亲美人士已分别取代了令人生厌的格哈德•施罗德与雅克•希拉克。萨科齐一直以来特别清晰无误地表明他对美国赞赏有加，在伊拉克和伊朗问题上他的立场也更加的亲美（例如他声称伊朗拥有核武是”不可接受的”）。值得注意的是当萨科齐在2006年访问华盛顿时，他能够腾出时间在国会山拜访的唯一的两个人就是奥巴马和麦凯恩。

The only worry is that things are looking a bit too good at the moment. The biggest danger for transatlantic relations now comes from out-of-control expectations-particularly where Mr Obama is concerned. Obamamania may be less of a problem than Bush derangement syndrome. But it contains the seeds of its own destruction. The world’s dictators will be less inclined to melt before Mr Obama’s charm than New England college professors. And, as the world’s only superpower, America has no choice but to continue to worship Mars as well as Venus.

令人唯一担忧的一点就是目前的情形看起来有点太好了。现在跨大西洋关系面临的最大的风险就是期待值有些失控了，尤其是一牵扯到奥巴马。与布什神经错乱综合症比较起来，奥巴马热似乎算不上什么问题。（译者注：布什神经错乱综合症，这一词语由美国专栏作家查尔斯•克劳萨默在２００３年发明，并很快在各种新闻渠道流传开来）但是它包含着让其自我毁灭的种子。世界上的独裁者们并非新英格兰身处象牙塔之中的教授，他们不会那么容易就被奥巴马的魅力所捕获。而且，作为当今世界唯一的超级大国，美国别无选择，它在崇拜金星的同时，还会继续推崇火星。（译者注：所谓”美国来自火星，欧洲来自金星”，指的是美国和欧洲在处理外交事务上不同的方式，欧洲侧重于合作，更加依赖国际组织，而美国则更愿意自行其是解决问题。）

Mr Obama gave a hint of possible future tensions with Europe in a speech he delivered to AIPAC hours after winning the nomination. He declared that “Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel” and that “it must remain undivided”. He dismissed the Palestinian “right of return” (“Israel’s identity as a Jewish state must be preserved”). He hedged on his promise to meet Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and declared that “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon; everything in my power; everything.”

奥巴马在获得提名数小时后在美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）发表了一篇演讲，在演讲中奥巴马暗示与欧洲的关系未来有可能依旧紧张。他宣称”耶路撒冷将依然是以色列的首都，它依然不可分割。”对巴勒斯坦人的”回归权利”，他不予置评（”以色列作为一个犹太国家的身份必须受到保护。”）。对他曾许下的要与伊朗总统艾哈迈迪•内贾德会面的诺言，他闪烁其词，并没有明确表态。他宣称说”我将做我职权范围内的任何事情来阻止伊朗获得核武器；我职权范围内的任何事情；任何事情。”（译者注：言下之意就是他并不排除使用武力，当然他这是迎合美国那些亲以色列的选民，这些人对美国政治，对大选的影响力不可小视。）

Plus ça change
换汤不换药

The speedy collapse of a cap-and-trade climate bill on June 6th also hinted at problems to come. The bill was the most ambitious to reach the Senate floor thus far, and enjoyed bipartisan support. But it collapsed without a single vote. Optimists argue that the bill is just a dry run for a successful push under a different president and with a different constellation of power in Congress. But pessimists rightly point out that Americans face a harder job adjusting to higher energy prices than Europeans, given their dependence on cars and taste for suburban living. Paris, Texas, is not Paris, France; $4-a-gallon petrol is already creating widespread angst. Any politician who promises ever-rising energy prices, even in a good cause, faces obliteration.

6月6号一份有关总量管制与排放交易的气候议案的迅速瓦解也暗示出麻烦将至。这是迄今为止呈报参议院审议的最具雄心的一份议案，而且它受到两党的一致支持。但它依然未经投票便”寿终正寝”。乐观主义者声称这份议案不过是为新总统上台，国会的权力格局重新安排之后成功通过做的一次演练而已。但是悲观主义者正确地指出，考虑到美国人对轿车的依赖性以及他们对郊区生活钟爱程度，对于日益高企的能源价格美国人比欧洲人更难适应。德州的巴黎并非法国之巴黎。（译者注：此巴黎非彼巴黎，有一部电影就叫《德州巴黎》）一加仑四美元的油价已经让民众怨声载道。任何一个承诺能源价格将节节攀升的政客，即使有正当的理由，也会落得个被扫地出门的下场。

Mr Obama’s views on trade could also spell problems for the relationship. In a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on June 9th he declared himself a free-trader. But in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries he saturated the airwaves with ads denouncing NAFTA for devastating entire American cities. He also favours tougher standards on labour and the environment in trade deals. Mr Obama feels about free trade exactly what most Americans feel about tackling climate change-it’s a great idea so long as it involves all gain and no pain.

奥巴马对贸易的观点也可能会给双边关系带来麻烦。6月9号在北卡罗来纳州的罗利市的一次演讲中，奥巴马宣称自已是一位自由贸易主义者。而在俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州的初选中，他将很多谴责北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）摧毁美国城市的广告充斥于电波之中。他也赞成在贸易协定中对劳工和环境采取更严苛的标准。奥巴马对自由贸易的感受正如大多数美国人对应对气候改变的感受一样-只要能”不劳而获”，就是个好主意。

The transatlantic relationship faces very different problems from the ones that plagued it in the Bush years. But it faces problems nonetheless. Avoiding disappointment will require a careful management of expectations from both sides. It will also require hard work. The American presidential candidates have already demonstrated that they are willing to invest in rebuilding the relationship. It is now up to the Europeans to produce some concrete suggestions of their own. They should not wait until January 2009 to get their act together.

大西洋两岸的关系如今面临的问题与布什政府时期困扰它的截然不同。但是尽管如此它还是有麻烦。要想避免失望就需要精心调控双边的期待值。这也需要艰苦地付出。美国总统候选人已经表露出他们愿意为重建双边关系投入时间与精力。现在到了欧洲人拿出他们自己切实的建议的时候了。他们不应该等到2009年1月份才把自己的事情料理妥帖。

译者：kevin.Ren  http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12104&extra=page%3D1