Argentina’s mid-term election
阿根廷中期选举

The glass empties for the Kirchners
虚位以待

Jun 18th 2009 | BUENOS AIRES
From The Economist print edition

Recession and political mistakes by the first couple point to a change in the balance of power. But will Argentina at last acquire a more coherent opposition?
经济衰退和第一夫妇犯下的政治错误共同指向了权利结构的洗牌。但阿根廷最终是否可以得到一个更加团结的反对派呢？

UNTIL about three months ago, as the southern-hemisphere summer drew to a close, Argentines had expected an autumn of relative calm. Then President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who governs with her husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner (pictured above), suddenly decided to bring forward to June 28th a mid-term legislative election that was not due until October. The switch prompted a flurry of fund-raising from across the political spectrum. “This time there’s a chance of a return on any investment,” says Nicolás Ducoté, a political analyst. After six years in which the Kirchners have had Argentine politics in their grip, change is in the now-wintry air.
差不多三个月前，南半球夏意将尽，阿根廷人期盼一个相对平静的秋天。但是与自己的丈夫、前总统基什内尔共同执政的克里斯蒂娜总统突然宣布将原定于10月份的立法会中期选举提前到6月28日。这一改变立时使政治界刮起一阵募款旋风。“这一次任何投资都有机会取得回报，”政治评论员Nicolás Ducoté说。在基什内尔夫妇统管阿根廷政治6年之后，改革随着凛冽的冬风飘然而至。

Polls suggest that the first couple will lose their majority in the lower house of Congress, where half the seats are up for election. Mr Kirchner, who is standing in Buenos Aires province is neck-and-neck with Francisco de Narváez, a businessman who heads a dissident group within the ruling Peronist movement. Mr Kirchner will be elected, but a failure to beat Mr de Narváez to the top of the poll in the province, home to 40% of the electorate and of the rustbelt suburbs that have been his main base, would be a humiliation.
民意调查显示第一夫妇将失去在国会下议院的多数席位。基什内尔将参加布宜诺斯艾利斯省的选举，其主要对手是一位商人Francisco de Narváez，他是庇隆运动阵线中一个异见团体的领导人。基什内尔应该可以获选，但是如果未能击败Francisco de Narváez从而取得选举的胜利这对基什内尔来说将是一个耻辱，因为全国40%的选民来自布宜诺斯艾利斯省，并且该省多个铁锈地带郊区一直以来都是基什内尔的大本营。

During Mr Kirchner’s presidential term, from 2003 to 2007, things went well. Spurred by high world prices for Argentina’s farm exports, the economy swiftly recovered from its collapse of 2001-02. Mr Kirchner’s brutal debt restructuring helped at first (but the later failure to tie up the loose ends has not). The opposition was fragmented: Mr Kirchner blamed the collapse on the policies of Carlos Menem, the president in the 1990s and leader of the Peronist right, and the Radicals were discredited by having failed to prevent it when in power. In 2007 Ms Fernández was easily elected with 45% of the vote.
在基什内尔任内，2003年到2007年，万事顺利。阿根廷的农产品以高价格出口到全球各地，刺激该国经济从2001-02年的经济崩溃中快速恢复。基什内尔野蛮的债务重组行为在一开始起到了效果（但他其后未能处理好细节，未能帮助经济恢复）。反对派四分五裂：基什内尔将经济崩溃归咎于Carlos Menem（上世纪90年代的总统及右翼庇隆主义领导人）的错误政策，激进派因当政时未能阻止经济崩溃而不再受信任。在2007年克里斯蒂娜以45%的得票轻松当选。

Hopes that she would be more moderate than her abrasive husband were quickly dashed. Having tried to raise taxes on agricultural exports to extortionate levels, she turned the resulting dispute with angry farmers into a trial of strength which she lost. She seems to share her husband’s antipathy to private business, nationalising an airline and criticising Techint, a big steel-products group. Meanwhile, the global recession hit Argentina’s economy.
人们本希望克里斯蒂娜会比她令人恼怒的丈夫温和一点，但是愿望很快落空了。她试图将农业出口税调至“敲诈般”的高度，愤怒的农民提出抗议，克里斯蒂娜想借此试探谁的力量更强一点，结果她输了。克里斯蒂娜将一个航空公司国有化并批评大型钢产品集团Techint，她似乎继承了丈夫对私有经济的反感。同时，全球经济衰退的浪潮也侵袭阿根廷。

The Kirchners’ decision to turn the election into a plebiscite on their economic policies looks ham-fisted, since two-thirds of respondents now disapprove of these, according to Poliarquía, a pollster. Although export prices are improving and there are signs that the recession may be relatively short, unemployment could be Mr Kirchner’s undoing. In some suburbs of Buenos Aires it has climbed to 17%; in such places over 40% of people are now poor, the highest figure since 2002. Crime, another worry, has risen under the Kirchners, although it is still low compared with many other South American countries.
基什内尔夫妇欲将这次选举作为对他们经济政策的一次投票，这一策略看起来似乎有点愚蠢，因为根据调查公司Poliarquía的数据三分之二的受访者对其经济政策表示不赞同。尽管出口价格仍然在好转而且有迹象表明衰退将短期内结束。失业率可能是基什内尔失败之处，在布宜诺斯艾利斯的某些铁锈地带郊区，失业率提升至17%，在这些地区，有超过40%的人民处于贫困线以下，这时自2002以来该数字的新高。另一个忧虑，犯罪，尽管与很多其他南美国家相比仍然较低，但在基什内尔夫妇执政期间一直有所提高。

All this has made Ms Fernández unpopular and galvanised the private sector, the Peronist right and the opposition in a campaign that has largely been free of policy debate and packed with dirty tricks. Mr de Narváez has drawn on his own fortune in his battle to beat Mr Kirchner, plastering Buenos Aires province with bus-sized posters of himself.

这使得克里斯蒂娜的支持率不高，促使拉票时不再有私营经济、右翼庇隆主义者和反对派大部分的政策辩论，而是充斥着肮脏伎俩。Narváez拿出他的所有财产来与基什内尔进行比拼，布宜诺斯艾利斯现在到处粘贴着他巴士大小的海报。

Mr Kirchner, who heads the Peronist movement, has resorted to artifice. He has tarted up his list of candidates with some 40 mayors and the province’s governor, even though few are likely to take up congressional seats. He has used the presidential helicopter for many campaign trips. Many Argentines see his hand in an attempt by a much-questioned judge to link Mr de Narváez to a suspected smuggler (although there is no direct evidence of that).
作为庇隆运动阵线的领导人，基什内尔也耍了一些技巧。他将40位市长以及本省省长加入自己的参选名单，尽管其中仅有几位是有意愿成为议会议员的。他多次将总统的直升飞机用于自己的拉票活动。很多阿根廷人知道他插手让一位保守质疑的法官将de Narváez 与一位走私嫌疑犯联系在一起（尽管对此没有直接证据证明）。

Nowadays the Kirchners have few friends in the media. They are mercilessly pilloried on “Gran Cuñada”, a satirical campaign version of “Big Brother”. Mr de Narváez owns a newspaper and a television channel. But he has also quietly built a political base, organising grass-roots discussion groups in the aftermath of the 2001-02 economic crisis.
现在基什内尔夫妇在媒体界已经没有几个朋友了。在“老大”的一个拉票讽刺版“Gran Cuñada”中，夫妇两人被残忍的戴上颈手枷。de Narváez拥有一份报纸和一个电视台。他悄悄的在培植自己的政治基础，组织基层民众对01-02年经济危机的后果进行讨论。

Since he was born in Colombia, Mr de Narváez is barred from ever running for president. But thanks partly to his efforts, power looks likely to swing back towards the Peronist right. The Radical party still suffers from splits and a shortage of cash, although its leaders hope this month’s vote will mark the start of their recuperation. A poor result for the Kirchners would mean that the presidential poll in two years’ time would be wide open. And depending on Ms Fernández’s reaction, it could usher in either more business-friendly economic policies, or two years of rising confrontation.
因为生于哥伦比亚，de Narváez是禁止参选总统的。但是部分因为他的努力，权利似乎向右翼庇隆主义者回转。激进党仍然受分裂及资金缺乏的拖累，尽管该党的领导人希望本月的选举将代表该党东山再起。若基什内尔夫妇取得糟糕的成绩则意味着两年后的总统选举大家都有机会。是商业良好发展的两年，还是对抗不断升级的两年，这取决于克里斯蒂娜如何应对。