Unemployment in Spain
西班牙的失业率
Not working
“休假在家”
May 7th 2009 | MADRID
From The Economist print edition
Spain is experiencing Europe’s worst unemployment problem
西班牙正在经历欧洲最严重的失业问题

THE huge signs are up in town squares, city parks and myriad spots where men in overalls dig holes, lay pavements or spruce up public facilities. They proclaim that the work is being paid for by Plan E, the stimulus package pushed through by Spain’s Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. This included euro 8 billion ($11 billion) for immediate spending by town halls.

大批的西班牙人在市中心广场、城市公园和形形色色的类似场所找到了自己的“用武之地”，在那些地方，人们都在挖坑、铺路，或是“妆扮”公共设施。所有的这些工作的薪金据称都是由E计划来支付的。E计划是由西班牙社会主义者总理José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero所大力推崇并通过的经济刺激方案，其中包括各个市政厅8百万欧元的即时开销。

Plan E was meant to keep Spaniards working. Yet the latest unemployment figures show that it is not enough. In April 40,000 more people joined the dole queues. That was a slower rise than in previous months, but it still leaves Spain with a 17.4% unemployment rate, the highest in the European Union and twice the EU average. The European Commission predicts that unemployment will hit 20.5% next year. It also says Spain will struggle longer than other countries to recover, getting into positive growth only in 2011, a full year after the EU as a whole. “The sick man of Europe” was how the pro-government El País newspaper greeted the news.

E计划旨为让西班牙人有活可干，然而最新的失业数据显示其力度还远远不够。4月份，超过4万的人们加入了救济大军的队伍，虽然其增长速度相比以前的月份已经有所减缓，但失业率仍为17.4%之高，为欧盟平均水平的两倍多，成了欧洲联盟国中失业率最高的国家。欧盟委员会预测说，来年其失业率将飙升至20.5%，将比其他国家跋涉更久才能看到复苏的曙光，于2011年即整个欧盟都进入正增长一整年后方可步入正增长。支持政府的El País 报纸以“欧洲病夫”的标题报道了这一消息。

Perhaps the most worrying thing is that Plan E has, in part, worked. The government says it has created some 280,000 jobs, even if few are permanent. The effect is temporary, said Pablo Vázquez of the Foundation for Applied Economic Studies. In August and September unemployment may climb again. Spain is lucky that strong social networks (helped by the black economy) help to prevent civil unrest.

或许最让人头疼的事情是E计划已经部分生效。政府宣称，它已经创造出了多达28万的岗位——即使很少有永久的工作。应用经济研究基金会的Pablo Vázquez说，这样的效果只是暂时的。八月和九月，失业率将会再次上升。西班牙（被非法经济所支撑的）坚实的社会网帮助其防止了市民动乱，从这一点上来说，西班牙又是幸运的。

The economy is in a double bind. It has been engulfed, like the rest of the world, by recession and shrinking global trade. To this is added Spain’s own particular crisis, as a model based on cheap labour and a dizzy property market hits the skids. Economists say that Spain must now make the sacrifices and take the tough decisions that it avoided during the long boom years.

西班牙经济已经陷入了双重束缚。它已经像世界其他国家一样被经济衰退和全球贸易萎缩所吞没。而它自身的基于廉价劳动力和正在走下坡路的疲软的房地产市场的经济模式又为其平添忧色。经济学家说，西班牙现在必须做出一些牺牲以及它曾在繁荣时期一直避免的艰难决定。

Labour-market reform is perhaps the toughest of all. In some ways Spain’s labour laws are quite flexible. With almost a third of the workforce on temporary contracts, marginal workers are easy to shed by the simple expedient of not renewing contracts. That explains why Spain accounts for over half the additional unemployment within the euro area in the past year. The rest of the workforce is on Teflon-coated permanent contracts that make people difficult and expensive to sack. Companies inevitably choose staff to shed on the basis of how easy they are to fire.

而这其中最难的或许就是劳动力市场的改革，虽然从某些方面来讲，西班牙的劳动法还是比较灵活的。因其近三分之一的劳力都是短期合同工，简单的采取不续签合同的方法即可导致这些边缘工人的流失，这就很好的诠释了为什么西班牙在过去的一年里占据了欧洲新增失业人员的一半以上，而剩下的那半劳力由于有抹了特弗伦涂层的长期合同的庇护而使得解雇变得困难且昂贵，而公司必然会捡软柿子来捏，选择牺牲那些易于解雇的员工。

Almost everyone favours reform. Such an initiative is urgently needed, with the government leading it, said a group of 95 academic economists in a letter. Mr Zapatero, however, does not share their sense of urgency. And labour-market reforms are not all that he is shying away from. The Bank of Spain recently issued a warning about a dwindling pension pot, suggesting it was time to push the retirement age above 65. Liberalisation of services provided by everyone from notaries and lawyers to veterinarians would help the recovery, said José Carlos Diez of Intermoney, a consultancy. “Whenever we have had a liberalisation plan, the economy has shown its potential for growth,” he added.

由95位专业的经济学家组成的小组在一封信里说道：几乎人人都偏爱改革。对这种主动性的需求非常迫切，应由政府积极引导。然而Zapatero先生并不认同他们的这种急迫感。他也不那么避讳谈及劳动力市场的改革。西班牙央行近来发布了关于养老金罐逐步减少的警告，提议说是时候将退休年龄推到65岁以后了。来自Intermoney咨询公司的José Carlos Diez说，从公证员和律师到兽医的自由化服务的提供将会对就业复原有所帮助，每当我们实施了自由化的计划，经济就会显示潜在增长的势头。

So why does Mr Zapatero not reform? Besides all the usual worries about strikes, trade unions and public support, his main problem lies in parliament. Last month his minority government lost its first parliamentary vote. Although the Socialists are only seven seats short of an absolute majority, they are struggling to find allies. Basque nationalist deputies are angry that a Socialist, Patxi Lopez, has just become their region’s premier. Catalan nationalists are similarly tired of the Socialist-led administration in their region. A fractious group of left-wing parties is not always reliable and unlikely to back tough reforms.

那么为什么Zapatero先生不发起改革呢？除了来自罢工、工会和公众支持这些惯常的担忧外，他的主要问题在于国会方面。上个月他的少数党政府丧失了第一国会投票权，尽管社会主义者只差7个席位即可变为绝对多数党派，但是他们仍然很难拉到联盟，巴斯克（Basque）的民族主义代表们对于社会主义者Patxi Lopez刚刚担任他们地区的首领出离的愤怒，而加泰罗尼亚（Catalan）的民族主义者也同样对他们地区社会主义者领导的政权失去了耐心。一群急躁的左翼党派往往不可信赖也不可能支撑起艰巨的改革事业。

That leaves the main opposition, the conservative People’s Party, which now leads in the opinion polls. Some Spaniards would like to see the two big parties push a reform agenda through together. Things will have to get much worse before they are ready to do that.

这使正在进行民意测试的保守的人民党成了最主要的反对者。很多西班牙人更希望看到两大党派通过共同的努力来推出一项改革的议程，而在这之前，事情将不得不变得更糟。

《经济学人》（The Economist ( http://www.economist.com ))
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Jolin117: http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=19194&extra=page%3D1