Economist Intelligence Unit Briefing
经济学人智库简报

Uncertainty in the year ahead
未来一年的不确定因素

Jul 28th 2009
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

China‘s economy should grow by 8% this year and next, but significant risks remain
中国经济在今明两年应该会增长8％，但是重大风险依然存在

The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its economic forecasts for China in 2009-10, and now believes that the country will achieve 8% GDP growth in both years. With real GDP growth having reached 7.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2009, China already appears on course to achieve the government’s aim of 8% average growth this year. However, growth in 2010 remains subject to significant upside and downside risks. The outlook is obscured by the dominant role that government policy is set to play next year, and by the high degree of uncertainty with regard to the outlook for the global economy.

经济学人智库（The Economist Intelligence Unit）调整了中国2009及2010年的经济增长预期，现在相信中国这两年GDP增长都会达到8％。随着2009年二季度真实GDP增长率达到7.9％，中国看似已经在通往年度目标8％的既定轨道上了。然而，2010年的增长率依然取决于重大的上行和下行风险。中国经济前景并不明朗，因为两个重要因素——中国政府明年将要采取的政策和全球经济前景都不确定。

Our forecast for next year reflects an assumption that the government will tighten credit and fiscal policy moderately. Such an approach would be likely to have negative side-effects. Asset-price inflation will be stimulated by a credit and fiscal policy stance that will be kept loose to offset the effects of the weak global economy on the export sector. Several local governments in China will face growing fiscal strains that may require the central government to bail them out. China’s fiscal deficit in 2009-10 will in any case be larger than at any point since the start of the reform era in 1979. Coupled with this, the banking sector will face a tough challenge. If economic growth is not to slow sharply in 2010, credit will have to continue to grow strongly. Yet coming after the extraordinary rise in lending seen in 2009, a further massive expansion of credit would increase the threat of loans turning bad and of a future banking-sector crisis. Such a crisis would require another recapitalisation effort by the central government, putting additional strain on China’s public finances.

我们对于明年的预期是基于政府实施适度从紧的信贷和财政政策的假设。然而这样的政策也可能有负面作用。由于世界经济疲软，中国出口受到很大冲击。为减少这些影响，中国实施了宽松的信贷和财政政策，但是这些政策可能会引起资产泡沫。一些地方政府面临过度增长的财政压力，这可能需要中央政府对其救援。中国2009年到2010年的财政赤字将达到1979年改革开放以来的顶点。除了这些之外，银行部门也面临巨大的挑战。如果经济增长在2010年不显著放缓，信贷会继续强劲增长。然而在2009年信贷已经非常大额增长之后，继续大规模的信贷增长可能会导致不良信贷增加，从而为以后银行危机埋下祸根。而如果出现那样的银行危机，中央政府必然还要进行另一次资本重组，这给中国公共财政带来相当大的额外负担。

Should the costs of the government’s policies become too high (for example if consumer price inflation were to accelerate), or should China’s tendency towards fiscal conservatism reassert itself (perhaps as the central government sought to enforce its authority over provincial leaders), our forecast for 2010 could prove optimistic. A sharper tightening of policy would see infrastructure spending slow and could bring to an early end the recovery in housing investment. The loss of business confidence and the adverse effects of such measures on the job market would undermine private-sector investment and consumer confidence, and GDP growth in the year would be likely to fall below the forecast level of 8%. However, for this very reason the government will be reluctant to adopt such an approach.

也许中国政府政策会付出高昂的代价（例如可能导致通货膨胀加速），抑或中国会转向其一再声称的财政保守主义（例如中央政府要加强其对各省的领导权威），但是我们对中国经济的预测还是比较乐观的。从紧的财政政策会导致基础设施建设支出放缓，从而将房地产投资的复苏过早地终结。商业信心的丧失以及对劳动力就业市场的不良影响都会损害私人部门投资和以及消费者信心，那么GDP增长就会低于8％的预期。然而，由于这极端的原因，政府很不愿意去采取上述政策。

It is also possible that GDP growth in 2010 could be higher than we forecast. The strength of housing and car sales in the second quarter of 2009 suggests consumer confidence has recovered more quickly than expected. In addition, with domestic demand in 2009 proving much stronger than most analysts had forecast, especially in key industries such as automotive manufacturing, many companies are already operating at full capacity and are planning to increase investment. This is creating a positive cycle of employment generation and demand growth, which if sustained in 2010 could offset a slight tightening of policy by the government. It is also possible that the external picture may prove less gloomy than we currently expect. This would provide a substantial boost to China’s economy as the export sector revived. However, if the upside risk scenario for economic growth becomes a reality, businesses in China are likely to see considerable cost pressures re-emerge, with land and wage costs accelerating quickly.

当然，2010中国GDP的增长率也许高于我们的预期。2009年二季度房地产和汽车销量的强劲势头表明消费者信心比预计恢复的更快。另外，2009年中国国内需求比绝大多数分析师预计的要多，特别是在一些关键领域，例如汽车制造行业，许多工厂都在加足马力全力生产，而且还准备进一步增加投资扩产。这会给就业市场和需求增长都带来良性循环，如果2010年这些情况持续，会略微降低从紧货币政策带来的负面影响。还有一种情况就是：也许外部环境没有我们现在预计的那么黯淡。如果出口可以恢复，那么将会给中国经济带来强劲的动力。然而，如果这些经济上升因素都得以实现，中国商业运营成本大大增加的局面也会重现，土地和工资成本都会快速上升。