Hopes for political change in Guinea may be disappointed
几内亚政治改革的希望可能幻灭

Coup leader Moussa Dadis Camara has suggested that, despite previous indications, he may after all contest the country’s presidential polls. The international community is unlikely to welcome such a development, but Guinea’s political stability will remain fragile whoever wins.

政变领导人Moussa Dadis Camara上尉已经暗示，否认先前的谈话内容，他不排除参加几内亚总统大选的可能性。国际社会虽不可能欢迎上述情势发展，但无论是谁赢得大选，几内亚的政治稳定仍将十分脆弱。

Moussa Dadis Camara, who led the December 2008 coup that followed the death of Guinea’s long-standing head of state, Lansana Conté, has suggested that he may after all stand in forthcoming presidential polls. Captain Camara had previously stated that he would oversee a short democratic transition, and then hand over power to a civilian administration.

长期领导几内亚的国家元首Lansana Conté在2008年12月不幸去世后，Moussa Dadis Camara立即率领军人发动政变，他已经暗示自己还是不会在即将到来的总统大选缺席。Camara上尉过去曾表示，他只会监督短暂的民主过渡期，然后将政权转交给文人政府。

Captain Camara’s candidacy has yet to be confirmed, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the military might not be prepared to relinquish power so soon. For one thing, there is Captain Camara’s conviction that there is work still to be done. He insists that he considers it his mission to rid the country of corruption and the drugs trade, two phenomena that he believes–not unreasonably–to be closely related. Thus the military regime is expected to dismantle the elaborate patronage networks that supported Mr Conté’s rule and to continue efforts to curb the flourishing drug trade, which is believed to have involved most of Mr Conté’s inner circle in recent years. However, this process will take time, and may well be used as an argument to prolong the rule of Captain Camara and the ruling Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement (CNDD). Such manoeuvring might explain the emergence of a pro-CNDD movement in August. Known as the Mouvement Dadis Dois Rester–Dadis Must Stay–it is said to be composed of “young people” anxious to see Captain Camara complete his job.

Camara上尉的候选人资格虽然尚未被确认，但是有许多理由相信这位军人不可能会准备如此快地放弃政权。原因之一，Camara上尉的政治信念，还有很多任务尚待完成。Camara上尉坚决主张，扫除国内的贪污腐败和毒品交易是他责无旁贷的任务，他相信这两大乱象之间紧密勾结──并非全无道理。因此，军政府被期待去拔除曾暗地支持Lansana Conté执政的复杂人脉网络，并继续努力控制日益兴盛的毒品交易，外界深信最近几年Lansana Conté的大部分亲信都涉及毒品交易。然而，这个扫黑和扫毒过程旷日废时，可能必须有一套论述去延长Camara上尉的执政和执政党国家民主暨发展委员会（CNDD）的统治。上述谋略可以解释八月间出现了一项支持国家民主暨发展委员会运动的出现，这项名为「达迪斯必须留任」（Mouvement Dadis Dois Rester）的运动据说由「年轻人」组成，他们急于想要看见Camara上尉完成他的任务。

A second factor concerns divisions within the CNDD itself. Captain Camara continues to surround himself with loyalists such as General Sékouba Konaté, the minister of defence. General Konaté is said to have a moderating influence on the CNDD, but there is also a hard-line faction represented by the increasingly influential Captain Claude Pivi, the minister for presidential security, whose troops have been acting on their own. Internal tensions in the CNDD or the desire to seize back power by the previous military leadership could lead to a counter-coup and a change in leadership, or could be used as another argument for Captain Camara retaining power (so as to preserve national stability).

第二项因素，出在国家民主暨发展委员会（CNDD）本身内部的分裂。Camara上尉持续让效忠前总统的国防部长Sékouba Konaté将军等人围绕在他的身边。据说Sékouba Konaté将军对于国家民主暨发展委员会CNDD的影响力逐渐降低，但是另有一支强硬路线派系，由影响力与日俱增的总统安全部长Claude Pivi上尉代表，他的部队向来独立行动。国家民主暨发展委员会的内部紧张局势，或者前军方领导班子想要夺回政权，皆可能引起一场推翻政变的行动并造成领导班子换人，或者可能被拿来成为Camara上尉继续掌权（以维护国家稳定）的另一种论述。

Finally, the conditions to have credible presidential and parliamentary elections do not exist as yet. The holding of both legislative and presidential polls could therefore be delayed by logistical and administrative problems, including lack of funding and a deficient voter register. Substantial delays could cause social unrest, prompting the relatively powerful unions to take to the streets to demand a return to constitutional rule, for example. Social unrest could also arise owing to the deteriorating economic climate, and this could be met by force by the CNDD.

最后一项因素，令人民信任的总统大选和国会改选的发生条件尚不存在。因此，国会和总统大选的投票日期很可能因准备不及和行政问题而推迟，包括缺乏资金和选民登记不完整。推迟过久可能引起社会动乱，例如催化更具实力的工会走上街道要求回归宪政统治。社会动乱亦可能因恶化的经济气候而升高，国家民主暨发展委员会最后可能要动用武力对付。

Clearly, any postponement of the polls will be opposed by the international community, with serious implications for Guinea’s economy–the new government is already facing severe financial difficulties following the freezing of donor disbursements. However, any solution to such a political stalemate will have to come from the West African region–notably Guinea’s immediate neighbours–and regional grouping Ecowas (the Economic Community of West African States).

很显然地，大选投票日的任何顺延将招致国际社会投票的反对，随着几内亚经济出现严重警讯──新政府在冻结捐赠国付款之后已经面临严重的财政困难。但是，任何解决此一政治僵持的方法必须由西非地区自行处理──尤其是几内亚的邻国──和西非国家经济共同体（Ecowas）区域集团。

Unfortunately, even if free and fair elections are held and a democratic administration established, the country’s political instability is unlikely to end. Guinea has no experience of democratic rule since independence, and the establishment of a new regime is likely to generate widespread expectations of a rapid improvement in living standards that it will struggle to fulfill. Moreover, disputes are likely to erupt between the presidency and the fractious National Assembly over the distribution of executive powers. Even if the members of the CNDD decide not to take part in elections, they may try to continue exerting political influence by supporting political parties. It seems highly unlikely, therefore that the election of a new president–whether Captain Camara or another candidate–will lead to a rapid improvement in Guinea’s political situation.

不幸的是，即使举行自由和公平的选举并建立民主政府，几内亚的政治动荡仍不会结束。几内亚自宣布独立后，迄今仍没有民主统治的经验，而新政体的建立很可能产生普遍期待生活标准迅速提升，这需要努力去达成。再者，总统与强势的国会之间可能因行政权分配不当而发生纠纷。即使国家民主暨发展委员会（CNDD）的成员决定不参加选举，他们可能试图藉由支持其它政党而持续发挥政治影响力。因此，新任总统──无论Camara上尉或其它候选人──的当选会使几内亚政治局势迅速改善，似乎不太可能。