Russia’s odd couple
俄罗斯奇怪的一对

The Vladimir and Dmitry show
弗拉基米尔和德米特里的二人秀

Sep 17th 2009 | MOSCOW
From The Economist print edition

Vladimir Putin prepares the stage for his re-entry
弗拉基米尔•普京筹划重新上台

TO SEE Russia’s two leaders in quick succession is instructive. The more so if the issue is which should run for president in 2012, when Dmitry Medvedev’s current term expires. Vladimir Putin, tanned and muscular, positively twinkled as he told the Valdai club of foreign academics and commentators over lunch on September 11th that “we will reach an agreement. We understand each other. We are people of one blood, with the same political views…We will look at economic and political factors, and at the position of the United Russia party, which I head, and then decide.”

看俄罗斯两位领导人的政权交替很有启发性，如果问题停留在2012年德米特里•梅德韦杰夫任期结束后谁来竞选总统，那就更有意思了。9月11日，褐色皮肤、肌肉健硕的弗拉基米尔•普京在外国学者和评论家的Valdai俱乐部午餐会上信心满满地向大家保证，“我们会达成协议，我们都理解对方，我们有着共同的血液和共同的政治观点……在做出决定之前，我们会考虑经济和政治因素以及我所领导的统一俄罗斯党的立场。”

It had long been rumored that Mr Putin, now prime minister, might want to return as president. In 2008 he chose not to amend the constitution, which bars more than two consecutive terms, but instead gave the job to Mr Medvedev. Under Mr Medvedev, the terms were extended from four to six years.

坊间早有传言现任总理普京先生希望重登总统之位。2008年，他并未选择修改禁止超过连续两届总统任期的宪法，而是选择了梅德韦杰夫先生作为继任者。后者将每届总统任期从4年延长到了6年。

The response from Mr Medvedev was woollier than the barbed (and carefully prepared) words of Mr Putin. At another lunch with the same group on September 15th, the suave if somewhat bloodless president first made a lame joke about blood groups. Then he mused “How am I to answer this question? … Some time ago I didn’t want to run for the presidency, but fate has intervened, so I am not making any forecasts for myself.” But he added that he was not ruling anything out. The possibility that he might not run again had been hinted at already by his main economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, who said at yet another lunch that he had two-and-a-half years left to implement reforms.

梅德韦杰夫先生对普京先生的言论所作的回应并非尖酸刻薄而是精心准备的含糊其辞。9月15日，在同Valdai俱乐部的另一场午餐会上，老于世故（或者有些无精打采）的俄罗斯总统首先讲了个有关血型的蹩脚笑话，而后自言自语，“我该怎么回答这个问题？……以前我没想过竞选总统，但命运站了出来，所以我现在不会对自己做任何预测。”但他同时也表示不排除一切可能。然而，他的首席经济顾问阿卡迪•德沃尔高域早就暗示过他可能不会竞选连任，前者在另一场Valdai俱乐部午餐会上表示梅德韦杰夫先生只剩2年半时间来推行改革了。

That there are tensions between the two political leaders was suggested not just by the jousting over 2012. Mr Medvedev also pointedly said that he saw and spoke to Mr Putin “less than some people think—maybe once a week.” And Mr Putin himself drew an analogy with Britain’s Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, noting caustically that “when my friend Tony Blair retired, Gordon Brown immediately became prime minister. Did the British people participate in this? No.” He may have missed the irony that Mr Blair and Mr Brown were a famously dysfunctional pair in British politics.

两位政治领袖间的紧张关系不仅表现在2012年的角逐上。梅德韦杰夫先生同时也已有所指的说他和普京先生会面和谈话的次数“比有些人想的要少，可能是每周一次。”而普京先生将两人的关系与英国的托尼•布莱尔和戈登•布朗做了类比，挖苦的说“我的朋友托尼•布莱尔刚退休戈登•布朗就做了首相，英国人民参与了吗？没有。”但他可能没有提及布莱尔先生和布朗先生在英国政坛那具有讽刺意味的有名的关系紧张。

It seems clear that it will be Mr Putin, not Mr Medvedev, who will take the final decision. And if he does run in 2012, he may do so again in 2018, serving until 2024. That might seem an eternity, but Mr Putin would be only just over 70—younger than his good friend Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister of Italy, is today.

很明显，最后做定决的将是普京先生，而不是梅德韦杰夫先生。如果前者2012年竞选总统，那在2018年他同样会竞选连任，这样就会一直待到2024年。这看起来就是终身制了，但那时的普京也只有70岁出头，比他的好友、意大利总理西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼现在的岁数还要小。