[2009.3.10] Pulp friction 纸浆争端

Argentina and Uruguay
阿根廷与乌拉圭

Pulp friction
纸浆争端

Mar 10th 2009
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Tensions on the border between Argentina and Uruguay
阿根廷-乌拉圭边境的紧张形势

Uruguay and Argentina have argued over a huge new cellulose mill on the Uruguayan side of the river that divides the two countries since late 2006. Now, an industrial accident—a gaseous explosion in the piping of the polemical Botnia plant in Fray Bento, Uruguay on February 27th—has fuelled the dispute anew.

自从2006年年底以来，乌拉圭与阿根廷就位处边境河乌拉圭一案的大型新建纸浆厂争执不休。现在，一起工业事故 — 2月27日，博特尼亚（Botnia）公司设在乌拉圭弗莱本托斯市（Fray Bento）的好生争端的工厂的管道发生气体爆炸 — 再度扇起争端。

No victims were reported but the explosion was heard throughout the town and across the river in Argentina, and a foul odour covered the plant’s immediate surroundings. Company officials say the accident will have no environmental impact. Yet Argentinian environmentalists who have tried to derail the Finnish investment project for three years will now have new ammunition.

没有出现人员伤亡的报告，但是整个城镇以及河对岸的阿根廷都能听到爆炸声，同时，离工厂最近的周边区域都被臭气缠绕。公司高层称此事故不会对环境造成不良影响。然而，3年来一度试图将这家芬兰的投资项目排挤出去的阿根廷环保人士现在又将有新的弹药。

Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has ordered studies of waters near the plant to detect the possible presence of contaminants. However, Uruguay’s government is unlikely to take any action to impede pulp production at the US$1.1bn plant, which is the largest foreign investment ever in the country. The facility is proving to be a successful export-, income- and job-creating machine, critical during an electoral year and the current tough economic times.

阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜•费尔南德斯•德基什内尔 ( Cristina Fernández de Kirchner )已经下令对工厂附近的水域进行研究，以检测可能出现的污染因子。然而，乌拉圭政府不太可能采取任何行动阻碍这家投资11亿美金的、乌拉圭史上最大的一项境外投资工厂的纸浆生产。事实证明，这项设施是一台成功的创出口、创收入以及增加就业岗位的机器，在一个选举的年份以及当前经济困难时期，这十分重要。

Green concerns
环境考虑

The explosion occurred on Botnia’s transfer line for weak malodorous gases when the mill was started up after a 48-hour maintenance shutdown. The shutdown was aimed at creating efficiencies as the plant was already operating at its maximum capacity of 3,000 tonnes of cellulose paste per day. Directly after the incident, Botnia released a report explaining that the explosion was owed to a build-up of gases in the piping and that their release would have no effect on the environment or human health. Most nearby residents were not convinced, however, and have expressed concern that such an incident has happened so soon—a little over a year after the plant was opened.

此次爆炸发生在这家博特尼亚工厂的恶臭气体传输管线上，当时正值该纸浆厂经过48小时维护性关闭之后的重启之时。鉴于该工厂一直处于每天生产3000吨粘胶纤维的最高生产能力下运行，关闭工厂的目的在于提高生产效率。就在事故发生之后，博特尼亚公司立即发布了一篇公告，解释此次爆炸发生的原因是传输管道内气体的积聚，并且称爆炸不会对环境或者人类健康造成影响。不过，附近多数的居民并不相信，并且对这种事故发生得如此之快表示担忧 — 仅在工厂建成后的一年多点。

Long before the Botnia pulp mill went on line in November 2007, it had created a stir among environmentalists. Militant groups in the Argentinian border town of Gualeguaychú took to the streets repeatedly to cut traffic on the San Martín bridge connecting Uruguay and Argentina. They claimed that the industry would pollute the Uruguay River, the natural border between Uruguay and Argentina, and harm the local tourism industry. The construction of the plant was stalled by the protests and has since created a rift between the two governments. Bilateral tension was exacerbated when Argentina’s government refused to stop the protesters from blocking the bridge, which Uruguay claims violates the statutes of Mercosur, the southern cone customs union.

在这家博特尼亚纸浆制造厂于2007年11月投产之前很久，就已经在环保人士中间制造了一次混乱。阿根廷边境城镇瓜列哇伊丘（Gualeguaychú）的激进团体频繁走上街道切断联通阿根廷与乌拉圭的圣马丁大桥（San Martín bridge）上的交通。他们称，纸浆工业会对乌拉圭与阿根廷之间的天然边界 — 乌拉圭河（Uruguay River）造成污染，而且还会影响当地的旅游业。这家工厂的建设曾因为抗议而搁置，而且从那之后就给两国政府之间制造了一条裂缝。当阿根廷政府拒绝阻止抗议者阻断圣马丁桥交通之时，双边的紧张气氛近一步加剧，乌拉圭称阿根廷政府这一举措违背了南锥体关税联盟（Mercosur）的规定。

The conflict was brought to the International Court of Justice at The Hague, which in July 2006 ruled in favour of the plant’s construction, saying that it posed no imminent or irreversible environmental threat to the Uruguay River. A study by the World Bank also found insufficient reason to halt the construction, so it approved a US$170m loan for Botnia. Despite the rulings in favour of Uruguay, the Argentinian protests and blockades continued. In January 2007, the International Court supported the Argentinian blockades by arguing that they did not create a risk or irreparable damage to the Uruguayan economy. Since the last ruling, Botnia has been operating at maximum capacity and Argentinian environmentalists have continued to take to the streets, though with less support from the increasingly unpopular Fernández administration.

那场纷争被诉诸于荷兰海牙的国际法庭（International Court of Justice），在2006年7月份国际法庭判决支持工厂的建设，表示该工厂对乌拉圭河不造成即将引致的或者不可逆转的环境威胁。世界银行（World Bank）进行的一项研究也没有找到充分的理由来阻止建设施工的进行，所以它为博特尼亚公司批准了1.7亿美金的贷款。尽管国际法庭的判决站在了乌拉圭一方，但是阿根廷的抗议以及阻断桥梁的活动依旧继续。在2007年1月，国际法庭对阿根廷的抗议及阻断活动给予支持，争辩说这些抗议及阻断活动并没有对乌拉圭经济造成威胁或者不可逆转的损失。自从国际法庭的最后一次裁决之后，博特尼亚公司就一直以最大生产能力进行运作，同时阿根廷环保人士也持续着走上街头抗议 — 尽管越来越不受欢迎的费尔南德斯政府给予的支持度降低。

The administration remains concerned about the environmental impact of the plant on the river and Argentinian border towns, but argues publicly that a solution to the problem will best be found through politics rather than protests. Since the recent explosion, there has been no official contact between Uruguay and Argentina. On March 5th, however, Ms Fernández took unilateral action by initiating the inspections of the water surrounding the plant, and ordered her minister of justice and security, Aníbal Fernández, to fly over the scene together with Navy officials in order to ensure the extraction of samples.

政府依旧关注工厂对乌拉圭河以及阿根廷边境城镇的环境造成的不良影响，但是却公开争辩说，解决这个问题的方法最好是通过政治的方式寻得，而非抗议。自从近期的爆炸事故发生之后，乌拉圭和阿根廷之间就没有过正式的接触。然而在3月5日，费尔南德斯总统采取单方面行动，开始了对工厂周围水源进行调查，同时还命令其司法及安全部长阿尼瓦尔•费尔南德斯（Aníbal Fernández）同海军官员一道飞越事发地区以确保样本的采集。

Ms Fernández has also ordered satellite photos to be taken to monitor a stain in the river water that appeared a few days after the explosion. If the water is found to be contaminated, the government claims it will take the evidence to The Hague. In the meantime, ten representatives of the Environmental Assembly of Gualeguaychú met with Argentina’s environmental minister, Homero Bibiloni, to express concern about the explosion and the water stain.

费尔南德斯女士已经下令拍摄卫星照片以监察爆炸发生几日后河水出现的污染点。阿根廷政府宣称，如果发现河水受到污染，将把证据提交给海牙的国际法庭。同时，10名瓜呖圭立丘的环境代表大会同阿根廷环境部长赫米罗•比比罗尼（Homero Bibiloni）举行会谈，表示他们对此次爆炸事件及河面的污点的担忧。

The Botnia effect
博特尼亚效应

At an estimated 11% in 2008, Uruguay’s economic growth rate was the highest in Latin America. This extraordinary growth was partly due to strong expansion in agricultural output and partly the result of the opening of the Botnia mill, which has not only directly benefited the economy but indirectly as well by encouraging growth in the related forestry and logistics industries. Manufacturing growth is estimated to have reached 18% year on year last year, and services growth (including logistics sectors such as transport and communications) is estimated to have been 19.1%.

2008年，乌拉圭经济增长率估计值为11%，是拉丁美洲增长率最高的国家。这一出色的经济增长部分缘于农业产出的强劲增长，另一部分源自于这家博特尼亚纸浆厂的投产：不仅使经济直接受益，而且还间接推动了与之相关的林业和物流行业的增长。去年制造业估计同比增长18%（包括诸如交通及通讯等物流环节），同时，服务行业则估计同比增长19.1%。

Since it commenced production in November 2007, the plant has produced 1.2m tonnes of cellulose paste, with 34 shipments completed to Europe and 16 to Asia from Uruguay’s new US$23.7m terminal at Palmira Port. At present, the plant directly employs 1,000 and is expected to increase that number to 2,500 as it grows.

自从博特尼亚纸浆厂于2007年11月投产以来，该工厂已经生产了120万吨粘胶纤维，其中从乌拉圭在帕尔米拉港投资2370万美金新建的货运终端向欧洲发货34批，对亚洲发货16批。目前，该纸浆厂直接雇佣员工1000人，同时随着工厂的不断发展成长，预计将增加直接雇佣人数至2500人。

Botnia owns and operates five pulp mills, four in Finland and one in Uruguay, its largest. The global pulp industry has been hit hard of late, with international prices down by 40% since the start of the financial crisis. Botnia company executives, however, have publicly reaffirmed their commitment to the Uruguayan facility as it remains profitable despite the drop in prices. Indeed, the Botnia plant is proving to be an exception to the general downturn in manufacturing that Uruguay is facing in light of the international crisis.

博特尼亚公司拥有并经营着5个纸浆加工厂，其中4家在芬兰，另一家也即最大的就是乌拉圭的这家。全球纸浆业近来受到重创，从金融危机开始，国际纸浆价格下滑了40%。然而博特尼亚公司的主管们一再公开确定其保持乌拉圭纸浆厂的运作，因为即使是在价格下滑的情况下，这家工厂仍然保持着盈利。实际上，全球经济危机下乌拉圭的制造业普遍下滑，而博特尼亚的这家工厂则被证实是个例外。

According to figures from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE, the National Statistics Institute), manufacturing production fell by 5.8% year on year in November, and grew by just 2.8% in December, down from the double-digit rates recorded in eight of the previous ten months. This was due in large part to the Botnia mill closing operations for two weeks to reduce inventory built up as a result of falling global demand. However, the plant has been operational since.

根据乌克兰国家统计局的数据，去年11月乌拉圭的工业生产总值同比下滑5.8%，12月份仅仅增长了2.8%，而此前的10个月中有8个月都保持以两位数增长。大部分是由于博特尼亚纸浆厂为了降低因为全球需求下滑而积压的存货而关闭营业了两周的缘故。然而，从那之后工厂就一直在运作。

Vote of confidence
信心之票

As a vote of confidence for its expanding pulp industry, Uruguay’s government, led by President Tabaré Vázquez, has announced that it will provide US$6m to local governments to improve transportation for the logging industry.

为增加其不断扩张的纸浆业的信心，由总统塔瓦雷•巴斯克斯（Tabaré Vázquez）领导的乌拉圭政府已经宣布，将为当地政府提供600万美金以改善伐木业的交通状况。

Botnia will not be the only beneficiary. A Spanish cellulose pulp manufacturer, ENCE, is holding talks with four companies in an attempt to find a partner to complete construction of its cellulose mill in Conchillas, Colonia. It scaled down construction owing to concerns over global demand, but is keen to restart and finish construction of what would be a similar-sized plant to Botnia’s. A third mega cellulose plant, from a Portuguese firm, Portucel, has permission to start construction, but this is expected to be delayed until 2010 at the earliest, owing to tight international financing conditions and concerns over global demand in 2009-10.

博特尼亚公司将不会是唯一的受益者。一家叫做ENCE的西班牙粘胶纤维制造商正同四家公司进行会谈，以期寻得一个合作伙伴来完成其在科科洛尼亚省Conchillas镇的纸浆加工厂的建筑施工。出于对全球市场需求的担忧，ENCE公司缩小了施工面积，但是这家公司仍旧迫切地希望重启并完成施工。施工完成之后，这将达到博特尼亚工厂的类似规模。第三大纸浆加工厂是由一家叫做Portucel的葡萄牙公司开办的，该厂以获准动工，但是由于国际融资状况紧张，加之考虑到2009-10年度的全球需求状况，预计施工最早也得拖至2010年开始。

Meanwhile, after the economy’s stellar double-digit rate of growth in 2008, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the rate will plummet this year and be essentially flat (with GDP contracting by a slight 0.2%). A stronger contraction is possible, owing to lower export prices and slumping domestic and international demand. In this context, the government will want to continue to encourage pulp making and exports in order to bring in foreign reserves, strengthen local industry and keep people employed.

与此同时，在2008年乌拉圭经济令人瞩目的两位数增长率之后，经济学人信息部预测乌拉圭今年的经济增长率将骤跌，而且基本上会跌至零点（GDP将小幅收缩0.2%）。由于出口价格更低以及国内国际需求的不断下滑，经济更强劲收缩的可能性是存在的。在这种背景下，乌拉圭政府会希望继续鼓励纸浆的制造以及出口行业，以求增加外汇储备、巩固地方工业以及确保就业。

译者/chirsshou   http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=17824