[2009.4.16] One winner, many losers 一人功成万骨枯

Indonesia’s election results
印尼大选结果

One winner, many losers
一人功成万骨枯

 

Apr 16th 2009 | JAKARTA
From The Economist print edition

The president on course for re-election
总统连任指日可待

IN THE week after Indonesia’s parliamentary election on April 9th, the much-criticised election commission tabulated less than 7.5% of the estimated 123m votes cast. But five independent “quick counts”, based on samples of several thousand polling stations, produced almost identical results. So no surprises are expected.

4月9日举行的印尼议会选举结束一周后，饱受批评的选举委员会完成计票量只占了总共1.23亿张投下的选票中的不到7.5%。但是基于来自数千所投票站的样本的五家独立的“快速计票”却得出了几乎相同的结果。因此冷门是等不来了。

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is the undoubted winner. His Democratic Party almost tripled its vote from the last election in 2004 to take first place among the 38 contesting parties with a preliminary 20.5%. Golkar, led by Jusuf Kalla, the vice-president, and the largest party in the old parliament, is one big loser, with 14.5% (down from 21.6%). So is the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, of Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president, also with 14.5% (18.3%).

苏西洛总统是毫无疑问的赢家。他领导的民主党的得票数几乎是上次2004年大选时的三倍，并以初步统计的20.5%的得票率在38个参选党派中脱颖而出。原议会第一大党，副总统优素福领导的印尼专业集团党，成为了最大的输家，该党仅获得14.5%的选票（上次大选该党得票率为21.6%）。前总统梅加瓦蒂夫人领导的反对党印尼民主斗争党也一败涂地，仅获得14.5%的选票（上次大选为18.3%）。

A cluster of Islamist parties saw their combined support slump from 39% to 29.5%. Only the Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS, the most Islamist party, which came fourth with about 8.4%, bucked the trend. Nine parties appear to have passed the threshold of 2.5% of the national vote needed to win seats in the 560-member parliament. These include two new parties, Gerindra (4.5%) and Hanura (3.8%). Their leaders are former generals, respectively Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto.

一群伊斯兰主义政党的总支持率也从39%下滑到29.5%。只有最高举伊斯兰主义大旗的繁荣正义党逆潮流而动，以8.4%的得票率位居第四。九个政党的得票率看起来超过了在总共560个席位的国家议会中赢得议席所需的2.5%的底线。它们包括两个新建的政党，Gerindra 党(得票率4.5%) 和Hanura党 (得票率3.8%)。这两个党派分别由均为前军方将领的Prabowo Subianto和Wiranto所领导。

The election was undoubtedly chaotic with more than 1,000 reported electoral violations, twice the number recorded in 2004. But despite loud, if largely baseless, cries of foul by some losers there is little likelihood the result will be nullified.

这场选举无疑是混乱的，其间出现了高达1000多起有报道的选举违规现象，这比2004年大选中记录的数字增加了一倍。但是尽管一些输家大喊作弊——即便这些大都没有根据——选举结果被宣布无效的可能性还是微乎其微。

苏西洛手里抓着所有的牌

It was striking that popular, which usually also means competent, regional officials did well. In at least three of the 33 provinces, the party of the popular governor not only won but did markedly better than elsewhere. Directly elected local officials seem certain to grow in importance as national politicians.

令人吃惊的是，那些受民众欢迎的——这通常也意味着能力出众的——地区官员们都在选举重表现出色。33个省份中，至少在3个省中出现了这样一幕，即该省受人欢迎的省长所在的政党不仅在该省获胜，其得票率更是比在其他省份高得多。直选产生的当地官员们的重要性似乎将肯定不断上升从而使他们成为全国性的政客。

Attention now turns to July’s election for the powerful presidency. Candidates must be nominated by parties, or coalitions of parties, that won more than 20% of the seats or 25% of the popular vote in the parliamentary election. There could be as many as four pairings (the president and vice-president run as a ticket). But it is hard to look beyond Mr Yudhoyono.

现在注意力转移到了七月角逐大权在握的总统宝座的竞选上。候选人们必须获得在议会选举中赢得超过1/5议席或是超过1/4选票的党派或政党联盟的提名。最多可以有4对候选人（总统候选人和副总统候选人捆绑在一起参选）。但是很难忽视苏西洛。

One exit poll of 7,500 voters gave him 42% support, Ms Megawati 13.4%, Mr Prabowo 5.7% and the rest even less. In another poll, conducted in February, Mr Yudhoyono scored 64% to Ms Megawati’s 23% in a head-to-head race.

一项有7500位选民参加的出口民调显示苏西洛的支持率高达42%，而支持梅加瓦蒂夫人和Prabowo先生的人分别只占13.4%和5.7%，至于其他候选人支持率就更低了。另一项二月份进行的民调让选民只在苏西洛和梅加瓦蒂夫人中作出选择，结果显示苏西洛的支持率高达64%，梅加瓦蒂夫人只有23%。

Mr Yudhoyono’s dilemma is his choice of running mate. He has indicated he wants a strong parliamentary base and so Mr Kalla is the most obvious choice. But Golkar is deeply divided and Mr Kalla’s enemies have been energised by the party’s poor showing. PKS is lobbying hard for the vice-presidency but might cost the secular Mr Yudhoyono votes and should be satisfied with a few cabinet seats. Mr Yudhoyono is expected to make his choice once Golkar has finished its bloodletting.

苏西洛的困境在于竞选伙伴的选择。他已经暗示他想要一个强有力的议会基础，所以优素福是最明显的选择。但是印尼专业集团党内部分歧严重而优素福的敌人们在看到该党在议会选举中的糟糕表现后一下子来了精神。繁荣正义党竭力游说希望得到副总统之职，但与该党合作会让苏西洛失去一部分世俗选民的选票，另外繁荣正义党若能得到一些内阁中的职位也应该知足了。预计苏西洛会在印尼专业集团党解决内讧后再作出决定。

If Golkar sticks with Mr Yudhoyono, his opponents face an uphill struggle. The appeal of Ms Megawati, whom My Yudhoyono trounced in 2004, is waning but no other PDI-P figure has a remotely similar stature. Her best chance of unseating Mr Yudhoyono may be to swallow her considerable pride and join a Prabowo ticket. But most analysts reckon that, whatever the pairings, only a huge unforeseen scandal can halt the Yudhoyono juggernaut.

如果印尼专业集团党继续跟随苏西洛，他的对手们将面临十分困难的境地。2004年大选中被苏西洛完胜的梅加瓦蒂夫人影响力正日趋衰落，但是印尼民主斗争党内却没有其他人能与她的地位相提并论。要想把苏西洛赶下台，她最好的机会便是放下身段与Prabowo结成一对候选人。但是大多数分析人士都承认无论竞选组合如何改变，只有一场还未进入人们视线的巨大丑闻才能阻止苏西洛巨神前进的脚步。

 

译者/premiermao:  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=18672&extra=page%3D1