[2009.03.05] In need of some snake-blood 蛇血之渴

Vietnam’s economy

In need of some snake-blood
蛇血之渴

Mar 5th 2009 | HO CHI MINH CITY
From The Economist print edition

A rescue plan for exporters
出口业者救助方案

BUSINESS is booming for at least one Vietnamese entrepreneur: an old lady in a traditional conical hat whose tiny roadside stall faces the infant Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange. To make her wares she decapitates small green snakes with a pair of scissors and drains the blood into a plastic bottle. Many Vietnamese men believe that drinking snake-blood enhances both good fortune and sexual prowess. The vendor, who also peddles pet turtles, says she is selling more of the stuff these days. “People are so worried about the future.”

至少对于一位越南商人而言，生意蒸蒸日上：这位头戴斗笠的老妇将她的路边小摊位设在初创未久的胡志明证券交易所对面。她制造商品的过程便是将小青蛇的头部剪掉，之后将蛇血引入一个塑料瓶中。许多越南男子相信饮用蛇血既能带来好运，又能壮阳。据这位同时还出售宠物龟的摊主说，近日来蛇血的销量增加，因为“人们对未来忧心忡忡”。

The global slowdown is casting a lengthening shadow over Vietnam’s once-booming export-driven economy. Sales of more conventional consumer goods have slumped as the fast-growing middle class has stopped spending. Electronics shops say that Tet new-year holiday sales were down by as much as 50% compared with last year. The carmakers’ trade association reports that sales tumbled by 68% year-on-year in January.

全球经济减速正在给越南这个一度兴旺的出口驱动型经济体笼罩上长长的阴影。由于快速增长的中产阶级停止了消费，更多的传统型消费品销量大跌。电子类商店反映越南新年假期中它们的销量与去年同期相比缩水了50%。而汽车制造商同业公会则公布1月份汽车销量同比下降68%。

Like China, Vietnam has used manufacturing for export to transform a stale, closed economy. Last year it overheated. The government earned some plaudits for calming rampant inflation, which reached a year-on-year peak of 28% in August. But Vietnam is badly exposed to the sharp drop in demand in the West. Exports fell by 5.1% year-on-year in the first two months of 2009, with electronic goods down by 13.7% and shoes by 7.3%.

与中国一样，越南也利用出口制造业对僵化而封闭的经济进行转型。去年经济出现过热，政府因为控制住了在八月份曾一度达到同比28%这一峰值的剧烈通货膨胀而赢得过一些喝彩。而如今越南却得面对西方国家需求骤降这一严重局面。2009年前两个月，出口额同比下降5.1%，其中电子类产品出口下降13.7%，鞋类出口下降7.3%。

That is why government is now trying to relight the fire it had previously doused. It plans to boost spending this year by 23% (almost 100 trillion dong, or $6 billion, about 6% of GDP). Of this about $1 billion will subsidise loans to cash-strapped exporters. In the scheme’s first month, commercial banks lent some 93 trillion dong, says the central bank.

这也就解释了为何政府试图令余烬重燃。它计划将本年度的财政支出扩大23%，（接近100万亿越南盾，合60亿美元，约占国内生产总值的6%）其中约10亿美元将用于向那些资金紧张的出口商提供贷款补贴。根据中央银行的说法，在计划的头一个月里，商业银行放出约93万亿越南盾的贷款。

An estimated 500,000 workers lost their jobs last year, and the government reckons a further 400,000 may be laid off in 2009. These are daunting numbers in a young country that needs 1m new jobs every year to absorb its growing workforce, now around 45m people. Like China, Vietnam does not have much of a state social-safety net. Laid-off factory workers tend to return to the countryside and rely on their extended families. But farmers will find it harder to cope without the money factory workers have been sending home. The prices of their produce, such as rice and coffee, have been falling.

据估测，去年已有五十万工人失业，政府预测在2009年还将有四十万人下岗。对于一个每年需新增一百万个就业岗位以吸收不断增长的、已达到四千五百万的就业大军的年轻国家而言，这些数据十分可怕。与中国一样，越南也缺乏国家社会保障体系。被解雇的工厂员工往往选择返回农村老家，依赖大家庭维持生计。但失去了往日工人寄回家中的资金后，农民们也觉得日子更不好过了。诸如大米和咖啡等农产品的价格一路走低。

Many economists believe that what Vietnam, like China, needs are not measures to sustain supply but incentives to increase domestic demand: investment in infrastructure, but also in health care and education, saving for which suppresses consumer spending. Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 6.2% in 2008, the slowest rate for nine years. Most observers, including the IMF, think it will be lucky to reach 5% this year. Yet the government’s target is still 6.5% and Nguyen Tan Dung, the prime minister, has predicted that the economy will start to pick up as early as May. As weeks go by, that makes him sound more like a seller of snake-oil than of snake-blood.

许多经济学家认为越南与中国一样，需要的并不是保持供给的措施，而是要设法刺激内需的增长：除了基础设施投资外，还要在医疗卫生以及教育方面投入资金，民众正是因为后两者的顾虑而选择将钱存入银行，而不是送到商家手中。2008年越南国内生产总值增长了6.2%，这是9年来的最低值。而包括国际货币基金组织在内的大部分观察家都认为今年若能增长5%就已经算是幸运的了。但越南政府的目标仍然定在6.5%，总理阮晋勇预测最早从五月份起，经济就能回暖。但随着时间的推移，这一论断听上去使他更像是一个蛇油小贩，而不是能为大家带来蛇血的人。
Lilywizardry译文编号003

译者/lilywizardry： http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=17722&extra=&page=1