Enlarging the European Union
欧盟东扩
Chicken or Kiev?
“鸡脯”还是基辅
May 29th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日
《经济学人》印刷版
The European Union must not abandon its most successful policy when it comes to Ukraine
对待乌克兰，欧盟不能摒弃其最成功的策略
IT IS, quite simply, the European Union’s greatest achievement. The offer of EU membership to its neighbours in the east and south has proved a masterly way of stabilising troubled countries and inducing them to make democratic and liberal reforms. The contrast with the United States, which despite spending billions of dollars has failed to find an equivalent policy for the countries of the Caribbean rim, is striking.
简而言之，这项政策是欧盟最大的成就。欧盟邀请其东南部邻国加入其中被证明是明智之举，该政策稳定了那些多难之邦，并引导它们进行了民主和自由的变革。而与此形成鲜明对照的是，美国尽管已斥资数十亿美元，力图寻求类似的策略来针对环加勒比海国家，却收效甚微。
Enlargement is, however, unpopular in many older EU members. It is accused by some of making the club unwieldy. Others blame it for an unwelcome inflow of cheap labour and an outflow of jobs. Still others complain that too many countries have been let in before they were ready. Indeed, the recent wave of EU enlargement has precious few defenders in Western Europe. Even fewer stand up for the principle of letting in anyone else: France is poised to confirm that any big country’s membership must be put to a national referendum.
然而，欧盟的东扩对于许多老牌欧盟国家而言，却不得人心。一些人指 责它使得欧盟这个团体臃肿不堪，难以运作。另外一些人则将不受欢迎的廉价劳动力的涌入和工作岗位的流失也归咎到它身上。更有甚者抱怨许多国家尚未准备便被 吸纳进来。诚然，在西欧，支持最近一轮欧盟东扩者寥寥无几。而为吸纳新会员这一政策挺身而出者就更是少之又少了。法国准备发表声明，任何实力雄厚的新成员 国的加入必须诉诸国民公决。
Yet scare stories about enlargement have led to false alarms. Several studies confirm that the club functions as well with 25 (now 27) members as it did with 15. Cheap labour helps hosts as well as new members. Fears of job losses and rising competition have more to do with China than eastern Europe. The economies of several old EU members, notably Germany and Austria, have gained massively from enlargement—making their hostility especially perverse. As our special report this week argues, far from joining too soon, most of eastern Europe arrived in the nick of time.
媒体关于东扩的恐慌报道引发人们虚惊一场。数项研究证实，拥有25个 （目前27个）成员国的欧盟运作起来和当初拥有15个成员国时一样灵活。廉价的劳动力即帮助了东道主，又惠及了新成员。失业的恐惧和日益激烈的竞争似乎更 多来自中国，而非东欧。一些老牌欧盟成员国的经济，尤其是德国和奥地利，在此次东扩中获利颇丰-使得他们对待新成员国的所表现出来的敌意更加不通情理。正 如本周的特别报道指出，许多东欧国家的加入恰逢其时，远非仓促草率。
This is not to say that enlargement has been trouble-free. Some countries may have come in unprepared, notably Bulgaria and Romania. The EU mistakenly guaranteed these two, plus Cyprus, a membership date in advance, instantly losing leverage for more reforms (or, in Cyprus’s case, for a deal with the north of the island). The eurocrats have learnt that, once a country is in, they have less influence on it. But less is not none. Bulgaria and Romania now face sanctions for failing to fight hard enough against corruption and organised crime.
这并不是说此次扩张百利而无一害。有些国家可能未加准备就加入进来，比如保加利 亚和罗马尼亚。欧盟错误地提前做出承诺，在一定期限内给予了加上塞浦路斯在内的这三个国家成员国资格。此举立即导致更多的改革(或者，就塞浦路斯而言，同 分岛而治的“北塞浦路斯”达成协议)难以为继。欧洲的巨头们吸取了教训，认识到一旦一个国家加入进来，他们的影响将大打折扣。但是影响变弱并不等于毫无影 响。保加利亚和罗马尼亚因未能采取足够严厉的措施来打击腐败和组织犯罪正面临着制裁。
Catching a Ukrainian wave
搭上乌克兰这班车
In any case, teething troubles with a few new members should not become an excuse for slamming the door on others. It is right for the EU to be tough in negotiating entry terms, as it is being with Croatia and Turkey, the two countries now engaged in membership talks, even if that causes delay. But to suggest that these places, or others such as the western Balkan countries, should be kept out indefinitely, regardless of their progress with reform, risks provoking instability or even downright hostility from places smack on the EU’s borders.
无论如何，吸纳几个新 的成员国所产生的问题不应当成为将其他国家拒之门外的理由。对欧盟来说，在谈判加入事项时应当严格把关实乃正确之举，正如对待克罗地亚和土耳其。虽然严格 把关可能延迟这些国家的加入，但是目前克罗地亚和土耳其已经就加入欧盟问题进行了磋商。但是如果提出永远将这些地区，或者其它地区诸如西巴尔干地区的国家 拒之门外，而不顾其改革所取之成果， 那么将会引发不稳定因素甚至在一些同欧盟接壤的边境地区滋生敌意和事端。
In reality, the case for eventual EU membership of the western Balkan countries is widely understood. Turkey is more controversial, as a big and mainly Muslim country—but it is sui generis. In many ways the bigger test of the EU’s commitment to enlargement lies to its east, in countries like Moldova and, above all, Ukraine. Ukraine matters: it is the largest European country after Russia, with around 46m people, a lot of fertile farmland and significant industrial capacity, including in large aircraft and steelmaking.
事实上，欧盟就最终接纳西巴尔干国家为成员国达成了广泛的共识。土耳其因为是一个穆斯林大 国，则略受争议，但它的地位是独一无二的。在许多方面欧盟东扩的努力面临的更大挑战来自东部国家，譬如摩尔多瓦，以及最重要的，乌克兰。乌克兰极其重要： 它在欧洲是仅次于俄罗斯的第二大国，人口4600万，有着广袤的良田沃野，其工业生产能力不可小觑，包括大型飞机的制造和炼钢业。
The recent story of Ukraine seems, at first blush, depressing. The country’s political leaders have been squabbling among themselves almost since the heady “orange revolution” in the Kiev snow during the winter of 2004-05 (see article). Inflation is worryingly high and corruption is rife. Yet some encouragement can be found behind the headlines. The country’s political chaos and its vigorous media are testimony to a healthy democratic debate. Although Ukraine has no oil or gas, its economy has been growing strongly. It has just joined the World Trade Organisation, ahead of Russia.
初步看来，乌克兰近况堪忧。自04-05年冬天 “橙色革命”席卷基辅以来，该国的政治领导人内部一直争论不休。通货膨胀居高不下，令人担忧，同时腐败盛行。然而，在这些见诸报纸头条的事件背后，我们仍 然能够找到一些慰藉。乌克兰混乱的政治格局和活跃的媒体证明在该国，关于民主的辩论仍然富于活力。尽管乌克兰无油无汽，它的经济发展迅猛，并刚刚加入了 WTO，早俄国一步。
Nobody could pretend that Ukraine is ready for membership of the EU. That could take a decade or more. But it would be wrong permanently to bar it as a candidate. It is as much a part of Europe as Bulgaria, and arguably more so than Turkey. Although many Ukrainians have doubts about joining NATO, almost all—even in the Russian-speaking east of the country—want to get into the EU. If Ukraine were kept out, it could easily fall back under the sway of a newly resurgent Russia; and the knock-on effects for other vulnerable places, such as Georgia and Moldova, could be serious. If, on the contrary, it were welcomed as a candidate, that would hugely encourage liberals who hope to bring proper democracy to Russia as well. It is high time that western Europe’s political leaders began explaining to their voters just why both past and future enlargement of the EU is so much in their own interests.
没有人能掩饰说乌克兰已经蓄势待发，加入欧盟。这一过程需要十年或更久，但是把乌克兰 永远拒之门外将是错误之举。乌克兰是欧洲的重要组成部分，正如保加利亚，或者略带争议地说，乌克兰比土耳其更重要。尽管许多乌克兰人对本国加入北约持怀疑 态度，但几乎所有人，甚至在该国东部以俄语为主的地区，都希望加入欧盟。如果乌克兰吃了闭门羹，它将很容易退回到从前，受制于新崛起的俄罗斯。由此在更多 岌岌可危的地区引发连锁反应，譬如格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦，后果将十分严重。如果，反过来，乌克兰被接纳为候选成员国，这也将极大地鼓舞那些希望在俄国推进适 合俄罗斯民主的自由主义者。目前，形势刻不容缓。西欧的领导人应当开始向其选民解释为什么欧盟的扩张，在过去，在将来，都将和他们自身利益攸关。
译者：vincent1986 http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11818&page=1